₦airaland Forum

Since the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1999, Nigeria has gone through five cycle of elections. All but one, had ended with victory for the People's Democratic Party(PDP).

The tsunami in 2015 was daring as hitherto impenetrable states got swept away in the euphoria of change. This resulted in an upset with the opposition All Progressives Congress gaining ascendancy to the Presidency with overwhelming gubernatorial success in 22 out of the 32 states in the Country,where elections were entered for.

Irrespective of the wave of the elections ,certain states withstood or had weathered the storm of Presidential might since 1999.

NORTH EAST
Three states stand out here; Borno,Yobe and Taraba.

Borno and Yobe have similar patterns as is their proximity. They have always held sway to the ANPP/CPC/APC bloc. This has also reflected at their gubernatorial elections and other positions up for grasp.

Taraba on the other hand,is unapologetically a PDP state,and have maintained status quo in their voting patterns,since 1999.

NORTH CENTRAL
Plateau and Nasarawa states have gone to the PDP at Presidential levels. Not even did the tide change in 2015 despite the latter fielding an opposition governor (CPC/APC).

Kwara state is peculiar in the sense that whilst the state has wobbled at Presidential elections between contending parties, the shots is been called by the Saraki dynasty. The heir,and President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki is in the fight of his life as for the first time, his territory is been threatened.

NORTH WEST
Zamfara is one state that have tilted towards the ANPP/APC bloc since 1999; and have won all Presidential elections under the said bloc ever since.

SOUTH WEST
No state in the SW has one party as the dominant factor in the Presidential elections since 1999.

Nonetheless,many argue that irrespective of the party winning Lagos, it has been under the precarious disposition of the former Governor, Bola Tinubu.
The Lagos state APC family lost 3 of the 24 House of Representatives seat to the opposition PDP in a show of force which is expected to exacerbate in 2019.

SOUTH SOUTH
This is a formidable political-chest of the PDP since 1999. Despite losing Edo state to the opposition at gubernatorial levels, it is literally a PDP state at Presidential elections.
With the defection of Akpabio,a grand duel is expected in Akwa Ibom state,though many see it as a flash in the pan, referring the state as a one-party state.

SOUTH EAST
The zone and the PDP can be likened to a lion and its den. It is the go-to-guy of the PDP and remains unshaken in its delivery of votes since 1999.


As the 2019 elections is days away,
Which of these states is/are expected to fall to the opposition party on the 23rd of February, 2019 when the Presidential elections come calling?

Do you mean the states being governed by the PDP and APC presently?

1999 Election Results per state

Clerverly:
Do you mean the states being governed by the PDP and APC presently?

The states in which the same party have won the Presidential elections from 1999 till date.

In the north west pdp will obviously take zamfara except apc fields a candidate while sokoto should fall back to apc.jigawa is 50% 50%.
In the north east,apc will continue holding yobe and borno,bauchi,adamawa,taraba is 50 50.gombe will likely fall to apc.
In the north central,kwara should go to apc while benue is 50 50 like nasarawa,niger and plateau.benue is 50 50.
In the west,ogun is 50 50 same as oyo.lagos will be retained.
In the east,imo is 50 50 same as abia.ebonyi and enugu are for pdp.
In the south south,rivers is out same as edo and bayelsa.delta,cross river and akwa ibom na 50 50.this is governorship not presidential oh.

fergie001:
1999 Election Results per state

In presidential election, winning a state is not as important as the margin of win..

For example: Buhari wins Kastina with 2.3 Million votes to Atiku's 100K votes.

While Atiku wins Abia, 300K Buhari 100K, Ebonyi 350K Vs Buhari 100K, Enugu 400K Vs Buhari 100K, Anambra 400K Vs Buhari 100K. Imo 500K Vs Buhari 300K?

Note the Difference;
Buhari 2.3 +100+100+100+100+300=3Million Votes

Atiku 300++350+400+400+500=1.95M.

