Trillville's Posts
Nairaland Forum › Trillville's Profile › Trillville's Posts
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (of 35 pages)
If MDA's are privatised, so workers are reduced, the budget will be reduced, and there will be no need to have oil at historical highs ($140 per barrel). workers need to be reduced, the whole budgetary system needs to be reformed. |
grandstar:This is 100 percent wrong. Exchange rates change due to many reasons such as interest rates, supply of money, demand for exportable products, sovereign wealth funds (savings in foreign currencies), etc. Your approach of blaming Buhari for borrowing money and excessively using the ways and means, for the collapse of the Naira is bad. If you were made president in 2015, what economic steps would you have taken and what results do you think you would have achieved? Remember that oil prices were low and Nigeria had no savings. |
All the factors you mentioned are wrong because Nigerians outside of Nigeria are highly successful people. It is not like the Nigerians living outside of Nigeria were specially selected. Why don't they suffer from poverty like Nigerians in Nigeria? The direct cause of poverty in Nigeria is the poor management of the exchange rate, and the reason why the exchange rate is poorly managed is that the general population of Nigerians lack knowledge of why the Naira loses value, so they cannot act as a check and balance against the government's rascality. Nigerians think the Naira loses value because of borrowing money from the World Bank or the IMF. There's the belief that these banks force the Nigerian government to devalue the Naira whenever Nigeria cannot pay its debts. This is false. In the Naira's history, it has only appreciated during one period, between 2004 and 2008. The unique feature in our currency management was a properly founded Sovereign Wealth Fund (the Excess Crude Account). The collapse of oil prices in 2014 doomed the Naira because all the money saved in the excess crude account was depleted. Saudi Arabia saved $900 billion, and Russia saved $300 billion, but Nigeria only saved $500 million. The only reason the Naira did not fall in 2014 was that the government borrowed money to support the Naira's value. The military men who were fortunate to be in power in the 70's and early 80's stole so much money, they remained politically relevant until the 2010's. The politicians who were fortunate to be in power between 2010 and 2014 will remain relevant until they die. |
People will start using lanterns and candles again. A country in motion without movement. |
aribisala0:You are right. Trade across Africa is critical to our development. A lot of issues have made trade difficult but are being gradually resolved. Issues such as poor modes of transportation(no navigable rivers so we need low cost locomotive trains), expensive payment systems(I believe this has recently been fixed), multiple tax policies (this is being fixed), etc. some things which appear to be easy are very complicated. |
emkz:Commodities are priced the same globally. This is the biggest issue with currencies. Oil is about the same price everywhere so if a country’s currency loses value, it becomes more expensive for its citizens to buy oil. You can google commodities to get a better understanding. |
emkz:It matters because commodities such as oil and Natural gas are priced internationally. When the Naira loses value, the unit cost of energy goes up. It is like a tax on the system that limits growth and causes poverty. This should be obvious to you. |
professorPABX:GDP is calculated in USD. When a country's currency loses value, the value of the country's GDP reduces. Even if the country's population remains the same, its GDP per capita shrinks. GDP per capita is the easiest way to calculate the standard of living between countries. GDP per capita uses the Mean Average in its calculation. If it used the Median average, it would be more accurate. China and Nigeria are different countries. In statistics, the normal curve shows the distribution of data. Data on the tails are outliers and data in the middle represent the highest occurence of an incident. comparing a country with a diversified economy with another without electricity and struggling to educate its citizens is illogical. China devalueing the Yuan gives it a competitive edge. Nigeria Devaluing the Naira makes electricity production more difficult stunting productivity and growth. Do not compare apples with oranges. |
JuanDeDios:Even though their currencies are weak, the people in such nations are rich. The only time in Nigeria’s history that the Naira gained value was when Obasanjo saved money in the ECA. No savings equals depreciation of the Naira once economic shocks occur. |
JuanDeDios:Compare the GDP per capita in those countries to Nigeria’s. Nigeria is the 12th poorest nation on earth. |
LegendHero:You reduce the size of the budget. The ECA is essential to manage the value of the Naira |
