₦airaland Forum

Sap0:
no matter who emerge the VP.. it will hardly change anything in the SW.. people who will vote pdp will do so here no matter who the VP is...
Yorubas no carry all those tribal stuff for head in elections, otherwise 90% of us in Yoruba land will be voting for one party, if u check our voting pattern, you will quickly see votes are usually well spread.
However you igbos mocking Yorubas,making unnecessary enemies for Atiku already is a problem.
The aim is to send the lifeless one away.

We are not mocking yorubas, it is actually yorubas that are itching and praying for Atiku to ignore the East pick a SWner, so they can mock the East, cause discontent and then still remain unreliable and still split their votes or give their votes to APC. Even if you were Atiku, you wont want to take the gamble of ignoring and insulting your biggest stronghold. No emotions just facts brother.

QuotaSystem:
To put it plainly, apart from Taraba, Benue, Plateau & Nassarawa States, President Muhammadu Buhari is poised to sweep the votes of the remaining 15 northern states, for the following reasons:

1. The "Amana" factor.

A lot of southerners often wonder the basis of the cult-like following PMB commands in the North - the reason is not far fetched.

The Hausa-fulani people in particular, place a huge value on the concept of "Amana" (trust/to hold in trust), a value which Buhari's track record of integrity (whether disputed or not) is clearly aligned with. Despite media propaganda, most of these people who are more politically informed than their average southern counterparts, are aware that not a single charge of corruption has stuck on their revered PMB, amidst corruption allegations among his cronies. Atiku loses massively in this respect because of his track record of corruption (BPE, Haliburton, $16b power scam, unexplained source of wealth etc.) which presents him as an untrustworthy leader to most northerners.

Furthermore, PMB's seemingly north-centric agenda regarding appointments, infrastructure projects (roads, rails, ports) and focus on agriculture assures most northerners that their interests would be well protected under his administration, in contrast to Atiku who is perceived to be likely to make concessions and appeasements to the East whose support he is mostly riding on going by recent trends. Atiku also loses big in this regard.

2. The South Eastern VP Factor

If Atiku gives in to the clamor for his running mate to emerge from the East, then he stands to lose massive votes from the core north for obvious reasons.

Firstly, the deep political antagonism and anti-north stance from Igbos, which has characterized the national space and been amplified since the defeat of Jonathan and rise of IPOB/Nnamdi Kanu and their hate speech, will deeply hurt Atiku's chances because not only will it mean the North would be taking the extreme bigotry, insults and political antagonism from the East right on the chin with no consequences, it would also mean the possibility of an Igbo successor to Atiku - a people known for their contempt for Nigeria's unity and secessionist aspirations.

In addition, a SE VP will also cost Atiku significant SW votes - a sub-region with the second largest number of registered voters (14 million).

3. The Boko Haram Factor

In sharp contrast to the generally held notion among some in the south that Atiku would sweep the NE because it's his home region, the strides recorded by PMB in the fight against Boko Haram heavily neutralizes that effect. I am not talking about social media noise, but the perceptions of people directly affected by Boko Haram activities and are experiencing a gradual return to normalcy since PMB took office.

Yola (Adamawa) for example, Atiku's own home capital, has experienced peace since PMB's onslaught on BH like they never saw since Boko Haram emerged under the past PDP administration - this was formerly a ghost town that used to suffer deadly BH attacks daily with dusk-till-dawn curfews, which has since been lifted and attacks reduced to suicide bombings and guerrilla attacks on soft targets, which are reducing on a monthly basis. This was a state that had several LGA's under Boko Haram's rule during PDP's administration and the people aren't quick to forget the corruption that marred the fight against BH in Dasuki fashion.

Maiduguri is back to it's bustling state with dozens of NGO's providing humanitarian services to help with the ongoing rebuilding efforts, people are now free to watch El-Kanem FC matches in the township stadium, and trans-border economic trade (mostly fish) is gradually being restored. The return of the Chibok and Dapchi girls also adds points to PMB's profile in the sub-region. If by God's grace the FG is able to secure the release of Leah Sharibu then that would be a hat-trick. I personally spoke to a "Kube" (traditional hausa cap) dealer from Borno recently and these were the exact sentiments he expressed as he professed support for Buhari's candidacy.

