ELECTION IS A GAME OF NUMBERS: POLITICAL LESSON SOUTHWEST MUST LEARN!

In this piece, I am going to analytically examine the political influence of Southwest in the  2011 and 2015 Presidential Elections in Nigeria and their impacts.

2011 number of Registered Voters for election = 73,528,040

2011 number of Registered Voters who voted = 39,469,484

2011 number of valid votes counted = 38,209,978

2011 number of invalid votes not counted = 1,259,506

2011 number of Registered Voters who did not vote = 34,058,556

2011 votes scored by Presidential candidates:
Dr. Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) = 22,495,187
Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (CPC) = 12,214,853

PDP won the election with a margin of 10,280,334 votes.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

2015 number of Registered Voters for election = 68,833,476

2015 number of Registered Voters who voted = 29,432,083

2015 number of valid votes counted = 28,587,564

2015 number of invalid votes not counted = 844,519

2015 number of Registered Voters who did not vote = 39,401,393

2015 votes scored by Presidential candidates:
Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (APC) = 15,424,921
Dr. Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) = 12,853,162

APC won the election with a margin of 2,572,759 votes. Too close to call.

Going by the 2015 elections, let's assume we remove this winning margin (2,572,759) from the 39 million + that never voted, you have over 36 million that can cause damage to any political party if only these undecided or nonchalant voters are well courted and encouraged on the importance for them to vote.  Catching 70% of these lots is ok for a winning party with a plan.

We have almost 40 million Nigerians that did not vote in 2015 and the questions are; Who are they? Where are they and which party and candidates will they vote for in 2019? Are they willing to be convinced now to vote in 2019 or still back off like they did in 2015? Which of the candidates will likely catch their fancies? Time will tell very soon but not without the cooperation and sincerity of operations on the part of INEC that appears compromised through the illegal registration of underage voters up North.

My prediction is that any party that penetrates social media, presents a vibrant and formidable well known candidate that understands how modern politics affects the masses and aids employments drive and can articulate this very well in form of his manifestoes before the public and do lots of grass-root works will definitely win 2019 Presidential Elections!

The Alleged SouthWest Influence In Presidential Elections: Busting The Myth!

The PDP National Convention has come and gone, though many are comfortable with the outcome, but few are not, believing that they were sidelined. These few are the Southwest political gladiators in the convention ground who felt they were shortchanged and promised to fight the party's newly elected leadership structure to a halt. They believe it will be a political disaster for the PDP to ignore them in the scheme of things especially as 2019 election approaches.  Well, the facts are stated below on what Southwest importance is to a Presidential elections using 2011 and 2015 examples, we can only hope that the Southwest will prove us wrong in 2019.

2011 Presidential Elections

In 2011 elections, the National election turnout was 52.3%, while turn out in the North was 52.8%, turn out in South East (66.9) and South South (67.0%) while South West was 32.8% and they repeated this low turn out in 2015 again.

It must be noted that other regions either fell within the national average or exceeded it, South West was the only region that went below it by 37%, while South East and South South both exceeded it by 27.0%.

At the end of the election, out of the 16,290,593 votes cast in the South, the South West contributed 28.3% by casting only 4,613,712 votes, leaving South East and South South to provide the remaining 71.7%, casting 11,676,881 from both regions.

Out of this 16,290,593 votes cast in the South, 13,890,271 votes were cast for PDP. South West (with 6 States) even though it has the highest population in the South contributed only 20% of those votes by casting 2,786,417 votes, leaving South East (with 5 States) with the lowest population and South South (with 6 States) with the median population to contribute the other 80%, at 36% and 44% respectively and casting 4,985,246 and 6,118,608 votes respectively. In this case, South West contributed only 12.3% of the entire 22,495,187 votes PDP got at the election, South East and South South contributed 49.4%, leaving the entire North (3 regions) and FCT to provide the other 38.3%

It is important to point out that while South East gave 98.3% of their votes to PDP, South South gave 96.3%, while South West 60.4%, making them the only region that doesn't give bloc votes, while South East and South south remain PDP's strongest holds.

2015 Presidential Elections

In 2015, South West gave 1,851,416 votes to PDP while 2,433,193 votes went to APC, making APC win South West by a meager votes of 581,777 advantage. Anambra in the South East rendered useless this plus of 581,777 votes in Southwest by giving PDP 660,762, returning advantage to PDP by 78,985 votes.

It is important to point out that since majority of the 1,851,416 votes to PDP were gotten from Igbo dominated areas, should South West vote the way they did in 2015, Anambra will always be on ground to restore advantage. South West gave 43.2% of their votes to PDP, South East gave 93.0% of their votes to PDP while South South gave 91.8%. This again confirms South East and South south as PDP's strongest holds and South West as the only region that doesn't give bloc votes in the South. Again, South West contributed 14.4% of the total PDP's votes of 12,853,162 and 15.8% of APC's votes, South South and South East contributed 55.9% of PDP's votes and 4.0% of APC's votes leaving the entire North and FCT to contibute the other 29.7% of PDP's votes and 80.2% of APC's votes.

