₦airaland Forum

kabrudrapist:
Great analysis. Front page worthy.
Imhotep.

tomakint:
I am sure you have basic cognitive skills challenge why can't you read and beg those who understand to break it down for you.

oyatz:
President Buhari has failed abysmally to take Nigeria out of the woods but majority of the people that are opposing his re-election are doing so out of emotional hatred for the president( mainly because the president is not from their ethnic background or practice their religion) rather than genuine altruistic reasons to see a better Nigeria.
This will make it very difficult to defeat him in 2019.

seunmsg:
In short, PDP does not need south west votes to return to power. Great analysis. South west will stick with APC as implied in your post. Good job tomakint and good luck to PDP. Don't come back and cry of betrayal after 2019 presidential election.

sarrki:
Shut up

Emergency political analyst

What the population of each region

You need to bring that to to the burner

Also numbers of eligible voters in each region

We know your type

If it is not PDP and enemies of the state you won't support anything good

nwabobo:
Until we know the numbers of registered voters by states of origin, one can not really say for sure. You and I know majority of registered voters of South East origin live outside the SE and are registered there. That's why despite all APC and oba's noise, PDP still gave them a run for their money in Lagos.

gidgiddy:
Total boycott of the 2019 elections in the SS/SE zone!

We are tired of "one Nigeria" and want our independence referendum

People have been voting in Nigeria since the 50's and nothing positive has come out of it. It is now time to stop this voting charade, which is all about 'selecting' the next thief into office, and face self determination.

2019 election boycott in the SS/SE!

Dont be used to select the next generation looters!

Nigeria will never work as a nation, not even if the best person in the world is elected to run it.

Seek your independence and change your land. This is what is important, not endless rounds of voting to elect looters

Firstpage:
How many igbos are there in Kano? Yet PDP couldn't produce 100,000 votes in the state. Or are there no ibos in the north more the south west? Yet nothing came from them in 2015.

The earlier you naive "political analysts" come to terms with the fact that non- indigenes vote in the direction of their host or are systematically disenfranchised in Nigeria, the better for you.

I've been involved in elections and I know how it goes. For example, you can't vote against buhari in katsina even though you are igbo and hate him. The earlier you kids forming PDP votes in South West is from igbos know this the better.

nwabobo:
I hear you. Igbos voted APC in the last gubernatorial election in Laos. In fact, PDP rigged to have had such a close call.

You go dey alright las las.

Firstpage:
Igbos also voted PDP in Oyo, ogun, osun, Ekiti.

But igbos couldn't vote PDP in Kano, Kaduna, sokoto, Jos......

May you be cured of your delusion.

nwabobo:
This is what you get when contraceptives fail.

Firstpage:
This is what you get when prostitutes get pregnant.

tomakint:
ELECTION IS A GAME OF NUMBERS: POLITICAL LESSON SOUTHWEST MUST LEARN!

In this piece, I am going to analytically examine the political influence of Southwest in the  2011 and 2015 Presidential Elections in Nigeria and their impacts.

2011 number of Registered Voters for election = 73,528,040

2011 number of Registered Voters who voted = 39,469,484

2011 number of valid votes counted = 38,209,978

2011 number of invalid votes not counted = 1,259,506

2011 number of Registered Voters who did not vote = 34,058,556

2011 votes scored by Presidential candidates:
Dr. Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) = 22,495,187
Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (CPC) = 12,214,853

PDP won the election with a margin of 10,280,334 votes.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

2015 number of Registered Voters for election = 68,833,476

2015 number of Registered Voters who voted = 29,432,083

2015 number of valid votes counted = 28,587,564

2015 number of invalid votes not counted = 844,519

2015 number of Registered Voters who did not vote = 39,401,393

2015 votes scored by Presidential candidates:
Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (APC) = 15,424,921
Dr. Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) = 12,853,162

APC won the election with a margin of 2,572,759 votes. Too close to call.

Going by the 2015 elections, let's assume we remove this winning margin (2,572,759) from the 39 million + that never voted, you have over 36 million that can cause damage to any political party if only these undecided or nonchalant voters are well courted and encouraged on the importance for them to vote.  Catching 70% of these lots is ok for a winning party with a plan.