Final Note

It is very valid to permute that the votes from the 4 excluded northern states (Benue, Plateau, Nassarawa, Taraba) will be shared by both candidates as federal might will play out (both parties will rig anyway). With 19 million registered voters in the North West and 10 million in the North East which are largely homogenic, it is safe to say anyone who loses these key regions has lost the 2019 elections. With another 14 million registered voters in the SW which is APC's stronghold and Atiku's slant towards choosing a SE VP, his campaign team should be very worried.

Note that this is not to say Atiku will not record a sizable number of votes from the Northern States, but the ratio will pale in significance to Buhari's potential landslide victory in the region. - Q.S

I only want to respond to your no 2.
look let me tell you north knows the mind of Igbos.
We are not much after the VP like you Yorubas who wants to take it all,

We only want equity respects federal character.

Yoruba are the major problem of the South that's why it is very hard to achieve a common goal
because they will put up a sentiment.

check out your analysis.

Igbos are more Nigerian than any other tribes
but you choose to use lies to damage them

EasternActivist:
Am talking out of experience. I got this moniker before I served. Northerners are nice people that doesn't want problem only to be farming and working hard to make ends meet. But some confined set of idiots won't let them be always claiming first class northerners most especially the rebellious Fulani cos there are good ones too.

Can't you guys do without using uncouth language? What do you gain by it, other than opprobrium?

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IbrahimDamola:
Facts are stubborn, this is not emotional. The Eastern region have always voted as one, so I'll lump them. If there is discontent anywhere in Aba, it will reverberate in PH which is 20 mins way. If there is discontent in onitsha it will reverberate in Asaba which is 5 minutes away.

The VP have to be from the Eastern bloc so he consolidate on the 2 out of 3 southern region and then share votes in the SW and keep his battle in the north. A SW vp will threaten his support in the better south and yet yorubas will play the spoiler for him as they have not been reliable in voting pattern since 1999. He can't take that gamble.

Guy, attaching yourself to the SS makes you look insecure.

The SS will vote Atiku irrespective of where the VP comes from.

Now what choice does the SE have if they decide not to support Atiku for not getting the VP slot 4 more years of Buhari with Osinbajo as VP

QuotaSystem:
You're right.

Honestly the ignorance and clueless state of some in the south regarding political realities in the north is just mind-blowing

... and that's not going to change anytime soon, unfortunately.

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PassingShot:
SE - Atiku 70% PMB 30%
SS - Atiku 65% PMB 35%
NW - Atiku 30% PMB 70%
NE - Atiku 35% PMB 65%
NC Atiku 55% - PMB - 45%
SW Atiku 40% PMB - 60%

It promises to be tough for both but I see PMB edging it.

Watch out for my analysis on it in due course.

NE would vote for their son,keep dreaming

PassingShot:
I guess you're the only one living in the SW.

Kids everywhere!

Sent u a mail for some discussion, kindly reply as soon as you can. Thanks.

Ziggylady:
...
As for me,anything and i mean anything can happen next year..the possibility of both Atiku and Buhari winning next year is high..I can only hope and wish buhari loses next year cos he is a menace to normal and sane Nigerians..

EOD.

... and only your type gets to self-define who "normal and sane Nigerians.." are? Lol.

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Daplux4:
I only want to respond to your no 2.
look let me tell you north knows the mind of Igbos.
We are not much after the VP like you Yorubas who wants to take it all,

We only want equity respects federal character.

Yoruba are the major problem of the South that's why it is very hard to achieve a common goal
because they will put up a sentiment.

check out your analysis.

Igbos are more Nigerian than any other tribes
but you choose to use lies to damage them

And you think he is a Yoruba? You're telling a Northerner about the north?

ModsareChevres:
Guy, attaching yourself to the SS makes you look insecure.

The SS will vote Atiku irrespective of where the VP comes from.

Now what choice does the SE have if they decide not to support Atiku for not getting the VP slot 4 more years of Buhari with Osinbajo as VP

The truth hurts but yoruba cannot wish it away. Political history tells us SESS vote as a bloc, your scream of 'attachee by force' have not changed that reality and will not change it in future.

