Honestly speaking I am confused with the way things are going in this country. Nigeria was not like this two years ago.

The question now is; are we heading to our glory or we are heading to our doom. I am not a prophet of doom but if things continue this way we are headed straight to a trailer which ll show no mercy in crushing us like cockroach.

Please I want to know if I am the only one with this fear of doom.

Please your comment is highly welcomed.

Nigerians are heading not for doom but a big shining glory just be optimistic!

baralatie:
Nigerians are heading not for doom but a big shining glory just be optimistic!

that's the problem of african countries why they are backward, the country is going down nothing is done , you said "be optimistic" well you are like a man that fire was burning his buttock and keep shinning teeth. A government won't focus on one thing , if this administration is fighting corruption in the economy and 75% of the economy is sinking then what's the usefulness of the fight.

jcross19:
that's the problem of african countries why they are backward, the country is going down nothing is done , you said "be optimistic" well you are like a man that fire was burning his buttock and keep shinning teeth. A government won't focus on one thing , if this administration is fighting corruption in the economy and 75% of the economy is sinking then what's the usefulness of the fight.

Be optimistic

crudeoilagent:
Honestly speaking I am confused with the way things are going in this country. Nigeria was not like this two years ago.

The question now is; are we heading to our glory or we are heading to our doom. I am not a prophet of doom but if things continue this way we are headed straight to a trailer which ll show no mercy in crushing us like cockroach.

Please I want to know if I am the only one with this fear of doom.

Please your comment is highly welcomed.

You were like this 3 years ago. You probably did not notice.
Nigeria has been on this downward trajectory since the British left in 1960.
If you are talking about the current economic malaise,Jonathan owns this baby.
do you think all the fraudulent acts and acts of mismanagement do not have implications?
Nigeria lived beyond hers means,the leadership stole most of her wealth, did not spend the little not stolen on anything fruitful and the devil has come to collect his debt.

oduastates:



You were like this 3 years ago. You probably did not notice.
Nigeria has been on this downward trajectory since the British left in 1960.
If you are talking about the current economic malaise,Jonathan owns this baby.
do you think all the fraudulent acts and acts of mismanagement do not have implications?
Nigeria lived beyond hers means,the leadership stole most of her wealth, did not spend the little not stolen on anything fruitful and the devil has come to collect it's debt.

And this is the kind of thinking people should practically avoid

oduastates:



You were like this 3 years ago. You probably did not notice.
Nigeria has been on this downward trajectory since the British left in 1960.
If you are talking about the current economic malaise,Jonathan owns this baby.
do you think all the fraudulent acts and acts of mismanagement do not have implications?
Nigeria lived beyond hers means,the leadership stole most of her wealth, did not spend the little not stolen on anything fruitful and the devil has come to collect it's debt.

You better carry that baby to your house or the present occupant of Aso rock and leave Jonathan alone. They have programmed your sense to so believe all the dummy sold to you since they took over. I am trying to imagine your level of education and would be surprised if it's beyond OND.

Canada held their election in October 2015 and the new Prime minister was sworn in November 2015. Currently the Canadian dollar is at it's lowest value in the past 13 years and the economy is not fantastic but you never hear the present liberal government blame or refere to the last government as the reason for the fall of their currency, or any other present economic situation rather they have started working and implementing what they promised the electorate during the campaign.

Instead of your lord Buhari to own up that his views of Nigeria through yesterday's lens and thinking that he could apply yesterday's solution to the present day problems is not working and seek genuine help beyond his almajiri circle, he is busy blaming jonathan knowing buffons like you will keep repeating the chorus.

oduastates:



You were like this 3 years ago. You probably did not notice.
Nigeria has been on this downward trajectory since the British left in 1960.
If you are talking about the current economic malaise,Jonathan owns this baby.
do you think all the fraudulent acts and acts of mismanagement do not have implications?
Nigeria lived beyond hers means,the leadership stole most of her wealth, did not spend the little not stolen on anything fruitful and the devil has come to collect it's debt.

Foolish and irrational thinking

Nigeria will only get better though things may appear worse, we give thanks to the almighty.

Tranquill:


You better carry that baby to your house or the present occupant of Aso rock and leave Jonathan alone. They have programmed your sense to so believe all the dummy sold to you since they took over. I am trying to imagine your level of education and would be surprised if it's beyond OND.

