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Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis - Politics - Nairaland

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Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by tempest01(m): 2:38pm On Mar 29, 2015
There are two conditions to win according to the constitution.


1. Get the most votes in the elections
2. Get 25% of the votes in at least 2/3 states (which i have interpreted to be 24 states) including the FCT.



Lets say Buhari has the most number of votes........Lets analyze

From the results coming in, both candidates have surpassed the 25% mark in the FCT, so it wont be added in the permutation.
From clause 2, If the candidate with the highest vote fails to achieve 25% in more than twelve (12) states, he loses.

States Buhari might not meet clause 2 in

1. Imo 2. Abia 3. Anambra 4. Ebonyi 5. Rivers 6. Bayelsa 7. Delta 8. Enugu 9.Cross Rivers 10. Akwaibom 11. Edo


Losing out one more state, calls for a re-run.


Disclamer: INEC is yet to declare any official results. All data represented here and permutations done here are strictly my views, use the information at your own risk. Opinions are welcome.

http://9jastates.com/viewtopic.php?f=45&t=16&p=28#p28









Missy89:
You are really bad at math and do not understand simple interpretation

You listed 11 states out of 36. which means there are 25 states left and the 25% requirement is for 24 states.

so what are you saying again?

Try and go through a post and understand the subject matter before booking space to reply. read through again and shame yourself

8 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by Elzends(m): 2:41pm On Mar 29, 2015
Disappointment awaits all apc dudes
Ah still dey observe shaa

19 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by Missy89(f): 2:42pm On Mar 29, 2015
You are really bad at math and do not understand simple interpretation

You listed 11 states out of 36. which means there are 25 states left and the 25% requirement is for 24 states.

so what are you saying again?

60 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by cozy7(m): 2:43pm On Mar 29, 2015
Oga, u surprise me.....for d sake of your children's future, I beg u to plz look beyond your nose n say d truth.....Buhari is winning!

30 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by cheruv: 2:44pm On Mar 29, 2015
OP,don't you think those states you listed should secede and become republic of S.Nigeria?

2 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by Mynd44: 2:47pm On Mar 29, 2015
The NW, NE and NC is 19 states. Do you believe Buhari would have less than 30% in any of the Northern states?

He already has 25% in all 6 states of the SW. He is winning 5 of them only lost Ekiti but he still had 40% there

37 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by Nobody: 2:47pm On Mar 29, 2015
Heavy shock na hin we go give apc
Heavy shock
I tell dem say we dhe win
Sai to transformation
Sai to jonathan
Sai to pdp

6 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by Nobody: 2:49pm On Mar 29, 2015
The consolation continues....

5 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by Nobody: 2:51pm On Mar 29, 2015
Missy89:
You are really bad at math and do not understand simple interpretation

You listed 11 states out of 36. which means there are 25 states left and the 25% requirement is for 24 states.

so what are you saying again?

Lol. Ol'boy developed dementia and amnesia overnight. Don't blame him - knockout punches do damage the brain.

Remember when Hasim Rahman knocked Lennox Lewis the fvck out in South Africa. And during the post-bout conference, Lennox Lewis didn't even remember he was knocked the fvck out, hence he lost the fight. grin

Isn't it 36 states + FCT: 19 Northern states, 6 SW states, 6 SS states, and 5 SE states?

So, if he can get 25% in the 19 Northern states and 6 SW states + FCT - that should be sufficient.

Those SE/SS states don't even carry enough votes, anyway. undecided

10 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by stanleyazo(m): 2:54pm On Mar 29, 2015
Unbiased Analyst keep your analysis to yourself...

Regards
INEC

#GMB all the way!

17 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by midolian(m): 2:55pm On Mar 29, 2015
OREMUSSANCTUS:
Heavy shock na hin we go give apc
Heavy shock
I tell dem say we dhe win
Sai to transformation
Sai to jonathan
Sai to pdp
grin grin grin

PDP has lost my frnd...by tomao evening, relocate to the nearest hospital where best you can wait to hear the final announcement from INEC...cos its gonna be a shocker. And hmmm...

10 Likes 1 Share

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by DahtzFestjayz: 2:56pm On Mar 29, 2015
Mr. Analyst, If He Win con commot am. Sai Buhari all the Way

9 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by Missy89(f): 2:58pm On Mar 29, 2015
Shymexx1:


Lol. Ol'boy developed dementia and amnesia overnight. Don't blame him - knockout punches do damage the brain.

Remember when Hasim Rahman knocked Lennox Lewis the fvck out in South Africa. And during the post-bout conference, Lennox Lewis didn't even remember he was knocked the fvck out, hence he lost the fight. grin

Isn't it 36 states + FCT: 19 Northern states, 6 SW states, 6 SS states, and 5 SE states?

So, if he can get 25% in the 19 Northern states and 6 SW states + FCT - that should be sufficient.

Those SE/SS states don't even carry enough votes, anyway. undecided

PDP goons are high!

