₦airaland Forum

disloman:
This is what some pple don't understand.JP Morgan is just trying to protect it interest.More devaluation of naira will have negative effects on our economy.We must not be west dummies 4ever.Let's try out of d books methods.Ride on joor.

the only thing I am afraid of is a denial of this report by the government as the case has been so far with this buhari administration. This is a good move and buhari should just follow it through. The road maybe rough initially but later things will take shape

onatisi:
Oga na me oooo.I have always said it that if buhari performs even we his fiercest opponents and critics will have no choice but to applaud and acknowledge his efforts. The most important thing is for Nigeria to be on the right track.

Now this is reasonable opposition. Thumbs up!

I feel sorry for you people who live in Nigeria as, just as I predicted, the unsound economic policies which this new regime encourages will make matters worse for the economy.

What does maintaining the value of the Naira and not devaluing actually entail in practice? It means that imports are cheaper because the Naira has greater purchasing power. At 200 Naira to the dollar, you can import more than if the exchange rate is 240 Naira to the dollar. At a time our export revenue is collapsing, the last thing you need is to maintain your ability to import. For those who say higher inflation, which results from higher import costs, causes job lossess, lets remember that imports also cost jobs.

If the market value of the Naira is collapsing, the only way the CBN can stop the Naira from further depreciation is to use up the foreign reserves or simply allow the parrallel market rate to collapse. This is what we had in the Abacha era and in the first Buhari era. In the former, the official rate was 22 Naira to $1 but the market rate was 85 Naira to $1. Only privileged people will be able to buy dollars and the impact this has on corruption can only be imagined.

No amount of faux patriotism can cover up the fact that the loss of investor confidence will be a disaster for this country. JP Morgan's decision increases capital flight and puts more pressure on the Naira. What a crazy country.

onatisi:
the only thing I am afraid of is a denial of this report by the government as the case has been so far with this buhari administration. This is a good move and buhari should just follow it through. The road maybe rough initially but later things will take shape

4get d denial stuff.We too dey believe all these our-sources-said news.D only news I believe is where officials are mentioned.

Ignorance

The politics of Naira has overtaken economics of naira re-evaluation.

As long as you import everything you consume then even if you have $500bn in reserves sooner or later it will dry up.


The current hoarding of forex by the CBN is already having its effect on industries as they are scaling back on production.

And with this administration not priotizing how to spend the little reservs we have as can be seen by the bailout package he made to those thieving governors the problem is further compounded by this administration not following up on the 2015 budget.

FG projects across the country have been abandoned as Buhari has since halted all contracts awarded by the last administration even those under concessionary agreement like the 2nd Niger Bridge all in the name of probe.

And with no new projects on the offering by this administration one has to wonder were all the FG revenue is being diverted to since we still can't see any upward increase in our foriegn reserves.

[size=18pt]So since the FG is not providing FOREX for businesses through the CBN and is not saving any of the accrued revenue into our external reserves and not funding any infrastructural project it is obvious that money is being diverted.
[/size]
This administration is the most koworpt and inept govt since independence.

4Play:
I feel sorry for you people who live in Nigeria as, just as I predicted, the unsound economic policies which this new regime encourages will make matters worse for the economy.

What does maintaining the value of the Naira and not devaluing actually entail in practice? It means that imports are cheaper because the Naira has greater purchasing power. At 200 Naira to the dollar, you can import more than if the exchange rate is 240 Naira to the dollar. At a time our export revenue is collapsing, the last thing you need is to maintain your ability to import. For those who say higher inflation, which results from higher import costs, causes job lossess, lets remember that imports also cost jobs.

If the market value of the Naira is collapsing, the only way the CBN can stop the Naira from further depreciation is to use up the foreign reserves or simply allow the parrallel market rate to collapse. This is what we had in the Abacha era and in the first Buhari era. In the former, the official rate was 22 Naira to $1 but the market rate was 85 Naira to $1. Only privileged people will be able to buy dollars and the impact this has on corruption can only be imagined.

No amount of faux patriotism can cover up the fact that the loss of investor confidence will be a disaster for this country. JP Morgan's decision increases capital flight and puts more pressure on the Naira. What a crazy country.

