We do not have any forex controls (you can bring or take as much as dollars as you want) - and our CBK doesn't print USD - so how can we managed to artificially inflate Kshs? If Ghana cannot do it - how can Kenya do it with even less forex reserves.

IMF were wrong - and used Kenya as guinea pig in a new methodology.

vaxx2:

stop lying to us we know. we know how your goverment make it a political issue, since shillings is a sensitive subject cus for percentage of devaluation, the size of your external debt grows. For every shilling borrowed for dollar loans such as the Eurobond in 2014 and the one borrowed in 2019 at around 87 units, a dollar will be paid back at 101.2 units a dollar currently, or higher if it depreciates further. so your goverment understand the reasons for its protection.

looking at the gap between your exports and imports both cyclical and actual, that are currently above normal. a s suggest your currency can never be a true reflection of its value, you can be exporting 5 billion dollar and importing 15 billion dollar worth of goods and still maintain a stable currency... something more is abnormal.... every strong currency have a positive trade balance. your trade negative balance is too huge ....pirchasing power is loosing so drastically ....

And for kenya to have gone to extreme levels to avoid letting IMF specialists put the value of the shilling to scale by failing to disclose crucial data to assess the shilling’s real value also expose your political massage currenc...

rvp20182:
Managed - allowed to float within some target/margin. Plus you have tonnes of Forex controls. Kenya has been free-floating until IMF recently classified us "managed float' and we do not have ANY forex controls.

Are you saying all those who involve in the buisness of buying and selling of forex exchange in Kenya are all licenced by your central bank?


currency control is different from market control....pls go learn about it.. . don't want to be harsh on you today

rvp20182:
We do not have any forex controls (you can bring or take as much as dollars as you want) - and our CBK doesn't print USD - so how can we managed to artificially inflate Kshs? If Ghana cannot do it - how can Kenya do it with even less forex reserves.

IMF were wrong - and used Kenya as guinea pig in a new methodology.

Then why did your goverment refuse to let IMF specialists put the value of the shilling to scale?

why did your goverment failed to disclose crucial data to assess the shilling’s real value?

Forex control and regulation are different. Regulating forex beaureu doesn't mean controlling them. You can buy forex from the counter of any bank in Kenya. Banks, forex shops and anyone with dollars can quote any rate they want. Our central bank only intervene to smoothen things..by buying or selling forexs to open market....but when Kshs is getting serious hits..they let it slid. That is how Kshs has slid from 65 - to 75 to 85 and to 100kshs - and even 107shs. When fundamentals of Kshs are strong it climbs up. It has done this - rising to 80 then back down to 65.

We had forex controls in 1990s - and like Nigeria - or I think Ghana - you needed to apply to Central Bank for forex. Kenyan businessmen, importers or anyone who want forex doesn't even know where CBK offices are...and will never need to go there. Just make a call to you banker, agree on forex rate, and change your money.

All CBK does is to regulate - so banks or forex report all forex deals - to ensure money laundering and illicit money - are not finding their way in.

vaxx2:
Are you saying all those who involve in the buisness of buying and selling of forex exchange in Kenya are all licenced by your central bank?
currency control is different from market control....pls go learn about it.. . don't want to be harsh on you today

When did we refuse for them or anybody out there to come and value KShs . They put Kshs to scale - their own brand new scale - and said it was over-valued - we are still waiting for Kshs to heed to IMF - it seem defiant.

CBK cannot release market-sensitive data - We are not an IMF colony like Ghana.

IMF had said that the Kenyan shilling risks being classified as “managed” rather than operating on demand and supply.
“Reflecting limited movement of the shilling relative to the US dollar, MCM’s (Monetary and Capital Markets’) 2018 report on exchange rate arrangement to be published in February 2018 will reclassify Kenya’s shilling from ‘floating’ to ‘other managed arrangement’,” said IMF. Njoroge said CBK would only release data if it was no longer market-sensitive, adding that this was a global practice.
“ We do not comment on currency interventions until we judge that it is no longer market-sensitive. Check anywhere, the Bank of England, check how much information they reveal ” he said.

The governor added that the interventions were not done with “favourite players in the dark”, but rather during open market operations with banks, which knew whenever CBK intervened.
He also added that Kenya was an open economy with no controls over current or capital accounts.
The Central Bank, the governor said, operated a flexible forex market that did not target any particular rate but allowed the market to price it.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001304396/njoroge-tells-off-imf-over-shilling-value

vaxx2:
Then why did your goverment refuse to let IMF specialists put the value of the shilling to scale?

why did your goverment failed to disclose crucial data to assess the shilling’s real value?

rvp20182:
Forex control and regulation are different. Regulating forex beaureu doesn't mean controlling them. You can buy forex from the counter of any bank in Kenya. Banks, forex shops and anyone with dollars can quote any rate they want. Our central bank only intervene to smoothen things..by buying or selling forexs to open market....but when Kshs is getting serious hits..they let it slid. That is how Kshs has slid from 65 - to 75 to 85 and to 100kshs - and even 107shs. When fundamentals of Kshs are strong it climbs up. It has done this - rising to 80 then back down to 65.