Canada held their election in October 2015 and the new Prime minister was sworn in November 2015. Currently the Canadian dollar is at it's lowest value in the past 13 years and the economy is not fantastic but you never hear the present liberal government blame or refere to the last government as the reason for the fall of their currency, or any other present economic situation rather they have started working and implementing what they promised the electorate during the campaign.

Instead of your lord Buhari to own up that his views of Nigeria through yesterday's lens and thinking that he could apply yesterday's solution to the present day problems is not working and seek genuine help beyond his almajiri circle, he is busy blaming jonathan knowing buffons like you will keep repeating the chorus.

Nigeria is not Canada and Canadians are not talking about their past administration because the past administration did not openly looted the Canadian treasury or shared billions of dollars public funds between the president, his cronies and his party.

Please keep your bogus and crooked comparison to yourself.

You iPods are not Nigerians so why lose sleep over Nigerian issues?...

We are not doomed, you are...

arresa:
Nigeria is not Canada and Canadians are not talking about their past administration because the past administration did not openly looted the Canadian treasury or shared billions of dollars public funds between the president, his cronies and his party.

You mean the last 36 state governors and Amaechi who shared $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ so Buhari could triumph over Atiku at the APC convention, not so
Or maybe APC style na to nicodemously loot our treasury

FG, States, LGs Share N568.4 Billion for Oct



[img]http://cdn1.vanguardngr.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/412x247xOkonjo-Iweala-e1442838220305.jpg.pagespeed.ic.nz-K0adxSv.webp[/img]



Also, $1billion was proposed for distribution to complement shortfall in expected revenue." The $1billion is a compromise by the FG over its words in September not to augment shortfalls anymore.

Responding to the presentation, the chairman of the States Commissioners of Finance and Ebonyi State Commissioner of Finance, Mr Timothy Odaah, lamented that the statutory allocation was getting smaller and smaller. "It appears this is the worst in terms of returns. This is the least in allocations as far as this year is concerned. We are mourning the dearth of funds and this is a wakeup call for states and local governments to buoy up their internally generated revenue."

While appreciating the "magnanimity" of President Goodluck Jonathan to approve the $1billion from the excess crude account and to be shared among the federal, state and local governments, Odaah expressed disappointment with the returns made by the NNPC.

He said that [size=14pt]the states had requested for $2bn[/size] to complement for the shortfall in revenue but got only $1billion. In September, Odaah and fellow commissioners had walked out of the Accountant General of the Federation (AGF) when the federal government said that the framework of the 2013 budget was no longer realistic and it won't augment shortfall in revenue. Odaah raised issues with the statutory allocations of previous months.

More from: http://allafrica.com/stories/201311150323.html

www.nairaland.com/attachments/2578022_iweala_jpeg0858fd35c7757170d8155dae6623e1c2

scribble:





Dollarization Of The APC Primaries: How Amaehi Vanquished Atiku #saibuhari

The blogosphere was inundated with reports of the excessive sharing of dollars at the All Progressives Congress which took place during the latter part of last week.

One APC supporter and Special Adviser to Osun Governor on Environment, BolaIlori had blown the scandal open after he saw the beginning stages of the dollarization in action.

He took to his Facebook page and scribbled, “Crazy things are happening here!!! Some of these cannot represent the change Nigeria is yearning for. Excessive dollarization by one of the aspirants to is to say the least obscene. I have been involved in political process for decades now, I have never witnessed this volume of raw dollarization of party primaries. I only read about this kind of things in PDP primaries. A question been asked by conscientious delegates is that whoever can be giving out between $2000 to $5000 to…delegates certainly does not represent the kind of change Nigerians want…those who contributed to the pauperization of Nigeria now revel in dollarization… majority of Ondo delegates are still standing with Buhari but have been reduced from 85% to 70% within 24 hours…the remaining has gone with dollars ooo.!!!!!”

One has to wonder how Buhari was able to win the primaries in this era of stomach infrastructure where dollars are like the Biblical manna that God sent down from heaven to nourish the Israelites as they made their way to the promised land.

Sources close to the APC with knowledge of the way the Primaries unfolded have revealed that it was Rivers State Governor, Amaechi who flew back to Rivers State and returned to Lagos on Thursday morning with enough dollars to make Benjamin Franklin blush.

It has been revealed that Atiku offered the delegates $5000 each, but Amaechi doubled it to $10000 a pop. Thus turning the tables in favour of General Buhari.