The administration is judging its own success in the eyes of its plebs on the value of the naira.

This is why I don't understand what a seasoned technocrat like Emefile is still doing as CBN governo?

Sanusi was no genius but at least he was able to exercise the autonomous authority of the CBN.

The politics of the Naira is above sound economics of the naira evaluation.

This govt is outdated and still existing on west Germany time as it can be seen that they consider the face value of the naira as the only yardstick to success in managing the economy.

If Japan and China and even the US are constantly looking for ways to devalue their currency what is an import based economy like Nigeria waiting for?

courage89:
This is brilliant, epic reply. JP Morgan, hedge funds, bankers, speculators and all these other asset managers cannot be dictating the pace of our economy. We will not be coerce or cajole to take inimical decision at the expense of our own economy.

Wailers and JP Morgan can never see any good in what the CBN is doing.

JP Morgan want greater Nigeria investments for fewer dollars at the expense of the average Nigerian.
In short, they want complete control of the economy via dictate.
How can the FG allow this ?
I mean a responsible FG. I know the previous govt would waste no time devaluing our currency. That's how they roll.

Rather than wail, you need to support a govt who is putting YOU first and not imperialist outsiders. This has rarely happened with past govts. Support your FG.

WombRaiders:
The administration is judging its own success in the eyes of its plebs on the value of the naira.

This is why I don't understand what a seasoned technocrat like Emefile is still doing as CBN governo?

Sanusi was no genius but at least he was able to exercise the autonomous authority of the CBN.

The politics of the Naira is above sound economics of the naira evaluation.

This govt is outdated and still existing on west Germany time as it can be seen that they consider the face value of the naira as the only yardstick to success in managing the economy.

If Japan and China and even the US are constantly looking for ways to devalue their currency what is an import based economy like Nigeria waiting for?

Oga abeg your analysis is totally and absolutely flawed. How can you be comparing usa and Japan with Nigeria?if Japan and china decides to devalue their currency that is because they have enough foreign reserves to withstand any shocks ours is just 30billion while that of china is in trillions of dollars. Secondly have you considered the economic hardship such devaluation will have on ordinary citizens? Nigeria will not follow any orthodox economic policy that will be detrimental to her citizens. If this policy will bring about economic recovery then jp Morgan can go and kiss Obama ass . All we want are policies to stimulate growth but God help buhari and his team if they are wrong because Nigerians will crucify them

onatisi:
Oga abeg your analysis is totally and absolutely flawed. How can you be comparing usa and Japan with Nigeria?if Japan and china decides to devalue their currency that is because they have enough foreign reserves to withstand any shocks ours is just 30billion while that of china is in trillions of dollars. Secondly have you considered the economic hardship such devaluation will have on ordinary citizens? Nigeria will not follow any orthodox economic policy that will be detrimental to her citizens. If this policy will bring about economic recovery then jp Morgan can go and kiss Obama ass . All we want are policies to stimulate growth but God help buhari and his team if they are wrong because Nigerians will crucify them

Firstly, your currency value is predetermined by your ability to back it up with other currencies or precious commodities.

With 160 million and just $30bn in an import based economy like Nigeria sooner or later the forex will crash.

And since you produce virtually nothing for your own consumption needs it goes to show that you will continue to depend on imports.

How then can you pay for imports when your suppliers will not take your currency?

Think.

WombRaiders:
Firstly, your currency value is predetermined by your ability to back it up with other currencies or precious commodities.

With 160 million and just $30bn in an import based economy like Nigeria sooner or later the forex will crash.

And since you produce virtually nothing for your own consumption needs it goes to show that you will continue to depend on imports.

How then can you pay for imports when your suppliers will not take your currency?

