Kuku talk say PDP 500 000, APC 0... Nonsense!!!

garfield1:
Factors that influence elections in nigeria still remain the same.we shall look at them one by one.

Finance:this will play a key role on Saturday.the economy is bad,hunger is pervasive and die hard supporters will surely collect money to vote against their favourites.it is a given.vote buying will be rife and unfortunately apc will out muscle obaseki here.

Federal might:the federal might which include security agents and even inec will come into play.it is clear the security forces will tilt towards pastor.there are allegations that the inec rec is an ex apc member.even obaseki said he will win if federal might is not deployed.
Popularity: both parties are evenly matched.obaseki's popularity is mostly at Benin metropolis while pastor is more rooted at the rural areas.
Collation centre:this is the most important part of the election.most rigging takes place at the collation centre.even gej attested to this.whoever controls the collation process will win.unfortunately, oshiomhole usually dominates collation centres.him and pastor has far more loyal men at polling and collation centres compared to obaseki..

It must be noted that for a ruling part to lose elections,one of two things usually happen.either an overwhelming majority of the masses bote against them or majority of the political actors gang up against them or both.the losses of apc in Adamawa and bauchi was because majority of the politicians across party divide gangup against the incumbent while the loss of apc in oyo,pdp In kwara and gombe was because an overwhelming majority of voters voted against them making it impossible to rig.

Oredo LGA: pdp 30,000 apc 15,000

Egor LGA; pdp 25000. Apc 15000

Ikpoba okha; pdp 25,000 apc 20000

Orhiomnwon LGA;pdp 10,000 apc 20,000

Uhumnwonde lg; pdp 7000 apc 15000

Ovia north east LGA:pdp 9000 apc 12000

Ovia south west lga: pdp ,12000 apc 18000

Esan central: pdp 15000 apc 10000

Esan central:pdp 13000 apc 10,000

Esan south east;pdp 10,000 apc 9000

Esan west: pdp 11000 apc 10,000

Igueben: pdp 8000 apc 10,000

Etsako west: pdp 14,000 apc 16000

Etsako west; pdp 13000 apc 19000

Etsako central:pdp 15000 apc 21000

Owan east:pdp 5000 apc 15000

Owan west: pdp 9000 apc 14000

Akoko edo:pdp 15,000 apc 30,000



Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Emmafantastic
Helinues
Favor
Unigrad
Flordflorez
Donphilohus
AWOL
Afroknight
Kyase
Caseless

Obaseki will win Uhunmwonde.
APC will not get half of those votes in Edo Central. The only local government Obaseki might not win in Edo South is orhionwon.

Kriss216:
godfatherism has no stay in Edo State. Edo is not Lagos.



God bless Edo
God bless Obaseki




Shame on Ambode!

lazy youth, you get brain at all? what concerns Ambode with Edo matter nah

garfield1:


Funny

I swear it’s funny

It’s funnier when people argue ignorantly.

Godfather indeed.

Nadaken:
let me tell you this, that election has their percularities, especially when it's a local election then you factor in the determinants.

So what worked in 20bc might not work today even though they may follow almost same thrend (this is where you getting it wrong).

The issue here is this current Edo election.

EDO CENTRAL

For Edo Central it is naturally a pdp zone, it has no candidate or deputy in ballot but it has benefitted from obaseki to an average esanman than oshomole.

Oshomole isn't having that incumbent factor that it uses to subdue this zone to milk something out, Apc is naturally a bad market here cum the fact that Alot of apc members who manage to be it's foot soldiers have joined pdp now.

Even if you would rig election you need collaborators, their are not even thugs in numbers to influence anything in Edo Central.

So the votes of the people would prevail with little to no restrictions here.


EDO NORTH

For Edo North this is an apc zone, it wasn't considered important untill oshomole came in, they have consistently sticked with him than any zone since ACN days.

This is oshomole backbone and they always cover him whenever he is about to be politically naked (the ward chairman that nailed him was because oshomole took things for granted).

Ordinarily the majority of people here are pro oshomole, they stand more for him when the heat is more, this is why he still has an apc senator in Edo.

This election their voices would be louder because it's more like a referendum, if oshomole losses political relevance they are also finished because Philip can't get the national power oshomole had to them.

This is oshomole political existence at stake

Oshomole has brought University, relevance, appointment, jobs, projects when he had the power.

So Philip can't stop that, Philip came into relevance politically because of oshomole here.

The people would vote apc overwhelming or aid the rigging by apc here because they still get to keep the same deputy Philip is fighting for (more like win win win for them to go apc).