Since his adventure into the APC, Amaechi has gone out of his way to prove himself a party loyalist, always the first to shoki or azonto at the many events the APC holds, which he himself is usually the chief sponsor.

According to party insiders, Amaechi has overtaken Tinubu as the major financier of the party. One does not need to wonder why he is always at President Jonathan’s throat over misappropriated oil wells or other such business. Anything that diminishes from the State’s coffers will have a ripple effect on his funding budget for the APC.



Joe Francis wrote in from Port Harcourt.


http://www.theheraldng.com/dollarization-apc-primaries-amaehi-vanquished-atiku-saibuhari/

jcross19:
that's the problem of african countries why they are backward, the country is going down nothing is done , you said "be optimistic" well you are like a man that fire was burning his buttock and keep shinning teeth. A government won't focus on one thing , if this administration is fighting corruption in the economy and 75% of the economy is sinking then what's the usefulness of the fight.

Sanusi and Soludo have both condemned Buharis economic policies. Buhari is now the CBN governor.Emefiele is jusr a figurehead.By mid next year, the naira will hit 500 if these policies remain unchanged.

oduastates:



You were like this 3 years ago. You probably did not notice.
Nigeria has been on this downward trajectory since the British left in 1960.
If you are talking about the current economic malaise,Jonathan owns this baby.
do you think all the fraudulent acts and acts of mismanagement do not have implications?
Nigeria lived beyond hers means,the leadership stole most of her wealth, did not spend the little not stolen on anything fruitful and the devil has come to collect it's debt.

GEJ does not own this baby.In 2009 when the price of oil sank to $35 from 148 the previous year, there was $60b in the foriegn reserves and $20b in the excess crude funds.

This did not still stop a devaluation of the naira from 120 to 150.

Buhari refuses to devalue despite strong market signals. That has fed excessive demand at the official rate which can obviously not be met. That has compelled demand to rise at the parallel market leading to a crash of the naira in that market. Soludo and Buhari have both condemned Buharis statist economic policies. The naira should touch 400 by year ending. The economy is finished

Tranquill:
You better carry that baby to your house or the present occupant of Aso rock and leave Jonathan alone. They have programmed your sense to so believe all the dummy sold to you since they took over. I am trying to imagine your level of education and would be surprised if it's beyond OND.

Canada held their election in October 2015 and the new Prime minister was sworn in November 2015. Currently the Canadian dollar is at it's lowest value in the past 13 years and the economy is not fantastic but you never hear the present liberal government blame or refere to the last government as the reason for the fall of their currency, or any other present economic situation rather they have started working and implementing what they promised the electorate during the campaign.

Instead of your lord Buhari to own up that his views of Nigeria through yesterday's lens and thinking that he could apply yesterday's solution to the present day problems is not working and seek genuine help beyond his almajiri circle, he is busy blaming jonathan knowing buffons like you will keep repeating the chorus.

First of all, suggesting that you have superior intellectual capacity over another or using derogatory terms on others is totally unnecessary in a public forum.
---
Secondly, while what you said about Canada is true, you forgot to mention that Canadian citizens do not blame their current PM for the predicament of their economy and currency. That is because the citizenry is enlightened enough to understand that as a major oil exporting nation, there is direct correlation between oil price and their currency/economy. But in Nigeria, current economic discussions are centred around love/hate for either PMB or GEJ. Comments on national issues are guided by bigotry and parochial considerations, with very little intellectual input.

You ignorantly or mischievously criticize PMB of being responsible for our current economic woes and you don't think the government would defend itself and deflect that criticism to who truly deserves it.
---
You think your blueprint is more modern than that of PMB? Why not propose it instead of making shallow comments.

crudeoilagent:
Honestly speaking I am confused with the way things are going in this country. Nigeria was not like this two years ago.

The question now is; are we heading to our glory or we are heading to our doom. I am not a prophet of doom but if things continue this way we are headed straight to a trailer which ll show no mercy in crushing us like cockroach.

Please I want to know if I am the only one with this fear of doom.

Please your comment is highly welcomed.

What "things" are you referring to??

If you are talking about the economy, watch more of international news, cnn, aljazeera etc, and you'd understand what is going on.

Had PDP diversified our economy during the boom years, we wouldn't have been in this mess. This time last year, oil sold for over 100dollars pb, what did Jonathan do with all that money?