We had forex controls in 1990s - and like Nigeria - or I think Ghana - you needed to apply to Central Bank for forex. Kenyan businessmen, importers or anyone who want forex doesn't even know where CBK offices are...and will never need to go there. Just make a call to you banker, agree on forex rate, and change your money.

All CBK does is to regulate - so banks or forex report all forex deals - to ensure money laundering and illicit money - are not finding their way in.

You should be a good student... The question is , Are all forex exchange dealer regulate in kenya? a simple answer to this will naturally educate you . you don't need to type thesis or literature review... they are many ways to protect weak currency and I can teach you for free....

rvp20182:
When did we refuse for them or anybody out there to come and value KShs . They put Kshs to scale - their own brand new scale - and said it was over-valued - we are still waiting for Kshs to heed to IMF - it seem defiant.

CBK cannot release market-sensitive data - We are not an IMF colony like Ghana.

IMF had said that the Kenyan shilling risks being classified as “managed” rather than operating on demand and supply.
“Reflecting limited movement of the shilling relative to the US dollar, MCM’s (Monetary and Capital Markets’) 2018 report on exchange rate arrangement to be published in February 2018 will reclassify Kenya’s shilling from ‘floating’ to ‘other managed arrangement’,” said IMF. Njoroge said CBK would only release data if it was no longer market-sensitive, adding that this was a global practice.
“ We do not comment on currency interventions until we judge that it is no longer market-sensitive. Check anywhere, the Bank of England, check how much information they reveal ” he said.

The governor added that the interventions were not done with “favourite players in the dark”, but rather during open market operations with banks, which knew whenever CBK intervened.
He also added that Kenya was an open economy with no controls over current or capital accounts.
The Central Bank, the governor said, operated a flexible forex market that did not target any particular rate but allowed the market to price it.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001304396/njoroge-tells-off-imf-over-shilling-value

IMF are smart ? they don't have a brand new scale, they follow simple economic model.... it is so simple ...

You keep increasing negative trade balance and is so huge . that alone is a suspect to your weak currency....


every country with strong currency have a positive trade balance except kenya shillings

Forex dealers are in kenya are regulated to protect consumers, ensure they are no illicit flows or money laundering. There are no Forex controls.Those two are not mutually exclusive. There is nothing you can teach me in any serious subject - except maybe Yoruba customs & voodoo.

vaxx2:
You should be a good student... The question is , Are all forex exchange dealer regulate in kenya? a simple answer to this will naturally educate you . you don't need to type thesis or literature review... they are many ways to protect weak currency and I can teach you for free....

It helps our Central Bank Governor is former senior staffer at the IMF so he understands when junior economist send to kenya tries their monkey business. In any case when is KSHs devaluing?- it been nearly two years since IMF claimed it was overvalued?

Yes kenya has Africa highest trade deficit of 11B dollars...but trade is not only way to get dollars. When you have an well-diversified sophisticated economy like kenya - you do not need to export Gold or Oil to earn Forex. We earn lots of Forex from 'exportable' services sectors.

We have very healthy forex reserves - playing around 6 months of import bill - 9B dollars - way above the recommended 4 months cover.

vaxx2:
IMF are smart ? they don't have a brand new scale, they follow simple economic model.... it is so simple ...

You keep increasing negative trade balance and is so huge . that alone is a suspect to your weak currency....


every country with strong currency have a positive trade balance except kenya shillings

rvp20182:
Forex dealers are in kenya are regulated to protect consumers, ensure they are no illicit flows or money laundering. There are no Forex controls.Those two are not mutually exclusive. There is nothing you can teach me in any serious subject - except maybe Yoruba customs & voodoo.

You have started to loose your grip on inteligence and I will not further hesitate to call you an idiot henceforth .....


Your country operate both regulated and not regulated forex exchange... You cBK knows and it has started clamping on them...

Your cBk do not suffer the problem of demand and supply of their economies. The reason for that which causes this economic challenge is the lack of consistency in the inflows of foreign currencies. Once the importers, travellers (for Air-ticketing), Tenants (Rent payment) need the dollar especially, to enable them to transact businesses, the demand for the dollar will be high amd this is happening in Your country as it is a dollarised country just exactly like Ghana. people prefer dollar to shilling in kenya and yet shilling still maintain false stability against the dollar. something is really wrong . it is either abnormally protected or borrowed money is used in regulating it. they are many non regulated agency who are ready to swap shilling to dollar without the control price. Your cBK is aware.

I am questioning your inteligence.... you know next to nothing on how forex exchange volatility affect exchange rate itself...

surplusk:


Wondering if u ever did some followup to understand the genesis of this discussion before coming up with ur ridiculous post. This time, it wasn't Logical but a mere facts. If the phenomenon seems critical, your country can decide to make some amendment. After all, This is just a comparison between the two nation while we came across a lot of annoying part which can not be over emphasize.

