Paulosky1900:
enough of these yeye talks......just go and get your PVC I think that's our bullet to shoot him back to his hometown...... Period.

Who is President Buhari going to run against?He will run against himself and win hands down,you will end up casting your vote for him after all these PVC bragging, then you will say you were manipulated and tricked as usual just like how they removed your dundee jona in 2015?Go and study the real science of politics you infant.

Nowenuse:


Nothing but the truth. Unless the elections are heavily rigged in the NC & SW in favour of Buhari, I see no reason how Buhari will win next year. Buhari cannot be president without winning or at least getting half of the votes in the NC & SW, and this would be very difficult for him to get.

I cannot speak for the SW, but in my region the NC, only in Niger state can Buhari get any reasonable votes.

Even with this your analysis, a 70% in NW and NE, a 40% in NC and 50% in SW plus say about 20% from SS and SE, it's still a win for PMB.

4kDdullard:
E go do the dullard like magic

On Twitter and Instagram or at the pooling booths?? INEC does not count Twitter and Instagram votes, INEC counts only pooling booths votes and Buhari has that.

Hmmmm

Nowenuse:






All of you saying Buhari will win Buhari will win, based on northern votes, you guys should not forget that even in 2011 election, Buhari won all the core-northern states and Niger state, yet he still lost the election.

Let's forget it. The people who will determine if Buhari wins or not are the yorubas and middlebelters cos there is no way Buhari can win the SE, SS, SW and NC combined if they vote overwhelmingly for one candidate.

Let's also remember that constitutionally, Buhari needs at least 25% votes from at least 5 Southern states before he can be declared president, regardless of the number of votes he gets from the north.

Now we all that Buhari cannot get up to 25% votes in any SE/SS states except Edo. Will the yorubas give him those votes? This is what we should be bothered by, not necessarily the population of the core-north.

After all these noise President Buhari wil win all the States in Nigeria,like Obiano did in all the local governments in Anambra.

Nowenuse:






All of you saying Buhari will win Buhari will win, based on northern votes, you guys should not forget that even in 2011 election, Buhari won all the core-northern states and Niger state, yet he still lost the election.

Let's forget it. The people who will determine if Buhari wins or not are the yorubas and middlebelters cos there is no way Buhari can win the SE, SS, SW and NC combined if they vote overwhelmingly for one candidate.

Let's also remember that constitutionally, Buhari needs at least 25% votes from at least 5 Southern states before he can be declared president, regardless of the number of votes he gets from the north.

Now we all that Buhari cannot get up to 25% votes in any SE/SS states except Edo. Will the yorubas give him those votes? This is what we should be bothered by, not necessarily the population of the core-north.

Poor reasoning.
How many states in the NC will vote against Buhari? it seems u don't even knw wat u are typing.
or perhaps u were drunk wen u wrote this...

Did you count the children they used? He isnt winning anytin,na daura get am.

Brookinfo:
Kelvin Nwaka, a Facebook user took to his timeline some statistical figures on the 2015 election & factual reasons why President Buhari remains in the position to win in 2019 if he seeks reelection.

He wrote?

-2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS BY GEOPOLITICAL ZONEZ

South East
Buhari 198,248
Jonathan 2,464,906

South South
Buhari 418,590 Jonathan 4,714,725

South West
Buhari 2,433,193
Jonathan 1,821,416

North Central
Buhari 2,411,013
Jonathan 1,715,818

North East
Buhari 2,848,678
Jonathan 796,580

North West
Buhari 7,115,199
Jonathan 1,339,709

EXISTED FACTS IN 2015 BUT NOW ABSENT.

(1) Jonathan was the incumbent President, with plenty of funds from the Central Bank to share. This is no longer available to the next PDP candidate.

(2) PDP had above twenty Governors in 2015 and now they have just eleven, thereby reducing their areas of influence.

(3) PDP had Ministers from all the States in 2015 and now has none.

(4) Ondo and Ekiti States from the South West, were under the PDP, Ondo is gone and Ekiti will hold elections in July, 2018 and may be lost to APC.

(5) Anambra Governor worked for Jonathan in 2015, but will not work for PDP in 2019, because of the crisis between Obiano and Obi.