Alphagan:What I find interesting about this data is that the naira gained value between 2004 (N144) and 2008 (N115.5). What was different about this period? Was it the growing Excess Crude Account? Was it the reduced government spending due to privatization? Was it the gradual increase in fuel prices to reduce the burden of subsidies on the government purse? Was it the consolidation of banks and the telecom industry growth? Was it the growth of private sector players such as Nollywood and Afrobeats? Was it the fact that no governor or state had a private jet? Oil prices were not the highest during this period. In fact the highest oil price was between 2011 and 2014. What was so special about this period? Cc Mrvitalis Grandstar Nairalanda1 Aribisala0 Kukutente23 |
Nigerians have not yet woken up. Things may still get radically worse in the coming years. Nigerians need to start focusing on the policy promises of politicians rather than their tribe or their religion. Nigeria is relatively rich in resources but its people are amongst the poorest in the world. Even poor landlocked countries in Africa have citizens living better than Nigeria. IQ maps of the world show that west Africans have the lowest IQ on earth. This isn’t indicative of our individual educational abilities but our inability to solve collective problems. The irony is clear seeing that the highest rate of educated immigrants in America are Nigerians, yet in Nigeria, rather than have power stations, everyone has a generator set, rather than have water treatment plants, everyone has a well or a borehole. The solutions to Nigeria’s problems include raising taxes on properties, imported cars, clothes and phone and spending the generated money on public education. Taxes need to be raised to reduce the pressure on the naira. This is the solution in my view. |
aribisala0:The governments’ of other countries tax the houses and cars of their rich citizens. This is to dissuade them from wasteful spending. Governments also provide tax breaks as an incentive for rich citizens to invest in businesses. Both the citizens and the government of Nigeria lack focus. |
The countries on the list have either had currency devaluations or civil wars, so the list is somewhat accurate. Turkey, Lebanon, Argentina, Nigeria, Egypt, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe have experienced currency issues in the last 20 years. The main problem with Nigeria is Nigerians. We are too sentimental to diagnose issues; everything is viewed through an emotional lens. Resource (Oil) rich countries need to save money from the revenue they get from the sales of their resources. Global prices of resources are never stable, so the savings are meant to even out the government's revenue. When revenues are high, savings should be increased, and government spending should remain relatively constant. When revenues are low, savings should be depleted, and government spending should remain relatively constant. During the good times, the government should reduce debt, and during the bad times, debt should rise at a steady rate while devaluing the currency gradually to minimise pressure on imports. GEJ wasted all the money Obasanjo and Yar'Adua saved. Buhari met an empty purse. Buhari borrowed money and gradually devalued the Naira. Tinubu crashed the Naira, pushing Nigerians into poverty. Crashing the Naira gave the government extra dollars and reduced the pressure on imports. Rather than saving the excess dollars, Tinubu increased the security vote and constituency allowances of public servants, increasing inequality and also pressuring the Naira. |
grandstar:Great explanation. However, Obasanjo managed Nigeria’s economy in a very simple way. The naira went from about 150 to a dollar in 2003, to 116 to a dollar in 2008 (Yaradua’s tenure). He gradually increased petrol prices to 75 naira removing subsidies as the international price of crude oil increased and saving extra revenues in the excess crude account. The collapse of the naira and Nigeria’s economy is directly attributable to destruction of property economic management by the GEJ administration. I wonder why this is so difficult for people to realize. Even now, the naira still remains under threat. So far Nigeria doesn’t re-establish an ECA. |
nairalanda1:Please, what specific things can Tinubu do to make Nigeria to manufacture goods and services? |
Buhari was a patriot, a leader and a father. He inherited an expensive government at a time when crude oil prices were low. He borrowed money and printed money, but he paid contractors and civil servants. He left a debt-to-GDP ratio of 23% which is amongst the lowest on earth. Nigeria faced revenue issues that Buhari failed to address, and it also spent its revenues inefficiently. All in all, Buhari tried his best as a leader. A few successes include the second Niger Bridge, the train stations, and the assistance he provided to Dangote's refinery. I have never read a Sam Omatseye piece, but I must admit that he is gifted. He can write rap lyrics and is a good poet. I didn't find his article offensive, but humorous and creative. My favourite line in the article is "Criticising Buhari's time as both military and civilian leader, he said: “As military leader, he squeezed the economy in the name of enshrining a moral tone. In his time as civilian leader, he choked the economy and failed as a moral compass.” Condolences to the president's family. |