This is captured here under these four determining factors;

1. In 2011, assuming South West gave 100% of their votes to Buhari's CPC who came second and gave nothing to PDP and other parties, Jonathan's PDP would have still won the election by 5,771,459 votes.
This is captured here; South West voted 2,786,417 for PDP; 1,369,943 for ACN; 321,609 to CPC and 30,906 for ANPP. (totalling 4,508,875 votes which if subtracted from the winning margin of PDP's 10,280,334 will still give PDP a huge 5,771,459 margin)

2. In 2015, assuming South West as a region decided not to vote at all, Buhari would have still won by 1,989,982 votes. 

3. In 2015, assuming South West APC decided not to vote, allowing only South West PDP to vote for Jonathan, Buhari would have still won by 138,566 votes.

4. Maybe as a result of faulty card readers recorded in the South East and South South during the election, which even caused His Excellency, the former President, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, to try 7 times before being captured. The turn out in SE fell from 66.9% in 2011 to 37% in 2015 and turn out in the South South fell from 67% in 2011 to 56% in 2015, while South West got the same turn out as in 2011. In the North, turn out in 2015 was 54.4% in Kebbi, 60% in Zamfara, while Boko Haram infested Borno, Adamawa and Yobe had an average turn out of 41.7%. 

Assuming South East and South South alone voted in 2015 the way they did in 2011, with the other 4 regions and FCT voting like they did in 2015, Jonathan would have gotten 16,777,385 votes, beating Buhari with 1,352,464 votes.

In summary, experience from 1999 has taught us that South West PDP supporters are mainly Igbos and Niger Deltans, while South West APC (which metamorphosed from ACN) are mainly Yorubas. Statistics from 2011 Presidential election equally confirms this. In that year, South West as a region alone, fielding a Northerner, Mallam Ribadu running on a Yoruba regional party ACN, gave the party 65.9% of its total votes, while contributing 89% of the Party's votes from the South; and South East and South South provided the other 11%. This same statistics reflected in the 2007 Presidential Elections when His Excellency, the former Vice President, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku, ran on the ACN (then AC) platform.

As it stands today, the South West appears incapacitated to offer bloc votes. Hence, no matter who South West APC vote for, they clearly lack the bloc votes (despite having the capacity) that can influence the outcome of any Presidential election. Their votes are just formalities at least judging from the simple analysis above and this ought not to be so in this modern age of electoral reforms and awareness! This is to bury the myth that Southwest are power changers in the political terrain of Nigeria except they choose to walk the talk in 2019 by turning out to vote in their large numbers as experienced in other geopolitical zones within the Southern region. It is crystal clear that votes from Southwest are mainly buoyed by votes from Northwest and Northeast since 2011 till date with the clear exception of 1999 when most Southwesterners voted enmasse for Chief Olu Falae, candidate of the AD/APP merged party as against a fellow Southerner, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP.

To buttress on this, I will use the 2011 Presidential elections as my example. In the South, the Southwest recorded the lowest number of eventual voters from those that were registered by INEC. In the Southwest, 14,296,163 registered as voters only 4,613,712 (32%) turned out to vote leaving out a huge 9,682,451 (68%) registered voters that failed to vote. Southeast had 7,577,212 as registered voters and ended up producing 5,072,321 (67%) eventual voters leaving a mere 2,504,891 (33%) electorates who failed to turn up for the voting exercise. The South-south zone had 9,474,427 registered voters and 6,351,116 (67%) turned up to vote while 3,123,311 (33%) failed to show up. Judging from the above, it is no brainer to conclude that Southwest appears to be the weakest link in the region despite being in a better position to deliver bloc votes but keeps denying itself of such potentials because of negligence and laziness of the electorates due to poor education on the importance of voting. I think if Southwest must be taken seriously as a force to reckon with,  it needs to work on its lapses which  had become somewhat perennial. 

I conclude by saying, if election must counts in this coming 2019 then we all have a lot to do for the sake of our future as citizens of this great country and as stakeholders. Many people turned up in the electoral exercise of 2011 than what was experienced in 2015 which is not a good trend. 2019 beckons, and we have many roles to play by turning out in our large numbers more than what we gave in 2011 and make sure our votes count. 

I Urge You All To Do The RSVP – Register, Select, Vote and Protect.
Register – Register With INEC, Pick Your Permanent Voters Card-PVC;
Select - Select Your Party of Choice and Candidate; 
Vote – Vote not Fight and;
Protect – Protect Your Vote.

