₦airaland Forum

apache22b:
Bad business for that Dead Rat Seller Guy

Agboriotejoye:
Who mentioned party? I mentioned an individual called buhari vis a vis recession. Obj ruled this country thrice just like buhari has. Not once was there a need for economic analysis of recession during his tenures. But once buhari comes onboard, professors of recession will be in high demand. The reason for that is what we should look at.

kikero:
1.Buhari did not cause this current recession or the one that happened on his watch in 1983-5

2.The recession that happened under Buhari in 1983-5 started when oil prices fell in 1982...which even prompted Shagari to bring in austerity programmes by 1983.

3.Likewise the recession under this current admin started in April 2014...when oil prices collapsed due to the Saudis trying to outproduce American shale oil producers. By January 2015...NOI was warning that whoever won the election, there would be economic crisis.

4.The truth is, our economy has been vulnerable since independence. The economy depends on revenues from whatever raw materials we sell , whose prices we do not control. In the 1960's it was agricultural produce. By the 1980's, oil was taking over.

5.Where Buhari and others make mistakes is that they spend too much controlling prices on vital sectors like petrol and power. This limits the amount of investment that can be poured into both sectors, leading to job lossess and financial losses...especially from subsides which is money down a bottomless pit.

6.Because of our large population, we need oil at $139 per barrel and above, since 2017, up from $120 per barrel since 2012....to run a balanced budget.(despite our cost of production being below 30 dollars). Since 2010...we haven't had oil prices that high. That's why we are taking debts via borrowing...the money we are earning is not enough and has never been enough for our needs.

Oil is at $25. We need it at $140. We are losing at least $115 now per barrel of oil sold. (More information on my figures here)

Also due to the low oil prices, we are losing an average of $35.76million or N13.1 billion per day in accruable revenue

7. The way froward eventually...remove subsides , allow power and petrol to be run at a profit....which brings in investment and jobs. We did this for the GSM sector. Why can't we do this for power, petrol?? To long term help us transition into a producer economy...which produces goods whose prices we can control.

Modified

To anyone who thinks I am defending the current administration, see my points 5 and 7 and reflect on them. Also look at point number 6 and them make the assumption....we need to change our economic paradigm.

There is nothing to defend about this APC government. It is obvious they have failed. However, my problem with most critics of this administration is that they criticse the effects...they don't think about the cause of the effects. If we can think about the cause of the effects, we may be on the way out of this economic crisis.

The problem is, the solution involves some hard decisions. Removing subsides...and so on. The problem also is, APC, like PDP exisits to share the national cake, not to think about how the cake is baked, or how we assemble the ingredients.

kikero:
1.Buhari did not cause this current recession or the one that happened on his watch in 1983-5

2.The recession that happened under Buhari in 1983-5 started when oil prices fell in 1982...which even prompted Shagari to bring in austerity programmes by 1983.

3.Likewise the recession under this current admin started in April 2014...when oil prices collapsed due to the Saudis trying to outproduce American shale oil producers. By January 2015...NOI was warning that whoever won the election, there would be economic crisis.

4.The truth is, our economy has been vulnerable since independence. The economy depends on revenues from whatever raw materials we sell , whose prices we do not control. In the 1960's it was agricultural produce. By the 1980's, oil was taking over.

5.Where Buhari and others make mistakes is that they spend too much controlling prices on vital sectors like petrol and power. This limits the amount of investment that can be poured into both sectors, leading to job lossess and financial losses...especially from subsides which is money down a bottomless pit.

6.Because of our large population, we need oil at $139 per barrel and above, since 2017, up from $120 per barrel since 2012....to run a balanced budget.(despite our cost of production being below 30 dollars). Since 2010...we haven't had oil prices that high. That's why we are taking debts via borrowing...the money we are earning is not enough and has never been enough for our needs.

Oil is at $25. We need it at $140. We are losing at least $115 now per barrel of oil sold. (More information on my figures here)

Also due to the low oil prices, we are losing an average of $35.76million or N13.1 billion per day in accruable revenue

7. The way froward eventually...remove subsides , allow power and petrol to be run at a profit....which brings in investment and jobs. We did this for the GSM sector. Why can't we do this for power, petrol?? To long term help us transition into a producer economy...which produces goods whose prices we can control.