Nigeria has NEVER earned as much as it did during the years of Jonathan (due to record oil prices), did we witness a commensurate growth in the economy?? They rather shared the proceeds amongst themselves, "stealing and bleeding the country dry" (in the words of Amanpour during her interview with Jo).

Without much savings, we can hardly cushion the effect of the fall in oil prices as it affects even most advanced economies.

Stop trying to blame whatever you are going through on the present admin. Try to make the most of the situation.

arresa:



Nigeria is not Canada and Canadians are not talking about their past administration because the past administration did not openly looted the Canadian treasury or shared billions of dollars public funds between the president, his cronies and his party.

Please keep your bogus and crooked comparison to yourself.

You iPods are not Nigerians so why lose sleep over Nigerian issues?...

We are not doomed, you are...

Tranquill is correct.

The reason why the Canadian $ has lost value i because it is a massive commodities exporter like Nigeria. With less forex coming in due to lower prices for its commodities, this has led to its currency losing value despite their economy being much larger than Nigeria.

Buhari has refused to devalue. This is purely insane and the markets as equally gonee nuts. The curse of price controls has taken over.

Nobody is doubting Buharis integrity or his incorruptible nature but his economic policies stink.

Soludo and Sanusi, the latter who is a strong Buharist has comdemned his economic policies.

Emefiele is a mere figurehead. I predicted in a thread I started that the naira would touch 300 by 2019. I was flabbergasted it touched early this year. The naira will touch 400 year ending if things don't change.

oduastates:
If you are talking about the current economic malaise,Jonathan owns this baby.
do you think all the fraudulent acts and acts of mismanagement do not have implications?

Buhari said he has recovered plenty of the "stolen" money, not so
Why should that not remedy the situation that you described above, if true?
Can we CRITICALLY engage our leaders so they don't take us for a mumu ride always

crudeoilagent:
Honestly speaking I am confused with the way things are going in this country. Nigeria was not like this two years ago.

The question now is; are we heading to our glory or we are heading to our doom. I am not a prophet of doom but if things continue this way we are headed straight to a trailer which ll show no mercy in crushing us like cockroach.

Please I want to know if I am the only one with this fear of doom.

Please your comment is highly welcomed.

I'll be blunt to tell you that the future looks very bleak!
---
Those blaming PMB are either doing so ignorantly or mischievously. There is an inherent leadership failure in the country that was masked because of high oil prices during the last 3 decades. Now is the time to see the unclothedness and emptiness of our leaders.
---
Think about this:
(1) Nigeria's average cost of oil production is around $25pb, Budget benchmark is $38pb, current oil price is $28pb. What this means is that Nigeria was expected a profit of $13pb from crude oil sales but are only getting $3pb (77% decline). This means that the crude oil revenue of ~N880bn in the 2016 budget might go down to ~N200bn.

(2) Also note that most of the other tax revenue in the budget are composed of Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) and Income tax of oil companies. So, expect much lower tax revenue to government.

(3) The Oil companies support a lot of businesses, from oil servicing companies to banking to airlines to hotels, etc. So, expect much lower profits and consequently, lower taxes from these companies to government.

(4) The Oil companies and all other supporting businesses will undergo staff restructuring to save cost. This will increase unemployment and lower employment tax (PAYE) to government.

(5) As FX inflow from oil sales continue to decline, there will be serious pressure on Reserves. This will force the CBN to officially devalue the Naira (~N250/$) to protect Reserves. If they don't, they might choose to limit FX sales, pushing that demand to the black market. This will make the BM price hit the N350 - N400 range.

(6) As the CBN continues to apply its FX controls, foreign portfolio investors (who account for 40-60% of the Nigerian capital market) will continue to exit in droves. Also, companies will report lower earnings due to contagion effect of lower oil prices. Also, demand for shares will decline due to the general low income level. The combined effect of this will be a stock market melt down (which, by the way, is already in play). The implications of this is that even the small wealth that you had in Shares will be severely eroded. Pension Funds who also invest in the market might take a hit, jeopardizing the funds of contributors.

(7) As FAAC revenue to state governments decline, expect more civil servants to be out of work. Expect uncompleted projects and expect more actions from organized labour.

(8.) Any effort to diversify the economy now is limited due to the small government revenue. Even successful efforts will take at least 2 years to start yielding results. Worse still, you can't even trust that our leaders will do the right thing. People who couldn't jack with $100 oil price cannot be trusted to do much with $30 oil price.