(6) Agricultural revolution, especially that of rice had not taken place in Kebbi and so many other states in 2015 as it is now.

(7) Boko haram has not been decimated in 2015 as it is now. More votes will certainly come to Buhari, from the North East because of this.

( The recent PDP Convention ostracized the South West, with a lot of PDP Yoruba Chieftains like Obanikoro, Folarin, Doyin Okukpe and a host of others leaving the party.

(9) The protracted PDP crisis between Modu Sheriff and Markafi, also led to the exodus of some key members of the party.

(10) No more religious and tribal cards in 2019, as was played by Jonathan and PDP in the entire Southern part of the country in 2015.

(11) Above all, Buhari is the working and workaholic incumbent. Patriotic and sensible Nigerians are beginning to see the positive side of him.

– Is his ascertions right? Please let’s have your thoughts about this.

https://brookinfo.com/facts-why-buhari-will-win-2019-election-kelvin-nwaka/

(12) There isn't a Jonathan and PDP will likely to field a northern muslim. Hence campaigning in churches wunt be necessary.

Suplexx:


Abia has one of the least number of registered voters. It is number 25 on the list of highest registered voters. It has 1.3 registered voters. Only higher than Bayelsa, Ekiti, Abuja, Yobe, Taraba, Nasarawa, Kwara, Kogi, Gombe, Ebonyi and Cross Rivers. The number of voters in each state almost mirrored the states population table. So the census are even kind of correct.

Every census from time, even before 1960 have always had it that the North is more populated.

Just look at every census from beginning.

The question is how did Abia have 1.1 million votes in 2011? Are they saying everyone who registered in 2011 voted? Had had almost 100% turnout where states in North and South West were having 30-40% turn out.

When card reader was used, the percentage turnout of voters from SE and SS aligned with the rest of the country.

low turnout was observed in Abia not because of any card reader issue but because of IPOB directives.

when I read articles like this I laugh. let me tell una, Buhari invade he decided to recontest will start his loss in the north. d hardship in Nigeria is not felt by only southerners. d northerners are even d most hit of all. am patiently waiting for 2019. una go see surprises

senatordave1:

Chairman,no northerner can win buhari in their own state.it will not divide the votes.the only place votes will be divided is taraba,benue,plateau,nasarawa,kogi.the rest are one way.the yorubas will prefer a buhari they know with a yoruba as the vice than an unknown northerner sir.if buhari loses the north central,it will be marginally.

Then you have not been following politics, how did buhari got 7million votes in 2011? If votes were not divided? He didn't win because the other regions voted massively for that other party, and that's what PDP needs this time.
Get at least 30 or 40% of North west north east, get at least 45% of north central, clear SE and SS, get 30 or 40% of SW and that's all.

Buhari will win Kano but definitely not with 1.9m votes

AbaNgele:



low turnout was observed in Abia not because of any card reader issue but because of IPOB directives.

Please look for another lie.

They boycotted both governorship and Presidential elections? So IPOB were angry with GEJ regime that they didn't vote for him?

PrecisionFx:



There's never a need to rig Eastern Nigeria votes against buhari.


Go Figure.
.

There was a need to boost the figures of the PDP candidate

Said BABA





till 2023

Annie939:
keep deceiving your self

Keep and continue doubting it till 2023.

HeroicMeastro:

Poor reasoning.
How many states in the NC will vote against Buhari? it seems u don't even knw wat u are typing.
or perhaps u were drunk wen u wrote this...

How many states in NC will vote for Buhari, that is what you should ask your ignorant self.

Even in 2015, Buhari could not win Nasarawa, Plateau & FCT, how much now that many people are tired of him and see him as a disgrace?

Buhari is certainly loosing Benue and no one needs to explain the reason why to a political ignoramus like you.

Buhari is also loosing Kogi, because Yahaya Bello's display of stupidity has made APC to be hated by most Igalas & Okuns. Only Ebiras are still loyalists of APC, and only their votes cannot help Buhari win Kogi.

As for Kwara, Saraki controls the state and he is certainly no longer pro Buhari. Niger state is the only state Buhari can win in the NC.