EDO SOUTH.

This is battle ground, there is a reason oshomole choosed ize iyamu because he needs someone who is grassroot here to do half the job.

Apc never needed majority to win here, Bini is a polar zone of apc/pdp.

But a popular candidate with their willing personnels always make sure they get 60/40 50/50 here.

There can never be overwhelming victory by any party here because both are rooted.

Bini would be lackadaisical because either way they still rep governor, so this would make it easier for a rigging because there would be little to no resistance from the people

External forces can spin the direction here in terms of sharing lga 3 to 4

I hope you see the picture now

You tried with your analysis but let's hit the nail.

Numbers by Number Esan people are more than Etsako people who are the kids of Oshiomole. The large chunk of Etsako voters are mainly in Edo north, but I can tell you that 40% of Esan voters are in Edo south and Benin city to be precise.

Don't look at the result from 2012 and 2016 to judge APC in this Election. 2012 was when the whole of Edo supported Oshiomole. 2016 Oshiomole had to share 5k per voters on the feild that day with numerous rigging tactics to close the gap in Edo central. This time, the votes from Edo central will be one sided. Just watch and see. Oredo votes alone is about 100,000. If Obaseki can get 60-70% of that vote, he will win in Edo South.


The battle will be in Edo north. Can Shuaibu tipp the scale over there. He has a lot to prove and this battle means so much to him.


Aside rigging this election
Obaseki stands a better chance of winning. It won't be a landslide, but he will emerge victorious.


What I don't understand is why is tinubu doing video for Edo elections

garfield1:
Factors that influence elections in nigeria still remain the same.we shall look at them one by one.

Finance:this will play a key role on Saturday.the economy is bad,hunger is pervasive and die hard supporters will surely collect money to vote against their favourites.it is a given.vote buying will be rife and unfortunately apc will out muscle obaseki here.

Federal might:the federal might which include security agents and even inec will come into play.it is clear the security forces will tilt towards pastor.there are allegations that the inec rec is an ex apc member.even obaseki said he will win if federal might is not deployed.
Popularity: both parties are evenly matched.obaseki's popularity is mostly at Benin metropolis while pastor is more rooted at the rural areas.
Collation centre:this is the most important part of the election.most rigging takes place at the collation centre.even gej attested to this.whoever controls the collation process will win.unfortunately, oshiomhole usually dominates collation centres.him and pastor has far more loyal men at polling and collation centres compared to obaseki..

It must be noted that for a ruling part to lose elections,one of two things usually happen.either an overwhelming majority of the masses bote against them or majority of the political actors gang up against them or both.the losses of apc in Adamawa and bauchi was because majority of the politicians across party divide gangup against the incumbent while the loss of apc in oyo,pdp In kwara and gombe was because an overwhelming majority of voters voted against them making it impossible to rig.

Oredo LGA: pdp 30,000 apc 15,000

Egor LGA; pdp 25000. Apc 15000

Ikpoba okha; pdp 25,000 apc 20000

Orhiomnwon LGA;pdp 10,000 apc 20,000

Uhumnwonde lg; pdp 7000 apc 15000

Ovia north east LGA:pdp 9000 apc 12000

Ovia south west lga: pdp ,12000 apc 18000

Esan central: pdp 15000 apc 10000

Esan central:pdp 13000 apc 10,000

Esan south east;pdp 10,000 apc 9000

Esan west: pdp 11000 apc 10,000

Igueben: pdp 8000 apc 10,000

Etsako west: pdp 14,000 apc 16000

Etsako west; pdp 13000 apc 19000

Etsako central:pdp 15000 apc 21000

Owan east:pdp 5000 apc 15000

Owan west: pdp 9000 apc 14000

Akoko edo:pdp 15,000 apc 30,000



Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Emmafantastic
Helinues
Favor
Unigrad
Flordflorez
Donphilohus
AWOL
Afroknight
Kyase
Caseless

point of correction, thief obaseki can not win oredo and egor local govt.

my prediction in Edo election


in a free and fair election PDP 57%, APC 43% but in Nigeria electoral settings APC 52% PDP 48%


Ondo election

free and fair election PDP 41%, APC 48% others 11%


with the reconciliation of APC stakeholders and federal might PDP 38% APC 52%....others 10%

Obaseki will loose

odigbosky:





You tried with your analysis but let's hit the nail.

Numbers by Number Esan people are more than Etsako people who are the kids of Oshiomole. The large chunk of Etsako voters are mainly in Edo north, but I can tell you that 40% of Esan voters are in Edo south and Benin city to be precise.