(9) Expect GDP growth to decline. Expect more unemployment. Expect higher inflation. In fact, expect a Recession, or worse still Stagflation.
---
In summary, what is coming is an Economic Tsunami. I wish I could be more positive but that would only be hypocritical and I'm a realist. The best this government can do is prevent an already bad situation from getting worse. This is no fault of this administration, it's what they inherited.

As religious people, the other option is to pray and fast that oil goes back up to around $50-$60 for at least 2 years - in the hope that our leaders will finally appreciate the gravity of the situation and deploy the funds to diversify the economy and build infrastructure for sustainable development.

exactly, you in particular.

grandstar:


Tranquill is correct.

The reason why the Canadian $ has lost value i because it is a massive commodities exporter like Nigeria. With less forex coming in due to lower prices for its commodities, this has led to its currency losing value despite their economy being much larger than Nigeria.

Buhari has refused to devalue. This is purely insane and the markets as equally gonee nuts. The curse of price controls has taken over.

Nobody is doubting Buharis integrity or his incorruptible nature but his economic policies stink.

Soludo and Sanusi, the latter who is a strong Buharist has comdemned his economic policies.

Emefiele is a mere figurehead. I predicted in a thread I started that the naira would touch 300 by 2019. I was flabbergasted it touched early this year. The naira will touch 400 year ending if things don't change.

Soludo is also a strong "Buharist". Both Soludo and Sanusi would vote Buhari a thousand times before voting Jonathan. They both adviced ( not condemned) that Nigeria should devalue its currency as there are no other options.

Their advice comes with a bitter pill because it will bring serious hardship to pensioners who are too old to work and are on fixed salaries. Buhari feels that this is unjust, and indeed this action is unjust considering that over a trillion naira was stolen by 55 people in the last administration.

Soludo was recently qouted saying Jonathan ran the CBN like Idi Amin.

omenka:
Had PDP diversified our economy during the boom years, we wouldn't have been in this mess. This time last year, oil sold for over 100dollars pb, what did Jonathan do with all that money?

Jonathan wanted to save the money but was CONSTITUTIONALLY compelled to share the money in the JOINT federation account to the 36 state governors, many of whom are with APC, not so

Jonathan diversified the economy unlike the "navigator" of APC and Buhari's Advisor Plenipotentiary, the Agbaya of Owu who simply stole our money while making media noise about fighting corruption.
The evidence is undeniable.


www.nairaland.com/attachments/2085409_hh_jpeg07b0e6e05a4624e7545331a83b844508



www.nairaland.com/attachments/2112078_bvthridcmaabgmp_jpegcc27eb92c81ab837ea93db90ccbbd5a5

anonimi:
Premier beer out in 2015, says chairman

December 30, 2014

Chairman, Board of Directors, Premier Breweries Plc, Onitsha, Prince Arthur Eze, yesterday said the company would commence full stream production of beer in the first quarter of 2015.

Eze said this while addressing shareholders of the company during the 2014 Annual General Meeting, AGM, of the company for the year ended March, 2014, held in Enugu.

He noted that with the assurances of the company's technical partners and the level of re-engineering so far achieved, the company would resume its leading role in the beer production industry in the country.

The chairman said that electricity supply had been stabilised with the installation of a 500KVA generator while water supply was already in place from which the company produces the table water that was already in the market.

Eze explained that with about N1 billion share capital, the company settled a monthly electricity bill of N1 million and a salary bill of N3.4 million.

- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/12/p....GrxQJl6p.dpuf





More from: http://updates.hopefornigeriaonline.com/premier-brewery-onitsha-to-commence-production-in-2015/

www.nairaland.com/attachments/2098905_agriculturereform_jpega059f1921e04629987b0d142212d4df7

lomprico:
Good! I hope d loan extends to the farmers in ebonyi. I saw their "rice hill" sometime last month n was astonished!