EazyMoh:

Even with this your analysis, a 70% in NW and NE, a 40% in NC and 50% in SW plus say about 20% from SS and SE, it's still a win for PMB.

Buhari cannot get up to 5% in the SE/SS, let alone 20%.

Even in 2015 when many people had high hopes for Buhari, he got less than 10% in both the SS\SE. How much now that people are drastically dissapointed in him?

Buhari cannot get up to 40% in the NC, at most 30%. .. Niger state is the only state he is sure of winning next year.

mvem:
..middle belt like jos,nassarawa,fct,kogi or so....na still north and same thing is still obtainable...SW like the swinging States in US election, we are watching them...

I do not waste my time on ignorant people cos I see you as one.

Buhari has never won elections in Jos-Plateau & Nasarawa before. Not even in 2015, he lost both states. So why should he win now, when the masses are dissapointed in him and have seen that he has nothing to offer?

Nowenuse:


Buhari cannot get up to 5% in the SE/SS, let alone 20%.

Even in 2015 when many people had high hopes for Buhari, he got less than 10% in both the SS\SE. How much now that people are drastically dissapointed in him?

Buhari cannot get up to 40% in the NC, at most 30%. .. Niger state is the only state he is sure of winning next year.

Oga leave that thing. A party controlling federal level has always had tremendous effect in the outcome of SS and SE, fact. There are already pressure groups from SE that have endorsed PMB for 2019. Couple that with how easy it is to buy votes from that side.
Even at that, 70% of NW is more than 100% of SE+SS!
Try and calculate 70% NW&NE + 30%NC + 50%SW + 5% SE&SS is still greater than the rest!

EazyMoh:

Oga leave that thing. A party controlling federal level has always had tremendous effect in the outcome of SS and SE, fact. There are already pressure groups from SE that have endorsed PMB for 2019. Couple that with how easy it is to buy votes from that side.
Even at that, 70% of NW is more than 100% of SE+SS!
Try and calculate 70% NW&NE + 30%NC + 50%SW + 5% SE&SS is still greater than the rest!

No, Oga you are wrong! Let us use the last election figures as an example. Look at the screenshot below and do the mathematics.

Buhari got 82% of the NW votes last election, while GEJ got 92% of the SE/SS votes.
Add the votes of the SE/SS and it is exactly 7,179,631....which is more than that of the NW at 7,115,199.
So, you should know that the votes of the SS/SE can always neutralize that of the NW! ......now remember, the NW is most likely to drop from the 82% they gave Buhari last election. So, Buhari is on the loosing side here.

Let us assume that the SW is 50/50 which neutralizes itself.

This therefore leaves us with the NE & NC. Now, doing the calculations again, Buhari got 72% votes of the NE last election and 71% of the NC.

Now imagine the NC which is more populated than the NE drop to 30% while the NE (which will also definitely drop), now drops to like 60%. ......Buhari is already a gonner, however the margin will not be too much.

Brookinfo:
Kelvin Nwaka, a Facebook user took to his timeline some statistical figures on the 2015 election & factual reasons why President Buhari remains in the position to win in 2019 if he seeks reelection.

He wrote?

-2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS BY GEOPOLITICAL ZONEZ

South East
Buhari 198,248
Jonathan 2,464,906

South South
Buhari 418,590 Jonathan 4,714,725

South West
Buhari 2,433,193
Jonathan 1,821,416

North Central
Buhari 2,411,013
Jonathan 1,715,818

North East
Buhari 2,848,678
Jonathan 796,580

North West
Buhari 7,115,199
Jonathan 1,339,709

EXISTED FACTS IN 2015 BUT NOW ABSENT.

(1) Jonathan was the incumbent President, with plenty of funds from the Central Bank to share. This is no longer available to the next PDP candidate.

(2) PDP had above twenty Governors in 2015 and now they have just eleven, thereby reducing their areas of influence.

(3) PDP had Ministers from all the States in 2015 and now has none.

(4) Ondo and Ekiti States from the South West, were under the PDP, Ondo is gone and Ekiti will hold elections in July, 2018 and may be lost to APC.