Think.

once again your economic policy calls for questioning. Japan,china and USA are exporting and producing countries therefore it makes every economic sense for them to devalue their currency in order to make their products more attractive for buyers now what are we producing in Nigeria that we should devalue our currency?there is no importing nation in this world that will devalue her currency in the present situation and circumstances Nigeria finds herself. If successive government had diversified our economy and raised our production output then we can be talking a different thing here. Devaluation will cause more harm than good

onatisi:
once again your economic policy calls for questioning. Japan,china and USA are exporting and producing countries therefore it makes every economic sense for them to devalue their currency in order to make their products more attractive for buyers now what are we producing in Nigeria that we should devalue our currency?there is no importing nation in this world that will devalue her currency in the present situation and circumstances Nigeria finds herself. If successive government had diversified our economy and raised our production output then we can be talking a different thing here. Devaluation will cause more harm than good

Ok revalue the naira to equal the dollar and see if your reserves won't dry up in one month.

courage89:
CBN head office, Abuja
By Obinna Chima 




PART A1
The official while acknowledging that JP Morgan had raised concerns over liquidity in Nigeria’s currency market, he argued that the joint statement by the finance ministry, CBN and DMO showed that the federal government was not in support of the devaluation of the naira as this would lead to a further spike in inflation and to the export of jobs.

PART A2
He quoted JP Morgan as stating that “foreign investors who track the GBI-EM series continue to face challenges and uncertainty while transacting in the naira due to the lack of a fully functional two-way FX market and limited transparency”.


PART A3
“However, CBN, the finance ministry and DMO made it clear that it introduced an order-based, two-way forex market,
resulting in the stability of the exchange rate in the interbank market over the past seven months and largely eliminated speculators from the market.

PART A3
“The CBN also enhanced transparency by mandating that all forex transactions are posted online on the Reuters trading platform so that all stakeholders could easily verify all transactions in the market.


PART A4
“All this was done to ensure that participants are not allowed to simply trade currencies, speculate against the naira and engage in round-tripping, but are only in the market to fulfill genuine customer demand to pay for eligible imports and other transactions.


PART A5
“Lest we forget, there is a high possibility that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates very soon and with the economic problems in China, foreign portfolio investors will exit the Nigerian economy without a second glance(solid business argument)


PART A5
The presidency official added that another major concern for the federal government was the fuel subsidy regime.


PART A6
“Devaluation at this time will be disastrous because since the fall in the price of crude oil over a year ago, foreign exchange differentials alone today account for almost 50 per cent of the subsidy bill that is paid by the federal government to oil marketers.


PART A7
“So should the CBN devalue, the foreign exchange differential will rise and put more pressure on the government’s finances,” he explained.


PA RT A8
The official added that going back to the two-way quote system demanded by JP Morgan would have adverse consequences on the little foreign reserves Nigeria has, which provide cover for only five months of imports.



http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/-why-fg-is-against-devaluation/219852/

Well there is a communication gap between fg and j.p Morgan/ market watchers.

it is obvious Nigeria needs an economic team!

1,J.p is indicating liquidity issues because of the falling oil crude.
2,portfolio and forex traders watching are expecting the naira to devalue because Nigeria has reduced dollar cash at hand meaning it has to produce more naira or sell its dollar reserve.
3,Nigeria spends a lot of dollars on oil import alone and subsidy is a big problem. So it splits its forex into two(govt oil and imports seperate from other imports),it pushes other imports to a parrallel market
4.Nigeria CBN nows pegs the dollar for its oil imports and leave the parallel market to their fate.
5,the naira falls in the parallel market but the CBN "locks out dollar trade to parallel market".it means no dollar from the govt side.I.e thus CONFIRMS J.P MORGAN LIQUIDITY THEOREM
6.The parallel market cannot "Deal" its Dollar cash because CBN puts a limit and Banks Cannot "deal"
J.p Morgan cannot "deal".
7.it is a "Standstill"

So what next
8,speculations!speculations,speculations!!!

WombRaiders:
The administration is judging its own success in the eyes of its plebs on the value of the naira.

This is why I don't understand what a seasoned technocrat like Emefile is still doing as CBN governo?

Sanusi was no genius but at least he was able to exercise the autonomous authority of the CBN.

The politics of the Naira is above sound economics of the naira evaluation.

This govt is outdated and still existing on west Germany time as it can be seen that they consider the face value of the naira as the only yardstick to success in managing the economy.

