MrJanuzaj:


Dont mind them. I am seeing 500k sef

chozzy:



Bro, stop demonising your zone.
There's far more rigging among the core Northern states than your South.

I remember when Goodluck Jonathan was interviewed about the conduct of the 2015 elections and he singled out Buhari's 2m votes in Kano.
He wondered why Buhari could score 2m votes while the total votes of the three Kano Senators in an election that held same day and time as the
presidential elections was less than a million.

I have to attack my zone because its a rigging area.people were more anxious to vote buhari na,buhari was the major concern.between rivers that produce 2 million out of 2.4 million votes and kano that produce 2.1 million out of 4.5 million,who rigs more?

senatordave1:

He will get up to 500,000 while atiku wont exceed 2.4 million.

Bookmark this please. Dont forget to quote me after election. Atiku will not score more than 1.5 million votes in southeast. Please dont forget to quote me after election.

PaChukwudi44:

Presidential polls always generate huge voter turnout.

Na lie oga. Gubernatorial polls generates more votes.

PaChukwudi44:

you think this is 2015 when APC had the north on lockdown.Wake up dude this is 2019!!!

They now have even have the north even more on lockdoen now that they have federal might.in 2015,they did it with little resources.kwankwaso,tambuwal and lamido will try to resist but will be overwhelmed just like oshiimhole and amaechi was in 2015.apc also have the machinery to even resist pdp rigging down south and even overwhelmed them.

MrJanuzaj:


Bookmark this please. Dont forget to quote me after election. Atiku will not score more than 1.5 million votes in southeast. Please dont forget to quote me after election.

With ipob boycott,am seeing less than 1 million but in full polls,i see 2.5 million.

senatordave1:

They now have even have the north even more on lockdoen now that they have federal might.in 2015,they did it with little resources.kwankwaso,tambuwal and lamido will try to resist but will be overwhelmed just like oshiimhole and amaechi was in 2015.apc also have the machinery to even resist pdp rigging down south and even overwhelmed them.

its a waste of time debating with you.Go ahead and believe whatever makes you happy.All you know is federal might.Come and rig in kano lets seem

The voters turnout in SE &SS are somewhat overrated, it is going range from 35% -55%. These are two northern extraction candidates.

PDP rigged the numbers in 2015 presidential in rivers, delta and even Akwaibom in 2015..... Don't forget that.

The Op tried doing a dispassionate job, but his preference affected his analysis.

chinchum:
The voters turnout in SE &SS are somewhat overrated, it is going range from 35% -55%. These are two northern extraction candidates.

PDP rigged the numbers in 2015 presidential in rivers, delta and even Akwaibom in 2015..... Don't forget that.

So the numbers in kano and katsina was not rigged? You smoke kwale w**d?

PaChukwudi44:

So the numbers in kano and katsina was not rigged? You smoke kwale w**d?

voters turn out in KAno and katsina were all less than 60% of pvc collected in those states, when you compare delta, akwa ibom and rivers, it was over 80%..........

chinchum:
voters turn out in KAno and katsina were all less than 60% of pvc collected in those states, when you compare delta, akwa ibom and rivers, it was over 80%..........

You are a terrible liar!!!! A very terrible one.Voters turnout in rivers in 2015 was less than 60%

senatordave1:

With ipob boycott,am seeing less than 1 million but in full polls,i see 2.5 million.

Even without the ipob boycott.
Highest PDP will poll in the following states are: highest ooo.

Anambra - 250k, Imo - 300k Enugu - 400k, Ebonyi -250k, Abia. 300k.
Where is your 2.5 million comming from?
Kano and Jigawa will wipe out the entire southeast for PMB. Sokoto, Katsina, Kaduna and Kebbi will do the magic on Southsouth. .

Adamawa will neutralize Taraba. .

Kogi, Kwara, Nassarawa and FCT will fall on Platueae and Benue.


Bauchi, Zamfara, Bornu, Yobe, Niger and Gombe are on the standbye oo

I have not yalked about southwest ooo

PaChukwudi44:

You are a terrible liar!!!! A very terrible one.Voters turnout in rivers in 2015 was less than 60%

Statistics don't lie, in 2015, 2 million pvc's collected, and 1.6 million voters. in Rivers.......

chinchum:


Statistics don't lie, in 2015, 2 million pvc's collected, and 1.6 million voters. in Rivers.......

Now tell us the PVCs collected in kano vs the votes casted

PaChukwudi44:

Now tell us the PVCs collected in kano vs the votes casted

In Kano, 2015, 4.1 million pvc collected versus 2 million votes. roughly 50% of voters . The internet is there to help you

chozzy:



Enugu, Abia and Imo have about 2m registered voters each.