(5) Anambra Governor worked for Jonathan in 2015, but will not work for PDP in 2019, because of the crisis between Obiano and Obi.

(6) Agricultural revolution, especially that of rice had not taken place in Kebbi and so many other states in 2015 as it is now.

(7) Boko haram has not been decimated in 2015 as it is now. More votes will certainly come to Buhari, from the North East because of this.

( The recent PDP Convention ostracized the South West, with a lot of PDP Yoruba Chieftains like Obanikoro, Folarin, Doyin Okukpe and a host of others leaving the party.

(9) The protracted PDP crisis between Modu Sheriff and Markafi, also led to the exodus of some key members of the party.

(10) No more religious and tribal cards in 2019, as was played by Jonathan and PDP in the entire Southern part of the country in 2015.

(11) Above all, Buhari is the working and workaholic incumbent. Patriotic and sensible Nigerians are beginning to see the positive side of him.

– Is his ascertions right? Please let’s have your thoughts about this.

https://brookinfo.com/facts-why-buhari-will-win-2019-election-kelvin-nwaka/

just look at fake info how ppl are in the north in total ......the last time i check lagos has the highest population of abt 20million and sombody will b claming he owns evry tin .see keep decieving ur self pvc will save us

obailala:
The argument isnt about winning the election, it rather about scratching at least 25% of the votes for his party. And you will agree with me that it's quite rare to see an incumbent lose an election without even getting up to 25%

Although PDP controlled Abj but Rochas couldn't secure that 25% for Buhari and I am sure it would be worse this time with Buhari in Abj.

legendte:

Although PDP controlled Abj but Rochas couldn't secure that 25% for Buhari and I am sure it would be worse this time with Buhari in Abj.

I said it was 'very rare' for that to happen. Especially in diehard strongholds. E.g. expecting APC to get 25% in the SE or SS, or expecting PDP to get 25% in katsina or kano.

obailala:
I said it was 'very rare' for that to happen. Especially in diehard strongholds. E.g. expecting APC to get 25% in the SE or SS, or expecting PDP to get 25% in katsina or kano.

Well let's wait and see what happens when we know the candidates

Quite a lot of ignorant political analysts here. I'm not a seer and as much as I would prefer to try someone else, 2019 is Buhari's to lose if no major decamping happens before 2019.
No living northern candidate can defeat Buhari even in their own state of origin. Buhari will defeat Atiku in Adamawa, Dankwambo in Gombe and Lamido in Jigawa respectively.
Buhari will win the NW with over 80%, the NE with over 70% - Taraba will be the exception, the NC with at least 50%- will win Niger, Kwara, Kogi, and get at least 40% in Nasarawa, and 30% in Plateau and Benue. Ethnic and religious sentiments are the better reasons for Buhari to lose some northern (middle-belt) votes, not one paper weight Northern candidate. This outcome is almost sure irrespective of who challenges Buhari.
Now the only way the PDP can perform well in the election (though won't be enough to win it) is if it presents Donald Duke as its candidate. Duke's candidacy will reduce the voter apathy in the entire south because many in the south would rather watch TV than queue up for Buhari or Atiku.
Duke can win over 80% in the SS and SE. Unfortunately, the NW will neutralise that. While the SW being the most sophisticated voting region could give Duke over 60% and Buhari 40%.That way the SW can neutralise the NE a little.
If it is Buhari vs another northerner, the SW will easily go for Buhari in the midst of huge voter apathy.
Anyhow we look at it, though not my most preferred choice but Buhari wins it eventually.

Nowenuse:


How many states in NC will vote for Buhari, that is what you should ask your ignorant self.

Even in 2015, Buhari could not win Nasarawa, Plateau & FCT, how much now that many people are tired of him and see him as a disgrace?

Buhari is certainly loosing Benue and no one needs to explain the reason why to a political ignoramus like you.

Buhari is also loosing Kogi, because Yahaya Bello's display of stupidity has made APC to be hated by most Igalas & Okuns. Only Ebiras are still loyalists of APC, and only their votes cannot help Buhari win Kogi.

