olaskul:
Dear friends,

please am a final year student of yabatech and in need of some financial support the money is to repay a debt of 50k which I incurred when my parent house rent was due but the person is hell bent on collecting his money back. Please people help me avert this shame that's about to befall me i plead.

Nairaland stockbroker

Well I pray you find yourself in a desperate situation some day and feel how fun it is bro.

vertueptime:


Nairaland stockbroker

Coolcash1:


The OP is trying to say that at current prices shares are trading now, they are grossly undervalued due to exchange rate effect. To foreign investors, they still appear very very cheap. For instance, Nestle shares rose from N800 to circa of N1,500 due to massive mopping by foreign investors. This has also spread across other stocks especially banking stocks enjoying bullish ride at the moment.

To help the OP, to put the factors responsible for the bullish run succinctly, they are; increase in crude oil prices, stability in forex, creation of import and export forex window, changes in pension rule which allows PFAs to invest 25% of pension funds in the stock market and low return on treasury bills.

Hope this helps...

Great. Thank you

Although, I guess he is trying to tell us that in real term there is no significant growth in the market or something

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debaj10:
1. most investors are in it Long term, 5 to 50+ years.
2. separate them from stockbrokers who play the market.
3. on an average day, only a few companies' stocks pull up or deflate the market.
4. most other companies take a while to rally under bullish (when there are gains) or bearish (losing) trends.

in the news a few weeks ago we were told that about 40% of the companies in the NSE were flat/dormant all year, 2017.

now we're told of massive gains in 2 weeks; and the highest value in 8 years.

here's the economics:
1. divide the value of the NSE in 2009 by the value of the dollar then; do the same for today.
this gives you a general idea of what kind of growth we've had, based on the naira:dollar exchange.

2. when dollar went from N200 to N300, the value of your 100k shares went from $500 to $333. so your broker would advise against selling, because you've actually lost money in real terms.
therefore to know if the increased share price has covered your losses, calculate for dollar value then factor INFLATION into the result- how many more bags of garri can you buy now, compared to when you first bought shares?

3. a breakdown of the sectors will show you how the real sector of the economy ( companies into manufacturing, construction, healthcare, education and agriculture) benefited from the rise in the index, or if investors are only looking to invest in sectors that will yield quick profits- oil and gas, commodities, etc.

4. rule of thumb: economic growth is measured by growth in the real sector, rather than GDP. the oil industry employs relatively few number of people; how the income is channelled into the economy is therefore crucial to nations like ours.
so while increase in crude prices may benefit the GDP through a few companies, it may have very little impact on the economy.

as they say, the devil is in the details.
so hold off on wailing or cheering until you understand the technicalities and have calculated the real value of the NSE.

Awesome one bro! would love to be seeing things like this on a regular.

[quote author=Stycon post=64151840]Op, please what exactly are you driving at

I suggest you start by factoring in exchange rate parity and inflation into your country's GDP growth between 2009 and now first. Then compare it with the NSE performance in real and nominal term. This should give you a better and holistic view of the state of the economy vis a viz NSE

Investors are not father Christmas; so what other reason would they invest if not to profit. Yeah if any economy must have a sustainable growth, real sector investment should be prioritised. I guess you should tell that to your government and not to portfolio investors.

And of course, we should avoid the fallacy of composition when viewing the recent rally in the market as it is clear that it doesn't mirror every unit in the bundle of company represented on the bounce but this doesn't means NSE has not improved in recent time.

Btw, you can do us a favour by giving us a more analytical breakdown of the disparity between the nominal and real performance between 2009 and now with real figure and stop peddling assumptions.
Btw, errrrrrrrrm Op, what are saying sef


In summary I think the OP is trying to state the fact that an increase in GDP shouldn't make one over-exited.

Coolcash1:


The OP is trying to say that at current prices shares are trading now, they are grossly undervalued due to exchange rate effect. To foreign investors, they still appear very very cheap. For instance, Nestle shares rose from N800 to circa of N1,500 due to massive mopping by foreign investors. This has also spread across other stocks especially banking stocks enjoying bullish ride at the moment.