Note. The tiny dots at d top are people.



www.nairaland.com/attachments/3074084_img20150709wa000_jpeg7cbcb35c5f93b890a7ce92b4c0df8a1c

[img]http://transformationwatch.files./2014/04/nissan-lagos-factory-patrol-sweet.jpg[/img]



www.nairaland.com/attachments/2419425_image_jpeg9f360c5ab7736510df54c882e9dbf188



Rather than for Buhari to patronise Peugeot, Nissan or another local manufacturing company to safeguard forex, EMPLOYMENT etc he is spending N4.7 billion to import BMW cars.
Anyway why should one expect anything different from a dull, daft & dumb person aka the Confused One

Bevista:
As religious people, the other option is to pray and fast that oil goes back up to around $50-$60 for at least 2 years

No need to pray & fast.
Our Superman Buhari will fix things on turbo-charge




www.nairaland.com/attachments/2186280_buhari2blaugh1_jpegc35d9ea4e30142f9302718e17f58f220




www.nairaland.com/attachments/2829596_img6325197050325_jpeg_jpeg61db8b350e65ada0da8fdf4018fb03e4

trillville:


Soludo is also a strong "Buharist". Both Soludo and Sanusi would vote Buhari a thousand times before voting Jonathan. They both adviced ( not condemned) that Nigeria should devalue its currency as there are no other options.

Their advice comes with a bitter pill because it will bring serious hardship to pensioners who are too old to work and are on fixed salaries. Buhari feels that this is unjust, and indeed this action is unjust considering that over a trillion naira was stolen by 55 people in the last administration.

Soludo was recently qouted saying Jonathan ran the CBN like Idi Amin.

Its 300 now. Buhari is simply playing the ostrich, digging its head in the sand!

grandstar:
GEJ does not own this baby.In 2009 when the price of oil sank to $35 from 148 the previous year, there was $60b in the foriegn reserves and $20b in the excess crude funds.

This did not still stop a devaluation of the naira from 120 to 150.

Buhari refuses to devalue despite strong market signals. That has fed excessive demand at the official rate which can obviously not be met. That has compelled demand to rise at the parallel market leading to a crash of the naira in that market. Soludo and Buhari have both condemned Buharis statist economic policies. The naira should touch 400 by year ending. The economy is finished

In 2009, Nigeria had a total foreign reserve of $64 billion that the Obasanjo government saved starting from $16 a barrel .22 billion dollars out of the amount was the excess crude account.
In 2009, before Jonathan's hand of corruption ran the economy aground, we had only 6 oil importing companies. Within a year, they ballooned to close 70.almost all the new comers his hand of corruption.
In 2009, Nigeria had almost no foreign debts.
Someone( obj) paid them off when oil was selling for $30 a barrel.
In 2009, men without any visible source of income were not riding about in private jets.
Before 2009, fresh graduates were walking into hundred of thousand of jobs in banking, insurance, telecommunications, leisure etc

anonimi:
No need to pray & fast.
Our Superman Buhari will fix things on turbo-charge

Noted. But next time you can desist from quoting me if you cannot enrich the discussion or have nothing intellectual to contribute.

Much respect bro!

oduastates:
In 2009, Nigeria had a total foreign reserve of $64 billion that the Obasanjo government saved starting from $16 a barrel .22 billion dollars out of the amount was the excess crude account.
In 2009, before Jonathan ran the economy aground, we had only 6 oil importing companies companies

OBJ left over $60bn in FR and another ~$20bn in ECA. When you consider that he paid out $12bn to Paris Club to write-off our $30bn debt and the fact that the average oil price during his tenure was under $45pb, then you will appreciate the irresponsibility and recklessness of the Jonathan administration.

Bevista:
I'll be blunt to tell you that the future looks very bleak!
---
Those blaming PMB are either doing so ignorantly or mischievously. There is an inherent leadership failure in the country that was masked because of high oil prices during the last 3 decades. Now is the time to see the unclothedness and emptiness of our leaders.
---
Think about this:
(1) Nigeria's average cost of oil production is around $25pb, Budget benchmark is $38pb, current oil price is $28pb. What this means is that Nigeria was expected a profit of $13pb from crude oil sales but are only getting $3pb (77% decline). This means that the crude oil revenue of ~N880bn in the 2016 budget might go down to ~N200bn.

(2) Also note that most of the other tax revenue in the budget are composed of Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) and Income tax of oil companies. So, expect much lower tax revenue to government.

(3) The Oil companies support a lot of businesses, from oil servicing companies to banking to airlines to hotels, etc. So, expect much lower profits and consequently, lower taxes from these companies to government.

(4) The Oil companies and all other supporting businesses will undergo staff restructuring to save cost. This will increase unemployment and lower employment tax (PAYE) to government.