Can someone please translate what this degenerate is trying to convey?

rvp20182:
It helps our Central Bank Governor is former senior staffer at the IMF so he understands when junior economist send to kenya tries their monkey business. In any case when is KSHs devaluing?- it been nearly two years since IMF claimed it was overvalued?

Yes kenya has Africa highest trade deficit of 11B dollars...but trade is not only way to get dollars. When you have an well-diversified sophisticated economy like kenya - you do not need to export Gold or Oil to earn Forex. We earn lots of Forex from 'exportable' services sectors.

We have very healthy forex reserves - playing around 6 months of import bill - 9B dollars - way above the recommended 4 months cover.

Your exportable service service sector is even weak compare to Ghana. 5 billion dollar to 7.5 billion is a big dammn diffrence fool... Ghana reserve already hit 10 billion dollar ..

you can't have a strong currency with negative trade balance. unless you artificially maintained it . either thru massaging or loan to stabilized . you received very mimminal amount of hard currency....


2
OpinionsMon, 18 Mar 2019
The real problem of the Cedi

Ghana Cedi
The Ghana Cedi

Listen to the Article
The economy of Ghana has been a net-importer for at least five (5) decades. Many things that can be produced locally are usually imported. However, these imports have huge impacts on the price at which the Cedi must be exchanged for other foreign currencies.

Demand and Supply of foreign currencies have huge consequences on the price that they must be sold or bought. Demand and Supply of the of the forex is the main determining factor of the price of foreign currency. Countries such as the US and Britain do not need to trade their currency for a new one in order to buy from an international market.

These countries do not suffer the problem of demand and supply of their economies. The reason for that which causes this economic challenge is the lack of consistency in the inflows of foreign currencies. Once the importers, travellers (for Air-ticketing), Tenants (Rent payment) need the dollar especially, to enable them to transact businesses, the demand for the dollar will be high.

The supply of it, on the other hand, depends on the loans including the bonds, grants, cash aid and some foreign exchange from exports that the country receives. Any time there is an imbalance in the equation between demand and supply, the price of the exchange will shoot up. This means the injection of more dollars or other foreign currencies into the economy will only stabilise the rate of the exchange and not constitute a terminal solution.

The real problem of the depreciation of the Ghana Cedi has not been identified in the past. Even if it has been, the solution to the problem has not been applied. The solution is not the injection of the dollar that is often applied by the BoG.

The solution prescribed by many Economists to perpetually solve the depreciation of the Cedi is industrialisation. I heard on Joy FM's programme, Newsfile that industrialisation is a Post-World War tool or strategy designed for countries to enable them to develop and that its relevance has diminished in modern economies. This argument is extremely flawed and does not assess the model properly. Industrialisation is a critical model for the development of countries. The argument that infrastructure is the main development growth strategy that is superior to industrialisation is equally flawed.

There will be heavy infrastructural development if a country industrialises. There cannot be industrialisation without infrastructural development. Infrastructure comes in the form of building roads, railways, factories etc. Industrialisation must be embedded with infrastructural development for countries to really experience the benefits of it. Therefore, industrialisation will be the basis for proper infrastructural development. Industrialisation is a model that is still relevant in modern economic discourse in the 21st century. The argument that Ghana cannot compete with other advanced or industrialised countries is weak.

Industrialisation may not necessarily mean heavy investments in technology and automobile. It can mean the manufacturing of home appliances, shoes, production of foodstuffs, chemicals, fertilisers, production of rice, production of chicken etc. It can begin from cottage industries to light and heavy industries. The East Asian “Tigers” never had it easy in their quest to industrialise. They moved from an easy stage to a more difficult or complicated stage in their industrial development. Japan, America and Britain had already taken off before the East Asians including China emerged. They had the courage and competed with the already advanced economies.

The industrial drive of the country and many other African countries is handicapped because we have resigned to fate and have accepted the belief that we cannot compete with anyone. In building an industrial economy, the idea is not even about competing with advanced countries or economies. It can be the grounds to partner with high-tech companies in developing some of the industries or sectors of the local economy. Industrialisation is not seen as the key to the Economic transformation agenda in Ghana and some African countries because it has been a political rhetoric. It has not been practised in actuality.

It has been paperwork for so many years now. Every country has a comparative advantage that must be identified to have a competitive advantage of other countries. The inability of Ghana to identify its comparative advantage in order to competitively deal with the rest of the world will continue to push the discussion about the exchange rate further and its persistent depreciation will continue for centuries. Industries can be built to put a halt to the importation of some items in our trade. The statistics from our trade indicates huge importation of rice, chicken and other basic goods that can be produced locally. The talks only happen but the search for the solution is not done. The government needs to identify the problem of the Cedi from the data of the Ghana Statistical Service.