SS and SE are very quiet. They are still cooking the books. The good news is that they dont have sufficient numbers even if they give GEJ 100%. As it stands, both of them will get the 25% from at least 24 states, and the popular votes will be the deciding factor.

Still watching in 3D

12 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by ChinemeOkpan: 3:03pm On Mar 29, 2015
Missy89:


PDP goons are high!

SS and SE are very quiet. They are still cooking the books. The good news is that they dont have sufficient numbers even if they give GEJ 100%. As it stands, both of them will get the 25% from at least 24 states, and the popular votes will be the deciding factor.

Still watching in 3D

TANoids are usually dumb.

Like you said, they are waiting for all the numbers in the other regions before they release the results.

The only way PDP can win is for them to claim that Buhari received less than 5% in the whole of the SS and SE

5 Likes 1 Share

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by Nobody: 3:05pm On Mar 29, 2015
tempest01:
There are two conditions to win according to the constitution.


1. Get the most votes in the elections
2. Get 25% of the votes in at least 2/3 states (which i have interpreted to be 24 states) including the FCT.



Lets say Buhari has the most number of votes........Lets analyze

From the results coming in, both candidates have surpassed the 25% mark in the FCT, so it wont be added in the permutation.
From clause 2, If the candidate with the highest vote fails to achieve 25% in twelve (12) states, he loses.

States Buhari might not meet clause 2 in

1. Imo 2. Abia 3. Anambra 4. Ebonyi 5. Rivers 6. Bayelsa 7. Delta 8. Enugu 9.Cross Rivers 10. Akwaibom 11. Edo


Losing out one more state, calls for a re-run.


Disclamer: INEC is yet to declare any official results. All data represented here and permutations done here are strictly my views, use the information at your own risk. Opinions are welcome.

http://9jastates.com/viewtopic.php?f=45&t=16&p=28#p28

First, assuming he doesn't get 25% in these states, not getting same in one more state still means he will have 25/37. That's still more than 2/3rd.

In any case, there is no state left that he won't get 25% and pls take out Edo, he got more than 25% there already.

6 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by Nobody: 3:06pm On Mar 29, 2015
Missy89:

PDP goons are high!

SS and SE are very quiet. They are still cooking the books. The good news is that they dont have sufficient numbers even if they give GEJ 100%. As it stands, both of them will get the 25% from at least 24 states, and the popular votes will be the deciding factor.

Still watching in 3D

Lol. But I doubt GEJ will get 25% in 24 states. He should get 25% in all the Southern states (including Yoruba states) - 17 states. However, the projection in NC isn't too pretty, especially in Kwara. And I don't see him getting 25% in those core Northern states. The BH axis shocked the hell out of me with their voting pattern lol. How are those folks daring all the bombs and savagely/cowardly beasts to cast their votes?

Nigeria is somewhat lopsided towards the North - and I believe one of those core Northern regions has a whopping 34% of the electorates (that's like SE and SS combined). So no matter what happens in those two regions - with SW and NC tilting towards APC - they won't have enough.

It looks like they'll either annul the election, and forge some re-run in there. Just be safe out there, and if you haven't got a bunker in ya house, probably get yourself closer to where the US high-commission/embassy is out there, for ya own safety. The US marines are close-by for all eventualities.

3 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by Nobody: 3:11pm On Mar 29, 2015
midolian:
grin grin grin

PDP has lost my frnd...by tomao evening, relocate to the nearest hospital where best you can wait to hear the final announcement from INEC...cos its gonna be a shocker. And hmmm...
ogbenni, pdp has won d election, if ya rely on propaganda results ya go shock
Better wake up from sleep!
Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by yemi221(m): 3:13pm On Mar 29, 2015
Missy89:


PDP goons are high!

SS and SE are very quiet. They are still cooking the books. The good news is that they dont have sufficient numbers even if they give GEJ 100%. As it stands, both of them will get the 25% from at least 24 states, and the popular votes will be the deciding factor.

Still watching in 3D

let them cook it well. We are waiting.
I just pray they don't inflate figures
Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by vedaxcool(m): 3:14pm On Mar 29, 2015
grin pdp I wonder whether gej will get up to 100,000 vote in nw

1 Like

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by wazobiaforu(m): 3:19pm On Mar 29, 2015
People do not understand that PDP cry now as I do, maybe, they are accepting that GMB will win but trying all rules to make the winning void... lol

3 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by medamillion(m): 3:31pm On Mar 29, 2015
Going by your analysis, you mean Buhari will have less than 25% votes here?
Bauchi
Benue
Borno
Edo
Ekiti
Gombe
Jigawa
Kaduna
Kano
Kogi
Kwara
Lagos
Nasarawa
Niger
Ogun
Ondo
Osun
Oyo
Plateau
Sokoto
Taraba
Yobe
Zamfara
FCT
Kastina

4 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by winniz: 3:48pm On Mar 29, 2015
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Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by gunther6(m): 4:16pm On Mar 29, 2015
Op stop smoking weed... GMB will not get 25% in Edo?.... Joker

2 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by ibisko04: 4:29pm On Mar 29, 2015
Buhari have more than what it takes technically and constitutionally already.
This presidential election is won and lost already.
Let us prepare for the tasks of building the ruins of the land.
Arithmetically, Buhari is wining . Constitutionally , Buhari is wining.
Technically, Buhari is wining.
Jonathan should not allow the people around him to spoil his name.
Jonathan is not a loser in all , as history will write his name as a man who loves his father land and gives all its take for the progress of the land.