You have your ambitions, the East also have theirs, If APC did not choose SS as a running mate to buhari in 2015 while trying to pacify GEJ's SS region why should PDP choose SW region to pacify SW now?

It doesn't work like that.

The trap the SW wants to set for Atiku by asking for the SW VP is clear even to the blind. SW will gain a lot if they ditch the Buhari/Osibanjo ticket and vote for Equity, fairness of Atiku/Obi ticket. So that in future posterity will remember you for kicking out a tyrant without proper certificate who came to destroy national cohesion and promote disunity with divisive comments.

IbrahimDamola:
We are not mocking yorubas, it is actually yorubas that are itching and praying for Atiku to ignore the East pick a SWner, so they can mock the East, cause discontent and then still remain unreliable and still split their votes or give their votes to APC. Even if you were Atiku, you wont want to take the gamble of ignoring and insulting your biggest stronghold. No emotions just facts brother.

Lol. You got it. They only want a reason to mock, then they will backstab atiku after neutralizing his stronghold

FriendNG:
And you think he is a Yoruba? You're telling a Northerner about the north?

If you like use 10 user name I don't care.

Daplux4:
I only want to respond to your no 2.
look let me tell you north knows the mind of Igbos.
We are not much after the VP like you Yorubas who wants to take it all,

We only want equity respects federal character.

Yoruba are the major problem of the South that's why it is very hard to achieve a common goal
because they will put up a sentiment.

check out your analysis.

Igbos are more Nigerian than any other tribes
but you choose to use lies to damage them

Yes, Igbos are more Biafrans than Nigeriana.

Daplux4:
If you like use 10 user name I don't care.

Look at this one. Mtsw

basilo101:
Igbos know the north more than most Northerners

Actually, there are over 385 million lgbos spread across the north.

PassingShot:
Remember that the "writing of result" of the past won't happen anymore. Electronic voting is now "a must" in our election.

Plus the federal might which PDP had then is gone and firmly with APC now. It's the reason APC came 2nd in Anambra gubernatorial election behind APGA with PDP in distant 3rd.

We wait and see.

Atiku will win the SE with landslide, but Bihari will win Kwara(65-70 percent) and 55 percent Kogi.

Sirjamo:
Whoever think that SW would vote for Atiku, and abandon its 2023 ambition after labouring so hard to bring Buhari to power is obviously sick.

That is it. Most Yoruba people(including Kwara and Kogi) will align with Buhari.

Awol1:
You are telling me Atiku will loose in Adamawa as well?

Are You OK?

i have be saying it for long that thief atiku can not win his local government.

CilicMarin:
You are just dishing out figures. Atiku Can Never get 65% and 70% Votes in the South South and South East as posited.

We don't do election here. Federal holds sway. The one with Federal might writes result.

The whole security men will be moving with

Oshiomole in Edo.

Amaechi will be leading the onslaught in Rivers State.

Akpabio in Akwaibom

Ogboru in Delta

Cross River Governor is not even interested in presidential Election.

Then South East.

Okorocha will return 65% Votes for Buhari in Imo State.

Ebonyi Governor is only interested in his 2nd term. So ogbonnaya onu, Elechi, Ucha and Ogbuorji will have a field day.

Anambra- Ngige and Andy will make sure Buhari get more than 45% of the votes.

Abia and Enugu are inconsequential but Buhari will get more than 35%.

Remember 2 Fulanis are contesting..

Bro, let's be serious. The south east will vote end masse for Atiku if he chooses an Ibos person as his vice. It is possible for Buhari to get 30 percent of SS, but he can never get up to that in the south east.

Binikingdowm:
you mumu sha the west have APC*700* thousand vote when he was very popular and they felt cheated..

Now they've seen Buhari real colour if Buhari get 200k from them he should be happy

You are deceiving yourself. Buhari will win the south west

Afamed:
For sure, Atiku will win Adamawa state.

Atiku will not win Adamawa state.

IbrahimDamola:
In a nutshell Atiku is more acceptable across the lenght and breadth of the country than the lifeless bigot called Booharri the malu.

Buhari is too sectional, ethnocentrist, bigotted, and clannish. He knows it, and everyone knows it.

Where Buhari is loved (north), Atiku is also loved.