As for Kwara, Saraki controls the state and he is certainly no longer pro Buhari. Niger state is the only state Buhari can win in the NC.

You are good in your analysis your attention is needed here; https://www.nairaland.com/4320919/projected-atikus-masterstroke-statistical-analyses

Nowenuse:



No, Oga you are wrong! Let us use the last election figures as an example. Look at the screenshot below and do the mathematics.

Buhari got 82% of the NW votes last election, while GEJ got 92% of the SE/SS votes.
Add the votes of the SE/SS and it is exactly 7,179,631....which is more than that of the NW at 7,115,199.
So, you should know that the votes of the SS/SE can always neutralize that of the NW! ......now remember, the NW is most likely to drop from the 82% they gave Buhari last election. So, Buhari is on the loosing side here.

Let us assume that the SW is 50/50 which neutralizes itself.

This therefore leaves us with the NE & NC. Now, doing the calculations again, Buhari got 72% votes of the NE last election and 71% of the NC.

Now imagine the NC which is more populated than the NE drop to 30% while the NE (which will also definitely drop), now drops to like 60%. ......Buhari is already a gonner, however the margin will not be too much.

Keep dreaming!
There will never the same turnout in SS/SE in 2019 when the contest is between two northerners and 2015 when it was virtually The north versus SS/SE.
The big question is who is even that candidate to make PMB's vote drop as significantly as you are postulating?
And no way on earth PMB's vote would decrease in the NE! Also in the NW as of then 2015 PDP controlled states like Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara and the likes I saw them buying votes as high as N2k in the NW alone which amounted to GEJ getting even up to over 10%
In my state Jigawa GEJ got over 300k votes then, all due to the state under PDP governorship and massive campaign funds at their disposal. This time around it is APC in control, and they are ready too to share that money while PDP is completely handicapped.
So definitely PMB's votes will increase in both NE and NW.
Likewise SW definitely PDP fortune will dwindle giving the fact that the party has relegated the region. It lacks appeal or any bigwigs to change its narrative strongly. Coupled with unavailability of public funds to doll out. a 50-50 is even far fetched.
I need one thing from you, promise me you will create a thread declaring EazyMoh your political mentor when PMB eventually wins in 2019, and don't try to claim anything rigging. Cheers!

olujastro:
Quite a lot of ignorant political analysts here. I'm not a seer and as much as I would prefer to try someone else, 2019 is Buhari's to lose if no major decamping happens before 2019.
No living northern candidate can defeat Buhari even in their own state of origin. Buhari will defeat Atiku in Adamawa, Dankwambo in Gombe and Lamido in Jigawa respectively.
Buhari will win the NW with over 80%, the NE with over 70% - Taraba will be the exception, the NC with at least 50%- will win Niger, Kwara, Kogi, and get at least 40% in Nasarawa, and 30% in Plateau and Benue. Ethnic and religious sentiments are the better reasons for Buhari to lose some northern (middle-belt) votes, not one paper weight Northern candidate. This outcome is almost sure irrespective of who challenges Buhari.
Now the only way the PDP can perform well in the election (though won't be enough to win it) is if it presents Donald Duke as its candidate. Duke's candidacy will reduce the voter apathy in the entire south because many in the south would rather watch TV than queue up for Buhari or Atiku.
Duke can win over 80% in the SS and SE. Unfortunately, the NW will neutralise that. While the SW being the most sophisticated voting region could give Duke over 60% and Buhari 40%.That way the SW can neutralise the NE a little.
If it is Buhari vs another northerner, the SW will easily go for Buhari in the midst of huge voter apathy.
Anyhow we look at it, though not my most preferred choice but Buhari wins it eventually.

Don't mind these political babies they think PMB is an ordinary northerner.
Can't they just look at the APC primary elections? Atiku is their best bet yet PMB tripled him! Not to talk of having the power of incumbency.