3 Likes

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by tomzman: 4:31pm On Mar 29, 2015
winniz:
@OP your analysis is on point, GEJ is winning this election fair and square, for GMB to win this election he needs 25% votes in six of the regions to win.

The ultimate question should be Would GMB to able to pull the required 25% votes in SS/SE to pull through in this election? MY ANSWER IS NO. So how would GMB win the election? grin grin








Go and read the constitution and stop making a fool of yourself. In addition to GMB winning by majority, he also must win 25% in 2/3 of the states in the country. Even a dead man knows Buhari will surely get more than 25% in all the nothern states. You can check your map and count the number of states in the north. When you finish with that, add the 6 states in the southwest to it cos as I type, even the biggest fool in the world knows there's no way Buhari would get anything less than 25% in any of the 6 states. So, can you now see how irrelevant your SS/SE are?
Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by seankay(m): 4:39pm On Mar 29, 2015
GMB will score atleast 45% in Edo

1 Like

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by Burlah4u2c(m): 4:41pm On Mar 29, 2015
Missy89:
You are really bad at math and do not understand simple interpretation

You listed 11 states out of 36. which means there are 25 states left and the 25% requirement is for 24 states.

so what are you saying again?
what op is trying to say is
1. buhari will get less than 25% vote in those 11 states
should he get less than 25% in one more state of the remaining 25 state, the election will be re_runned.
speculations has it that he got more than 25% in all SW state.. buhari on the norm will get more than 25% of votes in each Northern state.. if that is that and he wins by number overall, change is here.

1 Like

Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by ibisko04: 4:41pm On Mar 29, 2015
winniz:
@OP your analysis is on point, GEJ is winning this election fair and square, for GMB to win this election he needs 25% votes in six of the regions to win.

The ultimate question should be Would GMB to able to pull the required 25% votes in SS/SE to pull through in this election? MY ANSWER IS NO. So how would GMB win the election? grin grin.....(
South East plus South South states together is equal to eleven states. Take eleven out of thirty seven. You have twenty six states.
11- 37 is equal to 26.
If at the end of the day, Buhari did not get any vote from the south east and south south. What is on the ground for him is enough to certify him winner technically and constitutionally.
And I don't see why Buhari will not have 25% in at least five states from the south







Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by genearts(m): 4:44pm On Mar 29, 2015
Shymexx1:


Lol. Ol'boy developed dementia and amnesia overnight. Don't blame him - knockout punches do damage the brain.

Remember when Hasim Rahman knocked Lennox Lewis the fvck out in South Africa. And during the post-bout conference, Lennox Lewis didn't even remember he was knocked the fvck out, hence he lost the fight. grin

Buhari will definitely get more than 25% in edo confirmed, imo state probably too.

Isn't it 36 states + FCT: 19 Northern states, 6 SW states, 6 SS states, and 5 SE states?

So, if he can get 25% in the 19 Northern states and 6 SW states + FCT - that should be sufficient.

Those SE/SS states don't even carry enough votes, anyway. undecided
Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by wheesin(m): 5:01pm On Mar 29, 2015
I see Protests, nd violence undecided
Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by rattlesnake(m): 5:02pm On Mar 29, 2015
tempest01:
There are two conditions to win according to the constitution.


1. Get the most votes in the elections
2. Get 25% of the votes in at least 2/3 states (which i have interpreted to be 24 states) including the FCT.



Lets say Buhari has the most number of votes........Lets analyze

From the results coming in, both candidates have surpassed the 25% mark in the FCT, so it wont be added in the permutation.
From clause 2, If the candidate with the highest vote fails to achieve 25% in twelve (12) states, he loses.

States Buhari might not meet clause 2 in ode

1. Imo 2. Abia 3. Anambra 4. Ebonyi 5. Rivers 6. Bayelsa 7. Delta 8. Enugu 9.Cross Rivers 10. Akwaibom 11. Edo


Losing out one more state, calls for a re-run.


Disclamer: INEC is yet to declare any official results. All data represented here and permutations done here are strictly my views, use the information at your own risk. Opinions are welcome.

http://9jastates.com/viewtopic.php?f=45&t=16&p=28#p28
Ode
Re: Buhari might not Win The Just Concluded Elections - Unbiased Analysis by winniz: 5:11pm On Mar 29, 2015
.

1 Like

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