Where Buhari is not accepted (SESS aka better south), Atiku is very much accepted.

Next time when nigerians want a pan-nigeria president instead of a divisive bigot, they won't choose a known extremist and nepotistic tribal bigot killer like buhari the Ayatollah of daura.

Atiku is pan-nigeria, booharri is just pan-boko haram.

So you support a pan nigeranist? I thought you guys wanted Biafra? What changed?

ModsareChevres:
Guy, attaching yourself to the SS makes you look insecure.

The SS will vote Atiku irrespective of where the VP comes from.

Now what choice does the SE have if they decide not to support Atiku for not getting the VP slot 4 more years of Buhari with Osinbajo as VP

SS is not Pdp,
SS always go for the ruling party,
SS also vote for Pdp because of ineffectual buffoon.
Those governors in SS like Okowa,ayade and thief wike are all working for the ruling party.

[s]

ModsareChevres:
What is the essence of appreciation that ends at the polls and in a loss

Wike, Fayose, FFK and co sustained PDP while SE PDP politicians were revamping to APC left right centre.

Had Saraki and co not joined PDP, it would have been dead by now.

As it stands, SW has no stake in PDP. The VP slot will give us the confidence to ditch Osinbajo.

Have you guys gotten tired of 'Buhari till 2023, Igbo presidency' already

POP's showing in Osun shows Yorubas are tired of APC.

[/s]
Please stop this nonsense. The sw don't need VP from PDP. Please stop disgracing Yoruba people here. The VP slot is for Ibos

QuotaSystem:
It is very valid to permute that the votes from the 4 excluded northern states (Benue, Plateau, Nassarawa, Taraba) will be shared by both candidates as federal might will play out (both parties will rig anyway). With 19 million registered voters in the North West and 10 million in the North East which are largely homogenic, it is safe to say anyone who loses these key regions has lost the 2019 elections. With another 14 million registered voters in the SW which is APC's stronghold and Atiku's slant towards choosing a SE VP, his campaign team should be very worried.

Note that this is not to say Atiku will not record a sizable number of votes from the Northern States, but the ratio will pale in significance to Buhari's potential landslide victory in the region. - Q.S

You have a fairly good Analysis, but your mistake is failing to analyse the large population Northern Christians and Liberal non-Hausa fulani muslims all over the 19 northern states posses.

Northern christians which form not less than 30% of the population of the 19 northern states are all going to vote Atiku.
Apart from Benue, Taraba, Plateau & Nasarawa which you hinted, Atiku will also win Kwara, Kogi, FCT and Adamawa.

Do you know that Kaduna state which has the 2nd highest registered voters in the North and 3rd highest voters in the entire Nigeria will be heavily divided by Atiku? You forgot the Southern Kaduna factor, perhaps you think all NorthWestern states are Hausa-fulani states and will all give 100% of their votes to Buhari.

Only Ebira people support Buhari in Kogi state because of Yahaya Bello. Their votes are not enough for Buhari to win Kogi.
Saraki factor will play out in Kwara.

Atiku has always been a godfather in Adamawa politics right from the days of old Gongola state (Taraba & Adamawa) where he won the governorship elections.

In 2011 when Buhari won all Hausa fulani states, He lost Adamawa.

As for the North-central, check this link to a thread below and see the ass whooping Atiku is giving to Buhari in the largest North-central forum online.

https://www.nairaland.com/4778327/picture-proofs-atiku-sweeping-votes

IbrahimDamola:
The truth hurts but yoruba cannot wish it away. Political history tells us SESS vote as a bloc, your scream of 'attachee by force' have not changed that reality and will not change it in future.

You have your ambitions, the East also have theirs, If APC did not choose SS as a running mate to buhari in 2015 while trying to pacify GEJ's SS region why should PDP choose SW region to pacify SW now?

It doesn't work like that.

The trap the SW wants to set for Atiku by asking for the SW VP is clear even to the blind. SW will gain a lot if they ditch the Buhari/Osibanjo ticket and vote for Equity, fairness of Atiku/Obi ticket. So that in future posterity will remember you for kicking out a tyrant without proper certificate who came to destroy national cohesion and promote disunity with divisive comments.