As you can see the differential for Buhari is still 1.1Million votes in postive, even with Atiku winning 5 States and Buhari 1 State.



That is why it is practically impossible for Atiku to win Buhari on Saturday.

fergie001:
The states in which the same party have won the Presidential elections from 1999 till date.

You are causing confusion.according to the body of the post,its referring to guber tussle while you are saying something else.

fergie001:
The states in which the same party have won the Presidential elections from 1999 till date.

It is going to be flawed Analysis. Many of the States being controlled by the PDP now, have been consistently awarded votes without proper Elections since 1999.

Clerverly:
In presidential election, winning a state is not as important as the margin of win..

For example: Buhari wins Kastina with 2.3 Million votes to Atiku's 100K votes.

While Atiku wins Abia, 300K Buhari 100K, Ebonyi 350K Vs Buhari 100K, Enugu 400K Vs Buhari 100K, Anambra 400K Vs Buhari 100K. Imo 500K Vs Buhari 300K?

Note Difference Buhari 2.3 +100+100+100+100+300=3Million Votes

Atiku 300++350+400+400+500=1.95M.

As you can see the differential for Buhari is still 1.1Million votes in postive, even with Atiku winning 5 States and Buhari 1 State.



That is why it is practically impossible for Atiku to win Buhari on Saturday.

Dont depend on this.do not underrate pdp,they know this and would try to inflate ss,se figures.

senatordave1:
Dont depend on this.do not underrate pdp,they know this and would try to inflate ss,se figures.

I have been involved in electoral process for years..You cannot carry out a widespread rigging in South South And South East without the Federal Power behind you....You can only try but at the end of the day ...the ruling party no matter how unpopular, will match you rigging for rigging..

Why do you think it has been difficult for Wike to carry out successful rigging since 2015?

Senatodave1

Clerverly:
I have been involved in electoral process for years..You cannot carry out a widespread rigging in South South And South East without the Federal Power behind you....You can only try but at the end of the day ...the ruling party no matter how unpopular, will match you rigging for rigging..

Why do you think it has been difficult for Wike to carry out successful rigging since 2015?

Senatodave1

I know,pdp know so they must have figured out a way by now to bypass that.i saw that during the osun polls.pdp inflated figures in ede north and south incredibly which almost made them win.that may be repeated on Saturday.

An APC minion created a thread and start replying themselves, don't fall for it..

Next Saturday is election, let your vote do the talking

senatordave1:
You are causing confusion.according to the body of the post,its referring to guber tussle while you are saying something else.

The states mentioned above have had either the APC or PDP win the Presidential election in that state since 1999.......which of these states on Saturday do you think will these parties lose the Presidential elections. Nothing concerns the gubernatorial.

senatordave1:
I know,pdp know so they must have figured out a way by now to bypass that.i saw that during the osun polls.pdp inflated figures in ede north and south incredibly which almost made them win.that may be repeated on Saturday.

That is why I was specific. South South and South East! We no as e dey go here....What they do here is isolated rigging...

For example

Orji Uzo Kalu will rig Abia North, Ikpeazu Will rig Abia South. APGA, APC and PDP will share Central.

Ebonyi: Julius Ucha( Ucha my Man) will rig Ebonyi Central, PDP And APC will rig North and South( Ogbuorji Afikpo, Umahi Ohaozara, Onicha) Equally..

In Anambra, Andy Uba, will rig his Zone, Obiano Will rig his Zone and Ngige, will rig his Zone..

I'm State, Okorocha will return entire Orlu Zone to Buhari, APC and PDP will share the rest.

The only state PDP will win APC with significant margin is Enugu.

Did you learn anything?

