Quakertellicus1:
Wailers....food is ready.

On a more serious note...

The problem is that we are not earning enough forex from oil. And we should have saved money last time....but GEJ somehow did not improve on Yaradua's success in raising our ECA to 60bn....he knocked it down to 32bn.

Let's be frank, we have a situation where we are no longer earning enough from oil.(And we are going to earn less as the glut continues) And PMB is not doing what needs to be done....cutting subsides, raising taxes, spending more on power and transport...so that eventually Nigeria would be able to get off oil for good.

Nigeria needs to be free from oil. We need to become a manufacturing power....who manufactures goods for the export market...so that we can be like China....a superpower who gives loans to other poor nations.

So....if you want your ECA imporved....you have to go manufacturing. Oil is a spent force.

Some of una zombies should be in AMC's The Talking Dead.. Since the previous govt didn't save like u all have been made to believe, where did d dis govt get d bailout funds it provided to States as it's first official duty...

Can u seee.... The foreign reserve is still being depleted despite the hoarding of dollars so what's the point?


We don't have access to dollars... Buhari should just resign. This is not the 80s

glook:


You never begin to suffer. Wait till he devalues the naira which will lead to more inflation and you will pray to be a zombie.

Hahahahahahaha! Is it the naira that has no value or another naira? A naira that can only be obtained at a minimum amount of #320 is worthless..

NavierStokes:
I thought CBN said Nigerians have $20billion sitting idle in their accounts, remittances from diaspora for 2015 was $21billion, so why is the reserve still around $27billion?

Lies everywhere!!!!!

Seems you are ignorant about this matter.

Nigerians money is different from Nigeria's money. Also the money remitted by the diaspora is remitted to fellow Nigerians account in form of cash and investment and not personally to CBN's account.

Quakertellicus1:
Wailers....food is ready.

On a more serious note...

The problem is that we are not earning enough forex from oil. And we should have saved money last time....but GEJ somehow did not improve on Yaradua's success in raising our ECA to 60bn....he knocked it down to 32bn.

Let's be frank, we have a situation where we are no longer earning enough from oil.(And we are going to earn less as the glut continues) And PMB is not doing what needs to be done....cutting subsides, raising taxes, spending more on power and transport...so that eventually Nigeria would be able to get off oil for good.

Nigeria needs to be free from oil. We need to become a manufacturing power....who manufactures goods for the export market...so that we can be like China....a superpower who gives loans to other poor nations.

So....if you want your ECA imporved....you have to go manufacturing. Oil is a spent force.

I like the way you put it in perspective. If only we can get the power sector running efficiently, the world awaits what nigeria's manufacturing economy can offer the global market.
Unfortunately, the calibre of leaders we have cant see this. They are hoodwinked and hypnotised by petro-dollar. I wish to see a nigerian economy that sells less oil to the international market, more crude for our refineries to work and export to neighbouring economies, lesser dependence on imported rice and frozen chicken. If we can et the power sector running at capacity, the world would take us serious.
Nigerians are hardworking and intelligent people, but we have been cursed by greedy, lazy, myopic leaders who cant see beyond crude oil.

SycophanticGoat:



Hahahahahahaha! Is it the naira that has no value or another naira? A naira that can only be obtained at a minimum amount of #320 is worthless..

We agree that the naira is worthless and the economy is in shambles, but we should try not to be biased in our aguments.

In this case Buhari is right not to devalue the naira and being adamnant about it creates a level of security.

The foreign investors are just scared that Buhari might devalue the naira later.

Quakertellicus1:


I did not vote(job things)...and I support one of the smaller parties anyway....and Buhari has not done enough in my opinion...he should be doing what JJ of Ghana did and run an austeirity govt.

Seems to me that you are the one still crying...over a lost election.

2019 is round the corner.....

I have no sensible reason to argue with you if you really think it's about a lost election.

Do you think we would have had cause to argue if Buhari was doing "enough"? Dele Momodu and Omojuwa are also disappointed because of a lost election? Wake up and smell the coffee.

GenOrumov:

Seems you are ignorant about this matter.

Nigerians money is different from Nigeria's money. Also the money remitted by the diaspora is remitted to fellow Nigerians account in form of cash and investment and not personally to CBN's account.

Yea bro, had my reasons for putting that up. The CBN lists the amount held by the government as the foreign reserves. But then where do the bank's hold their foreign exchange. That post was meant to show that there is more foreign exchange within the system than the government songs to our ears.

Everybody....slap for buhari....he is tourin d world to bring investors from outer space?

Where is buhari nw....were buhari dey nw...which country e dey go nw if e com back for 5mins in Nigeria...

Wats a failure?