Anambra has about 2.4m while Ebonyi has 1.4

There will be voter apathy like it had always been in the east, few states will record above 70% turnout.

chinchum:


In Kano, 2015, 4.1 million pvc collected versus 2 million votes. roughly 50% of voters . The internet is there to help you

So once voters turnout is more thsn 50% then its rigged? Where did you get this logic from?

Blackfriday:
u sure u can bet ur life on this. Adamawa and most especially benue is on the kitty for pdp

Lol I can't bet my life on anything Benue is not for PDP, don't allow the media reports about killings in Benue mislead you. It is going to be tough for the PDP there. PMB will also win Adamawa.

@MrJanuzaj and @Senatordave1

Less we forget, below are registered voters in each state. I read your posts throwing millions
around in different states for Buhari

REGISTERED VOTERS

1 Abia 1,932,892

2 Adamawa 1,973,083

3 Akwa Ibom 2,119,727

4 Anambra 2,447,996

5 Bauchi 2,462,843

6 Bayelsa 923,182

7 Benue 2,480,131

8 Borno 2,315,956

9 Cross River 1,527,289

10 Delta 2,845,274

11 Ebonyi 1,459,933

12 Edo 2,210,534

13 Ekiti 909,967

14 Enugu 1,944,016

15 FCT 1,344,856

16 Gombe 1,394,393

17 Imo 2,272,293

18 Jigawa 2,111,106

19 Kaduna 3,932,492

20 Kano 5,457,747

21 Katsina 3,230,230

22 Kebbi 1,806,231

23 Kogi 1,646,350

24 Kwara 1,406,457

25 Lagos 6,570,291

26 Nasarawa 1,617,786

27 Niger 2,390,035

28 Ogun 2,375,003

29 Ondo 1,822,346

30 Osun 1,680,498

31 Oyo 2,934,107

32 Plateau 2,480,455

33 Rivers 3,215,273

34 Sokoto 1,903,166

35 Taraba 1,777,105

36 Yobe 1,365,913

37 Zamfara 1,717,128

Total 84,004,084

NEW VOTERS 15,170,608

PaChukwudi44:

its a waste of time debating with you.Go ahead and believe whatever makes you happy.All you know is federal might.Come and rig in kano lets seem

Buhari will trash atiku same way city is doing to Chelsea.

Guy your analysis is flawed. You didn't take into consideration voter turnout which is usually very low in the SE. PMB will get more votes in the NE than they did in 2015. Atiku cannot win Adamawa, never!!! The margins he may get will come from the SE but their votes are very negligible. Elections is not by rally crowd or the noise ppl make online, it's about structures. Look at all the states and tell me how many political strong men Atiku has to stand for him to guarantee victory. PMB has sitting governors, senators and other influential grassroot people in almost all the states.

In Kano, kwankwaso is struggling against six strong men who have defeated him before (Shekarau) Atiku has only sule Lamido in Jigawa, who does he have in Adamawa, Katsina, Borno, To be etc

But osun state is not with buhari i swear

san316:
Guy your analysis is flawed. You didn't take into consideration voter turnout which is usually very low in the SE. PMB will get more votes in the NE than they did in 2015. Atiku cannot win Adamawa, never!!! The margins he may get will come from the SE but their votes are very negligible. Elections is not by rally crowd or the noise ppl make online, it's about structures. Look at all the states and tell me how many political strong men Atiku has to stand for him to guarantee victory. PMB has sitting governors, senators and other influential grassroot people in almost all the states.

In Kano, kwankwaso is struggling against six strong men who have defeated him before (Shekarau) Atiku has only sule Lamido in Jigawa, who does he have in Adamawa, Katsina, Borno, To be etc

It's expected that turn out in South East will be better now that they have their own man Peter Obi
on the ballot. You're right with your other observations

chozzy:



It's expected that turn out in South East will be better now that they have their own man Peter Obi
on the ballot. You're right with your other observations

Never underestimate the role of Nnamdi Kanu in affecting the turnout in the SE. Just as we have foolish illiterates toking their lives for politicians in the north, that's how we hv them in the east too.

san316:


Never underestimate the role of Nnamdi Kanu in affecting the turnout in the SE. Just as we have foolish illiterates toking their lives for politicians in the north, that's how we hv them in the east too.

