₦airaland Forum

Dear NL mods, a lot of analysis are usually biased from major candidates camp. This is an independent, objective and fair assessment of each candidate. This thread is very educative. Please push to frontpage

Dominique
Lalasticla
Seun
justwise
nlfpmod
Odewaleadesoye

Nigeria at the crossroads: Impartial Analysis of the Leading Candidates at the Polls

“2023 election is a make or mar election for Nigeria” - Atedo Peterside.

The upcoming General Election is shaping up to be one of the most exciting and existential elections
in Nigeria’s political history. Transparently speaking, every election cycle is typically billed as the
most important or crucial by candidates, but this time around, it truly seems the country is on a
knife-edge.

For the first time, we have competitive three horse race in which anyone of the contenders can win.
Nigerians have typically been served in the past with a choice of lesser of two evils: Jonathan v
Buhari (2015), Buhari v Atiku (2019). However this time around, it does seem voters are spoilt for
choice and would be making a more positive statement with their vote. For many, this could be a
watershed moment where Nigerians look back on as pivotal in the Nation’s history.

Let’s analyse the 3 leading gladiators in this race:

1- Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC)
Former Lagos governor and long-time leader of the opposition to the PDP-led FG from 1999 to 2015
is now running for the top job. He was a key player (if not the most important player) in ensuring the
opposition parties coalesced around the idea of new mega party (APC) to dislodge the seemingly
indomitable PDP in 2013/14. That merger led to APC which heralded President Buhari in 2015.
According to Tinubu, “If not for me that stood behind Buhari, he wouldn’t have become the
President. He tried the first time, he failed. The second time, he failed. The third, he failed.”
Fast forward to today, Buhari is all but a failed president battling with so many challenges: insecurity
and banditry, economic mismanagement, petrol and cash scarcity amongst others. The outlook is so
bleak, it seems Tinubu isn’t interested in running on Buhari’s legacy but rather distancing himself
from several of the president’s policies, and instead offering an alternative to the status quo. In plain
terms, there’s no continuity candidate in this election. Apparently though, that’s an effort in futility
according to Lai Mohammed, Minister of information and culture. “They are inseparable (Buhari’s
scorecard and Tinubu’s presidential bid). It is one thing if Asiwaju Bola Tinubu was contesting on an
independent platform, which is not available. It is a different thing if he is coming in from another
party, say Labour, then he can base his campaign on what he is going to do. But if your party has
spent eight years in power and you cannot tell me what they have done, why should I vote for you?”
he said.

Pros
- Lagos Track Record: The self-style city boy is offering Nigeria the visionary leadership
template he deployed in Lagos State from 1999 to date. Revenues grew from N1.2 billion in
1999 to N45 billion (2021) monthly. He also instituted a lot of reforms in areas of security,
judiciary, transport etc. that other states have tried to replicate.
- Developing Talent: Another testament to Jagaban’s leadership style is his ability to spot
talent. Fashola, Ambode, Sanwo-Olu, Osinbajo just to mention a few, would not be on the
political landscape today if not for Tinubu’s influence.

Cons
- Old Order: Asides the legitimate questions surrounding his age and mental acuity, Tinubu is
very much part of the old political order. Since the return of democracy, he has been
involved in state governance since 1999 to 2007, and some will argue via proxies post 2007.

This does not augur well for his candidacy in a change election.

- Controversy & Corruption Allegations: Tinubu has been at the centre of several allegations
including details about his birth and background shrouded in secrecy. There have been
questions raised about his source of wealth and how he acquired a lot of choice properties
in Lagos during his reign, including allegations of fraud via Alpha Beta Consulting. He is also
one of the beneficiaries of the unpopular life pension for ex-governors and their deputies.

- Muslim/Muslim ticket: On one hand, APC is asking for power to be rotated from North to
South in the interest of equity, fairness and national unity. On the other hand, APC totally
ignores the equally important if not more important issue of religious sensitivities. It is
arguably far more crucial for Christians (in both North and South) to have a Christian on the
ticket than a power shift from a Northerner to a Southerner.

2- Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (PDP)
Atiku Abubakar is not a newcomer in the political arena. Former Vice President to Obasanjo in 1999
to 2007, and perennial presidential candidate since 1993. Atiku and PDP have positioned themselves
as the ‘safe choice’. He is experienced, calm, a known political entity.