Still you haven't told me what the SE stand to gain or lose if they don't support Atiku for fielding a SW VP and he loses to Buhari running with a SW VP.

What will the SE do under these circumstances

Nobody decides for Yorubas. We know what is in our best interest.

Right now, we have the VP. Are we going to give it up just "So that in future posterity will remember you for kicking out a tyrant without proper certificate who came to destroy national cohesion and promote disunity with divisive comments".

Come on, that's bullsshiit. We all remember how GEJ marginalised Yorubas and favoured the SE despite the sacrifices we put in to make him president.

Sorry, we are wiser now...

Nowenuse:
You have a fairly good Analysis, but your mistake is failing to analyse the large population Northern Christians and Liberal non-Hausa fulani muslims all over the 19 northern states posses.

Northern christians which form not less than 30% of the population of the 19 northern states are all going to vote Atiku.
Apart from Benue, Taraba, Plateau & Nasarawa which you hinted, Atiku will also win Kwara, Kogi, FCT and Adamawa.

Do you know that Kaduna state which has the 2nd highest registered voters in the North and 3rd highest voters in the entire Nigeria will be heavily divided by Atiku? You forgot the Southern Kaduna factor, perhaps you think all NorthWestern states are Hausa-fulani states and will all give 100% of their votes to Buhari.

Only Ebira people support Buhari in Kogi state because of Yahaya Bello. Their votes are not enough for Buhari to win Kogi.
Saraki factor will play out in Kwara.

Atiku has always been a godfather in Adamawa politics right from the days of old Gongola state (Taraba & Adamawa) where he won the governorship elections.

In 2011 when Buhari won all Hausa fulani states, He lost Adamawa.

As for the North-central, check this link to a thread below and see the ass whooping Atiku is giving to Buhari in the largest North-central forum online.

https://www.nairaland.com/4778327/picture-proofs-atiku-sweeping-votes

You also forgot to mention that Atiku is a Muslim just like Buhari and that religion will be useless in 2019

oodualover:
[s][/s]
Please stop this nonsense. The sw don't need VP from PDP. Please stop disgracing Yoruba people here. The VP slot is for Ibos

Guy, we reasonable Yorubas are tired of Buhari.
The reason we are managing him is Osinbajo. If Yorubas see a prominent Yoruba on the PDP ballot, they won't mind ditching Buhari once and for all.

You buharists don't want PDP to field a SW VP so that Buhari will win easily.

Fafafa foul!

QuotaSystem:
Even before the race starts...

Adamawa govt chooses President Buhari over Atiku Abubakar - Vanguard (2 Hours ago)

By Umar Yusuf YOLA—Adamawa State government has declared support and loyalty to President Muhammadu Buhari as candidate on the platform of All Progressives Congress, APC, for the 2019 presidential election, noting that it is not disturbed by the emergence of the former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, as the presidential candidate of Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/10/adamawa-govt-chooses-president-buhari-over-atiku-abubakar/

After bribing

buhariguy:
SS is not Pdp,
SS always go for the ruling party,
SS also vote for Pdp because of ineffectual buffoon.
Those governors in SS like Okowa,ayade and thief wike are all working for the ruling party.

As far as GEJ is alive and supporting the PDP, APC stand no chance in the SS.

oodualover:
You also forgot to mention that Atiku is a Muslim just like Buhari and that religion will be useless in 2019

Religion will not be useless in much of the north.

Hausa fulanis know or think Buhari is a better muslim who is heavily pro-Arewa.
Northern Christians know Atiku is more of a liberal muslim and will definitely be a better leader to them.

Liberal northern muslims like those of Kogi, Kwara and to an extent Niger & Nasarawa are the only ones I can really say religion is useless to here.

ModsareChevres:
Guy, we reasonable Yorubas are tired of Buhari.
The reason we are managing him is Osinbajo. If Yorubas see a prominent Yoruba on the PDP ballot, they won't mind ditching Buhari once and for all.

You buharists don't want PDP to field a SW VP so that Buhari will win easily.

Fafafa foul!

Atiku will pick an Ibo as his vice. You better accept this. Ibos won't support him if he does not do this. He has to choose an Ibo person. I don't really like Buhari but I support him for a second term