The solution to the problem of the Cedi or the exchange rate is in there. Some institutions in Ghana demand that all monies that must be paid to them should be in dollars and not Ghana Cedis. Houses and rent are bought and paid for with the dollar. In solving the Cedi’s depreciation, the state needs to check the feasibility of reverting the regime of valuing products and services provided to the citizens in dollars.

Rent and houses should be valued and sold in Ghana Cedis and not in dollars. One of the ways of controlling the exchange rate is banning the use of foreign currencies in a domestic economy. There is no reason for people to use foreign currency such as the dollar to pay for rent and other services in Ghana. The use of the dollar for Air-ticketing cannot be changed. The method adopted by the BoG to regulate forex trading is ineffective. Those in the Black Market must be banned or have their activities regularised.

let me teach some basic economics fundamental..


Your forex from exportable service does not mean that the excess of value in terms of export is made available to the state. Your excess in value of export may be going for interest payments for loans contracted or bonds issued or the Chinese loan you have taken

Check the source of your data again. There are no forex controls in kenya. Kenya is not a dollarized economy.

There are no unregulated forex - and regulation is minimal - Capital requirement of 20M kshs, to have Know Your Customer(demand Identification) and for them to just report their deals of more than 10K usd to CBK - and nothing more than that.

Most people buy forex from their banks. There is no need to ever find yourself in Central Bank - and nobody has even run out of forex to import anything they want.

And there is no drama when it come to dollars or any foreign currency in kenya - You buy as much as you want and take them to Ghana - to help shore your CEDIS.

vaxx2:
You have started to loose your grip on inteligence and I will not further hesitate to call you an idiot henceforth .....
Your country operate both regulated and not regulated forex exchange... You cBK knows and it has started clamping on them...

Your cBk do not suffer the problem of demand and supply of their economies. The reason for that which causes this economic challenge is the lack of consistency in the inflows of foreign currencies. Once the importers, travellers (for Air-ticketing), Tenants (Rent payment) need the dollar especially, to enable them to transact businesses, the demand for the dollar will be high amd this is happening in Your country as it is a dollarised country just exactly like Ghana. people prefer dollar to shilling in kenya and yet it shilling still maintain false stability against the dollar. something is really wrong . it is either abnormally protected or borrowed money is used in regulations it. they are many non regulated agency who are ready to swap shilling to dollar without the control price. Your cBK is aware.

I am questioning your inteligence.... you know next to nothing on how forex exchange volatility affect exchange rate itself...

Learn to use hyperlinks.

Okay what is your understanding of exportable service sector - or you mean remittance from Ghanians abroad?

Kenya's Nairobi is the region financial capital. That bring a lot of dollars for starters.
https://www.ft.com/content/367907d0-d558-11e9-8d46-8def889b4137
So far this year, the country has attracted 54 projects totalling $2.9bn in announced investments according to fDi Markets, a Financial Times data service that tracks greenfield cross-border investment.

vaxx2:
Your exportable service service sector is even weak compare to Ghana. 5 billion dollar to 7.5 billion is a big dammn diffrence fool... Ghana reserve already hit 10 billion dollar ..

you can't have a strong currency with negative trade balance. unless you artificially maintained it . either thru massaging or loan to stabilized . you received very mimminal amount of hard currency....

rvp20182:
It helps our Central Bank Governor is former senior staffer at the IMF so he understands when junior economist send to kenya tries their monkey business. In any case when is KSHs devaluing?- it been nearly two years since IMF claimed it was overvalued?

Yes kenya has Africa highest trade deficit of 11B dollars...but trade is not only way to get dollars. When you have an well-diversified sophisticated economy like kenya - you do not need to export Gold or Oil to earn Forex. We earn lots of Forex from 'exportable' services sectors.

We have very healthy forex reserves - playing around 6 months of import bill - 9B dollars - way above the recommended 4 months cover.

We even do more on forex exportable service than you .... we are currently doing over 7.5 billion dollar against your weak 5 billion dollar .... we have boost our reserve above 10 billion dollar and we are making sure not all goods that can have effect on forex exchange are bought in dollars . that is why we are trying to be independent here . we have reduce many importation and we are still doing more...

Your weak current service export does not mean that the excess of value in terms of export is made available to kenya . The excess in value of export may be for interest payments for loans contracted or bonds issued or the Chinese loan you borrowed so you can only stabilized it with another loan from elsewhere.


so what your country is doing is debt to debt which will soon exposed you...

rvp20182:
Learn to use hyperlinks.

Okay what is your understanding of exportable service sector - or you mean remittance from Ghanians abroad?

Kenya's Nairobi is the region financial capital. That bring a lot of dollars for starters.

Your exportable service is all human related service sector you are doing in kenya that attract forex earning . from the airport to your sea port. we are doing well above you. go and confirm it. we do more than 7.5 billion dollar ...


Your lots of dollars aren't all going into your pulse, some are going into service of loans and payment of Chinese debt. so the left over can't stabilized your currency .


I know you understand the current foreign investment coming in to Ghana. you are not nearer

I am not sure where you are getting the data about exportable services. Ghana problems mirrors Nigeria - Zambia, Angola, name any africa country dependent on commodities.

