₦airaland Forum

TonyeBarcanista:
What is responsible for scarcity of the dollar? Where you in Limbo when the CBN implemented policy that made people to do away with the dollar simply because they want to stop dollar circulation? Where do you think all those dollars went to? Can you relate my prediction on August 4, 2015 with the present comatose of the naira that is largely caused by dollar scarcity? www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-18/naira-hits-new-low-on-black-market-as-dollar-scarcity-worsens

TonyeBarcanista:
Well, I am not surprised to see the #BlameJonathan talk

Obiagelli:
Maybe we won't have gotten to this, i also spoke with an economist today who said we lost the oppurtunity of devaluing 5 months ago, but then there are no guarantees that the black market wont stop widening the gap.

Surely that Cbn/buhari policy hastened this pathetic state of the naira but we has the scarcity coming

Elosky20:
you started this arguement urself, by laying the whole blame on buhari and CBN governor which is very wrong, Everybody under APC and PDP are to be blamed equally. bt majority of the blame should go to the former ruling party for failing to plan for the future appropriately, you cant compare the amount of foreign reserve left behind by OBASANJO(over $49bilion to the amount JONATHAN($30 billion) left behind for buhari. so i wonder why do u blame buhari.

TonyeBarcanista:
Again, I'll refer you to the Second post of this thread.

The CBN was aware that the dollar was of importance in our economy(as per import based), yet they implemented a backyard policy because they want to do away with circulation of the dollar and create fake naira appreciation. Very skewed!

While the oil price fall might have effect on the naira, the bulk of what caused the scarcity of the dollar can be traced to the July/August 2015 CBN policy(Refer to my prediction and drop your ego).


@EbukaObi Well done

chinchum:
Maybe he heared some big coat wearing economists say theoretical jargons, forgetting that such devaluation in current crises will likely work in a producing nation, and not a consuming nation. If naira is devalued in response to forces, and it gets to say 300 naira, does it occur to him nigerians will pay at least times 1.5 what we currently pay to buy petrol and other refined products?

Nigeria is a consuming nation, Buhari is striving to weather the storm,he cant stop this storm, if we are lucky we wont be swept off, but i must confess it seems tougher times are ahead, i predicted we will get out of the woods by the 3rd quarter of 2016.

Elosky20:
Thank you abeg, we need to address this situation once and for all. the negative effect of devaluation of naira on a consuming economy like nigeria is terrible:
https://www.naij.com/332430-naira-devaluation-effects-for-nigeria-and-nigerians.html
.
http://635.gtbank.com/2015/01/naira-devaluation-and-its-effects/

989900:
1. Check excess liquidity, and currency racketeering (see Henry Boyo's explanation. . . I have posted many stuffs about it previously).

2. Amend our laws to draw in investors (use propaganda if need be).

3. Amend power generation and transmission laws to attract investors in that sector . . . do everything possible on earth and beyond to achieve at the least, 15 hours stable power supply averagely (this would catalyze industrial revolution, while reducing demand for refined pet. products).

4. Refineries -- we need all four gov't refineries, and tens of modular ones running since last decade -- until we stop the importation of refined petroleum products that eats up, up to 30-40% of our Forex, we are going no where!
We were bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars in the early 90s from refined products exports, right now, we should have colonized West Africa with NNPC products everywhere (refined products have no OPEC cap)!

5. Encourage exports, and local content.

Crude prices is just a portion of the problem.

Sibrah:
Barcanista isn't ready to see things differently. Oil has everything to do with Naira value loss. CBN did not try to totally prevent circulation of $ it simply stop augmenting dollar value for importers. Any body who has dollar and wants Naira should simply approch any of the many importers and do business with them. Buhari/Emefiele approach is very OK.

modath:
@ TonyeBarcanista ...

Since you are adamant about Putting the blame on Buhari & Emefiele, you are free to, cool if that's what suits you but I just need you to indulge me & answer two question...

1.How long can we keep financing out import dependent lifestyle perpetually without judgement day finally dawning on us as a nation??

2. Who & what will you direct the blame for Saudi, UAE, Venezuela, Angola etc current eco

LRNZH ... My takeaway from this debate is that the IB is truly a "Lucky" fellow, he created a giant & slippery clusterbleep & got out just in time before its implosion...

If the oil price decline had started in July 2013 & not 2014, OP here wouldn't be penning this rumination of his selective thought process.

TonyeBarcanista:
Were you in Afghanistan when this was happening?

www.dailypost.ng/2015/08/02/nigerians-banks-reject-dollar-deposits/

TonyeBarcanista:
Were you in Afghanistan when this was happening?

www.dailypost.ng/2015/08/02/nigerians-banks-reject-dollar-deposits/

modath:
LRNZH ... My takeaway from this debate is that the IB is truly a "Lucky" fellow, he created a giant & slippery clusterbleep & got out just in time before its implosion...