(5) As FX inflow from oil sales continue to decline, there will be serious pressure on Reserves. This will force the CBN to officially devalue the Naira (~N250/$) to protect Reserves. If they don't, they might choose to limit FX sales, pushing that demand to the black market. This will make the BM price hit the N350 - N400 range.

(6) As the CBN continues to apply its FX controls, foreign portfolio investors (who account for 40-60% of the Nigerian capital market) will continue to exit in droves. Also, companies will report lower earnings due to contagion effect of lower oil prices. Also, demand for shares will decline due to the general low income level. The combined effect of this will be a stock market melt down (which, by the way, is already in play). The implications of this is that even the small wealth that you had in Shares will be severely eroded. Pension Funds who also invest in the market might take a hit, jeopardizing the funds of contributors.

(7) As FAAC revenue to state governments decline, expect more civil servants to be out of work. Expect uncompleted projects and expect more actions from organized labour.

(8.) Any effort to diversify the economy now is limited due to the small government revenue. Even successful efforts will take at least 2 years to start yielding results. Worse still, you can't even trust that our leaders will do the right thing. People who couldn't jack with $100 oil price cannot be trusted to do much with $30 oil price.

(9) Expect GDP growth to decline. Expect more unemployment. Expect higher inflation. In fact, expect a Recession, or worse still Stagflation.
---
In summary, what is coming is an Economic Tsunami. I wish I could be more positive but that would only be hypocritical and I'm a realist. The best this government can do is prevent an already bad situation from getting worse. This is no fault of this administration, it's what they inherited.

As religious people, the other option is to pray and fast that oil goes back up to around $50-$60 for at least 2 years - in the hope that our leaders will finally appreciate the gravity of the situation and deploy the funds to diversify the economy and build infrastructure for sustainable development.

The only option is a devaluation. That is the foremost line of action.

An overvalued exchange heavily disvourages an influx of badly needed dollars. Even those receiving $100 WU are whining how much more those who want to bring in millions?

Bevista:
OBJ left over $60bn in FR and another ~$20bn in ECA. When you consider that he paid out $12bn to Paris Club to write-off our $30bn debt and the fact that the average oil price during his tenure was under $60pb, then you will appreciate the irresponsibility and recklessness of the Jonathan administration.

Like the great recession in America, there were cues to the fact that the Nigerian economy was being mismanaged.
Even if you missed the fact that the London, new York investment banks were piling into commodities and creating a bubble in commodity prices.( The price of staples led to the the start of the Arab uprising), you cannot but miss the fact that some of the ridiculous salaries being paid for jobs regarded as clerical work elsewhere were on the high side. Many Nigerian repatriates came back home to pick some of those jobs. excessively paid for no jobs.
When the incomes of a country whether private or public is not being effectively deployed, you can expect only
One outcome.
For example one of the cue before the American great recession was that, a $350,000 house bought by someone who could not afford a mortgage could only be rented out for less $500. In many cases, they could not even find tenants because those tenants too had a mortgage they could not afford.

grandstar:
The only option is a devaluation. That is the foremost line of action.

An overvalued exchange heavily disvourages an influx of badly needed dollars. Even those receiving $100 WU are whining how much more those who want to bring in millions?

Devaluation is very critical and long overdue. But, as I said, that will only help prevent an already bad situation from getting worse.
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Apart from crude oil, we export practically nothing, so we won't benefit that much from the devaluation but I agree, it is very expedient in the present circumstances.

oduastates:



In 2009, Nigeria had a total foreign reserve of $64 billion that the Obasanjo government saved starting from $16 a barrel .22 billion dollars out of the amount was the excess crude account.
In 2009, before Jonathan's hand of corruption ran the economy aground, we had only 6 oil importing companies. Within a year, they ballooned to close 70.almost all the new comers his hand of corruption.
In 2009, Nigeria had almost no foreign debts.
Someone( obj) paid them off when oil was selling for $30 a barrel.
In 2009, men without any visible source of income were not riding about in private jets.
Before 2009, fresh graduates were walking into hundred of thousand of jobs in banking, insurance, telecommunications, leisure etc

There is still no option but to devalue.

Even if $100billion was left in the reserves, their would be no option but to devalue. Brazil, Russia,Australia and Canada have all devalued their currencies. 1+1 = 2 and no matter how much damage GEJ caused, it will never make it 3. Buhari better get to work and make it 2. He desire to make it 5 is ruining the economy