We have almost 40 million Nigerians that did not vote in 2015 and the questions are; Who are they? Where are they and which party and candidates will they vote for in 2019? Are they willing to be convinced now to vote in 2019 or still back off like they did in 2015? Which of the candidates will likely catch their fancies? Time will tell very soon but not without the cooperation and sincerity of operations on the part of INEC that appears compromised through the illegal registration of underage voters up North.

My prediction is that any party that penetrates social media, presents a vibrant and formidable well known candidate that understands how modern politics affects the masses and aids employments drive and can articulate this very well in form of his manifestoes before the public and do lots of grass-root works will definitely win 2019 Presidential Elections!

The Alleged SouthWest Influence In Presidential Elections: Busting The Myth!

The PDP National Convention has come and gone, though many are comfortable with the outcome, but few are not, believing that they were sidelined. These few are the Southwest political gladiators in the convention ground who felt they were shortchanged and promised to fight the party's newly elected leadership structure to a halt. They believe it will be a political disaster for the PDP to ignore them in the scheme of things especially as 2019 election approaches.  Well, the facts are stated below on what Southwest importance is to a Presidential elections using 2011 and 2015 examples, we can only hope that the Southwest will prove us wrong in 2019.

2011 Presidential Elections

In 2011 elections, the National election turnout was 52.3%, while turn out in the North was 52.8%, turn out in South East (66.9) and South South (67.0%) while South West was 32.8% and they repeated this low turn out in 2015 again.

It must be noted that other regions either fell within the national average or exceeded it, South West was the only region that went below it by 37%, while South East and South South both exceeded it by 27.0%.

At the end of the election, out of the 16,290,593 votes cast in the South, the South West contributed 28.3% by casting only 4,613,712 votes, leaving South East and South South to provide the remaining 71.7%, casting 11,676,881 from both regions.

Out of this 16,290,593 votes cast in the South, 13,890,271 votes were cast for PDP. South West (with 6 States) even though it has the highest population in the South contributed only 20% of those votes by casting 2,786,417 votes, leaving South East (with 5 States) with the lowest population and South South (with 6 States) with the median population to contribute the other 80%, at 36% and 44% respectively and casting 4,985,246 and 6,118,608 votes respectively. In this case, South West contributed only 12.3% of the entire 22,495,187 votes PDP got at the election, South East and South South contributed 49.4%, leaving the entire North (3 regions) and FCT to provide the other 38.3%

It is important to point out that while South East gave 98.3% of their votes to PDP, South South gave 96.3%, while South West 60.4%, making them the only region that doesn't give bloc votes, while South East and South south remain PDP's strongest holds.

2015 Presidential Elections

In 2015, South West gave 1,851,416 votes to PDP while 2,433,193 votes went to APC, making APC win South West by a meager votes of 581,777 advantage. Anambra in the South East rendered useless this plus of 581,777 votes in Southwest by giving PDP 660,762, returning advantage to PDP by 78,985 votes.

It is important to point out that since majority of the 1,851,416 votes to PDP were gotten from Igbo dominated areas, should South West vote the way they did in 2015, Anambra will always be on ground to restore advantage. South West gave 43.2% of their votes to PDP, South East gave 93.0% of their votes to PDP while South South gave 91.8%. This again confirms South East and South south as PDP's strongest holds and South West as the only region that doesn't give bloc votes in the South. Again, South West contributed 14.4% of the total PDP's votes of 12,853,162 and 15.8% of APC's votes, South South and South East contributed 55.9% of PDP's votes and 4.0% of APC's votes leaving the entire North and FCT to contibute the other 29.7% of PDP's votes and 80.2% of APC's votes.

This is captured here under these four determining factors;

1. In 2011, assuming South West gave 100% of their votes to Buhari's CPC who came second and gave nothing to PDP and other parties, Jonathan's PDP would have still won the election by 5,771,459 votes.
This is captured here; South West voted 2,786,417 for PDP; 1,369,943 for ACN; 321,609 to CPC and 30,906 for ANPP. (totalling 4,508,875 votes which if subtracted from the winning margin of PDP's 10,280,334 will still give PDP a huge 5,771,459 margin)

2. In 2015, assuming South West as a region decided not to vote at all, Buhari would have still won by 1,989,982 votes. 

3. In 2015, assuming South West APC decided not to vote, allowing only South West PDP to vote for Jonathan, Buhari would have still won by 138,566 votes.