ATERI:


Capital flight is the pain you must be ready to endure if you want to stop casino capitalism in your country. It`s the madness that started during the Obasanjo era and continued with Jonathan when people believed that foreigners can be relied upon to develop the economy. Look at what happens around the world, once you make a slight adjustment in favour of the domestic economy, casino capitalist would be on the run. They are only happy with blind privatization and liberalization that hand over the economy and the country over to them so that they can turn Nigeria into the type of apartheid soceity that Britain and America have long been. Buhari needs to be steadfast, the investors that are looking for quick bucks would leave, the ones that are genuine investors want a society in which they can operate smoothly and make profits. What the governments need to do is to provide an enabling environment: deal with irregular power supply, let fuel be widely available, provide security and tackle reckless corruption so that genuine investors won`t sweat for the basic amenities needed to do business. Anyone that is not happy with Buhari`s reform should leave our country and go to South Africa where a tiny minority control the economy while the majority ( mainly blacks) eat the crumbs that fall from their table. Foreign investors, my ass!!

Buhari is not reforming anything. He is taking the country back to the medieval times.

If you term this non-performance, lack of direction, lazy knee-jack approach to problem solving reform, then you do not understand what is called reforms. Pray, what are the reforms anchored on?

On the one hand you would praise Buhari going round the whole world without a single business team and coming back almost empty handed without a concrete investment commitment or proposal by any serious investor, on the other hand you would jubilate the exit of badly needed foreign capital that has assisted in stimulating the financial system for years now. Are you not confused?

The financial markets that you crudely labeled 'casino' includes investors in government bonds. People who buy government assets to enable government fund its projects operate in the so-called 'casino'. Part of Buhari's borrowing plans to fund the 2016 budget is to sell bonds as you may be aware. Won't it be counterproductive to demonize your creditors.

The efforts of the last administrations since 1999 in modernizing the financial system and positioning it for effective financial intermediation and capital accumulation can only be appreciated by forward looking educated folks. For barely educated 'messiah' clamoring people, it is like speaking Greek.

They are saying the reserves went up by 40 million dollars. Who do we believe?


We need long term investors. We don't need short term investors.

Quakertellicus1:
Wailers....food is ready.

On a more serious note...

The problem is that we are not earning enough forex from oil. And we should have saved money last time....but GEJ somehow did not improve on Yaradua's success in raising our ECA to 60bn....he knocked it down to 32bn.

Let's be frank, we have a situation where we are no longer earning enough from oil.(And we are going to earn less as the glut continues) And PMB is not doing what needs to be done....cutting subsides, raising taxes, spending more on power and transport...so that eventually Nigeria would be able to get off oil for good.

Nigeria needs to be free from oil. We need to become a manufacturing power....who manufactures goods for the export market...so that we can be like China....a superpower who gives loans to other poor nations.

So....if you want your ECA imporved....you have to go manufacturing. Oil is a spent force.

Try check the price of oil in 2009 when Yaradua saved that 60bn, oil was between $39 and $42

NavierStokes:
I thought CBN said Nigerians have $20billion sitting idle in their accounts, remittances from diaspora for 2015 was $21billion, so why is the reserve still around $27billion?

Lies everywhere!!!!!

U see yourself? U must just make a comment. The said 20 billion Dollars belong to individual Nigerians and they are just lying in their respective domiciliary accounts. The money does not belong to the state.

Nusaf:

U see yourself? U must just make a comment. The said 20 billion Dollars belong to individual Nigerians and they are just lying in their respective domiciliary accounts. The money does no belong to the state.

And who are these moneys deposited with?

NavierStokes:


And who are these moneys deposited with?

I don't get it. It should be converted to public fund or what?

Nusaf:

I don't get it. It should be converted to public fund or what?

I believe we will both agree that if the govt gets her policies right, all such monies will happily find their way into the system. When the policies are as experienced, then people will rather speculate than allow their money enter into the cycle.

Quakertellicus1:


(The Quaker Tellicus Economic Analysis Report....with Mr QT1)

1.The ECA is dropping because oil prices have stayed low....meaning that we do not have the forex to replenish losses.

2.It is also dropping because we are an import dependent economy. (CBN's restrictive polices have slowed the drop somewhat....it would have been 15bn if CBN had not gone restrictive).

3.Because we still import a lot...plus we import raw materials for our industries (eg..soft drinks)...the prices of goods will go up as manufacturers and importers need more naira to get one dollar.

4.This means that the common man has to pay more for imported goods (like rice) and even locally manufactured goods too,

5.The reason why the govt does not take care of Nigerians well from time immemorial is because governments are not really dependent on taxation, they are dependent on revenue from exports of oil and company.As a result....the sense of accountability is reduced...compared to a govt that is heavily dependent on taxes..who has MORE PRESSURE to perform or out they go.

And that's this morning's QT economic analysis.

(Outro music...)

Honestly, I love your submission

NavierStokes:
I thought CBN said Nigerians have $20billion sitting idle in their accounts, remittances from diaspora for 2015 was $21billion, so why is the reserve still around $27billion?

