₦airaland Forum

khingTony:
politics don turn Mathematics

February will be a sad month for you, but for now, collect this one

Check the 2016 rivers rerun and how 2015 akwa ibom was delivered and get back to me.you need serious political tutorials

Self delusion @ it's finest.

Buhari will only loose this election, if he does not want to win.
Except for Death, or last minute high level betrayals, this election is a walkover.

PDP made their first mistake by not taming FFK, Fayose and Omokri, when they were busy insulting an entire tribe what did Atiku do about it, so fulanis are no more gworo chewing bastards, and like someone said they fulanis don't forget.

How many high profile Notherners, westerns or southerners have you seen with Atiku, outside Saraki who is already aware of his political death. Even Tambuwal and Kwakwanso are not even aligning with him.

This is how the election will be, undervoting in Atiku's stronghold, over voting in Buharis strong hold, this election will be determined by who can buy the other parties pooling unit over, the more.
This is not gubernatorial elections it is Presidential. The better spender will win this time, Atiku will have to choose between going broke and loosing gallantly or being stingy and loosing woefully.


And before I sign off, the combined efforts of Ribadu, Bindow, Aisha and the crown Prince of Adamawa will be overwhelming in Adamawa.... If you know, you know.

socialmediaman:
You need to rethink your figures and "FACTS", they're awfully far from reality. Let me straighten this up for you.

NW will definitely go for Buhari, but here's the plan. in 2015, Buhari won over 85% of the votes in Kano. With Kwankwaso on board fully, Atiku aims to cut Buhari's win in Kano down to 70% or even 65% and this is great news for Atiku. Same for Sokoto. Atiku will do with a loss in Kaduna and the rest of NW states, but he would likely do much better than GEJ, 25% is all he needs. Sadly, the people who can stop Buhari in NW, like the Yaraduas, who were members of the Kaduna Mafia, are no longer there. Buhari is a bit lucky this time but Kwankwaso and Tambuwal will cut his margins of win!

North East comes to play, here. Bauchi, Borno and Yobe are Buhari's strongholds. God help him if he ever performs poorly in these regions due to his poor governance. Atiku will aim to get up to 25 - 35% of votes in this region. Gombe and Taraba are like 50/50 for both Buhari and Atiku. My prediction is that Buhari's poor performance will hurt him, but we're waiting for on the spot analysis from correspondents.

Now to the SW, however you see it, the votes of south west would be divided, why? the last governorship elections show that PDP is strong in this region, secondly, Buhari's poor performance will hurt him very badly. This is a region that Buhari lost elections in the past, his only lifeline in this region is Tinubu, but guess what, the SW does not always vote sentimentally at the presidential election. When OBJ contested, they didnt vote massively for him. when GEJ was said to have performed badly, they voted him out, same may likely happen to Buhari. Get my point, in the SW, APC may win the state elections, but presidential election? Thats a close call, its probably 50/50, however you see it.

Now the South East, Atiku has this region in the bag. You must understand something about this region, they vote differently in the governorship and presidential elections. When Ojukwu contested elections from APGA, they voted APGA at the governorship elections but voted PDP at the presidential election. If Buhari gets up to 20% of the votes in this region, he is very lucky. Ngige and the rest will not help him, they will only help the senatorial and governorship candidates, but not Buhari. This is the bitter truth.

Now in South South, very similar voting pattern as SE but there's one thing important to note here: South South has one of the highest voter turnouts in the country, higher than the national average. So a significant win for Atiku here will ramp up his total votes towards winning the election. Sorry, i doubt Akpabio and Amaechi can help Buhari in this region, they may only help the state election candidates. In fact, APC may even win the governorship election in Akwa Ibom, but Buhari wil likely not get up to 25% in any of the SS states except Edo.

Let's head to the North Central now. I decided to analyze this last because i believe the decider votes would come from this region. If Buhari loses up to 2 states here (which he likely will), he cannot win the presidential election. Already it looks like he'll be losing Kwara and Benue. Niger, Plateau and Kogi states are too close to call for now

The odds just don't favor Buhari at this time, and Obasanjo's recent attacks on him seem to be precisely timed.

[s]

Proudlyngwa:
Self delusion @ it's finest.

Buhari will only loose this election, if he does not want to win.
Except for Death, or last minute high level betrayals, this election is a walkover.