4. Maybe as a result of faulty card readers recorded in the South East and South South during the election, which even caused His Excellency, the former President, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, to try 7 times before being captured. The turn out in SE fell from 66.9% in 2011 to 37% in 2015 and turn out in the South South fell from 67% in 2011 to 56% in 2015, while South West got the same turn out as in 2011. In the North, turn out in 2015 was 54.4% in Kebbi, 60% in Zamfara, while Boko Haram infested Borno, Adamawa and Yobe had an average turn out of 41.7%. 

Assuming South East and South South alone voted in 2015 the way they did in 2011, with the other 4 regions and FCT voting like they did in 2015, Jonathan would have gotten 16,777,385 votes, beating Buhari with 1,352,464 votes.

In summary, experience from 1999 has taught us that South West PDP supporters are mainly Igbos and Niger Deltans, while South West APC (which metamorphosed from ACN) are mainly Yorubas. Statistics from 2011 Presidential election equally confirms this. In that year, South West as a region alone, fielding a Northerner, Mallam Ribadu running on a Yoruba regional party ACN, gave the party 65.9% of its total votes, while contributing 89% of the Party's votes from the South; and South East and South South provided the other 11%. This same statistics reflected in the 2007 Presidential Elections when His Excellency, the former Vice President, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku, ran on the ACN (then AC) platform.

As it stands today, the South West appears incapacitated to offer bloc votes. Hence, no matter who South West APC vote for, they clearly lack the bloc votes (despite having the capacity) that can influence the outcome of any Presidential election. Their votes are just formalities at least judging from the simple analysis above and this ought not to be so in this modern age of electoral reforms and awareness! This is to bury the myth that Southwest are power changers in the political terrain of Nigeria except they choose to walk the talk in 2019 by turning out to vote in their large numbers as experienced in other geopolitical zones within the Southern region. It is crystal clear that votes from Southwest are mainly buoyed by votes from Northwest and Northeast since 2011 till date with the clear exception of 1999 when most Southwesterners voted enmasse for Chief Olu Falae, candidate of the AD/APP merged party as against a fellow Southerner, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP.

To buttress on this, I will use the 2011 Presidential elections as my example. In the South, the Southwest recorded the lowest number of eventual voters from those that were registered by INEC. In the Southwest, 14,296,163 registered as voters only 4,613,712 (32%) turned out to vote leaving out a huge 9,682,451 (68%) registered voters that failed to vote. Southeast had 7,577,212 as registered voters and ended up producing 5,072,321 (67%) eventual voters leaving a mere 2,504,891 (33%) electorates who failed to turn up for the voting exercise. The South-south zone had 9,474,427 registered voters and 6,351,116 (67%) turned up to vote while 3,123,311 (33%) failed to show up. Judging from the above, it is no brainer to conclude that Southwest appears to be the weakest link in the region despite being in a better position to deliver bloc votes but keeps denying itself of such potentials because of negligence and laziness of the electorates due to poor education on the importance of voting. I think if Southwest must be taken seriously as a force to reckon with,  it needs to work on its lapses which  had become somewhat perennial. 

I conclude by saying, if election must counts in this coming 2019 then we all have a lot to do for the sake of our future as citizens of this great country and as stakeholders. Many people turned up in the electoral exercise of 2011 than what was experienced in 2015 which is not a good trend. 2019 beckons, and we have many roles to play by turning out in our large numbers more than what we gave in 2011 and make sure our votes count. 

I Urge You All To Do The RSVP – Register, Select, Vote and Protect.
Register – Register With INEC, Pick Your Permanent Voters Card-PVC;
Select - Select Your Party of Choice and Candidate; 
Vote – Vote not Fight and;
Protect – Protect Your Vote.

Author: Tomakint

tomakint:
Very empty and shallow analysis. Who hates Buhari? Buhari hates himself by surrounding himself with fellow dullards which made him to repeat the mistakes of Jonathan 10times and you are here forming one miserable analyst with empty posts. 2019 beckons don't get caught rigging for Buhari or that may be your last. Be a lover of good things for once in your life, nothing good is in Buhari for the past 3 years.

oyatz:
You just confirmed the emotional hatred I referred to by going unnecessarily personal.

Who told you I am a fan of Buhari let alone planning to rig for him or anybody?

About 12 months before the presidential election, the opposition hasn't rallied round a formidable nationally accepted candidate with track record of achievements and verifiable requisite experience ,so how do you exepect to defeat Buhari?
Name the candidate that's fully on ground in at least 24 States.

oyatz:
So many inexperienced political analysts wrongly assume that ethnic/religious considerations are the ONLY reasons people vote for a particular candidate.