Modified

To anyone who thinks I am defending the current administration, see my points 5 and 7 and reflect on them. Also look at point number 6 and them make the assumption....we need to change our economic paradigm.

There is nothing to defend about this APC government. It is obvious they have failed. However, my problem with most critics of this administration is that they criticse the effects...they don't think about the cause of the effects. If we can think about the cause of the effects, we may be on the way out of this economic crisis.

The problem is, the solution involves some hard decisions. Removing subsides...and so on. The problem also is, APC, like PDP exisits to share the national cake, not to think about how the cake is baked, or how we assemble the ingredients.

Agboriotejoye:
More excuses. The root of it all is that one man alone is synonymous with 1984, 2016 and 2020. That is an incontrovertible fast starring us in the face. Your wife's soup is sour, you say it's the weather. Na only her pot weather affect? It calls for study why recession always comes with Buhari. There's a lot of lesson to learn there.

kikero:
1.Buhari did not cause this current recession or the one that happened on his watch in 1983-5

2.The recession that happened under Buhari in 1983-5 started when oil prices fell in 1982...which even prompted Shagari to bring in austerity programmes by 1983.

3.Likewise the recession under this current admin started in April 2014...when oil prices collapsed due to the Saudis trying to outproduce American shale oil producers. By January 2015...NOI was warning that whoever won the election, there would be economic crisis.

4.The truth is, our economy has been vulnerable since independence. The economy depends on revenues from whatever raw materials we sell , whose prices we do not control. In the 1960's it was agricultural produce. By the 1980's, oil was taking over.

5.Where Buhari and others make mistakes is that they spend too much controlling prices on vital sectors like petrol and power. This limits the amount of investment that can be poured into both sectors, leading to job lossess and financial losses...especially from subsides which is money down a bottomless pit.

6.Because of our large population, we need oil at $139 per barrel and above, since 2017, up from $120 per barrel since 2012....to run a balanced budget.(despite our cost of production being below 30 dollars). Since 2010...we haven't had oil prices that high. That's why we are taking debts via borrowing...the money we are earning is not enough and has never been enough for our needs.

Oil is at $25. We need it at $140. We are losing at least $115 now per barrel of oil sold. (More information on my figures here)

Also due to the low oil prices, we are losing an average of $35.76million or N13.1 billion per day in accruable revenue

7. The way froward eventually...remove subsides , allow power and petrol to be run at a profit....which brings in investment and jobs. We did this for the GSM sector. Why can't we do this for power, petrol?? To long term help us transition into a producer economy...which produces goods whose prices we can control.

Modified

To anyone who thinks I am defending the current administration, see my points 5 and 7 and reflect on them. Also look at point number 6 and them make the assumption....we need to change our economic paradigm.

There is nothing to defend about this APC government. It is obvious they have failed. However, my problem with most critics of this administration is that they criticse the effects...they don't think about the cause of the effects. If we can think about the cause of the effects, we may be on the way out of this economic crisis.

The problem is, the solution involves some hard decisions. Removing subsides...and so on. The problem also is, APC, like PDP exisits to share the national cake, not to think about how the cake is baked, or how we assemble the ingredients.

kikero:
[s]1.Buhari did not cause this current recession or the one that happened on his watch in 1983-5

2.The recession that happened under Buhari in 1983-5 started when oil prices fell in 1982...which even prompted Shagari to bring in austerity programmes by 1983.

3.Likewise the recession under this current admin started in April 2014...when oil prices collapsed due to the Saudis trying to outproduce American shale oil producers. By January 2015...NOI was warning that whoever won the election, there would be economic crisis.

4.The truth is, our economy has been vulnerable since independence. The economy depends on revenues from whatever raw materials we sell , whose prices we do not control. In the 1960's it was agricultural produce. By the 1980's, oil was taking over.

5.Where Buhari and others make mistakes is that they spend too much controlling prices on vital sectors like petrol and power. This limits the amount of investment that can be poured into both sectors, leading to job lossess and financial losses...especially from subsides which is money down a bottomless pit.

6.Because of our large population, we need oil at $139 per barrel and above, since 2017, up from $120 per barrel since 2012....to run a balanced budget.(despite our cost of production being below 30 dollars). Since 2010...we haven't had oil prices that high. That's why we are taking debts via borrowing...the money we are earning is not enough and has never been enough for our needs.