North west; sokoto 70-30,zamfara 85-15,katsina 90-10,kaduna 65-35,kano 80-20,kebbi 77-23,jigawa 75-25

Northeast borno 90-10,yobe 85-15,bauchi 80-20,gombe 65-35,adamawa 45-55,taraba 40-60.
North central niger 80-20,kwara 52-48,nasarawa 50-50,benue 35-65,kogi 55-45,plateau 40-60.
South west;lagos 55-45,ogun 60-40,osun 52 48,ondo 55-45,oyo 65-35,ekiti 50 50.
South east:imo 25-75,enugu 10-90,anambra 20-80,ebonyi 15-85,abia 20-80.
South south: rivers 30-70,bayelsa 10-90,cross river 22-78,delta 27-73,edo 50 50,akwa ibom 42-58.

Binikingdowm:
An APC minion created a thread and start replying themselves, don't fall for it..

Next Saturday is election, let your vote do the talking

Thats your pastime with your numerous edoid monikers.

Clerverly:
That is why I was specific. South South and South East! We no as e dey go here....What they do here is isolated rigging...

For example

Orji Uzo Kalu will rig Abia North, Ikpeazu Will rig Abia South. APGA, APC and PDP will share Central.

Ebonyi: Julius Ucha( Ucha my Man) will rig Ebonyi Central, PDP And APC will rig North and South( Ogbuorji Afikpo, Umahi Ohaozara, Onicha) Equally..

In Anambra, Andy Uba, will rig his Zone, Obiano Will rig his Zone and Ngige, will rig his Zone..

I'm State, Okorocha will return entire Orlu Zone to Buhari, APC and PDP will share the rest.

The only state PDP will win APC with significant margin is Enugu.

Did you learn anything?

Ngige is useless jor,he cant rig anywhere.the only riggers i see in anambra is nwoye,uba and ekwunife.but pdp has oduah to checkmate nwoye while Chris is to andy and obi and chidoka will tackle ekwunife.
In ebonyi,umahi is ruthless.apc cant do much,only elechi can try.am ok with imo,enugu and abia.

Don't fall for it, they are looking for areas to rig, don't disclose your location or any leader in that area, they might arrest them

Don't fall for it

ss,se for PDP and some parts of North Central

Clerverly:
In presidential election, winning a state is not as important as the margin of win..

For example: Buhari wins Kastina with 2.3 Million votes to Atiku's 100K votes.

While Atiku wins Abia, 300K Buhari 100K, Ebonyi 350K Vs Buhari 100K, Enugu 400K Vs Buhari 100K, Anambra 400K Vs Buhari 100K. Imo 500K Vs Buhari 300K?

Note the Difference;
Buhari 2.3 +100+100+100+100+300=3Million Votes

Atiku 300++350+400+400+500=1.95M.

As you can see the differential for Buhari is still 1.1Million votes in postive, even with Atiku winning 5 States and Buhari 1 State.



That is why it is practically impossible for Atiku to win Buhari on Saturday.

You are clever by half! In the entire north (19states) buhari had 12.3 m as against GEJ's 3.8m in 2015. Fast to saturday assuming a 20m voters turnout, it will be 60:40 i.e 12m bbuhari to 8m Atiku.

Hope you can see how bad buhari's situation is.

senatordave1:
Ngige is useless jor,he cant rig anywhere.the only riggers i see in anambra is nwoye,uba and ekwunife.but pdp has oduah to checkmate nwoye while Chris is to andy and obi and chidoka will tackle ekwunife.
In ebonyi,umahi is ruthless.apc cant do much,only elechi can try.am ok with imo,enugu and abia.

Elechi and Ucha are in the same Zone. Calm down, Even elechi cannot get close to Ucha, when he has the Federal backings....Ask Umahi who they fear most in APC, it is Ucha. He single-handed hijacked the APC primaries from Ogbonnaya Onu and shared it...Please dont even mention that...For the Fact that Buhari is in the same election with their Senatorial and House rep ambition...it is a fight to finish.