Thousands of Hausa-Fulani, Kanuri, Bolewa, Ngizim,Berom also voted for Jonathan in 2015, not necessarily because they loved Jonathan but because they ware PDP members/supporters who knew that if Jonathan should go down, their own political relevance and patronage/survival will also go down.
In Osun State for instance, it will be very difficult for APC members to be campaigning and vote for Jonathan or PDP members in Sokoto to be campaigning and vote for Buhari because doing so will mean they were blocking their chances to power/patronage.


This foolish animals from the east are bent on destroying this forum and seun is looking aloof. They create so many asinine threads to show how backward they think. Imagine someone claiming the votes PDP got in the SW was from ibos only. They don't even understand what party politics mean. They think politicians are tribalists. That's why they will always fail in politics. A politician only fights for his own interest. Pdp got a sizable Votes for Jonathan in Ogun State despite the fact that Osinbajo is from the state.

tomakint:
Alhaji Abubakar Atiku!

Atiku In His Own Words;

Below are what Atiku said with his own mouth and you have the right to query or question or probe him on this, you have your conscience intact, so you be the judge yourself;

 “People say I became rich in government. It’s a lie. I had hundreds of millions of dollars in assets declared in 1999. I was able to personally bankroll the Peoples Democratic Party back then, so surely, I was not poor.” (Atiku responding to the allegations that he enriched himself while in office as Vice President)

“I Go Dye, I’m not a messiah. I do not promise Eldorado or $1 = N1, but I always ask that we should look at the economic progress we made under my leadership and what I am doing in private business and judge me by those.”  (Atiku's response to "I Go Dye", a Nigerian popular Comedian, on why he is qualified and a better candidate to become President of Nigeria)

“As VP, I assembled what is arguably the best economic team ever in Nigeria. It was made up of young, world-class professionals, who came home to work. Some of those professionals are now political leaders, governors and world leaders in their own right." (Atiku's influence on the economic development of Nigeria as the Head of the National Economic Council revealed here)

 “I remember the only corruption indictment against me was a white paper which was cooked up by our own administration overnight to including the very EFCC that I helped found and other cabinet ministers, which I challenged in court. The court rightly dismissed all those indictments as being mere political, and till today nobody has ever indicted me of corruption.” (This was his defense against the indictment cooked up against him by Obasanjo and EFCC which is yet to be proved by EFCC till date in any Court of law)

“For example, between 1999 and 2003, oil prices then were hovering between $16 and $28 yet we managed to pay up salary arrears from decades back, clear up our national debts and build up foreign reserves. Our Gross Domestic Product grew at the fastest rate we’ve seen since the return to democracy.” (Despite decades of military  rule, the Obasanjo/Atiku era brought Nigeria out of the woods based on "working economic policies" Atiku helped set up)

 “I regret that I had that disagreement with my boss. Some say I was disloyal, but I looked at the events in Zimbabwe recently, and it gives me confidence that I did the right thing fighting the attempts to elongate the presidential tenure beyond eight years. If I did not win that fight, do you think we would be having a discussion on young people getting into leadership today?” (His stand on why he had to fight the illegal Third Term ambition of his former boss, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, which would have set a bad precedence for future administrations)

“I went to the World Bank and met a bright lady, convinced her to come back home, and she became a star in our government. To show you we had effective leadership, the same lady could not replicate her exploits under a different government,”  (On his discovery of the one and only Madam Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former, Minister of Finance)

 “In my home state of Adamawa, for example, I’ve created over 50,000 direct jobs and 250,000 indirect ones. We are the largest private employers of labour in the state, only second to the state government. It’s not a lot, but it does help reduce unemployment. Who do you think are holding those jobs? Yes, young people.” (This is Alhaji Atiku's direct and indirect impacts on employments as an individual)

"What is happening in Nigeria is that as a nation, we are caught up in a modern-day Malthusian Trap. For years, our population has been growing faster than our Gross Domestic Product, bringing us to a point where we have an ever-increasing population competing for resources that are not keeping pace with population growth." (Alhaji Atiku's submission on the state of the Nation under Buhari while making his keynote address at the  Silverbird Man of the year 2017 Awards Night)