Everything happening to Nigeria's economy could have been predicted as far back as 2008. In 2012, it became obvious we were heading to hell, and some of us started shouting and screaming that change was necessary to avoid catastrophe. Unfortunately, we only moved from crony capitalism to feudalistic socialism. Summary. In 2008, low-income Americans were unable to pay their mortgages. These mortgages were backed by banks from several countries. A crisis of confidence occurred causing a global credit crunch. Two things are responsible for the growth of GDP. Productivity and credit. With lenders refusing to lend to new businesses, the global economy started to slow down. Interest rates dropped almost to zero per cent, but Lenders gave money to market speculators only, so Stock and commodity prices rose to ridiculous levels. Around June 2014, interest rates started rising, and commodity prices started falling as speculators shifted their funds from riskier commodities to treasury notes. Countries with commodity-driven economies, like Nigeria, South Africa, Venezuela and Russia, were exposed to the shocks the rest of the world had been facing since 2008. This is why there are so many anti-immigration sentiments and also why people like Trump are world leaders today. The global economy is messed up and maybe this way for an extended period. As earlier stated, two things lead to the growth of GDP: productivity and credit. Nigeria has never really been a credit-driven economy, nor has it been a highly productive one. We rely on productive countries to buy our raw materials to increase their productivity. Things have to change, or poverty will consume us. As Grandstar stated, the federal government must carry out painful restructuring. Any hope that oil will rise to over 100 dollars again is wishful thinking, and even if this were to occur, it probably would not be for an extended period. A focus on primary and secondary education and healthcare to improve productivity is necessary. Good luck to Nigeria. |
grandstar:Comments like this one seem so enlightening and educative, yet unfortunately, are wrong. Nigeria does not need to increase exports or consider reducing interest rates. As you rightly stated, economists do not control exchange rates and interest rates. The rates proposed by the CBN only act as a guide to the market, but in reality, the rates would naturally rise to that level. What is the Reason for high interest rates in Nigeria? The high importation of foreign goods. High interest rates make treasury bills/bonds attractive to foreigners, bringing in a high amount of foreign exchange. This foreign exchange is then substituted for the naira to allow for importation. If Nigeria imports less, it would not need as much foreign exchange, so it would not need such high interest rates. Obviously, to reduce imports, Nigeria has to increase its people's productivity. The best way is to increase investments in education and healthcare. Steve Babaeko, founder of X3M Records, said the Nigerian government did not invest in music or Nollywood, yet both industries are highly productive, increasing Nigeria's earnings and projecting a good image of Nigeria to the world. How much money did the US government spend on Google, Facebook, or Amazon? Zilch. With education, people will naturally find productive endeavours to pursue. The government does not need to focus on agriculture, science, and technology. Even electricity was not discovered through government intervention but by educated and creative people whose focus was on increasing their productivity. Even in infrastructure, there may be more efficient ways to solve our deficit, but without mass education, such solutions will never occur. Another way the Nigerian government can increase its GDP is by becoming more efficient in spending its earnings on crude oil sales. Just as a business can improve its profitability by reducing its costs, a country can also increase its GDP similarly. Ways to increase efficiency include: -further devaluation of the naira would reduce local demand for dollars, naturally bringing down interest rates. - Sack government workers. Most of them are unproductive, including myself, TBH. Interest rates will fall without having any adverse effect on the economy. It is actually brainless to continue paying people for no services. It is a moral hazard to cater to only 1 per cent of your population. Funds need to be spent on education and healthcare as earlier stated. - Increase taxation, specifically on the rich. Increased taxation reduces disposable income, lowering demand for foreign exchange and lowering exchange rates. I just reread Boyo's view. He will invariably float the naira, thus allowing market forces to determine its value. His view is better than what is currently being carried out, but monetary policies are not enough to turn this tide. I thought his point of view was not valid. |
