₦airaland Forum

HEAVEN4444:
Has anyone heard anything from bibi since after the 12 day beat down ? Baba done humble. All him cho cho cho done stop after his see real doings from Iran. He got dealt with. Now the man is hiding his head in shame. Has anyone seen bibi ? Where is bibi ?

Iran lost all her top military heads, several intelligence agents, nuclear scientists within 12 days of war. To add insult upon injury, several weapon manufacturing complexes and her prized multi-billion dollars nuclear programme
obliterated just likethat. Yet, you people are celebrating shame and disgrace of iran as victory.

Dogalmighty17:
The truth is that Iran has exposed the vulnerabilities of all Israeli aerial defense systems. Saturation attacks have changed the nature of the game. After using its old missile stocks to deplete the interceptors Israel had, Iran started launching its more modern ICBMs. Israel had no response to that.

It doesn't matter how good any anti-air system is. Saturation attacks will overwhelm it. Israel realised this later on and that's why they hurriedly accepted the ceasefire trump demanded.

And Israel has not decoded Iran’s strategies? Israel will definitely update and upgrade their air defense ststems/infrastructure.
Upon all the missile saturation from Iran, only about 30 ie 3% managed to hit their targets with current Israelis' air defense systems.

enemyofprogress:
*The Crumbling Dome: Iran-Israel Ceasefire, BRICS, and the End of Western Illusions*

By Umar Osabo PhD.
umarmosabo@gmail.com

*An Investigative Report*


*Introduction: A Ceasefire on Shaky Grounds*

When Iran and Israel agreed to an abrupt ceasefire last week, global media rushed to frame it as a diplomatic victory for Washington and European allies. But deeper investigation reveals a far more complex and troubling reality — one that not only redefines the security landscape of the Middle East but also signals the unraveling of the world order as we’ve known it since World War II.

Beneath the headlines, this ceasefire is less a testament to successful diplomacy and more a symptom of military vulnerability, shifting global alliances, and the accelerating decline of Western hegemony, US, Europe in particular.

*Who Really Blinked First?*

Public narratives suggest that both Iran and Israel chose diplomacy over further escalation. Yet, leaked diplomatic cables obtained by Der Spiegel and corroborated by Stratfor and the International Crisis Group paint a different picture: it was Israel that first signaled the need for de-escalation after suffering significant military setbacks.

A NATO intelligence assessment, leaked to The Guardian, revealed that Iran’s coordinated missile and drone assault overwhelmed key Israeli air defenses, rendering major airbases temporarily inoperable. For the first time in decades, Israel faced a direct military vulnerability it could neither deny nor swiftly remedy.

*The Myth of Israel’s Impenetrable Air Defense*

For years, Israel’s defense triad — Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow-3 — was celebrated as the world’s most sophisticated shield against aerial threats. But the June 2025 conflict revealed a shocking truth!

According to Jane’s Defence Weekly and SIPRI, Iran’s use of drone swarms, radar-blinding loitering munitions, and precision-guided ballistic missiles exposed critical flaws. A confidential IDF report, leaked to Haaretz, admitted that interception rates dropped to 62%, far below the publicly claimed 90%.

Iran’s engineers, likely aided by Russian and Chinese cyber-warfare expertise, jammed Israeli radar and overwhelmed its tracking systems. This unprecedented breach debunked decades of faith in Israel’s air defense superiority.

*America’s Dilemma, Europe’s Irrelevance*

Caught between its commitment to Israel and the global economic risks of further escalation, the U.S. found itself cornered. A classified CENTCOM advisory, published in Foreign Policy, recommended urgent de-escalation to prevent a broader conflict that could destabilize global energy markets and accelerate BRICS-led efforts to bypass the dollar.

Meanwhile, Europe, fractured and increasingly powerless, struggled to assert relevance. Germany balked at military involvement, while France initiated backchannel diplomacy with Iran via Oman — a telling sign of Europe’s diminishing alignment with U.S. policy in the region.

*BRICS: The Real Winner Behind the Ceasefire*

Far from the negotiating table, BRICS nations watched — and benefited. A white paper leaked from the BRICS Security Council reveals a coordinated strategy to capitalize on U.S. overextension.

Economically, the BRICS Pay system experienced a surge, bypassing SWIFT and reducing dependence on the dollar.

Militarily, Iran’s success validated asymmetric warfare models now being adopted in BRICS defense cooperation talks.