Buhari is most likely to win going by the desperation of his men in key positions in the country's security apparatus and INEC. Also, let's not forget this government is very ready to dole out corrupt funds to prosecute the relection bid of President Burhari.
However, with the precedence he set in term of appointments and poor handling of the fragile Nigeria unity, I foresee a divided Nigeria in terms of political and economic unrest. His archaic policies will further divide Nigeria into ethnic and religious lines and this will herald the shout for division of the country from the Yoruba.
consequently, a Yoruba shout for division will spell doom for our already fragile unity. The Yorubas have been the unity factor in Nigeria.
Finally, I have great fear for the man Burhari if he doesn't work to change his style of leadership. He might erode the good will he has enjoyed even from his teeming supporters and end up as Nigeria's worst.

olujastro:
Quite a lot of ignorant political analysts here. I'm not a seer and as much as I would prefer to try someone else, 2019 is Buhari's to lose if no major decamping happens before 2019.
No living northern candidate can defeat Buhari even in their own state of origin. Buhari will defeat Atiku in Adamawa, Dankwambo in Gombe and Lamido in Jigawa respectively.
Buhari will win the NW with over 80%, the NE with over 70% - Taraba will be the exception, the NC with at least 50%- will win Niger, Kwara, Kogi, and get at least 40% in Nasarawa, and 30% in Plateau and Benue. Ethnic and religious sentiments are the better reasons for Buhari to lose some northern (middle-belt) votes, not one paper weight Northern candidate. This outcome is almost sure irrespective of who challenges Buhari.
Now the only way the PDP can perform well in the election (though won't be enough to win it) is if it presents Donald Duke as its candidate. Duke's candidacy will reduce the voter apathy in the entire south because many in the south would rather watch TV than queue up for Buhari or Atiku.
Duke can win over 80% in the SS and SE. Unfortunately, the NW will neutralise that. While the SW being the most sophisticated voting region could give Duke over 60% and Buhari 40%.That way the SW can neutralise the NE a little.
If it is Buhari vs another northerner, the SW will easily go for Buhari in the midst of huge voter apathy.
Anyhow we look at it, though not my most preferred choice but Buhari wins it eventually.

lol
i just dey read comment dey laugh.
less than a year to election, there is no one that looks like can oppose Buhari.
As at this time last year, it was already clear that there was a force trying to unseat a sitting president...
what do we have today few months to elections?
Buhari still has enough time to win the hearts on the NC, he has started already...u can see what is happening in Benue already, military and police now securing lives and going after killer herdsmen, he visited Nassarawa already, u saw the turn out, Just a well timed visit to some of this states will do magic. lol. The same way the postponement of elections to "secure some local governments" in the North east which was actually done did some magic for Jonathan. There is no PDP in the SW asides Fayose, lol, PDP will not even smell as much votes as they got in 2015 with the outcome of the PDP convention. Na only death or if Buhari nor contest fit make am loose the elections.

dasparrow:
Buhari will win only because he is going to rig the elections. I pity Nigerians. Your suffering is about to continue.

I don't pity them. They brought it on themselves. Hell going by buhari's actions and some of his words, i personally believe he's going to go the Abacha route and keep himself ruler longer than the 8 years.

You don't give someone desperate for power, power. They will never let go. They are about to learn this the hard way. Goodluck to them. They did this to themselves.

Nowenuse:


Governorship elections and Presidential elections are a different thing. In the case of Anambra, even though Tony Nwoye was an APC candidate, he was still an Igbo man.

This was the reason why APC (Buhari) lost Plateau & Nasarawa states in the last presidential elections, but APC governors won in both states......

You are the one deceiving yourself Mr and your eyes will clear that day.

Is the 2019 presidential election going to be between Buhari and a southerner or Igbo man if i may ask you?

It is going to be between a fulani and a fulani and you believe that all Anambra will vote for the fulani of PDP and will not vote for the fulani of APC.

Before Anambra election we heard how you guys boasted that Nwoye will not even come 5th because he joined Islamic party but the results cleared you doubt.

The 2019 presidential election will showed you that you can only talk of your own one vote and not others own.


The truth was that Plateau and Nassarawa was just too close to the FCT and it was easy for the federal government to rig this states for PDP at that times.

It will be so naive of you to really believe that ministers and political appointees from this states can not come together and deliver 25% for Mr president in their respective states.

Write it down that Buhari will win 2019 election with a wider margin than in 2015.