"It may sound simplistic, but if Nigeria can assemble a leadership focused on getting us out of this Malthusian Trap by gradually reversing the trend where population growth exceeds GDP growth, many of these challenges we are currently facing will slowly but surely fade away." (Atiku's blueprint for the way out of our current surging populations versus our depleting Gross Domestic Products as a Country)

"This month of February 2018, according to the World Poverty Clock, Nigeria has just overtaken India as the world’s capital of extreme poverty. There are more extremely poor people in Nigeria than there are in India, a country that has six times Nigeria’s population." (Alhaji Atiku affirming the grim situation Nigerians found themselves in under the Buhari-led administration)

"After contracting for five consecutive quarters, Nigeria came out of recession in the second quarter of 2017 with a GDP growth rate of 0.55%. In the third quarter, we fared better with 1.40%. While this looks somewhat like we exited the recession, the reality is that when you factor in our population growth rate of 2.3%, which is one of the highest in the world, have we really exited a recession? Technically, yes, but in reality, it is doubtful." (Atiku's humble but concise statistical analysis of the true picture of our economic status as a Country)

“When people do not have jobs and the means to start a business are beyond their reach, they are incrementally much more likely to engage in criminal behaviours like terrorism, kidnapping, militancy and armed robbery." (Atiku bringing to the open a simple reason why violences have taken over Nigeria landscape)

“According to the African Development Bank, in 2017, 18 African countries grew their Gross Domestic Product above 5%. Nigeria, which was number one in 2014, was not amongst these nations. We must figure out what has happened in the intervening years between 2014 and 2018 and fix what went wrong." (This is the height of gross ineptitude on leadership as His Excellency, Alhaji Atiku, gave an expository revelation on how Nigeria fell from the top just within 3 years of APC's leadership)

“What happened to brilliant initiatives like the YouWIN programme which gave Nigerian youths the training and funding to start their own businesses?” (The One Million Dollar Question His Excellency, Alhaji Atiku is asking this rudderless APC's government)

“Let me say this: The Restructuring that I, Atiku Abubakar, envisions, will see no state receive less money from the federation account than it currently does. I hope that will ease the anxieties of some who oppose restructuring. Restructuring will not cheat you. It will free you." (Alhaji Atiku's stance on restructuring)

“When I was in government, we reduced recurrent expenditure by introducing the monetisation policy and by privatising many government enterprises, especially those that were consuming resources without generating revenue. Those policies have been bastardized today and we have seen a ballooning of our recurrent expenditure and shrinkage of our capital expenditure. We must return to the basics.” (Atiku showing the wrong approach of this APC's government in the area of fiscal policies)

“We have to enact laws to prevent leaders from diverting public funds from the public health sector to the treatment of the elite in the best hospitals abroad. If you can afford it from your own private resources, then pay for it. But do not make the tax payer pay for it." (This is Alhaji Atiku demanding that laws should be made to ensure that our leaders are made to pay for their health related issues anytime they seek medical attention abroad and not from public funds)

“We are in critical times, and as I conclude, I want to urge a paradigm shift in Nigeria. Our elite are treated in Europe. Big Brother Naija is being broadcast from South Africa and Nike is unveiling our FIFA World Cup Jersey in London. Is this the extent to which we have outsourced Nigeria? As far as I am concerned, if it concerns Nigeria, it must be done in Nigeria, not abroad. Not abroad.” (Atiku promoting "Made in Nigeria for Nigerians" ideology)

All What Atiku Is Saying Is, "Judge Me On My Track Records In Political And Business Careers And Not On Innuendoes"

oyatz:
Bros, I don't have anything against Atiku and I personally feel he will be a better president than Buhari but will be very difficult to market Atiku for president in 2019 for complex reasons.

Who are the Atiku foot soldiers in Kano, Lagos,Rivers, Kaduna or Delta States?

oyatz:
Bros, I don't have anything against Atiku and I personally feel he will be a better president than Buhari but will be very difficult to market Atiku for president in 2019 for complex reasons.

Who are the Atiku foot soldiers in Kano, Lagos,Rivers, Kaduna or Delta States?

oyatz:
The ethnic sentiment card being played by largely the youth factions of the movement against Buhari will deprive the movement of the necessary Pan-Nigerian support required to chase Buhari from Aso-Rock and it's inadvertently introducing a 'We Vs them' factor into the political equation which will make it very easy for Buhari to appeal to same ethno religious sentiments of millions of voters in his own side of the country.