For Anambra, Chris can't get close to Andy when it comes to rigging... Remember the era of ballot snatching is long gone. So intelligent riggers will carry the day...and Chris remains an illiterate.

senatordave1:
North west; sokoto 70-30,zamfara 85-15,katsina 90-10,kaduna 65-35,kano 80-20,kebbi 77-23,jigawa 75-25

Northeast borno 90-10,yobe 85-15,bauchi 80-20,gombe 65-35,adamawa 45-55,taraba 40-60.
North central niger 80-20,kwara 52-48,nasarawa 50-50,benue 35-65,kogi 55-45,plateau 40-60.
South west;lagos 55-45,ogun 60-40,osun 52 48,ondo 55-45,oyo 65-35,ekiti 50 50.
South east:imo 25-75,enugu 10-90,anambra 20-80,ebonyi 15-85,abia 20-80.
South south: rivers 30-70,bayelsa 10-90,cross river 22-78,delta 27-73,edo 50 50,akwa ibom 42-58.

u try with less bias

senatordave1:
North west; sokoto 70-30,zamfara 85-15,katsina 90-10,kaduna 65-35,kano 80-20,kebbi 77-23,jigawa 75-25

Northeast borno 90-10,yobe 85-15,bauchi 80-20,gombe 65-35,adamawa 45-55,taraba 40-60.
North central niger 80-20,kwara 52-48,nasarawa 50-50,benue 35-65,kogi 55-45,plateau 40-60.
South west;lagos 55-45,ogun 60-40,osun 52 48,ondo 55-45,oyo 65-35,ekiti 50 50.
South east:imo 25-75,enugu 10-90,anambra 20-80,ebonyi 15-85,abia 20-80.
South south: rivers 30-70,bayelsa 10-90,cross river 22-78,delta 27-73,edo 50 50,akwa ibom 42-58.

This actually looks very plausible

tuniski:
You are clever by half! In the entire north (19states) buhari had 12.3 m as against GEJ's 3.8m in 2015. Fast to saturday assuming a 20m voters turnout, it will be 60:40 i.e 12m bbuhari to 8m Atiku.

Hope you can see how bad buhari's situation is.

How many states were being controlled by the PDP in the North During the election?

States like Katsina, Kaduna, Jigawa, Adamawa, Niger, Bauchi, Etc were all PDP...compare it to now...and call the results..

Clerverly:
In presidential election, winning a state is not as important as the margin of win..

For example: Buhari wins Kastina with 2.3 Million votes to Atiku's 100K votes.

While Atiku wins Abia, 300K Buhari 100K, Ebonyi 350K Vs Buhari 100K, Enugu 400K Vs Buhari 100K, Anambra 400K Vs Buhari 100K. Imo 500K Vs Buhari 300K?

Note the Difference;
Buhari 2.3 +100+100+100+100+300=3Million Votes

Atiku 300++350+400+400+500=1.95M.

As you can see the differential for Buhari is still 1.1Million votes in postive, even with Atiku winning 5 States and Buhari 1 State.



That is why it is practically impossible for Atiku to win Buhari on Saturday.

Helloooooooooooooooooooooooo,
so you expect kastina with abt 3.1 million collected PVCs to give PMB/AA 2.3 million/100k votes, then anambra with 2.4 million PVCs collected to now give PMB/AA 100k/500k votes?

Clerverly:
How many states were being controlled by the PDP in the North During the election?

States like Katsina, Kaduna, Jigawa, Adamawa, Niger, Bauchi, Etc were all PDP...compare it to now...and call the results..

The wrong notion many of you hold is that, it only takes having incumbent state governor for a party to have presence. Very wrong , PDP is present in all the 19 northern states with only borno, yobe and zamfara that have not be governed by PDp. The rebellion of 2015 by PDP against GEj in the north has now been replaced with new unity of purpose of sending buhari back to Daura.

The results will shock #teamBuhari on saturday.