Geopolitically, energy diplomacy shifted. Saudi Arabia and Iran, now BRICS members, rerouted energy flows eastward, undermining U.S. and EU leverage.

*Will the Ceasefire Hold?*

Inside Israel, hardliners are furious. Leaked Mossad briefings warn that Netanyahu’s fragile coalition could collapse if perceived as weak. The political calculus leans toward breaking the ceasefire should Iran appear to rearm or escalate.

For Iran, the ceasefire serves tactical purposes, not strategic concession. Bolstered by military success and growing BRICS support, Tehran is unlikely to capitulate on key issues like its nuclear program or regional influence.

A CIA risk assessment, leaked to The Washington Post, bluntly states: “U.S. influence over both parties is rapidly eroding due to expanding Russian and Chinese leverage.”

*A Crumbling Western Hegemony*

This conflict exposed an uncomfortable truth: the post-WWII order, underpinned by U.S. military supremacy and economic dominance, is faltering.

Sanctions fatigue is real. Over 60% of global energy transactions are now conducted outside the dollar system, as confirmed by a joint Chatham House–PetroChina report.

Energy politics have shifted, with BRICS nations tightening intra-bloc energy security at the expense of Western importers.

Deterrence models, once based on superior air power and technological advantage, are now outdated in an era where drone swarms and cyber warfare democratize conflict.


*A World at a Crossroads*

The Iran-Israel ceasefire is not a peace treaty; it’s a pause dictated by mutual exhaustion and shifting power dynamics. The deeper reality is the collapse of old assumptions: that Western-led security, sanctions, and military technology can unilaterally dictate global outcomes.

BRICS is poised to formalize an alternative security framework, potentially challenging NATO’s monopoly on international security guarantees. Meanwhile, U.S. influence is weakening, constrained by internal divisions, military overstretch, and the crumbling power of the dollar.

Unless the West fundamentally recalibrates its global approach — embracing true multipolar cooperation rather than resisting it — the decline of Pax Americana is not just likely; it is inevitable.

*Conclusion: Beyond Missiles — The End of an Era*

This is not merely a Middle East story. It is the unraveling of an entire world order. The ordinary reader must understand: the myths of military invincibility, the power of sanctions, and the dominance of Western diplomacy are rapidly fading.

What comes next is a world increasingly shaped not by who controls the skies, but by who adapts fastest sweet to a reality where power is diffuse, alliances are shifting, and no empire — however mighty — remains unchallenged forever.


Umar Osabo PhD is a political, economy and security analysts with biase in Middle East Politics and Sahel. He can be reached on: umarmosabo@gmail.com


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Mumu talk from an I s lam ic ter rorist. It was Israel that bombed Iran last after a ceasefire was agreed to. On the last day of the 12-day war, Israel still kílled another top military personnel and nuclear scientist in Iran. How come Iran didn't respond to that if you think it was Israel that actually needed the ceasefire most?

gaskiyamagana:
Fantasy in the worlds of illusion and dellusion. Your face saving from Iran missiles onslaught ceasefire will soon expired and second half of your TOTAL DEFEAT will commence if you continue speaking RECKLESSLY. Kiss the truth or face humiliation.

You're still proud of failed missiles that had less than 3% success rate on a tiny Israel. Over 1000 missiles fired, less than 30 hit targets. While IDF hit thousands of targets in Iran.

God1000:
Lol, you guys are so funny

America launched a face saving attack on Iran's nuclear facilities just to hoodwink folks like you, nothing much was damage, why do you think they secretly informed Tehran before the operation, that's the reason Iran also informed them before striking their airbase in Qatar

Do you know how much america spent defending Israel from those ballistic missiles? They nearly exhausted all their interceptors, War is expensive to wage far away

Let your Iran start nuclear programme again and Israel will destroy them again and again and you people can do nothing. Go and ask Iraq.

David Mark still dey??
I'm not sure if he can win any election in Benue state presently..........expired politician.

What's this one saying here?.....................litany of gibberish!
Something like "not enough 40 characters junks"

The fear of Mossad is the beginning of...........for Ali.
Less than a month ago, he was in the conference room with his top 10 military personnel discussing the the security situation of the country. Today, ayatollah is in the same conference room surrounded by 10 skeletons and the ghost of the same top military Generals.

Unfortunately, no one knows the whereabout of Jubril Al Sudani who got him arrested/kidnapped. Is Jubril still in Nigeria or has he returned back to Sudan?