Ovamboland:No sensible country puts social spending/welfare over investments in primary education. If you read the article, you would have seen that attainment of a percentage of a population being educated is a metric used to measure the development prospects. In Nigeria, the government focuses on helping people experiencing poverty. In these countries, the governments seek to invest in people with low incomes to be able to tax them in the future. I like Buhari, so do not take this comment personally. Buhari invests in his cattle because he sees them as his wealth. Our leaders need to see us as their wealth, not problems. |
Living conditions in Nigeria have always been worse than in Venezuela. Nigerians are used to suffering and can adapt to any condition. I can no longer find a fishhead in the market to buy for my cat as people have started purchasing it to eat. Economics is a social science and not a science that is based solely on numbers. Venezuelans expect more from their government, so they protest, and their rulers make hasty decisions, which are bad for their economy to maintain peace and orderliness. If you push a Nigerian to a wall, they pass through it. The people buying the fish head will still dress well, wear polished shoes, and smile, thanking God that their situation is better than that of their neighbours. This is Nigeria!!! |
SocialFinance:PDP met the minimum wage at 1500 and took it to 18500. Buhari has failed to increase the minimum wage even though the price of everyday items has gone up. This has pushed many into extreme poverty. |
To cushion the effect of property tax on homeowners. That you own a home doesn't mean you're rich. You're not planning to sell your home, of course. Most homes were built on mortgages and years of savings. There's no property tax in Dubai. People pay municipal taxes equal to 5% of the rental value of similar houses in their neighbourhood. Property tax has been argued over and over again to be wrong because owning a house doesn't mean you're as rich as the value of your home (except you're making money from the house, which usually isn't the case). Please name any prosperous nation that doesn't tax properties and state where these arguments have been carried out. People go out of money and go broke. They rely on the house they built when they have something going for them. They still have to pay their taxes. They can sell the house. This would improve Nigeria's estate management industry as many houses will be up for sale as in the US housing market. 90's star, MC Hammer, had to sell his house. Pensioners/retirees (people above 60 years) don't pay property tax because they're exempted. The question is, what happens to people who are out of jobs or without a regular income? Not all countries exempt senior citizens. Once they pass away, the new owner starts paying property taxes. People without regular income should cut their coats according to their size. You know you cannot afford to pay the property tax on a mansion, yet you can build one. They can SELL IT on OLX. Money is not Nigeria's problem. A clueless nation is clueless. Nigeria has no bearing, just disoriented. What we make is enough if we know what we're doing. ![]() We have one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios on earth. What are you talking about, Willis? Do you know how many unoccupied buildings there are in Abuja and Kaduna? More houses would be on the market if people had to pay property taxes. |
dadark:No one likes paying taxes. I have never met or heard of anyone who genuinely likes paying taxes. So why do other nations pay taxes? The same reason you brush your teeth or bathe in the morning. Without taxation, civilizations can never develop. It is a necessary evil. When the government collects taxes, the people are more willing to fight for their rights. The government uses taxes to invest in its people in their youth and then recoup the investments through taxation when their citizens start working. No one is naturally good. Without structures and institutions, humans are not much better than animals. |
Newboss:Why is there a 40 per cent discount? Nigeria has one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios on earth. Our government always complains about diversification, but governments primarily earn revenue through taxation. Our public healthcare system and education system are broken. Shouldn't taxes be used to develop Nigeria? Is the property tax even enforced? What is the penalty for defaulting? |