If Japan and China and even the US are constantly looking for ways to devalue their currency what is an import based economy like Nigeria waiting for?

Hypocrisy of the highest order, you guys chased Sanusi out because of your beloved GEJ, you now remember some of his good deeds to discredit PMB. You must be an enemy of Nigeria trying to incite the Govt to take a bad decision to justify your hatred for PMB, I have been seeing your posts lately and I must say that you are too hasty in your judgement of this present Govt with your very flawed analysis which many are beginning to fault now.

onatisi:
once again your economic policy calls for questioning. Japan,china and USA are exporting and producing countries therefore it makes every economic sense for them to devalue their currency in order to make their products more attractive for buyers now what are we producing in Nigeria that we should devalue our currency?there is no importing nation in this world that will devalue her currency in the present situation and circumstances Nigeria finds herself. If successive government had diversified our economy and raised our production output then we can be talking a different thing here. Devaluation will cause more harm than good

look at it like this
dollar to buy naira

naira to buy dollar

baralatie:
Well there is a communication gap between fg and j.p Morgan/ market watchers.

it is obvious Nigeria needs an economic team!

Exactly, but JP Morgan already know the implication of a devalued Naira. They just don't care.

You're right, we desperately need people to manage this economy, I'm sure they will emerge soon.

What many here don't realize is that Buhari is not new to this game. During the last time he was heads of state, Nairaland was very strong then, almost like 2nd to the dollar if I'm not wrong, or almost at par with dollar.

The IMF and World Bank then pressured Buhari to devalue the naira and collect IMF loan, both of which he rejected. He even started paying the debts we owned. Nigeria was on the path to greatness. Nigeria was expelled from the World Trade Organization but Buhari didn't change his stand.

Then the coup came. It's no more a secret that western interests played a big part in the overthrow of Buhari. immediately IBB came in, what happened: naira was seriously devalued and we took IMF loans that we could have done without; loans which goes hand in hand with the stupid SAP conditionalities which had ruined every African economy that it was adopted.

We can all see the results today. Nigeria destiny to greatness was aborted when IBB overthrowed Buhari.

Devaluations is good or better for economy that does a lot of exports like China. Nigeria exports almost nothing aside from crude oil. But we import almost everything.

This government is doing what's best for Nigeria. Nigeria will get over the effects of the JP Morgan delisting of it's bonds.

WombRaiders:
Ok revalue the naira to equal the dollar and see if your reserves won't dry up in one month.

no need to revalue or devalue .they should leave the rate as it is for now and work on stopping fuel subsidy which is taking a huge chunk of the nation revenue and plug all leaks in the system.it will take time but the results will be positive

onatisi:
no need to revalue or devalue .they should leave the rate as it is for now and work on stopping fuel subsidy which is taking a huge chunk of the nation revenue and plug all leaks in the system.it will take time but the results will be positive

So you now believe in subsidy removal?

I laff

WombRaiders:
So you now believe in subsidy removal?

I laff

really, you can stop labouring in vain. This administration will not take a wrong decision in order for to fins reasons to crucify it.


Unlike Jonathan, Buhari is not awed by the good hands or so call experts he engages. The now new head of NNPC has been given a free hand by Buhari, buy when he started saying the refiniries should be privatised, Buhari said no, he is not convinced by the argument. Even if that is so, that it is not yet time.

Some of these technocrats, even though they are good, but they represent and promotes western interests over national interests because of their beneficial long association with the west. . Buhari as a perceptive leader understands this.

WombRaiders:
So you now believe in subsidy removal?

I laff

have I ever been against subsidy removal?if you ppl had allowed gej to remove it then probably Nigeria wont be in this situation today

onatisi:
no need to revalue or devalue .they should leave the rate as it is for now and work on stopping fuel subsidy which is taking a huge chunk of the nation revenue and plug all leaks in the system.it will take time but the results will be positive

oh ho!
now you are coming round
there is still more but as long as this administration has not fully decided.........well

double0seven:
really, you can stop labouring in vain. This administration will not take a wrong decision in order for to fins reasons to crucify it.

how do you define a wrong decision

onatisi:
have I ever been against subsidy removal?if you ppl had allowed gej to remove it then probably Nigeria wont be in this situation today

We are on the same page.