Author: Tomakint

tomakint:
ELECTION IS A GAME OF NUMBERS: POLITICAL LESSON SOUTHWEST MUST LEARN!

In this piece, I am going to analytically examine the political influence of Southwest in the  2011 and 2015 Presidential Elections in Nigeria and their impacts.

2011 number of Registered Voters for election = 73,528,040

2011 number of Registered Voters who voted = 39,469,484

2011 number of valid votes counted = 38,209,978

2011 number of invalid votes not counted = 1,259,506

2011 number of Registered Voters who did not vote = 34,058,556

2011 votes scored by Presidential candidates:
Dr. Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) = 22,495,187
Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (CPC) = 12,214,853

PDP won the election with a margin of 10,280,334 votes.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

2015 number of Registered Voters for election = 68,833,476

2015 number of Registered Voters who voted = 29,432,083

2015 number of valid votes counted = 28,587,564

2015 number of invalid votes not counted = 844,519

2015 number of Registered Voters who did not vote = 39,401,393

2015 votes scored by Presidential candidates:
Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (APC) = 15,424,921
Dr. Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) = 12,853,162

APC won the election with a margin of 2,572,759 votes. Too close to call.

Going by the 2015 elections, let's assume we remove this winning margin (2,572,759) from the 39 million + that never voted, you have over 36 million that can cause damage to any political party if only these undecided or nonchalant voters are well courted and encouraged on the importance for them to vote.  Catching 70% of these lots is ok for a winning party with a plan.

We have almost 40 million Nigerians that did not vote in 2015 and the questions are; Who are they? Where are they and which party and candidates will they vote for in 2019? Are they willing to be convinced now to vote in 2019 or still back off like they did in 2015? Which of the candidates will likely catch their fancies? Time will tell very soon but not without the cooperation and sincerity of operations on the part of INEC that appears compromised through the illegal registration of underage voters up North.

My prediction is that any party that penetrates social media, presents a vibrant and formidable well known candidate that understands how modern politics affects the masses and aids employments drive and can articulate this very well in form of his manifestoes before the public and do lots of grass-root works will definitely win 2019 Presidential Elections!

The Alleged SouthWest Influence In Presidential Elections: Busting The Myth!

The PDP National Convention has come and gone, though many are comfortable with the outcome, but few are not, believing that they were sidelined. These few are the Southwest political gladiators in the convention ground who felt they were shortchanged and promised to fight the party's newly elected leadership structure to a halt. They believe it will be a political disaster for the PDP to ignore them in the scheme of things especially as 2019 election approaches.  Well, the facts are stated below on what Southwest importance is to a Presidential elections using 2011 and 2015 examples, we can only hope that the Southwest will prove us wrong in 2019.

2011 Presidential Elections

In 2011 elections, the National election turnout was 52.3%, while turn out in the North was 52.8%, turn out in South East (66.9) and South South (67.0%) while South West was 32.8% and they repeated this low turn out in 2015 again.

It must be noted that other regions either fell within the national average or exceeded it, South West was the only region that went below it by 37%, while South East and South South both exceeded it by 27.0%.

At the end of the election, out of the 16,290,593 votes cast in the South, the South West contributed 28.3% by casting only 4,613,712 votes, leaving South East and South South to provide the remaining 71.7%, casting 11,676,881 from both regions.

Out of this 16,290,593 votes cast in the South, 13,890,271 votes were cast for PDP. South West (with 6 States) even though it has the highest population in the South contributed only 20% of those votes by casting 2,786,417 votes, leaving South East (with 5 States) with the lowest population and South South (with 6 States) with the median population to contribute the other 80%, at 36% and 44% respectively and casting 4,985,246 and 6,118,608 votes respectively. In this case, South West contributed only 12.3% of the entire 22,495,187 votes PDP got at the election, South East and South South contributed 49.4%, leaving the entire North (3 regions) and FCT to provide the other 38.3%

It is important to point out that while South East gave 98.3% of their votes to PDP, South South gave 96.3%, while South West 60.4%, making them the only region that doesn't give bloc votes, while South East and South south remain PDP's strongest holds.

2015 Presidential Elections

In 2015, South West gave 1,851,416 votes to PDP while 2,433,193 votes went to APC, making APC win South West by a meager votes of 581,777 advantage. Anambra in the South East rendered useless this plus of 581,777 votes in Southwest by giving PDP 660,762, returning advantage to PDP by 78,985 votes.

It is important to point out that since majority of the 1,851,416 votes to PDP were gotten from Igbo dominated areas, should South West vote the way they did in 2015, Anambra will always be on ground to restore advantage. South West gave 43.2% of their votes to PDP, South East gave 93.0% of their votes to PDP while South South gave 91.8%. This again confirms South East and South south as PDP's strongest holds and South West as the only region that doesn't give bloc votes in the South. Again, South West contributed 14.4% of the total PDP's votes of 12,853,162 and 15.8% of APC's votes, South South and South East contributed 55.9% of PDP's votes and 4.0% of APC's votes leaving the entire North and FCT to contibute the other 29.7% of PDP's votes and 80.2% of APC's votes.