If today you wake up - Aluminum prices are down by 30%, Oil down by 30%, Bauxite by 30%, Cocoa by 30% - Your country forex will be whipped out in a few days. You currency will depreciate so fast - and IMF will come for 17th rescue mission.

The reason why Kenya sits comfortably without any worry in life is because we have a VERY WELL DIVERSIFIED ECONOMY with very STRONG DOMESTIC ECONOMY.

We will only worry if we go into a civil war or a huge disaster.

vaxx2:
We even do more on forex exportable service than you .... we are currently doing over 7.5 billion dollar against your weak 5 billion dollar .... we have boost our reserve above 10 billion dollar and we are making sure not all goods that can have effect on forex exchange are bought in dollars . that is why we are trying to be independent here . we have reduce many importation and we are still doing more...

Your weak current service export does not mean that the excess of value in terms of export is made available to kenya . The excess in value of export may be for interest payments for loans contracted or bonds issued or the Chinese loan you borrowed so you can only stabilized it with another loan from elsewhere.


so what your country is doing is debt to debt which will soon exposed you...

rvp20182:
Check the source of your data again. There are no forex controls in kenya. Kenya is not a dollarized economy.

There are no unregulated forex - and regulation is minimal - Capital requirement of 20M kshs, to have Know Your Customer(demand Identification) and for them to just report their deals of more than 10K usd to CBK - and nothing more than that.

Most people buy forex from their banks. There is no need to ever find yourself in Central Bank - and nobody has even run out of forex to import anything they want.

And there is no drama when it come to dollars or any foreign currency in kenya - You buy as much as you want and take them to Ghana - to help shore your CEDIS.

Every articule out there suggest your bank has placed warning and ready to arrest unregulated forex exchange trader. which suggest they operate and if we should go by your corruption index , many unhiding forex swapping is taking place

You're just confused fellow typing nonsense. Your airport and seaport; like you seriously want to compare yourself with Kenya?

Kenya debt market is mostly local debt - we are careful with external debt because of exogenous currency risk - so Kenya might have 60B dollars debt - but about 35 of that is owed to kenyans - and are denominated by KShs. CBK can just print Kshs and pay that off. The 25B dollars is external debt - about 1/3 of that 25B dollars is public guarantee to gov parastals - we never have to repay unless they go under. So that leaves us with about 15B dollars of debt - split btw commercial and concessionary loans - all mostly with long tenures...maturing in 50yrs.

In short - we don't have any debt repayment problem - monthly our total debt repayment comes to about 35-40B Kshs - and we collect about 120B d from taxes - we also borrow about 34-50 billion - so in short we have no problem at all.

Ghana has to start attracting investment outside minerals and natural resources...and we can talk about you having a MODERN ECONOMY.

Look at even low hanging fruit like ICT - NOTHING IS HAPPENING IN GHANA - LAGOS is doing great - so is Nairobi.

vaxx2:
Your exportable service is all human related service sector you are doing in kenya that attract forex earning . from the airport to your sea port. we are doing well above you. go and confirm it. we do more than 7.5 billion dollar ...


Your lots of dollars aren't all going into your pulse, some are going into service of loans and payment of Chinese debt. so the left over can't stabilized your currency .


I know you understand the current foreign investment coming in to Ghana. you are not nearer

rvp20182:
I am not sure where you are getting the data about exportable services. Ghana problems mirrors Nigeria - Zambia, Angola, name any africa country dependent on commodities.

If today you wake up - Aluminum prices are down by 30%, Oil down by 30%, Bauxite by 30%, Cocoa by 30% - Your country forex will be whipped out in a few days. You currency will depreciate so fast - and IMF will come for 17th rescue mission.

The reason why Kenya sits comfortably without any worry in life is because we have a VERY WELL DIVERSIFIED ECONOMY with very STRONG DOMESTIC ECONOMY.

We will only worry if we go into a civil war or a huge disaster.

There is clear report on what Ghana make in forex service earning ? go CHECK on world export , we are doing way above you and that is 7.5 billion dollar . don't hide under that to promote your ignorance...

You also have the same fundamental, you are not an industrialized state. A very agrarian economy cannot stabilized on weak demand. Your tea market alone can sell you off, if it weaken above the current threshold...

gallivant:


Can someone please translate what this degenerate is trying to convey?

If u re very smart enough getting the signal don't ask question beat the drum along.

Dude these are ONLINE FOREX "dealers". They are conmen who lied to kenyans to open Online forex account so they can be trading forex. These are Yahoo boys of Kenya.

‘’The purpose of this notice is to warn members of the public against dealing with unlicenced and unregulated online forex dealers. They should only deal with genuine and licenced financial institutions and entities,’’ CBK statement read.

vaxx2:
Every articule out there suggest your bank has placed warning and ready to arrest unregulated forex exchange trader. which suggest they operate and if we should go by your corruption index , many unhiding forex swapping is taking place

surplusk:


If u re very smart enough getting the signal don't ask question beat the drum along.