Don't look at the result from 2012 and 2016 to judge APC in this Election. 2012 was when the whole of Edo supported Oshiomole. 2016 Oshiomole had to share 5k per voters on the feild that day with numerous rigging tactics to close the gap in Edo central. This time, the votes from Edo central will be one sided. Just watch and see. Oredo votes alone is about 100,000. If Obaseki can get 60-70% of that vote, he will win in Edo South.


The battle will be in Edo north. Can Shuaibu tipp the scale over there. He has a lot to prove and this battle means so much to him.


Aside rigging this election
Obaseki stands a better chance of winning. It won't be a landslide, but he will emerge victorious.


What I don't understand is why is tinubu doing video for Edo elections

ok, firstly when we looking at local election demographics we don't factor in what population of another exist in a geographic space.

We look at it zonally and Edo Election has always followed zonal pattern (Esan has people in Benin just as afemai too).

Estako isn't the only lga comprising Edo North (Afemai has 6lga, Esan 5).

I am aware of oshomole dealings in the previous elections

However the battle won't be in Edo North but Edo South.

Don't forget Edo North has a boarder with both kogi and ondo who have governor's interested in this election. (All these would be too much on shaibu to handle).

He can only be at one place and doesn't control the security personnel or electoral officers who dictate movements and internal play

The votes in Edo South are likely going to be supressed (if apc isn't getting the numbers they won't allow pdp do over them) we saw this in osun.

That's is why the whole talk of thugs is on, they cause chaos, and all sorts to suppress numbers

odigbosky:





You tried with your analysis but let's hit the nail.

Numbers by Number Esan people are more than Etsako people who are the kids of Oshiomole. The large chunk of Etsako voters are mainly in Edo north, but I can tell you that 40% of Esan voters are in Edo south and Benin city to be precise.

Don't look at the result from 2012 and 2016 to judge APC in this Election. 2012 was when the whole of Edo supported Oshiomole. 2016 Oshiomole had to share 5k per voters on the feild that day with numerous rigging tactics to close the gap in Edo central. This time, the votes from Edo central will be one sided. Just watch and see. Oredo votes alone is about 100,000. If Obaseki can get 60-70% of that vote, he will win in Edo South.


The battle will be in Edo north. Can Shuaibu tipp the scale over there. He has a lot to prove and this battle means so much to him.


Aside rigging this election
Obaseki stands a better chance of winning. It won't be a landslide, but he will emerge victorious.


What I don't understand is why is tinubu doing video for Edo elections

is Atiku from Edo?

Nadaken:
ok, firstly when we looking at local election demographics we don't factor in what population of another exist in a geographic space.

We look at it zonally and Edo Election has always followed zonal pattern (Esan has people in Benin just as afemai too).

Estako isn't the only lga comprising Edo North (Afemai has 6lga, Esan 5).

I am aware of oshomole dealings in the previous elections

However the battle won't be in Edo North but Edo South.

Don't forget Edo North has a boarder with both kogi and ondo who have governor's interested in this election. (All these would be too much on shaibu to handle).

The votes in Edo South are likely going to be supressed (if apc isn't getting the numbers they won't allow pdp do over them) we saw this in osun

Afenmai is just a name. Afenmai is not a tribe but a conglomerate of different tribes with the Etsakos, Owans and cluster of tribes in Akoko Edo. The Esan on the other hand is a tribe and that's why I matched their numerical strength with the Etsakos who are the largest in Afenmai.

I will give you an instance, where Patrick Ugboma ran against Francis Alimikhena in 2015. It was like Owan vs Etsako in Edo north. Oshiomole has literally given almost everything in Edo north to his Etsako brethren. Their loyalty is very strong. The problem will come from the Owans and Akoko in the Afenmai Union.

So I know what I mean when I talked about the Etsakos separately.

Somebody here raised an issue about the Akoko Edo, going in the PDP direction. So this election is unique. I don't really see a huge fight in Edo south.

alen4smith:
is Atiku from Edo?

Presidential elections aren't local elections, the citizens vote rationally perphas without interest, the politicians might not mobilize enough, election is held in all states continuously at the same time, government policies influences voters, etc.