This is captured here under these four determining factors;

1. In 2011, assuming South West gave 100% of their votes to Buhari's CPC who came second and gave nothing to PDP and other parties, Jonathan's PDP would have still won the election by 5,771,459 votes.
This is captured here; South West voted 2,786,417 for PDP; 1,369,943 for ACN; 321,609 to CPC and 30,906 for ANPP. (totalling 4,508,875 votes which if subtracted from the winning margin of PDP's 10,280,334 will still give PDP a huge 5,771,459 margin)

2. In 2015, assuming South West as a region decided not to vote at all, Buhari would have still won by 1,989,982 votes. 

3. In 2015, assuming South West APC decided not to vote, allowing only South West PDP to vote for Jonathan, Buhari would have still won by 138,566 votes.

4. Maybe as a result of faulty card readers recorded in the South East and South South during the election, which even caused His Excellency, the former President, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, to try 7 times before being captured. The turn out in SE fell from 66.9% in 2011 to 37% in 2015 and turn out in the South South fell from 67% in 2011 to 56% in 2015, while South West got the same turn out as in 2011. In the North, turn out in 2015 was 54.4% in Kebbi, 60% in Zamfara, while Boko Haram infested Borno, Adamawa and Yobe had an average turn out of 41.7%. 

Assuming South East and South South alone voted in 2015 the way they did in 2011, with the other 4 regions and FCT voting like they did in 2015, Jonathan would have gotten 16,777,385 votes, beating Buhari with 1,352,464 votes.

In summary, experience from 1999 has taught us that South West PDP supporters are mainly Igbos and Niger Deltans, while South West APC (which metamorphosed from ACN) are mainly Yorubas. Statistics from 2011 Presidential election equally confirms this. In that year, South West as a region alone, fielding a Northerner, Mallam Ribadu running on a Yoruba regional party ACN, gave the party 65.9% of its total votes, while contributing 89% of the Party's votes from the South; and South East and South South provided the other 11%. This same statistics reflected in the 2007 Presidential Elections when His Excellency, the former Vice President, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku, ran on the ACN (then AC) platform.

As it stands today, the South West appears incapacitated to offer bloc votes. Hence, no matter who South West APC vote for, they clearly lack the bloc votes (despite having the capacity) that can influence the outcome of any Presidential election. Their votes are just formalities at least judging from the simple analysis above and this ought not to be so in this modern age of electoral reforms and awareness! This is to bury the myth that Southwest are power changers in the political terrain of Nigeria except they choose to walk the talk in 2019 by turning out to vote in their large numbers as experienced in other geopolitical zones within the Southern region. It is crystal clear that votes from Southwest are mainly buoyed by votes from Northwest and Northeast since 2011 till date with the clear exception of 1999 when most Southwesterners voted enmasse for Chief Olu Falae, candidate of the AD/APP merged party as against a fellow Southerner, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP.

To buttress on this, I will use the 2011 Presidential elections as my example. In the South, the Southwest recorded the lowest number of eventual voters from those that were registered by INEC. In the Southwest, 14,296,163 registered as voters only 4,613,712 (32%) turned out to vote leaving out a huge 9,682,451 (68%) registered voters that failed to vote. Southeast had 7,577,212 as registered voters and ended up producing 5,072,321 (67%) eventual voters leaving a mere 2,504,891 (33%) electorates who failed to turn up for the voting exercise. The South-south zone had 9,474,427 registered voters and 6,351,116 (67%) turned up to vote while 3,123,311 (33%) failed to show up. Judging from the above, it is no brainer to conclude that Southwest appears to be the weakest link in the region despite being in a better position to deliver bloc votes but keeps denying itself of such potentials because of negligence and laziness of the electorates due to poor education on the importance of voting. I think if Southwest must be taken seriously as a force to reckon with,  it needs to work on its lapses which  had become somewhat perennial. 

I conclude by saying, if election must counts in this coming 2019 then we all have a lot to do for the sake of our future as citizens of this great country and as stakeholders. Many people turned up in the electoral exercise of 2011 than what was experienced in 2015 which is not a good trend. 2019 beckons, and we have many roles to play by turning out in our large numbers more than what we gave in 2011 and make sure our votes count. 

I Urge You All To Do The RSVP – Register, Select, Vote and Protect.
Register – Register With INEC, Pick Your Permanent Voters Card-PVC;
Select - Select Your Party of Choice and Candidate; 
Vote – Vote not Fight and;
Protect – Protect Your Vote.