If only you could articulate yourself in a soberly manner, you would make life a lot easier for many trying to understand your concerns.

Provide a link and we can have a fruitful conversation. Yes Ghana export tonnes of minerals - heck the country name is GOLD COAST - and kenya doesn't - but there is no denying that kenya is a sophisticated economy for it's size.

We have survived for what 60yrs with negative trade deficit - it's a non issue. Ghana has called IMF 16 times every time commodity prices have collapsed in the world market. You admitted your economy is still largely primitive, informal and black market.

We know where to get the forex to bridge the 11B dollar deficit. KQ for example bring forex from Ghana to Kenya. Kenya companies all over East, Central and South Africa bring forex. The fact that Kenya is seen as safe and stable haven - bring lots of forex from the region. We also know lots of Africa operations by MNC are running of Nairobi - they ship forex to Kenya.

vaxx2:
There is clear report on what Ghana make in forex service earning ? go CHECK on world export , we are doing way above you and thay is 7.5 billion dollar . don't hide under that to promote your ignorance...

You also have the same fundamental, you are not industrialized state. A very agrarian economy cannot stabilized on weak demand. Your tea market alone can sell you off, if it weaken above the current threshold...

rvp20182:
You're just confused fellow typing nonsense. Your airport and seaport; like you seriously want to compare yourself with Kenya?

Kenya debt market is mostly local debt - we are careful with external debt because of exogenous currency risk - so Kenya might have 60B dollars debt - but about 35 of that is owed to kenyans - and are denominated by KShs. CBK can just print Kshs and pay that off. The 25B dollars is external debt - about 1/3 of that 25B dollars is public guarantee to gov parastals - we never have to repay unless they go under. So that leaves us with about 15B dollars of debt - split btw commercial and concessionary loans - all mostly with long tenures...maturing in 50yrs.

In short - we don't have any debt repayment problem - monthly our total debt repayment comes to about 35-40B Kshs - and we collect about 120B dollars from taxes - we also borrow about 34-50 billion - so in short we have no problem at all.

Ghana has to start attracting investment outside minerals and natural resources...and we can talk about you having a MODERN ECONOMY.

Look at even low hanging fruit like ICT - NOTHING IS HAPPENING IN GHANA - LAGOS is doing great - so is Nairobi.

i only educate you in what exportable service related activities entails.... Your current external debt with China is an example as you keep making lost on the SGR.........

Your country’s public debt compared with its national income. is alarming, with a known population of 53 million, it implying that every Kenyan owes above 1000 dollars

You debt is becoming Unsustainable. which is very deadly Reason for your poor social programmes because huge portions of government revenue are taken away from essential services and used instead to service debt.

You can't pay with your teeth , you have to make a lot of revenue to automate that. never compare Nairobi to lagos ever again in your wet dreams. you are stupid doing so. is it because I by pass You doing so.

rvp20182:
Provide a link and we can have a fruitful conversation. Yes Ghana export tonnes of minerals - heck the country name is GOLD COAST - and kenya doesn't - but there is no denying that kenya is a sophisticated economy for it's size.

We have survived for what 60yrs with negative trade deficit - it's a non issue. Ghana has called IMF 16 times every time commodity prices have collapsed in the world market. You admitted your economy is still largely primitive, informal and black market.

We know where to get the forex to bridge the 11B dollar deficit. KQ for example bring forex from Ghana to Kenya. Kenya companies all over East, Central and South Africa bring forex. The fact that Kenya is seen as safe and stable haven - bring lots of forex from the region. We also know lots of Africa operations by MNC are running of Nairobi - they ship forex to Kenya.

You keep repeating this imf called as anything harmful. every deal with IMF has a public knolwedge. the law governing on servicing public debt are well regulated by the goverment....what becomes more suspicious is a debt trap policy with China whose information regarding defaultment are not known...

Even without our gold and oil we we still be doing better above you ... we build our dam which has lasted over 50 years with the gold money , and it is regarded as the largest man made dam in the world by surface....

Your unknown forex earning which IMF was blocked to unearth did not exist anywhere except your head. your negative trade balance suggest you are not doing well. Every country with a strong currency has a profit trade balance except that of kenya ....most of kenya companies aborad have a double tax taxation with their host country, they may not be necessarily sending huge cash flow back home apart from internal income .....


when it comes to foreing direct investment, Ghana is doing far well above you and it is not limited to mining and oil. our cocoa industry is a testament......




go CHECK on the export service on world export . it is not a rocket. science. ...

I see you're repeating debt propaganda on SGR & China - actually regurgiating western propaganda against fast emerging China.

Let me help for then 10th time understand our SGR loan.

We borrowed about 4.5-5B dollars from China to build SGR from Mombasa to Nairobi and now to Naivasha - including rolling stock, two dry ports (Nairobi, Naivasha) in 2014. Unlike Nigeria and other laggards...we completed the 500-600kms railway in record 3yrs.