That guy is a spoiler for Atiku/Obi

chozzy:



Wao, bro, this your comment has weight. It's pregnant with so many things

I am a babe. I said this cos with the way APC is going, I do not see APC losing. The election will be like a football match with the coach saying "if you miss the ball don't miss the leg"

san316:
Guy your analysis is flawed. You didn't take into consideration voter turnout which is usually very low in the SE. PMB will get more votes in the NE than they did in 2015. Atiku cannot win Adamawa, never!!! The margins he may get will come from the SE but their votes are very negligible. Elections is not by rally crowd or the noise ppl make online, it's about structures. Look at all the states and tell me how many political strong men Atiku has to stand for him to guarantee victory. PMB has sitting governors, senators and other influential grassroot people in almost all the states.

In Kano, kwankwaso is struggling against six strong men who have defeated him before (Shekarau) Atiku has only sule Lamido in Jigawa, who does he have in Adamawa, Katsina, Borno, To be etc

So what you saying is that the elections will be rigged? Is that what you are trying to say? Cos I wonder where this statement "politically strong men to stand for him" is coming from.

chozzy:
2019 presidential election results will be very close. The table below is my candit prediction without political inclinations and baring in mind Buhari's incumbency factor and a promise of a free and fair election.

Incumbent president Buhari is projected to emerge victorious in more than half the states, but trails Mr Abubakar in total votes . He will gain more votes in SS and SE than he did in 2015 but this will not be enough to offset those Mr Abubakar will gain in Mr Buhari's former strongholds of NW, NE and NC. Mr Buhari is however, projected to win all SW states but with minimal margins.

Currently, Atiku Abubakar has a slight edge but must work harder and use the remaining week to widen his victory margins. From the Nigerian experience, when results are close the incumbent wins. It's not yet Uhuru for Mr Abubakar.

Bro if it's remains this way then the result will be inconclusive the difference is 300k and for sure no of voided votes will surely be more than the difference...

so a re run is on cards...
This post is not analytical enough voter turnout wasn't factored in... A criteria that would bring down the east nos...The Votes of other parties too wasn't factored in...

Poanan:


So what you saying is that the elections will be rigged? Is that what you are trying to say? Cos I wonder where this statement "politically strong men to stand for him" is coming from.

Election is about mobilization. Using available resources to get people to go out and vote for your preferred candidate. The governors have have thousands of people under their direct influence, they have the resources to sway voters. Remember, PMB was able to win in 2015 because almost the entire northern, south western states became APC states with governors, senators and HOR members decamping. How many governors does Atiku have?

Poanan:


I am a babe. I said this cos with the way APC is going, I do not see APC losing. The election will be like a football match with the coach saying "if you miss the ball don't miss the leg"

Aww, OK sis.
Don't mind GEJ jare ... a very weak being. Got power in his hands but failed to use it.

See how these APC people are so brutal, taking down everything that appears to stand on their way.

Guzel:
Wrong. What's ur margin of error
Did you consider the voting patterns of previous polls.
I can fault many errors in this poll.
1) Abia cannot register more than 500k votes. Abia north will vote APC because of orji uzor kalu and Uche ogah. Abia central will cast protest vote against PDP with support from Alex Otti. PDP will do well in Abia south where the governor comes from but Aba will not vote PDP. They rather stay at home. Nnamdi KANU will play a big role in Abia. In fact the only south east state that will produce close go 700k is Anambra state. The obiano factor is strong for APC here. Remember in the last election APC had more votes than PDP despite peter obi factor. Yes I know politics is local but the APC won't be humiliated as you posted. The Ubas, Nwoye, Ngige, Catholic vs Anglican fight which obi started there will get votes for APC. In Ebonyi APC will do well. In imo whatever the turnout is, PDP cannot defeat APC with more than 40k votes. Orlu wll vote APC. PDP will do well only in owerri zone. PDP will win Enugu convincly because no APC strongman there however, gov ugwuanyi will not stump for Atiku.


In south south, Akwaiobom is 55 to PDP 45 to APC. Delta believes that keeping Atiku away from Aso rock is the surest way to send okowa home. Warri will vote APC, ogboru, Omo Agege, utomi, uduaghan, and the people that claim to be mainstream APC will work for buhari seriously plus Ayiri.
Cross River and Rivers are not for APC but that margin of 1 margin for Atiku won't be there in Rivers. Edo can't be 5050

I can see you playing safe in kwara, Adamawa and Benue. APC will win those States.
How can bayelsa produce more votes than Ekiti. Voting pattern in these states will correct your mistakes there. Atiku 200k in kastina is bonaza. Your Oyo result is not tenable even that of Lagos.
Margin of error here should be more than -10 percent.
My opinion tho

He almost suggests the number of voters in Rivers = Lagos.

Brightwale:
But osun state is not with buhari i swear

And we should not be. We are not called Omoluabi for nothing.