CoronaVirusPro:
Why did he call for a cease fire after dropping bombs!

Oh! The barrages of missiles that went into Israel scared him?

Netanyahu knew the iron dome had collapsed and pleaded with Trump yo call for a cease fire.

Everyone knows Israel, they will NEVER call for a cease fire if they winning.

Netanyahu learnt that, Iran was mass producing ballistics missiles more than they using and he got scared and caved in.

Hello, Iran never begged for a cease fire and went all out. Trump called for a cease fire and it was 100% influenced by Israel. They knew they were going flat.

The entirety of Israel was just 24 days from becoming a car park in the Middle East.

Iran let off all the smoke 💨 💨💨

On the last day of the war, Israel still killed Iranian top military personnel inside Tehran and also destroyed many of their missile stockpile and launchers. Iran could barely fire up to 30 missiles at once again.

When banks have more employees than manufacturing/construction/agro-allied companies, it's not good enough for the economy. It's like having medical doctors more than patients.

PigTormentor:
Iran allows Christianity in their country, but the Jews don't. Go and educate yourself.
The Jews killed your Jesus, and they hate Christians, in case you didn't know.

So Christians Pilgrimage that has been happening for centuries is done in Tehran? Nigerian owned Churches like RCCG, TB Joshua's synagogue, Winners etc have branches in Israel, have you ever heard of attacks on them?
Unfortunately for you Nigerian sunni muslims, Iranian shia muslims see and treat you guys as pigs 🐖 They'll rather bomb your sunni's mosques than attack a Church.

LordBiden:
Iran killed lots of isreali generals just that Netanyahu instructed no pictures should be taken and also banned journalists from accessing the info

Iran won the fight.

Because you believe that a country's military general are unknown rodents. Warped mind!

CoronaVirusPro:
Stop making yourself happy.

Israel lost. Accept it and move on!

And you cannot mention any??

They scandalously lost all those top brass and yet they're still celebrating and claiming victory, because they were able to destroy less than 50 buildings (majorly civilian residences and hospitals) and less than 30 people in Israel. Iran is an embarrassment to the military and intelligence world. Shame!

Truvelisback:
Israel would have won without the help of the U.S if they were to be reckless in their attack like Iranians targetting Civillians. Israel only chose to follow the instructions of Trump.

Iran couldn't even launch more than 30 missiles at a time again. Israel had already destroyed about 70% of their launchers and missile stockpile. In the next 2 weeks, Israel would have rendered Iran incapacitated, bombed their oil & gas fields, power plants and seaports. All these are still within the reach of IDF.

If a tiny country like Israel was attacked with over 1,000 hypersonic ICBM and over 2,000 drones and yet less than 100 buildings were destroyed and less than 30 people died, that should be a big success in a war of that magnitude.

A country that is 3 times the size of Nigeria and 62 times the size of Israel, blessed with numerous protective mountains, yet could not protect her citizens, is a shame. It's so disgraceful for a big for nothing Iran to lose her military top brass on the first day of the war, lost the control of her airspace and kept losing her nuclear scientists, military and intelligence personnel and assets every day of the war, and yet celebrating the destruction of civilian residence and hospitals in Israel.

FreeStuffsNG:
Hubris. Smh. That's the main reason for all these destruction in pictures. Pride goeth before a disgrace.

Iron dome, arrow that and arrow this lule pii.
My condolences to all the grieving families on all the warring sides.

If your Iran got half of iron dome, may be all her general/military top brass would still be alive today.

Putindbutt:
Is it about who owns Maxar or the fact that Iran moved her uranium before the strikes. Do you think US will be delighted striking an empty sites with 14 of 30, 000 pound bombers?, who dash you this low thinking?

Because you think that enriched Uranium is like bags of gari? Na condemned iron mei bowlers come help pack them na

ElevationD:
Agreed. There was an earthquake in Iran last week. From analysis, it would have been the successful testing on a nuclear weapon. Also they had been threatening that a USA attack would receive a response that would reverberate for generations to come.

Story! Iran is about to go down.

jamp:
following will occur

US will strike back
Russian will strike US
China will strike US
North Korea will strike US

and world war 3 will start

You nkọ? Won't you strike US?
Tumfulu talk.

RodgersAkpafu:
What Israel have done is to even thicken the resolve of the Iranians

You think when the dust settles, iran will not continue from where they stopped?
And no, it is the Israelis who provoked this attack, while Iran was negotiation

By the time this war is over, Iran will not even have any economy again.