Before we borrowed the loan - we planned to raise 15% of the total project cost - because China normally do not finance land acquisition and such - so we started collecting Railway Development Levy as early as 2010. That RDL annually collects now about 30B kshs (300M dollars) - that is more than enough to pay China.

What are our loan terms with China (Exim bank of China) - half the loan is commercial (2% above LIBOR) and half the loan is concessionary (nearly zero interest maturing in 20yrs). We also got 5yr grace period for commercial loan and 7yr grace period for concessional loan. The idea is the railway in initial years will start slowly - and won't break even the first 7-10 yrs.And we also put in a huge insurance with Chinese in case of non-repayment.

Now according to projections we had with Chinese - the railway would no break even - for first nearly 10yrs - and yet 3yrs later - our SGR is approaching break point. It already has carried 3.5m passengers and 5 million metric tonnes - in the first 2-3 yrs of operations. We are running 14 trains every day both ways - about 28 cargo trains daily.

Now compare say to Ethiopia - that is still running 1 or 2 trains - and has asked China for loan extensions.

So before we ever come to defaulting in SGR
1) SGR will break even - and hopefully pay for itself
2) Railway Dev Levy - will pay for it -1.5% (now increased to 2%) of all imports (except raw materials) - will be use to pay for it.
3) We will ask Chinese to extend the loan terms
4) Kenya Port Authority (with annual revenues trending towards 1B dollars soon) - will pay the Kenya Railways(Not china) - if they don't have cargo.
5) Treasury will uses our taxes to repay China.
6) Insurance will pay for it. We paid a huge commission to SinoSure.
7) We will default - in year 3030.

vaxx2:
i only educate you in what exportable service related activities entails.... Your current external debt with China is an example as you keep making lost on the SGR.........

Your country’s public debt compared with its national income. is alarming, with a known population of 53 million, it implying that every Kenyan owes above 1000 dollars

You debt is becoming Unsustainabl. which is very dealdly Reason for your poor social programmes because huge portions of government revenue are taken away from essential services and used instead to service debt.

You can't pay with your teeth , you have to make a lot of revenue to automate that. never compare Nairobi to lagos ever again in your wet dreams. you are stupid doing so. is it because I by pass You doing so.

rvp20182:
Dude these are ONLINE FOREX "dealers". They are conmen who lied to kenyans to open Online forex account so they can be trading forex. These are Yahoo boys of Kenya.

‘’The purpose of this notice is to warn members of the public against dealing with unlicenced and unregulated online forex dealers. They should only deal with genuine and licenced financial institutions and entities,’’ CBK statement read.

so what are you suggesting? That the cBK have flushed them out or they don't exist anymore..... and apart from that , many indication still suggest you have unregulated traditional forex exchange...

Don't be stupid bro. go learn....

kenyans can't simply afford to school abroad



Nigeria ranks 11th highest in number of students in United States NEWS
Published 6 hours ago on November 19, 2019
By Correspondents 
RELATED TOPICS: Nigeria has emerged first among African
countries and eleventh, worldwide in terms
leading source of international students studying in the United States.
Latest report released by Open Doors, shows that the number of international students in the United States rose to an all‐time high in the 2018/19 academic year, the fourth consecutive year with more than one million international students.
The total number of international students, 1,095,299, is a 0.05 per cent increase over last year, according to the 2019 Open Doors Report on International Educational Exchange.
The new report indicates there was a 5.8 per cent increase in the number of students from Nigeria who are currently studying in the U.S. This percentage represents a total of 13,423 Nigerian students studying in the U.S. in the 2018/2019 academic session. This number also represents 33 per cent of the overall African students in the United States.
Nigerians are enrolled in more than 1,000 institutions in 51 states and territories in the United States, out of which 18 per cent are studying in Texas. Nigerian students using EducationUSA services recorded $16million in scholarships and financial aid awarded to newly admitted students for the 2019 academic year.
Open Doors 2019, released yesterday by the Institute of International Education (IIE) and the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, highlights the continued competitiveness of the U.S. higher education sector as a destination of choice for international students and the growing interest in international educational exchange among U.S. students. The release of the new Open Doors data marks the celebration of International Education Week, a joint initiative of the U.S. Department of State and the U.S. Department of Education to prepare Americans for a global environment and attract future leaders from other countries to study, learn, and exchange experiences in the United States.
The Open Doors report is published annually by the Institute of International Education in partnership with the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs.

rvp20182:
I see you're repeating debt propaganda on SGR & China - actually regurgiating western propaganda against fast emerging China.

Let me help for then 10th time understand our SGR loan.

We borrowed about 4.5-5B dollars from China to build SGR from Mombasa to Nairobi and now to Naivasha - including rolling stock, two dry ports (Nairobi, Naivasha) in 2014. Unlike Nigeria and other laggards...we completed the 500-600kms railway in record 3yrs.