To help the OP, to put the factors responsible for the bullish run succinctly, they are; increase in crude oil prices, stability in forex, creation of import and export forex window, changes in pension rule which allows PFAs to invest 25% of pension funds in the stock market and low return on treasury bills.

Hope this helps...

thanks for the input.
the article is too long for some.
or still too complex for others.
or requires too much work for a few.
they say the best place to hide things from the black man is in a book.
yet my guy's post is less than 1 a4 sheet.

debaj10:
1. most investors are in it Long term, 5 to 50+ years.
2. separate them from stockbrokers who play the market.
3. on an average day, only a few companies' stocks pull up or deflate the market.
4. most other companies take a while to rally under bullish (when there are gains) or bearish (losing) trends.

in the news a few weeks ago we were told that about 40% of the companies in the NSE were flat/dormant all year, 2017.

now we're told of massive gains in 2 weeks; and the highest value in 8 years.

here's the economics:
1. divide the value of the NSE in 2009 by the value of the dollar then; do the same for today.
this gives you a general idea of what kind of growth we've had, based on the naira:dollar exchange.

2. when dollar went from N200 to N300, the value of your 100k shares went from $500 to $333. so your broker would advise against selling, because you've actually lost money in real terms.
therefore to know if the increased share price has covered your losses, calculate for dollar value then factor INFLATION into the result- how many more bags of garri can you buy now, compared to when you first bought shares?

3. a breakdown of the sectors will show you how the real sector of the economy ( companies into manufacturing, construction, healthcare, education and agriculture) benefited from the rise in the index, or if investors are only looking to invest in sectors that will yield quick profits- oil and gas, commodities, etc.

4. rule of thumb: economic growth is measured by growth in the real sector, rather than GDP. the oil industry employs relatively few number of people; how the income is channelled into the economy is therefore crucial to nations like ours.
so while increase in crude prices may benefit the GDP through a few companies, it may have very little impact on the economy.

as they say, the devil is in the details.
so hold off on wailing or cheering until you understand the technicalities and have calculated the real value of the NSE.

That is what we call the purchasing power of the money you have in your pocket today, compare to what that same money can afford in 2009.

That is the reason why the economy is not really growing cause consumers pockets cannot fuel growth.

Our saving grace at moment are CBNs' continuous intervention and thee upward movement oil price.
Ones CBN stop weekly intervention in fx market and oil price falls we will jump fast into Bigger recession.

So, investing in digital currency is the only way to go, period.

Why waiting to vote out Buhari in 2019

Stycon:


Great. Thank you

Although, I guess he is trying to tell us that in real term there is no significant growth in the market or something

in summary:
if you want the real gist, dig deep.
who dey ask question no dey loss.

ican2020:

That is what we call the purchasing power of the money you have in your pocket today, compare to what that same money can afford in 2009.

That is the reason why the economy is not really growing cause consumers pockets cannot fuel growth.

Our saving grace at moment are CBNs' continuous intervention and thee upward movement oil price.
Ones CBN stop weekly intervention in fx market and oil price falls we will jump fast into Bigger recession.

So, investing in digital currency is the only way to go, period.

Why waiting to vote out Buhari in 2019

the govts of most nations are still struggling with the internet, especially how to control it.
you really think Nigerian officials understand anything about crypto currency?
besides, how can you prove that crypto will enable an ENLIGHTENED govt to meet it's infrastructural needs?

Lamore:



Awesome one bro! would love to be seeing things like this on a regular.

thanks.
if only Nigerians harnessed their power...
this world go fear us.

Coolcash1:


The OP is trying to say that at current prices shares are trading now, they are grossly undervalued due to exchange rate effect. To foreign investors, they still appear very very cheap. For instance, Nestle shares rose from N800 to circa of N1,500 due to massive mopping by foreign investors. This has also spread across other stocks especially banking stocks enjoying bullish ride at the moment.

To help the OP, to put the factors responsible for the bullish run succinctly, they are; increase in crude oil prices, stability in forex, creation of import and export forex window, changes in pension rule which allows PFAs to invest 25% of pension funds in the stock market and low return on treasury bills.