I was solidify behind the subsidy removal.

baralatie:
oh ho!
now you are coming round
there is still more but as long as this administration has not fully decided.........well

I will not wish buhari bad because we are stuck with him for the next 4years.but so far he has been doing some few good things which shows some good promises.gej had good plans and intentions but he allowed few corrupt politicians to destroy his plans .right now Nigeria is moving towards serious austerity period and times and the truth is it ain't gonna be easy. Private companies have started sacking their staff and by January it will be the turn of local,states and fg .what we need now is to stop capital flight by encouraging ppl to start producing and most likely sell the nation refineries to private investors

onatisi:
I will not wish buhari bad because we are stuck with him for the next 4years.but so far he has been doing some few good things which shows some good promises.gej had good plans and intentions but he allowed few corrupt politicians to destroy his plans .right now Nigeria is moving towards serious austerity period and times and the truth is it ain't gonna be easy. Private companies have started sacking their staff and by January it will be the turn of local,states and fg .what we need now is to stop capital flight by encouraging ppl to start producing and most likely sell the nation refineries to private investors

do you know that PMB could have stopped all this from happening?

disloman:
Don't tell mi u just wrote this without proper understanding of what u read?SMH.

And with your understanding, why don't you regale me so that i'll realise how confused i am

PassingShot:
And who was responsible for the mismanagement in the first place?

We all must continue to remember the type of economy this regime inherited. It was an economy which had abt 90% of its budget on recurrent expenditure. An economy that was solely dependent on crude export wgich meant the crash in crude price badly worsened the situation. An economy that had the FG borrow to pay its workers in March and April of this year.

What the current regime is trying to do is to stop the bleeding and make sure an already bad situation doesn't become worse.

The government's position makes sense here.

90% on recurrent expenditure

You pluck figures out of thin air hoping the rest of us are gullible enough to swallow your crap hook, line and sinker eh?
Yes, a large portion of our budget was spent on recurrent expenditure and capital projects, yes, we were and still are overdependent on oil as our main export(this has reduced under the previous democratic dispensations mind you) but you fail to admit the growing portion of our GDP agriculture, telecommunications, banking and finance and manufacturing is accrueing because it won't suit your purpose and you'll have to give credit to the previous administration. You can blame the previous government for not diversifying enough and that's that but not for not diversifying at all but then, when has the economy been more diversified than this and less spent on recurrent expenditure? buhari's previous regime? Stop your hypocrisy abeg!

BraniacX:
90% on recurrent expenditure

You pluck figures out of thin air hoping the rest of us are gullible enough to swallow your crap hook, line and sinker eh?
Yes, a large portion of our budget was spent on recurrent expenditure and capital projects, yes, we were and still are overdependent on oil as our main export(this has reduced under the previous democratic dispensations mind you) but you fail to admit the growing portion of our GDP agriculture, telecommunications, banking and finance and manufacturing is accrueing because it won't suit your purpose and you'll have to give credit to the previous administration. You can blame the previous government for not diversifying enough and that's that but not for not diversifying at all but then, when has the economy been more diversified than this and less spent on recurrent expenditure? buhari's previous regime? Stop your hypocrisy abeg!

so you noticed!
as in I ran for the guy when I saw a big,bigger and the lie got bogus to extent of blaming diversification when it came to analysis of a national budget and the journey of a nation.
it has gone beyond hypocrisy this is not the guy you know.it is a different person now just like berem.

BraniacX:
90% on recurrent expenditure

You pluck figures out of thin air hoping the rest of us are gullible enough to swallow your crap hook, line and sinker eh?
Yes, a large portion of our budget was spent on recurrent expenditure and capital projects, yes, we were and still are overdependent on oil as our main export(this has reduced under the previous democratic dispensations mind you) but you fail to admit the growing portion of our GDP agriculture, telecommunications, banking and finance and manufacturing is accrueing because it won't suit your purpose and you'll have to give credit to the previous administration. You can blame the previous government for not diversifying enough and that's that but not for not diversifying at all but then, when has the economy been more diversified than this and less spent on recurrent expenditure? buhari's previous regime? Stop your hypocrisy abeg!

