₦airaland Forum

Charlesmud:
Nigeria will come to be the worst country in the world if Nigerians don't act. Investors are already moving out of Nigeria to Europe where there is sensible way of development and stability in growth.

This is not true and probably misleading. Investors are moving money out of Nigeria to meet cash calls back home in their respective countries. Simply put, they should not have invested these monies in Nigeria or any other place in the first place because they realy never had the money to invest in the first place. They were simply driven by the astronomical returns of the Nigerian markets and borrowed the monies they invested. The monies in question were backed by inflated equities that have sudenly deflated and their lenders now want their money back to shore up their crumbling balance sheets.
Fact: Europe has had a negative growth for the past several years with increasing social  services  needed to sustain an aging population and no rational investor will be moving money to such an environment.

Charlesmud:
Mr "RevMallam" and Mrs "Pennywise"  I can see both of you are wise and smart, But u didnt tell the rest of the class how you could be able to talk to us easily,fast and direct, U didnt tell us how come you where able to write English for all of us to understand what you are saying, U didnt tell us how come Soludo knows about economy and management.

Ok, I don't understand what you mean, but I try to write in simple English devoid of economic jargons and I assumed everyone understood my mode of writing. But I clearly don't understand what you mean.

Soludo; love or hate him is one of the smartest economists out there today and even the so-called "world bank" agrees. He was a professor of Economics at the University of Nigeria Nsuka. He has long argued for the scapping of the current global financial system and made similar calls as recent as 2 months ago.
I am proud he is a Nigerian, but we will not value him till he joins the "World bank" next year and starts working for them, then we will again have lost another, but then again, there are other brilliant Nigerian economists from Nsukka, Ile Ife, Ibadan, Lagos. If we look inside, we will clearly see that all these half educated expartriates are not needed.

Charlesmud:
Since you said Europe and America crashed the world (if not them I don't know what African leaders would have done to this world when after 100.000 years they are still sleeping under tree and Europeans came to Africa to start the development, in just 50,000 years see where we are )

Well, are you saying they did not?? They actually did. The problem is global becuase global financial system is dollar based and with a declining and negative growth in the US and Europe, the world is forced to actaually "participate" in their problem.

Charlesmud:
If we were not colonised maybe we would still be eaten uncooked vegetablle and living in a mud house which will distroy our race,

Ahhh, this assertion is a racist myth perpetuated by  racist Western media,  bbc, cnn, etc.
Fact is, Africa has done ok, but should have done better, Nigeria being a good example. But even at that, do a regression analysis using the time of independence as a starting point.
You will be amazed at what the trend lines will look like. You will be amazed that things are not as bad as we make it out to be, but should be better.
The bigest problem facing Africa is bad leadership and sustained Negative media.

Personally, I am of the opinion, that Nigeria produces someof brightest minds out there, but we have not figured out a way to employ them, but hope is not lost. Perhaps the current crisis may be the awakening.
Revmallam

Pennywise:
Una be alarmist economists.Nothing new.Nothing dey happen. We survived sap and the worst Abacha had to throw at us.Nigeria go better.When things don improve and 'indices' don go up we will be here to read about your explanation and excuses.

,  what goes on in the Nigerian economy is either undocumented or not properly understood.Yet we dey go.

This exactely what the problem is. We wait for things to "improve" but we are not the ones making or deciding when the improvements have occured.
Africans wait for others to determine their  fates. Frankly speaking, African economies are in better shapes than most of the Europe and North America, but becuase we have no voice in determining global directions due to stupid leadership, we just follow same people who crashed the world in the first place.

Pennywise:
,  what goes on in the Nigerian economy is either undocumented or not properly understood.Yet we dey go.

Here is another problem. What goes on in any economy should be understood. What is happening in America and Europe is as a result of convulated economic theories based solely on hedonics. Crooks and criminals were allowed to push and introduce various thoeries without understanding the implications.
The entire world believed and followed Americans and the result is what we have.
Personally, I will never employ an American trained economist, because I personally don't believe that true economic principles are taught in American schools and even when they are taught, individuals are not allowed to practice them.

The global or specifically, Amercan and European economic meltdown may be a blessing in disguise. It  may allow the world to rethink and reevaluate  outdated economic models being pushed by americans.

The question is, will our myopic leaders allow people like Soludo to chart the course for an independent economic rebirth that works with the western world and NOT follow their every single dictate?
With clowns like Yar'ADull, I am not holding my breath !!
revmallam

PapaBrowne:
I can see everyone is expressing his/her very interesting opinion on the current financial crisis and it's pretty impressive how informed we all are. So I figure I can add my own two cents.