Pros
- Experience: Supporters of the former VP claim he has the requisite experience to be
President having served under President Obasanjo. They point to the handling of the
National Economic Council as well as his leadership of the National Council on Privatization
as giving him the much-needed breadth and depth to pilot Nigeria’s affairs.
- Established Structure: the PDP has been in power for 16 out of 24 years since 1999. It has a
strong presence in every single ward and LGA in Nigeria, hence come election day, you can
trust the rank-and-file members to do the party’s bidding.
- Pro-private sector: Atiku has been very big on the idea of a Private-sector driven economy.
He has advocated for full privatization of the NNPC and other national assets. A lot of
analysts believe government should play a very limited role in running business and only
play a regulatory role. In the famous words of Will Rogers, ‘The business of government is to
keep the government out of business’. Atiku’s stance has earned him the nickname ‘Mr
Privatize’ from Tinubu. “My people, you cannot entrust your future or that of our nation to
Mr. Sell Everything Atiku...” Tinubu said.

Cons
- PDP baggage: Atiku says he has the best plan to rescue Nigeria and PDP is the safe
alternative. The only problem is most Nigerians still remember the PDP years and like
Tinubu, Atiku is also part of the old order. Amidst all the achievements PDP want the voters
to reminiscence over (consistent GDP growth, single digit inflation, stable exchange rate,

record levels of FDI, lower employment etc.), PDP also grappled with issues of wanton
corruption, less than credible elections, executive abuse of power, lack of internal
democracy etc. It was the misrule by PDP that opened the door to APC, with Atiku himself
being one of the crusaders in 2015.

- Corruption: Atiku has been embroiled in corruption allegations from his time in government.
From Obasanjo to the most recent SPV leak tape. There were also allegations Atiku bribed
party delegates to clinch the PDP ticket, which is not uncommon in the Nigeria political
space. They were same allegations in 2015, when then General Muhammad Buhari, said he
had no dollars to offer APC delegates. Atiku’s image is one that is shrouded in corruption and
a lot of voters are looking for an anti-corruption candidate.

- Power Shift: President Buhari is rounding up his 8 years in Government. A lot of political
commentators have argued that power must rotate to the South to calm the tensions in the
country. This was the ostensible reason the APC Northern Governors zoned the party’s ticket
to the south, in the interest of national unity. Atiku, a Northern Muslim, is seeking to take
over from Buhari, which many have said would be unfair. It is for this reason as well as APC

Muslim/Muslim ticket that the Vice-presidential candidate of Labour Party, Datti Baba-
Ahmed said ‘...2 of the 3 leading candidates have “misconfigured themselves...and fallen out

of alignment with the dictates of winning elections in Nigeria.”


3- Peter Obi (LP)
Step in former Governor of Anambra, Mr Peter Obi. Since declaring for president 12 months ago, he
has energised the political space with his #Obidient movement. He is the youngest of the front three
contenders and resonates mostly with the youth.

Pros
- Character: One of the major reasons Peter Obi is generating a lot of buzz and challenging the
two main political parties in barely 11 months is because he is viewed as authentic. For many
years, he has advocated for a slimmed-down, frugal government, free from the
extravagance and largesse associated with political elites. He rejected plots of land and
generous pensions as ex-governor of Anambra state. He’s a departure from the bigmanism
culture in Nigeria and is often seen flying commercial flights and carrying his own bag. He
shuns the trappings of political office and opts for a more simple, humble and pragmatic
approach. Many Nigerians (especially the youth) identify with him and believe he’s not your
everyday politician.

- Fiscal Discipline: Just like in his private life, Peter Obi’s public record portrays him as a
prudent administrator. He oversaw Anambra’s finances with unmatched discipline. He is
probably the only governor who left power without any loans or millions of dollars in the
coffers. In a political climate, where most governors (and FG) borrow to almost
unsustainable levels of debt, Peter Obi has shown great restraint and delayed gratification
which he believes is the bedrock for economic development (capital formation).

- Agility: At 61, Peter Obi is the youngest of the three main contenders. For a country that was
almost steeped into political crisis due to the number of overseas medical trips embarked on
by President Buhari (and late President Yar’udua), Peter Obi seems the closest to matching
the energy of the teeming youths in the country. While age is no yardstick for leadership, it’s
worth considering the physical and mental strength of a candidate to avoid a repeat of
recent political history in Nigeria.