Author: Tomakint

Good analysis. Factual, I must say but you didn't factor in who was the contestant. The South East and South South voted enmass in 2011 and 2015 because of the Goodluck (our son) factor. This may not be so in 2019. Besides, remember that many of the top members of the cabinet were from that part of the country. So, there was high level mobilization and political involvement. You can only have a fairer analysis if you compare the voting pattern of the South from 1999 to date.

Besides, I consider this fallacy of hasty generalisation:

In summary, experience from 1999 has taught us that South West PDP supporters are mainly Igbos and Niger Deltans, while South West APC (which metamorphosed from ACN) are mainly Yorubas. Statistics from 2011 Presidential election equally confirms this. In that year, South West as a region alone, fielding a Northerner, Mallam Ribadu running on a Yoruba regional party ACN, gave the party 65.9% of its total votes, while contributing 89% of the Party's votes from the South; and South East and South South provided the other 11%. This same statistics reflected in the 2007 Presidential Elections when His Excellency, the former Vice President, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku, ran on the ACN (then AC) platform.

You forgot that PDP captured the whole of South West in 2003 with the exception of Lagos. Are PDP supporters in that election only Igbos? Rather than party, whether the president is 'our son or not' play more important role among the people of the South while religion play even more critical role in election in the North. That is the reality in Nigeria.
Meanwhile, winning election in Nigeria cannot be attributed to a single factor. Just like anywhere in the world, several factors are involved.

Shut up

Emergency political analyst

What the population of each region

You need to bring that to to the burner

Also numbers of eligible voters in each region

We know your type

If it is not PDP and enemies of the state you won't support anything good

tomakint:
ELECTION IS A GAME OF NUMBERS: POLITICAL LESSON SOUTHWEST MUST LEARN!

In this piece, I am going to analytically examine the political influence of Southwest in the  2011 and 2015 Presidential Elections in Nigeria and their impacts.

2011 number of Registered Voters for election = 73,528,040

2011 number of Registered Voters who voted = 39,469,484

2011 number of valid votes counted = 38,209,978

2011 number of invalid votes not counted = 1,259,506

2011 number of Registered Voters who did not vote = 34,058,556

2011 votes scored by Presidential candidates:
Dr. Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) = 22,495,187
Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (CPC) = 12,214,853

PDP won the election with a margin of 10,280,334 votes.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

2015 number of Registered Voters for election = 68,833,476

2015 number of Registered Voters who voted = 29,432,083

2015 number of valid votes counted = 28,587,564

2015 number of invalid votes not counted = 844,519

2015 number of Registered Voters who did not vote = 39,401,393

2015 votes scored by Presidential candidates:
Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (APC) = 15,424,921
Dr. Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) = 12,853,162

APC won the election with a margin of 2,572,759 votes. Too close to call.

Going by the 2015 elections, let's assume we remove this winning margin (2,572,759) from the 39 million + that never voted, you have over 36 million that can cause damage to any political party if only these undecided or nonchalant voters are well courted and encouraged on the importance for them to vote.  Catching 70% of these lots is ok for a winning party with a plan.

We have almost 40 million Nigerians that did not vote in 2015 and the questions are; Who are they? Where are they and which party and candidates will they vote for in 2019? Are they willing to be convinced now to vote in 2019 or still back off like they did in 2015? Which of the candidates will likely catch their fancies? Time will tell very soon but not without the cooperation and sincerity of operations on the part of INEC that appears compromised through the illegal registration of underage voters up North.

My prediction is that any party that penetrates social media, presents a vibrant and formidable well known candidate that understands how modern politics affects the masses and aids employments drive and can articulate this very well in form of his manifestoes before the public and do lots of grass-root works will definitely win 2019 Presidential Elections!

The Alleged SouthWest Influence In Presidential Elections: Busting The Myth!

The PDP National Convention has come and gone, though many are comfortable with the outcome, but few are not, believing that they were sidelined. These few are the Southwest political gladiators in the convention ground who felt they were shortchanged and promised to fight the party's newly elected leadership structure to a halt. They believe it will be a political disaster for the PDP to ignore them in the scheme of things especially as 2019 election approaches.  Well, the facts are stated below on what Southwest importance is to a Presidential elections using 2011 and 2015 examples, we can only hope that the Southwest will prove us wrong in 2019.

2011 Presidential Elections

In 2011 elections, the National election turnout was 52.3%, while turn out in the North was 52.8%, turn out in South East (66.9) and South South (67.0%) while South West was 32.8% and they repeated this low turn out in 2015 again.

It must be noted that other regions either fell within the national average or exceeded it, South West was the only region that went below it by 37%, while South East and South South both exceeded it by 27.0%.

At the end of the election, out of the 16,290,593 votes cast in the South, the South West contributed 28.3% by casting only 4,613,712 votes, leaving South East and South South to provide the remaining 71.7%, casting 11,676,881 from both regions.