Newboss:Sorry, Mr Lecturer. Property tax* |
The same thing used to happen in England in the past. Every wealthy family built a castle to show their wealth. What made them change their ways? Estate taxes. |
Omooba77:My post supports the removal of subsidies. It is how subsidies are to be removed that my view differs from the popular view. The price of petrol in Nigeria is affected by the demand and supply of crude oil in the international market and the demand and supply of dollars within Nigeria. Petrol should be 210 Naira because of the fall in the value of the naira. My point is that through taxation, Nigeria can lower the price of petrol by reducing the demand for dollars. This invariably will eliminate subsidies without further impoverishing the masses. |
Omooba77 This is a great article with a lot of important information and an absolutely accurate conclusion. However, there are a few recommendations I do not agree with. Fuel subsidies should not be removed; we do not need to seek foreign investments. I know my view is unpopular, but please pay attention to me momentarily. Your article focuses on the fall of federal revenue and the hardship it has brought. It also focuses on the unsustainable path the federal government is taking. Is Nigeria's issue the fall of revenue or the resulting hardship? Must these two events go side-by-side? Nigeria's issues are the crazy levels of inequality between the rich and the poor. I think our lack of productivity is tied directly to the high rate of extreme poverty in this country. The government's biggest failure is not equitably using our oil revenues in ways that benefit all Nigerians. Nigeria runs a trickle-down economy where government workers and contractors take all the oil money. The rest of us earn our living by providing goods and services to these government workers. So basically, we get the crumbs that fall off their tables. What makes the matter worse is that Nigeria, like most nations, operates an open economy, so once an iPhone, Samsung, or any individual in Nigeria buys a Mercedes, we have invariably exchanged our crude oil for the purchased item, thus reducing the number of crumbs that can get to the ordinary person. In the past, our leaders exchanged our people (resources) for mirrors cause they found their images amusing. Today, they exchange our resources (oil) to satisfy their vanity. My issue with oil subsidy removal In general, two things affect the local fuel price: The price of crude oil and the value of the naira against the US dollar. Between 2006 and 2007, crude oil prices were 70 dollars, yet petrol was 75 naira per litre. The dollar was 130 something then as opposed to 360 now. Why has the naira fallen so severely? I guess more demand for iPhones, Samsungs and Benzs. Should a Barber, a Tailor, a Carpenter, a Plumber, a Farmer and an Electrician pay more for fuel because Nigerians want to use iPhones? SOLUTION As your article stated, increasing our VAT to the continent's average will help. Yearly progressive taxation on houses and cars will also go a long way. This is how to eliminate subsidies by raising the value of the naira through decreased demand for dollars rather than increasing the price of petrol. We already have the highest number of people living in extreme poverty, yet we have the wealthiest black woman in the world and the richest black man in Africa. Foreign investors do not have to be marketed to. Investors look for profitability with the smallest amount of risk. Rather than focusing on attracting them, we should make our country more productive by investing in our public education system. Investors will naturally troop in when we produce our iPhones and live in peace and harmony. We need to look inward. Our people are more critical than mirrors and Benzs. |
Jpphilips My guy, no informed person is saying Buhari caused this mess. Even if Jonathan had saved money, that money would have served as a shock absorber and not a solution to this economic crisis. Challenging policy changes need to be made to improve this country, and for 4 years, Buhari has done nothing to move this nation forward. From your write-up, you seem to deceptively imply that this crisis is over when, in reality, Nigeria is profoundly indebted and may start selling national assets to stay afloat. What exactly do you want? Progress for your country or APC winning this election? Buhari's relaxed attitude towards his re-election is the same attitude he has shown towards managing our economy. (One week to elections, and you start YouTube ads. You aren't serious about winning.) You are an intelligent man. You should only do this if you benefit from Buhari and are loyal. You should take a non-partisan stand in the election and let the chips fall wherever possible. Goodluck |
. It is not until you marry your fiance that you realise she's not wife material. The signs were already there from the word go. 