A simple internet search will tell you what percentage of our budget is on recurrent expenditure. Use the result to prove me wrong.

As for other things you wrote, they remain what they are - paper achievements.

modath:
I do not curse nor insult people but I'm going top make an exception in your case!!

Not only is your brain (your moniker is a major misnomer) defective, it is full of CRAP as well!!

If that fat cheeked gele woman with her textbook economics had not made a mess of the economy,or that incompetent fisherman you wailers still insists on worshipping had not encouraged his PDP gang of bandits to loot the treasury dry in the time of plenty(when oil was 140$ per barrel)we wouldn't be where we are today.

Furthermore, if the little left had not been frittered away by your precious Jona to bribe his way back to office (to wreak more havoc) maybe USD would not be its way to back to 230.

Get the right info,(stop listening to Olisa Metuh & Fayose)JP Morgan put Nigeria on the watchlist since january & only pulled the plug now cos they couldn't get us to bend to their dictates on economy policies!!!


May devil release your bitter soul.

Please omniscient one, define an economy in a mess and how that tag applied to Nigeria of may ending!

And on looting the treasury dry, remind me 'cos strange as it is, i think i might have caught amnesia what treasury did/do we have? What qualifies it as being dry, and on the authority of which court did you establish such said act/offence (looting of the treasury) was done and also, who did this court find guilty? And we must presume innocence until proven guilty! Rigghhtt?

And in this time of plenty you are so nostalgic about, if my memory is what it should be, i remember there was an excess crude account in which the money realised from crude oil sales over the set senate benchmark was stored in as a nestegg for purposes unknown as at then, i remember the drunkard fishermen, yes! And
the fat cheeked gele woman fighting and advocating that the money be left untouched against such pristine APC stalwarts(then governors) like fash the flash, amaechi the kitty cat of ubima and are-GBESE with the cognomen sola of the o-miracle policies that the presidency had no right to withhold it and that it must be shared and both the fisherman and the gele woman were lambasted again and again using unsavoury and defamatory names till they buckled and yielded to these governors. Come a few dozen months later, this duo are at fault for not saving enough money for stormy days ahead which you in your omniscience foresaw and warned us about...........purrrlease!!! spare me your self righteous crap!

And what espionage outfit are you affiliated to to have garnered such succinct intel on jonathans future political plans 'cos i think they have pre-empted jonny boy himself or maybe you have precogs !! Holy shyte!! precogs!!! am in awe

JP morgan put us on the watchlist yes, let's call that probation, at the end of may we were still on probation, and i will like to think financial markets worldwide are always jittery over political change especially if the opposition wins as changes in policy should be expected and Nigeria is no exception and as to why we were on probation in january, it is not rocket science actually, oil prices were plummeting and an unpredictable election was on the horizon. JP morgan delisted us 3 months after buhari's inauguration so let's call that sack but why were sacked now i wonder? does it have anything to do with the economic directionlessness of the current president? Does it have anything to do with perceived closed market policies initiated by the CBN under buhari's watch?

About $7b dollars worth of stock has been lost since buhari became president lost! not withdrawn! These losses represents investments by many Nigerians, and foreigners including diaspora Nigerians so you tell me, is it JP morgan that should have the interest of these investors(Nigerians included) at heart and not our government?

So you mean to tell me JP morgan's dictates were for the good of many a Nigerian investor too abi? I guess they are not Nigerian enough for buhari and the APC or maybe they were just too affluent for his liking (it takes a level of affluence to have some spare to by shares afterall, tight? ) or and this is my favourite, maybe because most investors are mostly not from his region (we the accursed 5%ile and south wasterners)

Please answer my questions without referring to quotes laced with numerical diarrhoea and politically laced rhetoric spewed from mouths attached to people with daft braiins as evidence

Plus i had to add this for the record
May lucifer grant you respite from your self imposed idiocy coupled with your concurrent hypnotic spell

:-why can't we just have unadulterated discussion about Nigeria economy!
the precedence that has been set by the APC and its online followers is not helping matters.