Out of this 16,290,593 votes cast in the South, 13,890,271 votes were cast for PDP. South West (with 6 States) even though it has the highest population in the South contributed only 20% of those votes by casting 2,786,417 votes, leaving South East (with 5 States) with the lowest population and South South (with 6 States) with the median population to contribute the other 80%, at 36% and 44% respectively and casting 4,985,246 and 6,118,608 votes respectively. In this case, South West contributed only 12.3% of the entire 22,495,187 votes PDP got at the election, South East and South South contributed 49.4%, leaving the entire North (3 regions) and FCT to provide the other 38.3%

It is important to point out that while South East gave 98.3% of their votes to PDP, South South gave 96.3%, while South West 60.4%, making them the only region that doesn't give bloc votes, while South East and South south remain PDP's strongest holds.

2015 Presidential Elections

In 2015, South West gave 1,851,416 votes to PDP while 2,433,193 votes went to APC, making APC win South West by a meager votes of 581,777 advantage. Anambra in the South East rendered useless this plus of 581,777 votes in Southwest by giving PDP 660,762, returning advantage to PDP by 78,985 votes.

It is important to point out that since majority of the 1,851,416 votes to PDP were gotten from Igbo dominated areas, should South West vote the way they did in 2015, Anambra will always be on ground to restore advantage. South West gave 43.2% of their votes to PDP, South East gave 93.0% of their votes to PDP while South South gave 91.8%. This again confirms South East and South south as PDP's strongest holds and South West as the only region that doesn't give bloc votes in the South. Again, South West contributed 14.4% of the total PDP's votes of 12,853,162 and 15.8% of APC's votes, South South and South East contributed 55.9% of PDP's votes and 4.0% of APC's votes leaving the entire North and FCT to contibute the other 29.7% of PDP's votes and 80.2% of APC's votes.

This is captured here under these four determining factors;

1. In 2011, assuming South West gave 100% of their votes to Buhari's CPC who came second and gave nothing to PDP and other parties, Jonathan's PDP would have still won the election by 5,771,459 votes.
This is captured here; South West voted 2,786,417 for PDP; 1,369,943 for ACN; 321,609 to CPC and 30,906 for ANPP. (totalling 4,508,875 votes which if subtracted from the winning margin of PDP's 10,280,334 will still give PDP a huge 5,771,459 margin)

2. In 2015, assuming South West as a region decided not to vote at all, Buhari would have still won by 1,989,982 votes. 

3. In 2015, assuming South West APC decided not to vote, allowing only South West PDP to vote for Jonathan, Buhari would have still won by 138,566 votes.

4. Maybe as a result of faulty card readers recorded in the South East and South South during the election, which even caused His Excellency, the former President, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, to try 7 times before being captured. The turn out in SE fell from 66.9% in 2011 to 37% in 2015 and turn out in the South South fell from 67% in 2011 to 56% in 2015, while South West got the same turn out as in 2011. In the North, turn out in 2015 was 54.4% in Kebbi, 60% in Zamfara, while Boko Haram infested Borno, Adamawa and Yobe had an average turn out of 41.7%. 

Assuming South East and South South alone voted in 2015 the way they did in 2011, with the other 4 regions and FCT voting like they did in 2015, Jonathan would have gotten 16,777,385 votes, beating Buhari with 1,352,464 votes.

In summary, experience from 1999 has taught us that South West PDP supporters are mainly Igbos and Niger Deltans, while South West APC (which metamorphosed from ACN) are mainly Yorubas. Statistics from 2011 Presidential election equally confirms this. In that year, South West as a region alone, fielding a Northerner, Mallam Ribadu running on a Yoruba regional party ACN, gave the party 65.9% of its total votes, while contributing 89% of the Party's votes from the South; and South East and South South provided the other 11%. This same statistics reflected in the 2007 Presidential Elections when His Excellency, the former Vice President, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku, ran on the ACN (then AC) platform.

As it stands today, the South West appears incapacitated to offer bloc votes. Hence, no matter who South West APC vote for, they clearly lack the bloc votes (despite having the capacity) that can influence the outcome of any Presidential election. Their votes are just formalities at least judging from the simple analysis above and this ought not to be so in this modern age of electoral reforms and awareness! This is to bury the myth that Southwest are power changers in the political terrain of Nigeria except they choose to walk the talk in 2019 by turning out to vote in their large numbers as experienced in other geopolitical zones within the Southern region. It is crystal clear that votes from Southwest are mainly buoyed by votes from Northwest and Northeast since 2011 till date with the clear exception of 1999 when most Southwesterners voted enmasse for Chief Olu Falae, candidate of the AD/APP merged party as against a fellow Southerner, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP.