Lies everywhere!!!!!

Actually, this isn't necessarily a lie... The reserves also depend on the outflows from other parts of the payment balance (BOP)...

Yes,it is true that remittances are inflows on the current account section of the BOP and this should improve BOP and, by extension, the reserves..However, if the overall outflows are more than the inflows, despite the increased inflows, the reserves must still deplete..I suspect that is the case here, although I haven't looked at the numbers as of yet.

Your point that they are liars would be very true if we could establish that the inflows for the period exceeded the outflows, yet reserves depleted! Another area where you could identify a hole is in the area of data integrity..But until someone could actually prove that the BOP data provided only signify lies, it would be difficult to negate the submission in this report.

I am happy to provide more light into the above explanation in case someone still disagrees.

T22

tanimola22:


Actually, this isn't necessarily a lie... The reserves also depend on the outflows from other parts of the payment balance (BOP)...

Yes,it is true that remittances are inflows on the current account section of the BOP and this should improve BOP and, by extension, the reserves..However, if the overall outflows are more than the inflows, despite the increased inflows, the reserves must still deplete..I suspect that is the case here, although I haven't looked at the numbers as of yet.

Your point that they are liars would be very true if we could establish that the inflows for the period exceeded the outflows, yet reserves depleted! Another area where you could identify a hole is in the area of data integrity..But until someone could actually prove that the BOP data provided only signify lies, it would be difficult to negate the submission in this report.

I am happy to provide more light into the above explanation in case someone still disagrees.

T22

quite some explanation. Well I put up that statement to draw attention to the fact that I believe there is a relatively huge amount of forex within the system. Only in august the complaint was that the economy was saturated with dollars and then they implemented some measures and we are again told that there was too little dollars in the system. if the right policies are in place, we both know that issue of "idle dollars" will be unheard of and well utilized within the system.
Thanks a lot for your explanation, took something out of it.

porka:


Repatriation of your entire profit is also a sign that the market's outlook is significantly negative. It is not a positive. .

A percentage of your profit is re-invested in the market if the near to midterm outlook is positive. As you can see, this is not happening.

The market reputation you spoke about has been significantly damaged by the monetary policy which led to the JP Morgan removal of the naira from its index. Simply put, the free entry and exit of capital has been restricted for the better part of the last ten months of Buhari's government.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/jpmorgan-to-remove-nigeria-from-emerging-market-bond-indexes

Even though this particular report dwells on profit taking, you are laboring to assume that there's positive market sentiment. The opposite is the case, as can be seen from aggregate downward movement of the ASI for the past months.

The reason there's no massive capital flight from the NSE in the sense of divestment could be that the CBN is not making forex available for the foreign investors.

Even though Coca Cola made a hostile takeover of Chivita to protect its market share, a deal that predates Buhari's utterly failed presidency, other brands have not fared better. A Bloomberg report quoted the Nestlé chief executive as throwing a jab at the current monetary policy.

You people who defend this government at all cost should stop assuming that people have short memory. Everything has happened in the open and it is unlikely that everyone would be so daft to forget so soon.

It was not long ago that Oshinbajo said openly that they are not bothered about portfolio investments.

Please give me the name of one major company that is disinvesting from Nigeria?

Stock markets in EM countries reflect where the country has been, not where it is going. Pricing does not factor in anything other than a short 12 month outlook and for the increasing amount of US investors we are talking quarters of 3 month. This isn't the first time there has been a massive retreat from the ASI -it happened in the 70's in the 80's and in 2009. Banking which drives a huge percentage of the market runs in ten-year cycles. So do I want to focus on the ASI as a barometer of long-term economic growth? Hell no! The U.S can do it because the stock market reflects public confidence which drives spending and spending drives the US economy. This is not the case in Nigeria. Till date, the Nigerian economy is driven by oil prices as is the ASI

Don't believe me?

Do a simple exercise and overlay the oil price daily over a 10 year ASI index and you will find perfect symmetry. Take the 10-year international palm oil price and do same and hello, you can see good to honest divergence. Good divergence. . If an economy is being restructured, it makes sense to re-think the indices that you use to measure performance. You should be tracking the HDI and associated social impact scores. Nigeria isnt Lagos, neither is it the 5m odd investors in the stock exchange nor the 50 odd portfolio management/funds in the market. The problem most economic experts are failing to understand about re-structuring the economy is that they say the " R" word as a mantra and then go on to use the same indices that support the old economy.

Trickle down economics is dead. At least over the next 3 years. Yes, I can understand that this is distressing. We weren't educated that way, Our hopes dont lie in that direction and its kind of late to change our mind sets BUT that the way it is going to play.

These are the types of scores you should be tracking http://www.socialprogressimperative.org/en/data/spi/countries/NGA

Meanwhile, I would still like the name of one major brand that is divesting and leaving Nigeria. DHL, Procter and Gamblle, Diageo... waiting