PDP made their first mistake by not taming FFK, Fayose and Omokri, when they were busy insulting an entire tribe what did Atiku do about it, so fulanis are no more gworo chewing bastards, and like someone said they fulanis don't forget.

How many high profile Notherners, westerns or southerners have you seen with Atiku, outside Saraki who is already aware of his political death. Even Tambuwal and Kwakwanso are not even aligning with him.

This is how the election will be, undervoting in Atiku's stronghold, over voting in Buharis strong hold, this election will be determined by who can buy the other parties pooling unit over, the more.
This is not gubernatorial elections it is Presidential. The better spender will win this time, Atiku will have to choose between going broke and loosing gallantly or being stingy and loosing woefully.


And before I sign off, the combined efforts of Ribadu, Bindow, Aisha and the crown Prince of Adamawa will be overwhelming in Adamawa.... If you know, you know.

[/s]
Coneheads logic from Oshogbo

socialmediaman:
You need to rethink your figures and "FACTS", they're awfully far from reality. Let me straighten this up for you.

NW will definitely go for Buhari, but here's the plan. in 2015, Buhari won over 85% of the votes in Kano. With Kwankwaso on board fully, Atiku aims to cut Buhari's win in Kano down to 70% or even 65% and this is great news for Atiku. Same for Sokoto. Atiku will do with a loss in Kaduna and the rest of NW states, but he would likely do much better than GEJ, 25% is all he needs. Sadly, the people who can stop Buhari in NW, like the Yaraduas, who were members of the Kaduna Mafia, are no longer there. Buhari is a bit lucky this time but Kwankwaso and Tambuwal will cut his margins of win!

North East comes to play, here. Bauchi, Borno and Yobe are Buhari's strongholds. God help him if he ever performs poorly in these regions due to his poor governance. Atiku will aim to get up to 25 - 35% of votes in this region. Gombe and Taraba are like 50/50 for both Buhari and Atiku. My prediction is that Buhari's poor performance will hurt him, but we're waiting for on the spot analysis from correspondents.

Now to the SW, however you see it, the votes of south west would be divided, why? the last governorship elections show that PDP is strong in this region, secondly, Buhari's poor performance will hurt him very badly. This is a region that Buhari lost elections in the past, his only lifeline in this region is Tinubu, but guess what, the SW does not always vote sentimentally at the presidential election. When OBJ contested, they didnt vote massively for him. when GEJ was said to have performed badly, they voted him out, same may likely happen to Buhari. Get my point, in the SW, APC may win the state elections, but presidential election? Thats a close call, its probably 50/50, however you see it.

Now the South East, Atiku has this region in the bag. You must understand something about this region, they vote differently in the governorship and presidential elections. When Ojukwu contested elections from APGA, they voted APGA at the governorship elections but voted PDP at the presidential election. If Buhari gets up to 20% of the votes in this region, he is very lucky. Ngige and the rest will not help him, they will only help the senatorial and governorship candidates, but not Buhari. This is the bitter truth.

Now in South South, very similar voting pattern as SE but there's one thing important to note here: South South has one of the highest voter turnouts in the country, higher than the national average. So a significant win for Atiku here will ramp up his total votes towards winning the election. Sorry, i doubt Akpabio and Amaechi can help Buhari in this region, they may only help the state election candidates. In fact, APC may even win the governorship election in Akwa Ibom, but Buhari wil likely not get up to 25% in any of the SS states except Edo.

Let's head to the North Central now. I decided to analyze this last because i believe the decider votes would come from this region. If Buhari loses up to 2 states here (which he likely will), he cannot win the presidential election. Already it looks like he'll be losing Kwara and Benue. Niger, Plateau and Kogi states are too close to call for now

The odds just don't favor Buhari at this time, and Obasanjo's recent attacks on him seem to be precisely timed.

First of all,i commend how you stated your points reasonable.starting from the north central,the jos crowd of buhari has summarized everything.buhari has never lost niger and wont know.majority of kwarans want saraki out so its 50 50.plateau will go either way narrowly same as benue.apc is far stronger in kogi,you could see the kogi rerun.pdp has been depleted in nasarawa.
South west will share votes but will narrowly go to buhari.buhari has never lost gombe so he will still win there.
In reality,voters turnout is usually low and abysmal but pdp usually inflates the votesand turnout.the card readers in 2015 partially exposed this.ask people on ground.with two northerners contesting,expect low turnout here.plus apc has gotten stronger here.you can see the various rerun polls.its only in bayelsa that buhari will get nothing.googling had 4.7 million here in 2015 while buhari had 400k.expect a lower figure for atiku and a higher one for buhari.

