₦airaland Forum

procky:
Chiaaaa... It's worse than I thought

procky:
You See what you people have caused. You were all screaming Tissuepaper Stake big stake big..

Now he has sold his Papa land and staked big and he lost everything.

His brain has knocked.. Bayensian inference and antimaria just to recover his losses.. If any of you knows his house or family member, please announce to them to tie him rope. Some madness usually starts with the person speaking big big English...

FRoosevelt:
Exactly. Most punters only consider events happening within the mean percentile. Veteran punters evaluate the outliers in the 90th percentile. The skewed occurrences are mostly what determine outcomes.

FRoosevelt:
I like the part where you mentioned the players emotional state.

Football matches or any other competition are 60% psychological. Statistics aside, you can't compare the performance of a strong team playing preseason friendlies, to playing in a decisive knockout game.

Also, derby games, backroom crises, fatigue, weather,injuries, lineups, formations etc are decisive considerations in making a prediction.

Bookies don't consider most of these things until the last minute where you are likely to see their odds fluctuating based on what majority of people are staking on.
So the bookies, though smart, don't have it all. A smart punters should be able to explore these flaws and make a killing.

I can attest to that.

Bigmex:
well its good to calculate or determine the odds yourself using poisson distribution or through whatever means. but hey note this you can never have all the information and data odd compilers or traders have which they use to arrive at the odds shown on bet exchanges. these guys have superior in depth knowledge of the games or leagues. infact they specialise on at most two leagues. they know everything about a team from A to Z statistically. these are things you dont know. so at most times, they are right with their values. it is your duty to calculate the vig they built in and determine the true odd values set. but you may ask why then do we see unexpected outcomes in some games. some games not all games. the answer is very simple, in as much as the analysis of a match may be thorough, a players emotional build up to the game and during the game cannot be predicted accurately, this major factor has been left out and contributes also to the outcome of a game

1realBobby:
Mr tissuepaper if you nor turn billionaire this year after all this your plenty grammar, I go vex for you ooo
Mr tissuepaper if you nor turn billionaire this year after all this your plenty grammar, I go vex for you ooo

FRoosevelt:
Yeah. Binomial probability distribution is helpful if used in concordance with recent statistics and match outcomes.
The bottom line is- don't follow the bookie's odds. The deceptive concept of reverse psychology(as you mentioned earlier) employed by bookies, is a pitfall to most punters, coupled with the fact that the bookies are also humans, who are also affected by the punter's plague- unpredictablility of future outcomes.

FRoosevelt:
The bookies don't mess with their profit margin.
The sensible thing to do is ignore their odds and generate yours using strategies such as Poisson distribution.
With this you can expect to break even.

Sugaarh:
Me dat did nt go to school or understand all dis nonsense yu sayin how is that one nw my biz ehn... Please yu pple shud carry yur martingale n go make yur millions and die with it...nonsense hope you carry the money to heaven if not na hell fire yu go rotten idiota

Sugaarh:
Just lookat dis wan ehnn.. wat is diswan saying
Broda y nw
Wat happened to your martingale rules habi na method??
Goan use yur own probability oya go

Viking007:
Abeg wetin cast am?

Rushmore:
So you were/are a secret follower of his?

Viking007:
You actually completed this roller? Congratulations! I was silently following, never knew you got banned. First publicly completed roller in 2018, not a small feat.

austino677:
July 4!! cc goldenval Viking007 i hope to receive birthday gifts shaa

Sugaarh:
Yu dey call am bah thunder fia yu der....i thought you already a millionaire by nw...idiota

innobets:
As in ehhh

felixtare:


na you come foolish pass d original poster

na you come foolish pass d original poster

Ellabae:
hmmmmmmmn true o.

Ellabae:
Straight win for Brazil nd over 1.5

sukhothai:
TissuePaper you de awake..
Make i show?
Good morning my man

Alexpetra:
mr brain i hope u dey see as human being like u dey share tips were u dey try advice am.
No one knows it all!

johnpablo541:
It was already 90 mins so i thought everything was over. So one mind just said "put small thing just in case"