healthcons:
It believe Buhari/APC can achieve these if they can rule for next 16yrs. PDP spend 16yrs in power. Lets try APC for d next 16yrs and see what will happen.

Bevista:
Dear Barcanista,

First and foremost, let me summarize your post on subject matter:

SUMMARY
You estimate rightly, that the APC government will need to spend about N1.5trillion annually to be able to pay N5,000 to 25million unemployed persons.

“We will give N5, 000 to the poorest 25 million over a phased period, if their children are enrolled in school and participate in immunization.

“So we are actually doing two things; we are giving stipends to the very poorest and ensuring that in order to earn that stipend they certify two conditions”, he said.

He further noted that the party decided on the 25 million figure because that is what they can deal with in the first phase, adding that “we are looking at phasing it over a period because it will cost about N1.35 trillion to do so if we do all 25 million at once.

He maintained that, if elected, the programme will be done in batches of 5 million people a year, adding that “depending on resources we can even do more”.

He said the N1.35 trillion they are proposing for the Conditional Cash Transfer Programme’ is not so much compared to the AMCON bailout of “persons who are in debt, many businesses and businessmen and it cost N5.7 trillion to do and that is a bailout of the relatively wealthy”.

rudedough:
[s]Dem don dey deny the advert wey we watch for TV with our korokoro eyes again ooo

Sir with all due respect, go and read the APC manifesto. It was clearly written there, i think in page 5 that they (APC) will pay 25 million people =N=5000. In addition, they also said they will continue paying our NYSC graduates until they're able to secure jobs.

Kindly ask the Fura drinking General to roll up his sleeves and get to work, NO EXCUSES!![/s]

ChinemeOkpan:



Be civil please, that is the President Elect of Nigeria.

Bevista:
Dear Barcanista,

First and foremost, let me summarize your post on subject matter:

SUMMARY
You estimate rightly, that the APC government will need to spend about N1.5trillion annually to be able to pay N5,000 to 25million unemployed persons. You also estimate that the APC government will need to spend about N373billion annually to be able to feed over 35million pupils in our primary schools. Meaning the government will need about N1.9trillion annually to service these Social Programs alone.

You mention rightly that the Federal budget for 2015 is N4.3trillion, with a total recurrent budget of N2.58trillion. You then question where the APC will get the extra N1.9trillion to service those programs.

On The Program for Unemployed
My attention has been drawn to the fact that the APC said that due to the huge cost of funding this program, they will phase it over 5years at 5million persons per year. This, therefore, puts the cost at N250billion per year.

On Feeding Primary School Pupils
Secondly you estimate that there are around 35million pupils enrolled in our primary schools. That figure, definitely includes private and public secondary schools. You can be sure that the government will only focus their program on public primary school pupils which may not account for more than 20million pupils. In this case, the government will only need about N210billion (i.e. using your N10,667/pupil estimate)

So you see, to service both programs, the government will only require about 450billion as against your estimate of N1.9trillion

On The Budget & How To Fund The Social Programs
So, where would the government get this extra money to fund these programs when our total budget is only about N4.3trillion. You will recall that Buhari has said in different fora that he intends to fund his programs from blocking wastages and mismanagement in the system. How does he hope to achieve this?

Now, even by admission of the GEJ government, Nigeria looses about 400k barrels of crude per day through theft/illegal bunkering. At $50/bbl, this translates to $20million/day and around $7.3billion/year. At the current exchange rate of N200/$, this will translate to about N1.46trillion. The federal government share (i.e. 52%) of this figure will be about N760billion.

It might also interest you to note that the NNPC does not remit proceeds of crude oil sales directly to the Federation account until they have finished deciding what to spend and what to remit – thus giving room for all manner of misappropriation and fraud. You can be rest assured that in this government, all sales from crude oil will first and foremost land in the Federation Account and the NNPC will have to present a budget like every other government agency/parastatal. While it is not clear how much can be saved here, I am pretty sure we will be talking about 100s of billions.

The government shall also be more efficient in getting remittances from FIRS, NPA, Nigerian Customs etc to boost government revenue.

So by my estimate, the minimum Nigerian Federal Budget should ideally be in the region of N5.5 – N6trillion annually, thus giving the government enough latitude to do more. I’m sure you will see this starting from the 2016 budget. With a GDP of over $500billion and a population of over 170million, this budget is still too small. To put things in perspective, South Africa has a GDP of about $350billion and a population of about 45million, yet they have an annual budget in excess of N20trillion. Clearly, there are so many loopholes in the Nigerian system, making it difficult to capture most of the accruable revenue to the government.

In summary, I am pretty confident that this government has the credibility and commitment to perform remarkably well. Even if we do not support or trust them, let's atleast give them the benefit of doubt. While I am not a big fan of such Social Programs, I think it is economically feasible.

Yours Truly,
Bevista

cc: lalasticlala
Seun
Obiagelli

lagbaja:
I can't see what is wrong with paying N5000 to 25million unemployed Nigerians so long as they find a way to make it compulsory for the beneficiaries to patronize locally made goods and services. That's simply Keynesian economics, government creates demand which in turn creates a surge in supply by the private sector which in turns create jobs and many chain positive effects on the economy. it works ! Feeding school children with locally produced food will have a similar positive effect on the economy.

ChinemeOkpan:



Be civil please, that is the President Elect of Nigeria.

IbokUtoroh:







bobo ur illustration was making sense till when i reach d part 'nIGERIA LOSES 400K barrels of oil a day', pls lemme educate u on this issue.
nigeria dont lose such quantity as being peddle by the media, what happens is once there is pipeline vandalisation, the company operating such lines shut its valves n thereby causn seizure of crude to the other end. during that time interval the receiving end loses products and also time due to unavailabiity of poducts. in summary the distributing end wont lose any products only that its lines n pipes hv been damage which will need repairs but products distribution has been put on hold cos every pumps hv been lock. u dont lose what u dont pump. the only commodity lost here is TIME, TIME AND TIME.
Or put it dis way u r supplyng water from ur haus to anoda haus thro hose n along the line the hose got bursted by a passing vehicle, will u allow d water to keep wasting while trying to fix the hose?
considering the fact that u r constantly monitoring ur hose n there is someone at the main supply handling the tap?
dont act as if u never went to school, its only a fool that will neglect safety measures while working in an oil rig.
if an only they employ FOOLS!

healthcons:
It believe Buhari/APC can achieve these if they can rule for next 16yrs. PDP spend 16yrs in power. Lets try APC for d next 16yrs and see what will happen.