Buhari scored less than 10% in all ss and se states except in edo and imo but still won while gej scored up to 15% in all ne/nw states except yobe,borno and katsina but still lost.
Atiku is expected to get up to 20% in all northern states while buhari will certainly up to 15% in all states

senatordave1:
Check the 2016 rivers rerun and how 2015 akwa ibom was delivered and get back to me.you need serious political tutorials

Akwa Ibom delivered what?

khingTony:
Akwa Ibom delivered what?

Up buhari

senatordave1:
Up buhari

APC is strong in Bayelsa o, and also in Cross River. Seriake Dickson, GEJ and all their gangs narrowly escaped Sylva onslaught in the last Gubernatorial in Bayelsa and because Buhari just don't want to hurt GEJ. Bookmark this post for save keep; APC would pull some surprise in Bayelsa and the whole of south south.

Babacele:
APC is strong in Bayelsa o, and also in Cross River. Seriake Dickson, GEJ and all their gangs narrowly escaped Sylva onslaught in the last Gubernatorial in Bayelsa and because Buhari just don't want to hurt GEJ. Bookmark this post for save keep; APC would pull some surprise in Bayelsa and the whole of south south.

Actually i know but i want to underestimate or downplay the performance of apc

socialmediaman:
You need to rethink your figures and "FACTS", they're awfully far from reality. Let me straighten this up for you.

NW will definitely go for Buhari, but here's the plan. in 2015, Buhari won over 85% of the votes in Kano. With Kwankwaso on board fully, Atiku aims to cut Buhari's win in Kano down to 70% or even 65% and this is great news for Atiku. Same for Sokoto. Atiku will do with a loss in Kaduna and the rest of NW states, but he would likely do much better than GEJ, 25% is all he needs. Sadly, the people who can stop Buhari in NW, like the Yaraduas, who were members of the Kaduna Mafia, are no longer there. Buhari is a bit lucky this time but Kwankwaso and Tambuwal will cut his margins of win!

North East comes to play, here. Bauchi, Borno and Yobe are Buhari's strongholds. God help him if he ever performs poorly in these regions due to his poor governance. Atiku will aim to get up to 25 - 35% of votes in this region. Gombe and Taraba are like 50/50 for both Buhari and Atiku. My prediction is that Buhari's poor performance will hurt him, but we're waiting for on the spot analysis from correspondents.

Now to the SW, however you see it, the votes of south west would be divided, why? the last governorship elections show that PDP is strong in this region, secondly, Buhari's poor performance will hurt him very badly. This is a region that Buhari lost elections in the past, his only lifeline in this region is Tinubu, but guess what, the SW does not always vote sentimentally at the presidential election. When OBJ contested, they didnt vote massively for him. when GEJ was said to have performed badly, they voted him out, same may likely happen to Buhari. Get my point, in the SW, APC may win the state elections, but presidential election? Thats a close call, its probably 50/50, however you see it.

Now the South East, Atiku has this region in the bag. You must understand something about this region, they vote differently in the governorship and presidential elections. When Ojukwu contested elections from APGA, they voted APGA at the governorship elections but voted PDP at the presidential election. If Buhari gets up to 20% of the votes in this region, he is very lucky. Ngige and the rest will not help him, they will only help the senatorial and governorship candidates, but not Buhari. This is the bitter truth.

Now in South South, very similar voting pattern as SE but there's one thing important to note here: South South has one of the highest voter turnouts in the country, higher than the national average. So a significant win for Atiku here will ramp up his total votes towards winning the election. Sorry, i doubt Akpabio and Amaechi can help Buhari in this region, they may only help the state election candidates. In fact, APC may even win the governorship election in Akwa Ibom, but Buhari wil likely not get up to 25% in any of the SS states except Edo.

Let's head to the North Central now. I decided to analyze this last because i believe the decider votes would come from this region. If Buhari loses up to 2 states here (which he likely will), he cannot win the presidential election. Already it looks like he'll be losing Kwara and Benue. Niger, Plateau and Kogi states are too close to call for now

The odds just don't favor Buhari at this time, and Obasanjo's recent attacks on him seem to be precisely timed.