In my opinion,(and this might sound like a conspiracy theory) the financial crisis was partially crafted and brewed by the Americans and the British with slight support from a few other western powers.The move was initiated to prevent a potentially catastrophic crash to the American capitalism and indeed the global financial system. I say "partially" because, they didn't start it, they only hastened what had already started.

No, it is not consipiracy thoery. Your views are similar to those expressed by T. Boone Pickens, one of the wealthiest men in the world and in America. For long, he has argued that by buying high priced oil from America's potential enemies and competitors, America is engaging in what he called, "the greatest wealth transfer in the history of mankind". He argued that America should crash oil prices by developing natural gas powered industrial base.
You maybe wondering what he stood to gain, the answer is that his group of companies controls the largest gasexploration company in the US.
He was dismissed as a man man with too much money and nothing else to do, but when you are worth billions, capitalist neo-cons take you serious while the government openly denies any involvement.
Infact your views are widely held and secretly, many people believe, both what you and T Boone are saying is exactely what is happening.

As for Nigeria, we are doomed with the clown we have as president. Soludo will be leaving next year to join the "world bank"  and Yar'A DOG will replace him with another incompetent idiot.
revmallam

courage89:
I believe the financial crisis rocking the US economy will be short-lived. By the end of 2nd quarter, normalcy and stability within US going forward should be returning to the market. I agree with you “Omi Tutu” Keynesian theory will definitely bring the economy back to its normal state of mind. US debt is at all time high…but Obama insist on more spending (Direct spending and indirect spending) to prop up employment. Tax season is just around the corner, many people are going to get several refund checks from the government. Also, we have the 2nd economic stimulus package roaring in the house of Representative and Senate. I believe all these spending couple together and some other factors will reduce money hoarding and shore up investors/ consumers confidence, therefore returning the stability back to the system.

The down turn may be longer than most people expect and even Obama has said it. The reason being that, the savings rate in the US is very low and the US economy is based primarily on real estate values and holdings in company stocks. But as real estate prices continue to deflate due to high unemployment, lack of credit and declining productivity, people have no where to borrow from and banks are not willing to loan money based on declining asset values.
So when people receive the tax refunds, the tendency will be for them to hold onto it and not spend it. Ofourse there is always the minority that are oblivious to basic economic pricinples who will spend.
For things to turn around, it will take a massive infusion of cash given to everyone to spend. Alternatively, a massive reduction of all interest rates on homes in America to a rate below 5% for every primary residence.
With this done, homeowners will then have money to spend and more people will be able to buy homes. Buying a home in America means you will have to furnish it etc and then the spending cycle  begins again.  Like or hate Americans, they are the economic engine of the world becuase they are the only people who spend money they don't have. The chinese, Africans, Europeans, Arabs,  tend to save for what they want.
Once Americans start spending borrowed money again, then, all the money that people are sitting on will be set loose again and perhaps, things will start moving again, but untill real estate prices are up, giving people bogus sense of wealth, am afraid, not much is going to change.
revmallam

ikeyman00:
leave federal reserve out of this! there was once a time some expert call for convertin all reserves to euro when the dollar initally depreciates

like some that beleives that breakin up nigerian will producin pradise, u need your head check, a suitation when a single governor can bankrupt a state is frightening i think!

4 Play:
There are 2 misconceptions: that what we are witnessing is a paradigm ideological shift and that free market economists never countenanced priming up aggregate demand in the event of economic crises.

The phrase "Free Market" is an upfront loaded term used by American style capitalists to obfuscate the facts. There is no such thing as "Free Market". It does not and has never existed. All markets are regulated.  If "Free Market" did actually exist, then there will be no need for the EU to subsidize their farmmers and industries and so do the Americans, Chinese etc.
African farmers and manufacturers are the only one that are not subsidized and that explains why they can not compete in the global economy. Even the british pound is subsidized and is not allowed per government policy to fall below a certain level.
"Free Market" is used by US and Europeans to trick developing economies to open their economies to unfair competetion.
The Chinese however found a way around this due to huge economies of scale they have to get around this by paging their currency to the dollar and then devauling even the paged currency. How clever !! The net result has been that, no matter what happens to the dollar, it does not affect them.  American have for long been urging them to rebalance their currency, but they have ignored them.
The problem the world is facing is that, we are facing a situation where people are forced to buy only what they can pay for resulting in less demand for Chinese goods who are the main  financiers of American way of life, (borrow and spend).
Yes, the good times will surely come back, but the days of American leadership is clearly in the rear view mirror.
The Chinese have over one trillion dollars in foreign reserves, the indians have close to 700 billion, the middle East same, Africa has over 200 billion with 60 % of that coming from Nigeria.  US has only 33 billion !!
Yes, there's  lots of money out there, but nobody wants to loan to a company that may not be around tomorrow or even an economy that may not have enough buying power to generate a reasonable returns.
revmallam