Before we borrowed the loan - we planned to raise 15% of the total project cost - because China normally do not finance land acquisition and such - so we started collecting Railway Development Levy as early as 2010. That RDL annually collects now about 30B kshs (300M dollars) - that is more than enough to pay China.

What are our loan terms with China (Exim bank of China) - half the loan is commercial (2% above LIBOR) and half the loan is concessionary (nearly zero interest maturing in 20yrs). We also got 5yr grace period for commercial loan and 7yr grace period for concessional loan. The idea is the railway in initial years will start slowly - and won't break even the first 7-10 yrs.And we also put in a huge insurance with Chinese in case of non-repayment.

Now according to projections we had with Chinese - the railway would no break even - for first nearly 10yrs - and yet 3yrs later - our SGR is approaching break point. It already has carried 3.5m passengers and 5 million metric tonnes - in the first 2-3 yrs of operations. We are running 14 trains every day.

Now compare say to Ethiopia - that is still running 1 or 2 trains - and has asked China for loan extensions.

So before we ever come to defaulting in SGR
1) SGR will break even - and hopefully pay for itself
2) Railway Dev Levy - will pay for it -1.5% (now increase to 2%) of all imports (except raw materials)
3) We will ask Chinese to extend the loan terms
4) Insurance will pay for it.
5) We will default - in year 3030.

I think you have drop of your coffee tea running off your brain? when it comes to your Chinese loan , you called Bretton wood institution propangadist, when it comes to transparency, you called China communism an outdated model which is not good for capitalist nation. then you blame TZ and kwame inkrumah ...

You talk with two mouth and this has exposed you as irresponsible idiot. for the fact that China refuse to loan you further exposed your country as debt trap nation.

rvp20182:
I see you're repeating debt propaganda on SGR & China - actually regurgiating western propaganda against fast emerging China.

Let me help for then 10th time understand our SGR loan.

We borrowed about 4.5-5B dollars from China to build SGR from Mombasa to Nairobi and now to Naivasha - including rolling stock, two dry ports (Nairobi, Naivasha) in 2014. Unlike Nigeria and other laggards...we completed the 500-600kms railway in record 3yrs.

Before we borrowed the loan - we planned to raise 15% of the total project cost - because China normally do not finance land acquisition and such - so we started collecting Railway Development Levy as early as 2010. That RDL annually collects now about 30B kshs (300M dollars) - that is more than enough to pay China.

What are our loan terms with China (Exim bank of China) - half the loan is commercial (2% above LIBOR) and half the loan is concessionary (nearly zero interest maturing in 20yrs). We also got 5yr grace period for commercial loan and 7yr grace period for concessional loan. The idea is the railway in initial years will start slowly - and won't break even the first 7-10 yrs.And we also put in a huge insurance with Chinese in case of non-repayment.

Now according to projections we had with Chinese - the railway would no break even - for first nearly 10yrs - and yet 3yrs later - our SGR is approaching break point. It already has carried 3.5m passengers and 5 million metric tonnes - in the first 2-3 yrs of operations. We are running 14 trains every day.

Now compare say to Ethiopia - that is still running 1 or 2 trains - and has asked China for loan extensions.

So before we ever come to defaulting in SGR
1) SGR will break even - and hopefully pay for itself
2) Railway Dev Levy - will pay for it -1.5% (now increase to 2%) of all imports (except raw materials)
3) We will ask Chinese to extend the loan terms
4) KPA (with annual revenues trending towards 1B dollars soon) - will pay the Kenya Railways(Not china) - if they don't have cargo.
5) Treasury will uses our taxes to repay China.
6) Insurance will pay for it. We paid a huge commission to SinoSure.
7) We will default - in year 3030.

Oh shut you idiot..You laggard zoo can't speak to about infastructure ....Nigeria has spent 3 times what you've spent in rail and she has got rails in operation than your zoo will ever dream of....your age is running at lost and can barely perform cargo function...

rvp20182:
Forex control and regulation are different. Regulating forex beaureu doesn't mean controlling them. You can buy forex from the counter of any bank in Kenya. Banks, forex shops and anyone with dollars can quote any rate they want. Our central bank only intervene to smoothen things..by buying or selling forexs to open market....but when Kshs is getting serious hits..they let it slid. That is how Kshs has slid from 65 - to 75 to 85 and to 100kshs - and even 107shs. When fundamentals of Kshs are strong it climbs up. It has done this - rising to 80 then back down to 65.

We had forex controls in 1990s - and like Nigeria - or I think Ghana - you needed to apply to Central Bank for forex. Kenyan businessmen, importers or anyone who want forex doesn't even know where CBK offices are...and will never need to go there. Just make a call to you banker, agree on forex rate, and change your money.

All CBK does is to regulate - so banks or forex report all forex deals - to ensure money laundering and illicit money - are not finding their way in.

You're up against the Katanka mindset -a mind that can only conceptualize in the simplest most rigid format. The nigga can't differentiate between online forex dealer controls and a free floating shilling yet he wants to lecture you with his pretend knowledge!