Analysis on paper. When I saw APC losing in Kwara I just laughed. May God spare our lives, February 16 ain't that far

APC in trouble

senatordave1:
Abia last boy,JUST A FEW FACTS

Do you know that if you remove 198, 248 votes that Buhari got in SE and add to Jonathan’s 2,464,906.00 votes, that Buhari still won the election 2,175,263 votes? Also, if you take the entire SS votes (418,590) to Buhari and give to Jonathan in addition to the entire SE votes to going to Jonathan, Buhari still won the election by 1,338,083 votes. What this means is that with the entire SS and SE voting Jonathan, Buhari would have still won the election by over 1.3m votes.

Okay, you think Jonathan got no votes in the North? You are wrong. In NC he got 1,715,818 votes, in NW he got 1,339,709 votes and in NE he got 796,588 votes. So he got a total of 3,852,115 in the North and if those entire votes are given to PMB, he would have won the election with over 10m votes (19,277,036 vs. 9,001,047).

Okay, you think the voting pattern would change this time as two Hausa-Fulani and Muslim brothers are running? I think so too. But the first point is that you that is NOT a Northerner should know that your vote is insignificant. The North and to some extent the SW will determine who will always be the President as far as politics remains a game of number. Okay, to that your thinking that the voting trend would change. Yes, Buhari WILL NEVER, I repeat WILL NEVER get only 7% of the votes cast in SE again. NEVER! They can’t write results again. I am confident of 35% at least. And in SS, I am confident of 35% at least. 55% at least in SW. And in the North, Jonathan got 24% of the votes in 2015, I am confident that Atiku cannot get more than 35% of the votes cast in Northern Nigeria. And in absolute figures, Buhari would win by over 3m.

Anyway, the main issue here is that our votes in SE and SS can’t change anything if PMB gets 70% or more votes in the North and 55% or more votes in SW.
Please stop making noise if you don’t have electoral value.

Zik and Tafawa Balewa formed government in first Republic without western votes and second Republic NPN and NPP (1979 and 1983)formed another government without western votes and recently in 1999 Obasanjo won without Yoruba votes,so my question is,when did Yoruba votes start to count in Nigeria political history?

mynd1:
lol, my problem with u ipobs is that u guys lack political knowledge and dont even know what u want. Some months back is biafra or death,now its atikulated

Shut up

You that want Nigeria and buhari, how is your life?

senatordave1:
Abia last boy,JUST A FEW FACTS

Do you know that if you remove 198, 248 votes that Buhari got in SE and add to Jonathan’s 2,464,906.00 votes, that Buhari still won the election 2,175,263 votes? Also, if you take the entire SS votes (418,590) to Buhari and give to Jonathan in addition to the entire SE votes to going to Jonathan, Buhari still won the election by 1,338,083 votes. What this means is that with the entire SS and SE voting Jonathan, Buhari would have still won the election by over 1.3m votes.

Okay, you think Jonathan got no votes in the North? You are wrong. In NC he got 1,715,818 votes, in NW he got 1,339,709 votes and in NE he got 796,588 votes. So he got a total of 3,852,115 in the North and if those entire votes are given to PMB, he would have won the election with over 10m votes (19,277,036 vs. 9,001,047).

Okay, you think the voting pattern would change this time as two Hausa-Fulani and Muslim brothers are running? I think so too. But the first point is that you that is NOT a Northerner should know that your vote is insignificant. The North and to some extent the SW will determine who will always be the President as far as politics remains a game of number. Okay, to that your thinking that the voting trend would change. Yes, Buhari WILL NEVER, I repeat WILL NEVER get only 7% of the votes cast in SE again. NEVER! They can’t write results again. I am confident of 35% at least. And in SS, I am confident of 35% at least. 55% at least in SW. And in the North, Jonathan got 24% of the votes in 2015, I am confident that Atiku cannot get more than 35% of the votes cast in Northern Nigeria. And in absolute figures, Buhari would win by over 3m.

Anyway, the main issue here is that our votes in SE and SS can’t change anything if PMB gets 70% or more votes in the North and 55% or more votes in SW.
Please stop making noise if you don’t have electoral value.

You are the real prophet

ABIA1stman:
APC in trouble. There's no way Bubu is going to win this election, not with Kwankwaso in Kano, Tambuwal in Sokoto.

Already SE and SS are already in the bag for Atiku. NC is going to Atiku by 65%.

Overall, Atiku shall win by a landslide. BY HIS GRACE

How market?