If the oil price decline had started in July 2013 & not 2014, OP here wouldn't be penning this rumination of his selective thought process.

AZeD1:
Why do you think he conceded without a fight? He had seen the storm coming and bailed..


@TonyeBarcanista

Even if the CBN had devalued, or devalues the Naira, it will still continue to fall because of low supply.

The Country earns dollars by selling oil which right now is almost a useless commodity, the CBN has a choice, flood the market with dollar and watch our reserves finish in about 3 months or ration the dollar and sell to those who are importing essential commodity.

The Crash of the Naira
Right now, speculators, and people importing things like shoes (41 items on the list) are the ones pushing the Dollar high, this will continue until they realise that the common man can't afford what they are selling, in which case they switch to a local supplier or go out of business.

The Problem with Devaluing the Naira.
Even if the CBN officially devalues the Naira today, the parallel market will still rise to about 3 times the official rate because devaluation doesn't solve the scarcity of dollars. If we were an exporting country, devaluation would have worked because things produced in Nigeria would cheaper (find out why China manipulates its currency).

Elosky20:
thank you. i love this thread.

TonyeBarcanista:
1. Shagari lost power through coup and even won re-election. It has nothing to do with oil slump.

2. IBB lost power through demand for democracy. In fact, after devaluating the Naira through SAP, he squandered whatever came of it. It has nothing to do with oil slump.

3. GEJ lost power because people were fed up with his handling of the economy. However, his government Deliberately devaluated Naira from 155 to 167 in 2014, and later to 199 in early 2015. However, the Open market rate didn't exceed 230/$. It has nothing to do with oil slump.

For the record, oil price crashed in 2008 December and 2009 February to $30pb without killing the Naira.


This astronomic fall has nothing to do with dollar...

TonyeBarcanista:
1. Shagari lost power through coup and even won re-election. It has nothing to do with oil slump.

2. IBB lost power through demand for democracy. In fact, after devaluating the Naira through SAP, he squandered whatever came of it. It has nothing to do with oil slump.

3. GEJ lost power because people were fed up with his handling of the economy. However, his government Deliberately devaluated Naira from 155 to 167 in 2014, and later to 199 in early 2015. However, the Open market rate didn't exceed 230/$. It has nothing to do with oil slump.

For the record, oil price crashed in 2008 December and 2009 February to $30pb without killing the Naira.


This astronomic fall has nothing to do with dollar...

Activa:
The excess liquidity by Boyo is a farce.

I explained it on another forum yesterday.

Elosky20:
he forgot to mention that in 2008 our foreign reserve was $64.8 bilion, bt in 2016 it is $28.8 bilion, the govt used it to defend the naira then.
http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/2007-2012-movement-in-foreign-reserves-account/138991/

DeLaRue:
Kazakhstan - the postal child of glutonous oil spending, the richest country in Central Asia is on its knees now.

According to Al Jazeera, "Many struggling to make ends meet in main city of Central Asian nation whose economy is heavily dependent on oil." http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/global-oil-glut-leaves-kazakhstan-reeling-160204150626887.html

Their currency has fallen sharply, and the government recently cut their budget by 40%!


If Buhari cuts Nigeria's budget by 40%, all hell will break loose with PDP and misinformed youths calling for arms to fight the 'dictator.'

Btw, 40% reduction in Nigeria's budget will cause near - mass starvation of a sizable portion of the Nigerian population.

jaybee3:

Elosky20:
you started this arguement urself, by laying the whole blame on buhari and CBN governor which is very wrong, Everybody under APC and PDP are to be blamed equally. bt majority of the blame should go to the former ruling party for failing to plan for the future appropriately, you cant compare the amount of foreign reserve left behind by OBASANJO(over $49bilion to the amount JONATHAN($30 billion) left behind for buhari. so i wonder why do u blame buhari.

AZeD1:
Why do you think he conceded without a fight? He had seen the storm coming and bailed..


@TonyeBarcanista

Even if the CBN had devalued, or devalues the Naira, it will still continue to fall because of low supply.

The Country earns dollars by selling oil which right now is almost a useless commodity, the CBN has a choice, flood the market with dollar and watch our reserves finish in about 3 months or ration the dollar and sell to those who are importing essential commodity.

The Crash of the Naira
Right now, speculators, and people importing things like shoes (41 items on the list) are the ones pushing the Dollar high, this will continue until they realise that the common man can't afford what they are selling, in which case they switch to a local supplier or go out of business.

The Problem with Devaluing the Naira.
Even if the CBN officially devalues the Naira today, the parallel market will still rise to about 3 times the official rate because devaluation doesn't solve the scarcity of dollars. If we were an exporting country, devaluation would have worked because things produced in Nigeria would cheaper (find out why China manipulates its currency).