Infact in Edo a presidential election can rub off on the senators/reps contesting because people just use the same breath to vote others

garfield1:


Oredo LGA: pdp 30,000 apc 15,000

Egor LGA; pdp 25000. Apc 15000

Ikpoba okha; pdp 25,000 apc 20000

Orhiomnwon LGA;pdp 10,000 apc 20,000

Uhumnwonde lg; pdp 7000 apc 15000

Ovia north east LGA:pdp 9000 apc 12000

Ovia south west lga: pdp ,12000 apc 18000

Esan central: pdp 15000 apc 10000

Esan central:pdp 13000 apc 10,000

Esan south east;pdp 10,000 apc 9000

Esan west: pdp 11000 apc 10,000

Igueben: pdp 8000 apc 10,000

Etsako west: pdp 14,000 apc 16000

Etsako west; pdp 13000 apc 19000

Etsako central:pdp 15000 apc 21000

Owan east:pdp 5000 apc 15000

Owan west: pdp 9000 apc 14000

Akoko edo:pdp 15,000 apc 30,000

This one you're seeing vision. I hope you've eaten today.
Abi sai baba don reach ya side?

odigbosky:




Afenmai is just a name. Afenmai is not a tribe but a conglomerate of different tribes with the Etsakos, Owans and cluster of tribes in Akoko Edo. The Esan on the other hand is a tribe and that's why I matched their numerical strength with the Etsakos who are the largest in Afenmai.

I will give you an instance, where Patrick Ugboma ran against Francis Alimikhena in 2015. It was like Owan vs Etsako in Edo north. Oshiomole has literally given almost everything in Edo north to his Etsako brethren. Their loyalty is very strong. The problem will come from the Owans and Akoko in the Afenmai Union.

So I know what I mean when I talked about the Etsakos separately.

Somebody here raised an issue about the Akoko Edo, going in the PDP direction. So this election is unique. I don't really see a huge fight in Edo south.

Igueben could say they don't get fair representation too when power comes to Esan but that doesn't stop them from queueing as a block.

Politics is about concessions, is it not the same estako that is enjoy the largeese in pdp as demonstrated by shaibu.

Would Edo North be ok with obaseki four years and Esan gets power (while a bini man become deputy as speculated).

Would Edo North be ok to return to political exile after obaseki complete his term

Owans, akoko Edo cannot win Edo North not to talk of standing politically without their Estako brothers

I await the outcome of the election

It's quite interesting

alen4smith:
is Atiku from Edo?

I don't watch the news often. Neither do I have a huge presence on social media. I get most of my news here.

I only saw Tinubu today on TV by chance. I haven't seen Atiku

garfield1:

Obaseki is going

Let me help you conclude it Obaseki is going back to government house.

Nadaken:
Igueben could say they don't get fair representation too when power comes to Esan but that doesn't stop them from queueing as a block.



I await the permutations too and outcome.

It's quite interesting

The reason for Igueben is because the had Tom Ikhimi and Former speaker Ononobun then. The APC structure in Igueben has almost collapsed and now in the hands of PDP. The former speaker lost his seat and is of no political relevance there.

Ask the average Esan man. What is driving their support for PDP is what is called the Esan Agenda. It cuts across the divide.

Oshiomole is naturally wicked. He hates the Esan people. With him in control of APC, Esan won't get to government house.
1999---2007 Edo south gov/ Edo north dep
2008---2016 Edo north gov/ Edo south dep

Is it not natural that the governor swings to Edo central. Oshiomole because he is wicked took it back to Edo South in 2016. So PDP did same and gave Ize iyamu. While PDP was sympathetic to the Esan cause and gave Edo central deputy ticket, Oshiomole took the deputy ticket of the APC to Edo north. The same local government he is from.

Now imagine if Ize iyamu wins... He would run for another term, Edo south would have taken 12 years. Trust me, Oshiomole would want it to swing to maybe Owan or Akoko Edo in Edo north for Governor. This is what the Esan fear. Oshiomole just trying to strangle us politically.


Never forget that when Oshiomole was Governor, the Edo central didn't even Enjoy the speakership. It was rotating from south to north to central. It was just moving wherever Oshiomole wanted.

SLAP44:


The average Edo man is educated and intelligent, not a b people you can continue to enslave as you like. Edo state resources shouldn't be funneled to Bourdillion road.

SAY NO TO GODFATHERISM IN EDO.

You forgot to add that neither should Edo state resources funneled to Tax Collectors' party.
SAY NO TO TAX COLLECTORS' PARTY IN EDO.

Nadaken:
even that 50/50 he said so as an apc man just to massage ego.

There is no lga in Esan where apc would be on same pedestal with pdp as long as it's this Saturday election.