To buttress on this, I will use the 2011 Presidential elections as my example. In the South, the Southwest recorded the lowest number of eventual voters from those that were registered by INEC. In the Southwest, 14,296,163 registered as voters only 4,613,712 (32%) turned out to vote leaving out a huge 9,682,451 (68%) registered voters that failed to vote. Southeast had 7,577,212 as registered voters and ended up producing 5,072,321 (67%) eventual voters leaving a mere 2,504,891 (33%) electorates who failed to turn up for the voting exercise. The South-south zone had 9,474,427 registered voters and 6,351,116 (67%) turned up to vote while 3,123,311 (33%) failed to show up. Judging from the above, it is no brainer to conclude that Southwest appears to be the weakest link in the region despite being in a better position to deliver bloc votes but keeps denying itself of such potentials because of negligence and laziness of the electorates due to poor education on the importance of voting. I think if Southwest must be taken seriously as a force to reckon with,  it needs to work on its lapses which  had become somewhat perennial. 

I conclude by saying, if election must counts in this coming 2019 then we all have a lot to do for the sake of our future as citizens of this great country and as stakeholders. Many people turned up in the electoral exercise of 2011 than what was experienced in 2015 which is not a good trend. 2019 beckons, and we have many roles to play by turning out in our large numbers more than what we gave in 2011 and make sure our votes count. 

I Urge You All To Do The RSVP – Register, Select, Vote and Protect.
Register – Register With INEC, Pick Your Permanent Voters Card-PVC;
Select - Select Your Party of Choice and Candidate; 
Vote – Vote not Fight and;
Protect – Protect Your Vote.

Author: Tomakint

Source of your statistics. Have you ever wondered if the SW interest has never been presented in any of the political parties or candidates till date. Obasanjo was a vagabond of Yorubaland in comparison with Falae.

You might need to start your data analysis from 1993 MKO Abiola elections...look at the percentage of Yoruba people who voted in that free, fair and credible polls.

Now look at the factors that affect the morale of the SW voters... some in Lagos State prefer street football games than bother with the electoral process participation

We shall see by next year

2019 figures will confuse you. That's why we are shouting to control Fulani Herdsmen migration.

Great analysis. Front page worthy.
Imhotep.

Oga truth is bitter...

Now they will give you maximum shishi for telling and analysing this plain truth..

Ipob yoot..na so wen dey call you..

Ignorance is bliss ..

Buhari must be returned to Daura..
Let em do dia worst

Na wah. All this epistle just because una votes (upon all una massive rigging that occurred in the SE for PDP) was inadequate to return GEJ in 2015. Gosh, when will you people finally move on? Even Jonathan's people have moved on tey tey. Smh.

ODVanguard:
Na wah. All this epistle just because una votes (upon all una rigging) was inadequate to return GEJ in 2015. Gosh, when will you people finally move on? Even Jonathan's people have moved on tey tey. Smh.

I thought you guys wanted to register a political party? Smh smh smh

Hofbrauhaus:


I thought you guys wanted to register a political party? Smh smh smh

Wtf are you talking about dude?? You people are just a pained bunch of whinny lil' bittches coz your votes are taken for granted while the SW (and MB) are reputed as election deciders due to their unpredictable and 'swing' voter tendencies. That right there is the real cause/source of this bitterness and bile. Nobody gives a flipping fvck about SE votes coz we already know who y'all will be voting for 2-yrs ahead of elections and your votes would have already been checkmated by those from the NW and NE. Keep whining jare.

this is a wonderful analysis, but the most important thing to do as a rational being is to get ur PVC and vote out the dullard. irrespective of region or religion.

LOL. I'm waiting for your 'analysis' on SE election pattern too.

This one now gave analysis in his own foolishness. He doesn't even consider reasons for the low turn out. He then claimed the PDP votes in south west in given by igbos. Later the same fool would tell you igbos don't reside in sw except Lagos.

Dumb mofo.

ODVanguard:


Wtf are you talking about dude?? You people are just a pained bunch of whinny lil' bittches coz your votes are taken for granted while the SW (and MB) are reputed as election deciders due to their unpredictable and 'swing' voter tendencies. That right there is the real cause of this bitterness and bile. Nobody gives a flipping fvck about SE votes coz we already known who y'all will be voting for 2-yrs ahead of elections and your votes would have already been checkmated by those from the NW and NE. Keep whining jare.

I only pity you poor people..

sarrki:
Shut up

Emergency political analyst

What the population of each region

You need to bring that to to the burner

Also numbers of eligible voters in each region

We know your type

If it is not PDP and enemies of the state you won't support anything good

Calm down dude !!!
It's not fight, you have anger and comprehension issues ...

That's why you are a confirmed
Check below

Firstpage:
LOL. I'm waiting for your 'analysis' on SE election pattern too.

This one now gave analysis in his own foolishness. He doesn't even consider reasons for the low turn out. He then claimed the PDP votes in south west in given by igbos. Later the same fool would tell you igbos don't reside in sw except Lagos.