Oil is at $25. We need it at $140. We are losing at least $115 now per barrel of oil sold. (More information on my figures here)

Also due to the low oil prices, we are losing an average of $35.76million or N13.1 billion per day in accruable revenue

7. The way froward eventually...remove subsides , allow power and petrol to be run at a profit....which brings in investment and jobs. We did this for the GSM sector. Why can't we do this for power, petrol?? To long term help us transition into a producer economy...which produces goods whose prices we can control.

Modified

To anyone who thinks I am defending the current administration, see my points 5 and 7 and reflect on them. Also look at point number 6 and them make the assumption....we need to change our economic paradigm.

There is nothing to defend about this APC government. It is obvious they have failed. However, my problem with most critics of this administration is that they criticse the effects...they don't think about the cause of the effects. If we can think about the cause of the effects, we may be on the way out of this economic crisis.

The problem is, the solution involves some hard decisions. Removing subsides...and so on. The problem also is, APC, like PDP exisits to share the national cake, not to think about how the cake is baked, or how we assemble the ingredients.[/s]

aribs:
Agreed! Very valid points . However the question of the subsidy should be directed also to the Nigerian people, trade unions, and Organized Private Sector. Shall we continue in this subsidy foolishness so that poverty may abound? As it is , any government which attempts a removal of this subsidy will face near insurrection from " civil society groups " and labor. We cant eat our cake and have it. Realism is needed

thugmanwiz:
As a gee boy now this is one is good news for me���

chozzy:
https://nairametrics.com/2020/03/27/naira-depreciates-to-n410-per-dollar-as-local-currency-weakens/

DModeCntStopMe:
.....

kikero:
Obj had economic issues during term 1 (the argument then was that we should vote for him because he had to repeat) but during term 2...oil prices started to rise again, he made the wise decision not to bring in control on prices on the GSM sector...which meant job expansions...and he also got a good deal on our debts (67% forgiven, the rest paid off)

And Obj's military rule of 1976-79 was smack dab in the middle of the oil boom years of the 1970's

Even then, our economy is vulnerable because it is reliant on the price of oil(my ultimate point) , and if oil prices were high under Buhari now, I would still be making the same criticism by the way.

It's Buhari's hardluck that he came into power when oil prices had collapsed for a year and running both times (1983 DEC, and 2015 May.). The problem i have with him is that he had the tools to get us out of the oil induced recession...and did not use them at all.

6digitscomrade:
more like saying someone has always been unfortunate.. perhaps there are 3 culprits here ..fate,destiny or karma or all of the above..

kikero:
1.Buhari did not cause this current recession or the one that happened on his watch in 1983-5

2.The recession that happened under Buhari in 1983-5 started when oil prices fell in 1982...which even prompted Shagari to bring in austerity programmes by 1983.

3.Likewise the recession under this current admin started in April 2014...when oil prices collapsed due to the Saudis trying to outproduce American shale oil producers. By January 2015...NOI was warning that whoever won the election, there would be economic crisis.

4.The truth is, our economy has been vulnerable since independence. The economy depends on revenues from whatever raw materials we sell , whose prices we do not control. In the 1960's it was agricultural produce. By the 1980's, oil was taking over.

5.Where Buhari and others make mistakes is that they spend too much controlling prices on vital sectors like petrol and power. This limits the amount of investment that can be poured into both sectors, leading to job lossess and financial losses...especially from subsides which is money down a bottomless pit.

6.Because of our large population, we need oil at $139 per barrel and above, since 2017, up from $120 per barrel since 2012....to run a balanced budget.(despite our cost of production being below 30 dollars). Since 2010...we haven't had oil prices that high. That's why we are taking debts via borrowing...the money we are earning is not enough and has never been enough for our needs.

Oil is at $25. We need it at $140. We are losing at least $115 now per barrel of oil sold. (More information on my figures here)

Also due to the low oil prices, we are losing an average of $35.76million or N13.1 billion per day in accruable revenue

7. The way froward eventually...remove subsides , allow power and petrol to be run at a profit....which brings in investment and jobs. We did this for the GSM sector. Why can't we do this for power, petrol?? To long term help us transition into a producer economy...which produces goods whose prices we can control.