But there would be series of 50/50, 60/40 in Edo South

So what's your prediction for the election?

helinues:


Ambode have nothing to be ashamed of...

It was glaring people were dissapointed with his leadership hence losing woefully on Apc primary...

Yoruba's in general are progressive.. We don't support mediocrity like some people..

Cos me wondering how on Earth did Ikpeazu win his reelection

Yet support Buhari?

Yorubas?

Come of it dude.

garfield1:
Factors that influence elections in nigeria still remain the same.we shall look at them one by one.

Finance:this will play a key role on Saturday.the economy is bad,hunger is pervasive and die hard supporters will surely collect money to vote against their favourites.it is a given.vote buying will be rife and unfortunately apc will out muscle obaseki here.

Federal might:the federal might which include security agents and even inec will come into play.it is clear the security forces will tilt towards pastor.there are allegations that the inec rec is an ex apc member.even obaseki said he will win if federal might is not deployed.
Popularity: both parties are evenly matched.obaseki's popularity is mostly at Benin metropolis while pastor is more rooted at the rural areas.
Collation centre:this is the most important part of the election.most rigging takes place at the collation centre.even gej attested to this.whoever controls the collation process will win.unfortunately, oshiomhole usually dominates collation centres.him and pastor has far more loyal men at polling and collation centres compared to obaseki..

It must be noted that for a ruling part to lose elections,one of two things usually happen.either an overwhelming majority of the masses bote against them or majority of the political actors gang up against them or both.the losses of apc in Adamawa and bauchi was because majority of the politicians across party divide gangup against the incumbent while the loss of apc in oyo,pdp In kwara and gombe was because an overwhelming majority of voters voted against them making it impossible to rig.

Oredo LGA: pdp 30,000 apc 15,000

Egor LGA; pdp 25000. Apc 15000

Ikpoba okha; pdp 25,000 apc 20000

Orhiomnwon LGA;pdp 10,000 apc 20,000

Uhumnwonde lg; pdp 7000 apc 15000

Ovia north east LGA:pdp 9000 apc 12000

Ovia south west lga: pdp ,12000 apc 18000

Esan central: pdp 15000 apc 10000

Esan central:pdp 13000 apc 10,000

Esan south east;pdp 10,000 apc 9000

Esan west: pdp 11000 apc 10,000

Igueben: pdp 8000 apc 10,000

Etsako west: pdp 14,000 apc 16000

Etsako west; pdp 13000 apc 19000

Etsako central:pdp 15000 apc 21000

Owan east:pdp 5000 apc 15000

Owan west: pdp 9000 apc 14000

Akoko edo:pdp 15,000 apc 30,000



Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Emmafantastic
Helinues
Favor
Unigrad
Flordflorez
Donphilohus
AWOL
Afroknight
Kyase
Caseless

nobody want to remain as
slave in his or her own state, can a PASTOR be the chairman campaign in Kano?

helinues:


Ambode have nothing to be ashamed of...

It was glaring people were dissapointed with his leadership hence losing woefully on Apc primary...

Yoruba's in general are progressive.. We don't support mediocrity like some people..

Cos me wondering how on Earth did Ikpeazu win his reelection

if this is your excuse on ambode and Tinubu saga ,you really have no shame

Election in Nigeria can no longer be decided by permutation but rigging and vote buying so the highest bidder and riggers will be declared the winner.

Kriss216:
godfatherism has no stay in Edo State. Edo is not Lagos.



God bless Edo
God bless Obaseki




Shame on Ambode!

So which party do you think will win eventually?

Kriss216:

We say NO to Tinubu and his principalities.

We're Edolites, we're not slaves!

People like you don't understand how democracy works.

Tinubu is not contesting any election.
It is political parties that run for elections and Tinubu like so many other Nigerians belong to one of the political parties in the race, the APC.


The APC has a formidable structure on ground and stands a good chance to win come tomorrow, Separate 19,2020.

SLAP44:
The only factor under consideration is the slavery factor. Edo state is tired of godfathers in Lagos controlling their destinies through Osho.

That's why They Will Vote PDP. APC can only focus on rigging and federal might. The people wants to be free from slavery.

Why is it that the only sleepless night you always have, is about Lagos this, Tinubu that. You allowed your mentality to be controlled by what people said against someone that has never wronged you or anybody you know, then you turn around to say the person is controlling you.

gtown:

You forgot to add that neither should Edo state resources funneled to Tax Collectors' party.
SAY NO TO TAX COLLECTORS' PARTY IN EDO.

You are the true son of your father.