Hope this helps...

Both of you aren't saying the same thing. He argued that the upward movement of the all share index was solely based on nominal changes in exchange rate. That point hardly made any sense but i'm not going to dwell on that. You were just trying to correct his ambiguity by stating the accurate reasons.

Besides, the point that was totally off for me was assuming GDP is a variable that is largely determined by oil prices. There is nominal and real GDP. His emphasis was on nominal and he was saying real Economic Growth is based on activities in the real sector and all that. That too itself makes no sense cos it's basically real GDP(that is inflation adjusted) that determines real economic growth. Nominal increases in oil prices doesn't necessarily increase our net exports if other variable in the equation fell in value significantly.

He made good point about the composition of the security market though (even though he slumped money and capital market together). The rest was just like dancing round circles.

Stycon:


Great. Thank you

Although, I guess he is trying to tell us that in real term there is no significant growth in the market or something

bros, abeg o!
my message is that until we look deeper, it's hard to say if the situation has improved.
yes, it's always good to see a rise.
but what if like someone said about 2008, it's just a bubble?
and as another poster said, there's still massive manipulation of figures as well as manipulation in every sector-
1. when was the last time you heard of audited reports?
2. how many untainted auditors are there?
3. how is all this affected by opaque govt data?
4. and ineptitude in high places- the reason for our stunted growth.

nnachukz:

I know you didn't even understand what the op wrote. He said keep off from wailing or hailing until you have understood the technicality of those statements as it reflects on our economy. Factor in inflation, but you won't do that, would you?

Reason why you support failure, you don't read, if you read you don't comprehend.

bros, go back and read it again

debaj10:

bros, abeg o!
my message is that until we look deeper, it's hard to say if the situation has improved.
yes, it's always good to see a rise.
but what if like someone said about 2008, it's just a bubble?
and as another poster said, there's still massive manipulation of figures as well as manipulation in every sector-
1. when was the last time you heard of audited reports?
2. how many untainted auditors are there?
3. how is all this affected by opaque govt data?
4. and ineptitude in high places- the reason for our stunted growth.

I now understand your concern Bro

However, that is more reason why it takes an informed investor to play profitably in the stock market. You need to see beyond what an average investor sees. Bubble or no bubble, you can still profit from stock market ~ if you are a value investor and not a gambler.

Interestingly, on the flip side the more the tide the better for the traders.

I see people jumping on stocks base on bad wagon without doing their homework, and later falling prey to the unavoidable cycle in the market

To be a successful investor, you've gat to look beyond the visible and not just throw your hard earned money into the ocean of uncertainty.

Btw, losing and winning is inevitable in the market but knowledge makes the difference between an investor and a gambler.

spafu:
Why do you like being a zombie?

when buhari enters 2019, commit sucide you hear?

spafu:
I know some useless zombie will come and tell us that Buhari is working.

then who is working? Is it ur FADA?

kaybams1:


Both of you aren't saying the same thing. He argued that the upward movement of the all share index was solely based on nominal changes in exchange rate. That point hardly made any sense but i'm not going to dwell on that. You were just trying to correct his ambiguity by stating the accurate reasons.

Besides, the point that was totally off for me was assuming GDP is a variable that is largely determined by oil prices. There is nominal and real GDP. His emphasis was on nominal and he was saying real Economic Growth is based on activities in the real sector and all that. That too itself makes no sense cos it's basically real GDP(that is inflation adjusted) that determines real economic growth. Nominal increases in oil prices doesn't necessarily increase our net exports if other variable in the equation fell in value significantly.

He made good point about the composition of the security market though (even though he slumped money and capital market together). The rest was just like dancing round circles.

sir, pls kool tempa.
1.

He argued that the upward movement of the all share index was solely based on nominal changes in exchange rate.

is it what I wrote you read?!
shuo!
my whole article is about how the exchange rate and inflation affect share price! how did you get the opposite meaning?!?

2.

Besides, the point that was totally off for me was assuming GDP is a variable that is largely determined by oil prices.

but we're an oil-dependent nation. what other major factor could determine our GDP? N0.9billion tax revenue? yam exports?