Modified

To anyone who thinks I am defending the current administration, see my points 5 and 7 and reflect on them. Also look at point number 6 and them make the assumption....we need to change our economic paradigm.

There is nothing to defend about this APC government. It is obvious they have failed. However, my problem with most critics of this administration is that they criticse the effects...they don't think about the cause of the effects. If we can think about the cause of the effects, we may be on the way out of this economic crisis.

The problem is, the solution involves some hard decisions. Removing subsides...and so on. The problem also is, APC, like PDP exisits to share the national cake, not to think about how the cake is baked, or how we assemble the ingredients.

Seetto:
So if buhari was not the president, they wouldn't have been Corona virus or the price of crude wouldn't have fallen to 28$ per barrel in 2015, guy you are not toddler, Nigeria is in big shiit, the country is a shadow of itself, our leaders failed us, look at pdp regime, they have all it takes to improve the economy, but stealing and looting becomes order of the day, now crude is useless where do we start from with all these challenges the country is facing.

Agboriotejoye:
OBJ had economic issues in term 1 but no recession true or false? Every baby born in 1999 got to find out there's something called recession in 2016.

Like I told you, the issue is recession not choices and policies and buhari has overseen it now. That's what we should look at not whether oil price is high or low.

The Dutch disease occurs when the traditional export (tradable goods) sector is crowded out by the booming export sector and the non-tradable goods sector. The lagging traditional tradable goods sector may include cocoa, palm produce, cotton, rubber, coal, copper, textiles and some manufactured goods while the booming export sector may be crude oil, coffee, gold, etc. The non-tradable (non-export) goods sector covers all those goods that are produced for domestic consumption only, e.g. staple food items, clothing, building materials, locally-assembled cars. Where crude oil (and gas) is the booming export sector, the non-oil export sector may be crowded out by the oil sector and the non-tradable goods sector of the economy. This can happen when the oil revenue windfall increases domestic demand for non-tradable goods and pushes up domestic prices leading to an appreciation of the real exchange rate which in turn reduces the competitiveness of the non-oil export sector. This will in turn lead to a reduction in non-oil exports in both quantum and value terms. The oil windfall may also lead to movement of the factors of production in the economy. For instance, capital and labor (and land) may shift from the non-oil export sector to the oil sector (in order to maintain or increase reserves and production) and the non-tradable goods sector (to take advantage of the growing domestic demand). This explains why the increase in oil prices and the subsequent oil revenue windfall in many oil-exporting countries have tended to depress their non-oil export sector while at the same time generating a boom in both the oil and the non-tradable goods sectors. With capital and labor shifting from the non-oil export sector to the oil-sector and non-traded goods sector, firms in the non-oil export sector are forced to either close down or reduce their scale of operation. The boom in the oil and non-traded goods sector increases the demand for imported goods. This may not be a problem in the short-term so long as the country has enough foreign exchange to pay for the imports. The depression in the non-oil export sector and the boom in the other two sectors have medium to long term implications for the economy because the oil windfall will not be permanent given the volatility, unpredictability and exhaustibility of crude oil. For instance, if there is a decline in oil prices and oil revenue, the lagging and collapsing non-oil export sector will not be able to compensate for the drop in oil revenue while domestic demand for the non-traded goods and imports remain sticky. Consequently, the country will be forced to borrow from the international financial market to compensate for the decline in oil revenue. Over time, external debts will increase and so will the debt service obligations. Even when oil prices go up later and there is another round of oil windfall, it is difficult to correct the earlier damage or distortions created by the initial or previous oil windfall. In some cases, the oil exporting country may be forced to adopt some form of structural adjustment program (SAP) to correct such distortions or imbalances. Some of these SAPs are painful and may increase the prevalence, depth and severity of poverty.