Shebi they've been telling lies that the nuclear was for peaceful use, why are they now collecting nuclear warheads from other countries? They just confirmed that Israel and US attacks are justifiable.

Anyway, Russia is just pressing their mumu button.

malali:
Niger delta (Tompolo) they dont have navy or airforce......Nigerian government cannot try them. If they shut down oil flow in Nigeria.
Iran has 500k active soldiers.........
USA only has 50k in the whole of the middle east........

Have you heard of Guerilla Warfare....You want to go into someone's house to fight him when he knows where the NEPA switch is

He will deceive you to come inside, then switch off the NEPA switch and teach you a lesson.

We're talking about international shipping routes, you're talking of Tompolo and Nigeria. What's the correlation here?
It's true that Iran has a very large army without wartime experience. As huge as they are, how effective are they against Israelis' invasion 🤔? They're been harvested inside their fortified homes on daily basis and now you want expose them to international crisis to face.

malali:
They want to shut it down, let all those government feel it.

This is where the real war starts, America has been getting cheap energy(crude oil and LNG) for awhile

The likes of Russia, Iran,Iraq,Saudi,Nigeria etc have been dealing with low revenue to finance their budgets.

Iran is seeking advice from Russia. The only way they could stick it to the USA is to shut the strait of Hormuz down.

2 Major things will happen.
1-Oil prices will skyrocket, guesstimated to reach $130-$150 a barrel. Russia,Iraq,Saudi,Qatar etc will experience a windfall. The money will boost all of the middle east economy despite the bombs.

2nd- Americans will start blaming trump for starting a war once gas (petrol) prices go up. American economy relies on cheap petrol prices. If petrol is too expensive some jobs are not even worth going to, especially minimum wage jobs, inflation would surge, The federal reserve would have to hike rates, Trump economy might falter and have to start paying stimulus.Some crazy democrats will start the motion to impeach trump,if life gets too hard on Americans.

Russia will protect Iran with all their might, because that's the only way people will buy more of Russian Oil, if there is scarcity. Russia's Oil and Nigerian are the biggest producers that do not traffic through the strait of Hormuz.

No long talk. If dem born Iran well make them shut or block anywhere.
Iran that doesn't have any formidable Navy or Airforce wants to block strait of Hormuz. They'll be roasted into ashes

Firstcitizen:
This is not 1945. The Houthis beat the US recently so bad that Trump had to beg for a ceasefire

Hmmmn! Should we call this share stooopidity or severe dumbnesssss or irreversible daftnessss!

Zuckembego:
Why is America helping Israel to fight Iran? Is Israel now that weak?
Israel and Iran should be left alone to fight their fight and let's see who wins.

America is not helping the Israel to fight the war, they only bombed their nuclear materials buried in the bunkers under the mountain. US did it for the whole world.
As for the war between Israel and Iran, this is just the beginning.

TempleHouse:
Failure is when the so called super power bombed EMPTY DESERT and celebrate.

Yet they went in the night secretly with all their might.

Two Countries -US & ISRAEL fighting a small country -IRAN

Humiliation awaits them !!!

Your lamentations are just building up.
We are still expecting your Iran's daddies - Russia, China and NKorea to show face as you have been blowing mouth ever since. Dem no born them well.

Krismas:
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev:

"If Iran has nuclear weapons, it will definitely use them! If not, Iran will continue to seek to acquire nuclear weapons "by any means."
Netanyahu will step down one day, but Iran will remain in power, perhaps under the leadership of a New Ayatollah."

FYI, the last ayatollah is Ali K. and his days are numbered. Regime change is inevitable and very imminent in Iran. Know this and have peace.

Krismas:
Brigadier General Tangsiri, IRGC Navy Commander:

"The Strait of Hormuz will be closed in a few hours."

I can assure that he and the entire blockade will be dismantled in less than 5 minutes

Thoth02:
Doesn't seem like US destroyed anything.

Iran is being smart in this situation.

Iran is smart and willing to fight but has very weak Allies(Russia,China and NK)

Tell me what China,NK has been doing to support Iran. Allies on paper and nothing else.

China is busy with economy, No peace, No economy.

Shebi we told you people, but you were busy beating chest and running mouth cho cho cho. When the combo of of Israel and US sneeze. The rest of them, including China, Russia and NKorea catch cold.
Decades of Billions of dollars fruitless projects of Iran were just flushed down the drain just like that