Dumb mofo.

Na so. Classic Akpu Logic on display. They like feeling important with themselves. Real delusion of grandeur.

South West will vote massively for APC come next year. PDP is a gonner in the SW except in Ekiti state.

In short, PDP does not need south west votes to return to power. Great analysis. South west will stick with APC as implied in your post. Good job tomakint and good luck to PDP. Don't come back and cry of betrayal after 2019 presidential election.

ODVanguard:


Na so. Classic Akpu Logic on display. They like feeling important with themselves. Real delusion of grandeur.

This matter pain this one die....hahahahahah

The pain enter bone..

Delusional grandeur... So appropriate for Southwest..
Hate truth and love dreaming..

Argue with the op..

Na flattie you dey shout upandan

Broom soup eating oily humans...

Truth hurt em more than anything.. tell average ewedu broom eating human truth .. you turn instant enemy.

Afons make una counter the op...
Abi una no dey sophisticated again?

seunmsg:
In short, PDP does not need south west votes to return to power. Great analysis. South west will stick with APC as implied in your post. Good job tomakint and good luck to PDP. Don't come back and cry of betrayal after 2019 presidential election.

Just like wna cry for last PDP convention...

Southwest myths on block votes and dia lie and propagandists on being kingmakers have been bursted too

Nigeria politicians ain't taking em serious..fact#
Even wike called their bluff..no time.

Plus minus dia votes will always always be divided.

ODVanguard:


Wtf are you talking about dude?? You people are just a pained bunch of whinny lil' bittches coz your votes are taken for granted while the SW (and MB) are reputed as election deciders due to their unpredictable and 'swing' voter tendencies. That right there is the real cause/source of this bitterness and bile. Nobody gives a flipping fvck about SE votes coz we already know who y'all will be voting for 2-yrs ahead of elections and your votes would have already been checkmated by those from the NW and NE. Keep whining jare.

Delusional grandeur.

Oga com up with facts and figures not dancing around words and playhating on your superiors.. that you all love to hate.?

Give us your figures..and stop whining like a ..
You're expected to be sophisticated

seunmsg:
In short, PDP does not need south west votes to return to power. Great analysis. South west will stick with APC as implied in your post. Good job tomakint and good luck to PDP. Don't come back and cry of betrayal after 2019 presidential election.

Lol

Herdsmen:


This matter pain this one die....hahahahahah

The pain enter bone..

Delusional grandeur... So appropriate for Southwest..
Hate truth and love dreaming..

Argue with the op..

Na flattie you dey shout upandan

Broom soup eating oily humans...

Truth hurt em more than anything.. tell average ewedu broom eating human truth .. you turn instant enemy.

Afons make una counter the op...
Abi una no dey sophisticated again?

Morafocka will you quit spamming my mention?? The only valid fact here is that Buhari is your president today with the support of the SW, while the GEJ your region tried to rig in is back in Otuoke. No need for any long epistle and no amount of spin can change that. See how useless your SE vote is after all? Now stay the fvck off my mention.

I pity 5% people from potopoto republic.

It's the voting pattern you should look at.

As of today, we can boldy state that if an electron took place today, the North would go APC, the South East and South South would go PDP as for the South West, they are fluid so it can go either way.

You also have to remember the election law that says you have to get a certain percentage of the votes in 25 States.
APC cannot get that percentage in the South East and South South, so they need to make it up in the South West. The same thing goes for the PDP, there are States that are a write off percentage wise so you need the swing votes (SW) to fulfill the electoral laws.

So only people from some certain region are allowed to vote whoever they want but others can't...well done

sarrki:
Shut up

Emergency political analyst

What the population of each region

You need to bring that to to the burner

Also numbers of eligible voters in each region

We know your type

If it is not PDP and enemies of the state you won't support anything good

BMC stop shouting and face the facts the Op never manipulated anything he stated it with facts and figures.

This writer must a very naive young man with little understanding of politics (especially Nigerian politics).

In real politics, every zone is important and politicians try to win peoples hearts in ALL the Geo-political zones.

oyatz:
This writer must a very naive young man with little understanding of politics (especially Nigerian politics).

In real politics, every zone is important and politicians try to win peoples hearts in ALL the Geo-political zones.

I am sure you have basic cognitive skills challenge why can't you read and beg those who understand to break it down for you.

sarrki:
Shut up

Emergency political analyst

What the population of each region

You need to bring that to to the burner

Also numbers of eligible voters in each region

We know your type

If it is not PDP and enemies of the state you won't support anything good

It's about time you concentrate on your rice paddy and kindly tell us how many metric tonnes you are planning to generate this season from the "imaginary rice paddy" counter the op with brilliant analyses and superior argument and not this madness and rashness you are displaying