(N.B In 1982 oil prices collapsed, by 1986, IBB put our economy on SAP .kikero's edit ends here)

In an extreme case, the Dutch Disease can lead to "Immiserising Growth" syndrome - a situation where increase in the output of exported commodity by a country leads to a deterioration of the country's welfare (Bhagwati, 1958). This happens when the effect of export-led growth on a country's terms of trade is strong enough to more than offset the direct benefits of growth. It is an extreme case of self-defeating growth. Although the theory of Immiserising Growth was not originally developed for oil-exporting countries, its tenets apply to many oil-exporting countries in the sense that despite the substantial increase in their export revenue, they have suffered significant decline in general welfare due largely to mismanagement of their oil revenue. Thus, the Dutch Disease syndrome confirms the assertion by a Spanish writer in the 16th Century that "the gratification of wealth is not found in mere possession or in lavish expenditure but in its wise application". Although the main manifestation of the Dutch disease syndrome in an oil exporting country is the decline or depression in the non-oil export sector, other "collateral" manifestations include appreciation of the real exchange rate at the onset, increase in corruption, increase in external debt and increase in poverty. However, an oil-exporting country must not suffer from the Dutch Disease. Furthermore, not all oil-exporting countries suffering from the disease have all "collateral" manifestations at the same time. Country experiences vary considerably depending on their political economy.

Khaleepha5681:
1.Buhari did not cause this current recession or the one that happened on his watch in 1983-5

2.The recession that happened under Buhari in 1983-5 started when oil prices fell in 1982...which even prompted Shagari to bring in austerity programmes by 1983.

3.Likewise the recession under this current admin started in April 2014...when oil prices collapsed due to the Saudis trying to outproduce American shale oil producers. By January 2015...NOI was warning that whoever won the election, there would be economic crisis.

4.The truth is, our economy has been vulnerable since independence. The economy depends on revenues from whatever raw materials we sell , whose prices we do not control. In the 1960's it was agricultural produce. By the 1980's, oil was taking over.




**********
**********
Was he born after election?
Was he not aware of all these probems before he said that he could lead,rule and make us great?
Since he know that Nigeria is this bad why should he take over and blame PDP

VaselineCrew:
Nigeria needs leadership now more than ever

We need intelligent leaders, with very high IQs and love for their country and states

Not leaders that will allocate cars to themselves, when other countries are scrambling to invent makeshift ventilators due to low supply

Not leaders that will abandon their own countries hospital for more than two months in London

God will definitely see all of us through these trying times, but let us not mock God by remaining foolish in our decisions.

Agboriotejoye:
There's no way to know because he is president. But we know others have been there before him in 1984 and after then till now and only he has brought recession thrice. Every student that fails has a reason for failing. But the fact is while he failed, others passed. He should bear the burden for his failure. The great depression occurred when FDR was president of US, but he got his people out and made sure it never happened again. How come recession keeps occurring when Buhari is in power? That's the multi million dollar question

princeade86:
But every country have its own problems na, even America. Why can't dollar be depreciating to naira.

Racoon:
Economic recession in full force.Brace for impact people.

drololaaof:
Weaked people the money changers who is going or buying abroad at this time. When nearly everywhere is locked down what do they exchanged . By this time the naira ought to be stable.

kikero:
1.Buhari did not cause this current recession or the one that happened on his watch in 1983-5

2.The recession that happened under Buhari in 1983-5 started when oil prices fell in 1982...which even prompted Shagari to bring in austerity programmes by 1983.

3.Likewise the recession under this current admin started in April 2014...when oil prices collapsed due to the Saudis trying to outproduce American shale oil producers. By January 2015...NOI was warning that whoever won the election, there would be economic crisis.

4.The truth is, our economy has been vulnerable since independence. The economy depends on revenues from whatever raw materials we sell , whose prices we do not control. In the 1960's it was agricultural produce. By the 1980's, oil was taking over.

5.Where Buhari and others make mistakes is that they spend too much controlling prices on vital sectors like petrol and power. This limits the amount of investment that can be poured into both sectors, leading to job lossess and financial losses...especially from subsides which is money down a bottomless pit.

6.Because of our large population, we need oil at $139 per barrel and above, since 2017, up from $120 per barrel since 2012....to run a balanced budget.(despite our cost of production being below 30 dollars). Since 2010...we haven't had oil prices that high. That's why we are taking debts via borrowing...the money we are earning is not enough and has never been enough for our needs.

Oil is at $25. We need it at $140. We are losing at least $115 now per barrel of oil sold. (More information on my figures here)

Also due to the low oil prices, we are losing an average of $35.76million or N13.1 billion per day in accruable revenue

7. The way froward eventually...remove subsides , allow power and petrol to be run at a profit....which brings in investment and jobs. We did this for the GSM sector. Why can't we do this for power, petrol?? To long term help us transition into a producer economy...which produces goods whose prices we can control.