3.

That too itself makes no sense cos it's basically real GDP(that is inflation adjusted) that determines real economic growth.

sir, developed nations have stopped using GDP as a growth indicator because of the reasons I gave- it's misleading.
gross domestic index, GDI is the new standard.

4.

Nominal increases in oil prices doesn't necessarily increase our net exports if other variable in the equation fell in value significantly.

but our major export earner is crude oil!
how can you say our net exports are unaffected by increase in crude prices, especially when govt is claiming =>2million BPD?!
and this goes to my main point-
increased valuation of the stock market is VERY LIKELY a DIRECT CORRELATION to increased crude prices; but without any significant or long term economic growth.

but we have to wait for Q1, 2018 reports to see how it affected real sector growth.
thank you.

Stycon:



I now understand your concern Bro

However, that is more reason why it takes an informed investor to play profitably in the stock market. You need to see beyond what an average investor sees. Bubble or no bubble, you can still profit from stock market only if you are a value investor and not a gambler.

Interestingly, on the flip side the more the tide the better for the traders.

I see people jumping on stocks base on bad wagon without doing their homework, and later falling prey to the unavoidable cycle in the market

To be a success investor, you've gat to look beyond the visible and not just throw your hard earned money into the ocean of uncertainty.

Btw, losing and winning is inevitable in the market but knowledge makes the difference between an investor and a gambler.

Tru tok sa.
I hail.

Coolcash1:
Look at the low number of comments on the post simply because it's not about Davido or nudity or snakes. God help this generation.

However, the bull is just a mini one because a major one is about to hit the exchange from next week. Any wise person will try and position him or herself to take advantage of the situation....

..Its because they do not undertand Nothing of value is free..U must go extra miles if u re interested

I read it but I don't understand. Please anyone kind enough to explain? please explain in simple terms cos I really want to know this stuff. Thanks

uba1991:
then who is working? Is it ur FADA?

Your Moda that always grant my father free access to her P_ssy

syncACE:

when buhari enters 2019, commit sucide you hear?

Am I Yusuf Buhari? Or your useless fa.ther who is the first to commit suicide in your village?

spafu:

Am I Yusuf Buhari? Or your useless fa.ther who is the first to commit suicide in your village?

Happy wailing brother

aloeman15:
thanks for the input.
the article is too long for some.
or still too complex for others.
or requires too much work for a few.
they say the best place to hide things from the black man is in a book.
yet my guy's post is less than 1 a4 sheet.

I tend to agree, sometimes I get bored reading long articles. Concise articles, especially on topics like this can prove very beneficial. Anyway the advice and knowledge is timely and anyone who is really interested in forex would take time to read and meditate on it.

aloeman15:
thanks. if only Nigerians harnessed their power... this world go fear us.

very true, ah mean just 'if'

peachesandroses:
I read it but I don't understand. Please anyone kind enough to explain? please explain in simple terms cos I really want to know this stuff. Thanks

just in case you're serious, point out what you find hard to grab?

debaj10:
just in case you're serious, point out what you find hard to grab?

How stock exchange works.

Simply put, it's based on the PERCEIVED value of a company that's listed on the exchange.
If it's seen as valuable, demand for it's shares increases, thereby raising the share price.
If it's seen as reducing in value, people sell their shares, reducing the share price.

How much would you pay for a hot product?
How valuable is pure water in lagos at 5pm, compared to in the Sahara desert at 1pm?

A good example is what happened to blackberry-
PERCEPTION of high value meant the phones were very expensive.
Once whatsapp announced it would stop supporting blackberry devices, the PERCEPTION changed.
But did blackberry phones stop working? Or did BBM, blackberryworld, channels, etc stop?
It was only the one functionality that caused it's handsets to fall in value.
Yes, there were other factors, but they were much less obvious than that announcement.

So, when buying shares it's key to have in-depth knowledge of the company, it's products and both internal factors (human, operations, changes in executives) and external factors (govt policy/currency changes/competition/foreign input).
Hope that helps.

peachesandroses:


How stock exchange works.