pcmecom:
this is just the beginning,the following are the things to watch out for in nigeria
1. Most of the foreign investment from Uk and US in nigeria would be gradually redrawn from our financial,educational and even health sectors.
2. In the coming months the price of oil will fall below $40 for the first time in so many years.
3. The fall in the price of oil in the international market will eventually lead to the collapse of the US dollar as a currency.
4. This global financial crisis being experience will linger for a couple of years before full economic recovery will commence.
5. The eventual collapse of the US economy would create a "lacuna" in world affairs, this would lead to the emergence of developing countries including Nigeria

The above is not a prophecy nor is it a prediction, but is something that is going to happen in the world in the coming months. I have always said something similar in the past but I have been often times critise. To my critics in this forum "watch out and see what will happen"

The American economy will eventually collapse.

American economy has already collapsed or to say the least is on life support. If you are looking for evidence, consider this:
(1) AIG, collapsed and rescued by government.
(2) Citibank collapsed and rescued by the government.
(3)Wachovia Bank collapsed and rescued by government.
(4) The auto industry, collapsed about to be resued by government.
(5) More than 32 million unemployed, unemployment rate at almost 7.00 %
(6)More than 4 million homes foreclosed.
(6) These days, no day or week goes by without a major bank or industry failing.
The collapse of America however poses a serious problem for the world, becuase global currencies are denominated in the dollar and currently there is nothing else to replace it.
The  Chinese who have the potential to replace the US just as the US replaced Britain have 90 % of their assets dollar based. So the world is stuck untill a better sustainable model comes up. Definetly, the US model of capitalism was unsustainable and what is happening now was destined to happen.
Fact is, the US economy was built on a model that allowed everyone to borrow and live beyond their means. This was fine as long as there were pople to loan you the money. Then the US invaded Iraq and was spending $10 billion a month. Essentially, this bankcrupted their economy with all the money being used  to wage an unneeded war, there was no money to loan and boom, things fell apart. It is important to remember that the Soviet Union also collapsed after they used all their money to wage war in Afghanistan.
The capital flight that economies such as Nigeria are witnessing is as a result of American and British (whose economy has collapsed as well) are widrawing funds to pay creditors in their home countries who are either going bankrupt or they themselves are in deep financial problems.
Weather this presents a good opportunity for emerging economies like Nigeria depends on the leadership. For Nigeria, with a clown like Yar'A DOG, forget it. He leacks leadership skills and even if someone offered him a sound insight, he will waste another 2 years making up his mind.
Yar'A DULL will end up being the worst thing to have happend to Nigeria.
Yes, I believe and predict oil prices are heading to the $20 ++ range.
With too many people homeless in America and jobless, they have no need to drive and no homes to heat or cool, so zero demand for oil.
We are all screwed, thanks to Americans and British, but don't count America out yet. They have a cunning way of reinventing themselves either by trickery, force or lies.
God help us all.
revMallam

Nigerians don't want change, simple and short.
Every change that has been tried failed becuase Nigerians failed to rally around the initiator. They simply complained and complained and wrote about "how things work in foreign lands" but try it in their own country; hell no.
Growing up several years in Nigeria, Students Unions used to initiate change by taking to the streets. These days, they are more interested in cults, but yet they complain.
Left to me, Nigerian should be flogged 12 times daily till they shape up.!!
revmallam

Change begins with one person and then spreads. Ribadu like or hate him initiated change, but the media who were the main beneficiaries of the hanky panky in the country went after him and destroyed him with the help of our so called indicise president.
Maybe, Fashola is starting a new revolution and should be encouraged.
One of the major problems facing Nigeria today is that we have no examplelary states to follow. Maybe, Lagos may turn out to be that state.
Revmallam

The problem with Nigerian is that they want it both ways. They want a good country and everything for "free" provided for by the "government". Yet, when anyone tries to implement those, they complain.
Well, here in America, if you don't pay your tax, you get thrown in jail. Your Car, House and anything of value that you own gets taken by the government and auctioned off at whatever price the government can get for it. If after selling your stuff and they did not make enough money, you owe the balance.
Tax evasion is a serious crime that ruins your credit and that's just the start of your problems. With a ruined credit, you can not get a "good job". If they government convicts you of a felony, which tax evasion is, then you will not be able to vote again in many states.
They should stay shut down till they pay their taxes. While they are it, they should go after BBC, CNN etc. Fact is they doing business without paying taxes.
Wake Nigerians.
Revmallam