Clerverly:
Elechi and Ucha are in the same Zone. Calm down, Even elechi cannot get close to Ucha, when he has the Federal backings....Ask Umahi who they fear most in APC, it is Ucha. He single-handed hijacked the APC primaries from Ogbonnaya Onu and shared it...Please dont even mention that...For the Fact that Buhari is in the same election with their Senatorial and House rep ambition...it is a fight to finish.

For Anambra, Chris can't get close to Andy when it comes to rigging... Remember the era of ballot snatching is long gone. So intelligent riggers will carry the day...and Chris remains an illiterate.

I have always underestimated ucha,i thought that elechi controls ebonyi apc,I've learn new things from you.i know andy is a master rigger like uzodinma in imo thats why he was made anambra campaign head.onu is a good man but weak and too laid back and irrelevant like ngige,i like proactive people.what do you know of emmanuel onwe and edward nkwegu?what is the role of bernard odoh

Osun state

senatordave1:
I have always underestimated ucha,i thought that elechi controls ebonyi apc,I've learn new things from you.i know andy is a master rigger like uzodinma in imo thats why he was made anambra campaign head.onu is a good man but weak and too laid back and irrelevant like ngige,i like proactive people.what do you know of emmanuel onwe and edward nkwegu?what is the role of bernard odoh

Onu has no street credibility in Ebonyi State, hence I didn't mention him. Ucha has all thugs thugs available in Abakaliki, with him working with Uche Ogah, Ebonyi Central is no go area for the PDP. Even Umahi is not counting that zone in his winning projection. Onwe is just Ebonyi politician but Nkwegu is very popular, he dumped LP for APC last two years.

Poor implementation of TSA
It had never been a secret that Nigerian Govt funds housed in many Nigerian banks provided a lot of stability for the financial sector even though it left some loophole for possible corruption but the benefits far outweighed the risks , it was in this light the previous govt agrees that the implementation of the TSA must be staggered in phases so as not to cause financial shock to Nigeria managing Banking industry but Buhari will disregard the advice of expert and go for total implementation over night a costly bad decision that threw the financial sector into sudden confusion as predicted by experts, meaning over night our banks suddenly had less deposits to use to manage the delicate balancing of funds between depositors and lending , ofcourse at such times it's the lending aspect that will suffer as depositors must always have access to their funds as at when they want it because they are in Fact the soul of the banking business . We should note this action was clearly an indirect sabotage to the financial economy similar to a previous Buhari error in the 80s where he changed the Nigerian currency over night in a bid to catch looters
The outcome : the private sector suddenly had less access to loans and as result many economy growing projects where put on hold at great cost to the the Economic kinetics and potential of the Nigerian economy.

Clerverly:
That is why I was specific. South South and South East! We no as e dey go here....What they do here is isolated rigging...

For example

Orji Uzo Kalu will rig Abia North, Ikpeazu Will rig Abia South. APGA, APC and PDP will share Central.

Ebonyi: Julius Ucha( Ucha my Man) will rig Ebonyi Central, PDP And APC will rig North and South( Ogbuorji Afikpo, Umahi Ohaozara, Onicha) Equally..

In Anambra, Andy Uba, will rig his Zone, Obiano Will rig his Zone and Ngige, will rig his Zone..

I'm State, Okorocha will return entire Orlu Zone to Buhari, APC and PDP will share the rest.

The only state PDP will win APC with significant margin is Enugu.

Did you learn anything?

Think again when it comes to SS/SE! Did Rochas return up to a third of his votes to Buhari in 2015 election even as incumbent? The presidential election in SS/SE is usually quite different at the governorship and presidential. Buhari will be lucky to get up to 20% in any SS or SE state except Edo

Even when Ojukwu contested election in 2003, SE voted APGA at the governorship election but voted PDP at the presidential

In 2015, Buhari got some anti-GEJ votes in SS/SE, his performance will be worse due to state of the economy and lopsided political appointments