Cons
- Structureless: Peter Obi is running on the Labour Party platform, but in truth, his campaign
is the closest, we have ever been to a viable independent candidate in Nigeria. Defecting
from the PDP last year just before their presidential primaries, Peter Obi got the Labour
Party ticket to actualise the dream. Labour Party neither has a sitting governor nor National
Assembly member (discounting defections from candidates who lost primaries). In a country
where elections are largely local (operation deliver your ward/LGA/State) and are a test of
political structure and sagacity, it remains to be seen how Peter Obi will overcome this giant
hurdle. Also linked to the above is the lack of credible Labour Party National Assembly
candidates, to help win elections and support an Obi presidency for him to push through his
legislative agenda or stave off the threat of an impeachment.

- Lack of Experience: According to his opponents, leading a country as diverse and complex as
Nigeria is a different ball game compared to being a state governor. From insecurity to the
economy to managing multiple cross-purpose interest groups and cabals, some have argued
the role is too big for the former governor of Anambra state. According to Governor Godwin
Obaseki of Edo State, Peter Obi is “a very good man” but lacks the necessary experience to
lead Nigeria.

- Lack of Antecedents: Opponents of Peter Obi will say the job of a governor or President is
not to save money alone. A leader is meant to offer transformational change. They will point
to Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) remaining virtually unchanged in his 8yrs in office,
lack of infrastructure etc. According to Gov Soludo, Obi’s investments are almost worthless
and poverty rates increased. Gov. Obi responds by saying he improved education in
Anambra from #26 to #1 and ranked #1 in MDG across all 36 states. However, it must be said
that Anambra (albeit with her meagre resources) is still no “El dorado” today.

An empirical attempt at choosing the best candidate in these elections can be quite daunting. It may
involve researching the candidates, studying their manifestos, examining the party platforms,
evaluating candidate’s character and experiences, and considering principles etc. In the end,
choosing the best candidate is a personal decision, and comes down to the voters. Ideally, one
should base their decision on the verifiable information available to them and your own values and
priorities.

President Buhari has promised a free and fair election and from all indications is working towards
ensuring the poll is reflective of the will of the Nigerian people. May the best man win!

Triplo3[i][/i] is a Political Analyst and writes from the United Kingdom.

ukay2:
For CASH LISA account holders, do not forget to get the £4,000 into it to get the free 25% ((£1,000) by end of tax year in 5th April 2023. This could be used to deposit for your first mortgage house. Husband and wife less than 40 years could open this account and save upto £10,000 each tax year until both reach 50 years when you cannot save money in the LISA account.


For STOCK & SHARES ISA account holders, do not forget to max out the £20,000 allowance per tax year, 5th April, 2023. When you max out the £20k in stocks and shares ISA account, you can keep putting more funds in your General Investment Account.

There are so many stocks that are quite cheap in NYSE...you can cherry pick good dividend paying stocks with dividend yields upto 6-8%.

Remember that profits from stocks and share lSA account and dividend payments from your stocks and shares ISA account are not TAXABLE....tax man doesn't look into these earnings

Slow and steady win in the market....

HAPPY 2023.....

Please can you explain the bolded? A couple can earn 2K from 8K combined savings per tax year. How can this be ramped up to 10k quoted? Am I missing something?

canadaishome:
Abeg anyone with American express referral link?

Want a relative in the UK to apply to build credit

Here you go:

https://americanexpress.com/en-gb/referral/uGOCHO8846?CPID=999999554

JanegirlN:
Compliments of the season everyone. So I passed my driving test yesterday with 3 minors. I remember when I came here to complain some months back about my instructor (whom I did change) and driving in general.lol.
I had never driven before, had between[b] 35- 40 hours [/b]and passed first time. I'm not a motivational speaker or anything but if I can drive and pass the test, Anybody can! My family still can't believe I passed. They couldn't even believe I was learning cos I can fear for Africa.

Can someone pass without instructor? I have been driving for a few months with international licence. Getting my provisional licence next week. I watch DGN on Youtube. Must I hire an instructor? Can I save that cost? thank you.

JaySterling:
Guys please advise me! This is urgent

I am coming to the UK in a few weeks

I have some dollars in cash. Please can I change them to pounds in the UK, or I should just change them here in Nigeria before I travel ?

Please which one would be better for me in terms of rate ?

Change with Aboki in Nigeria. it is usually better than fx rates in UK. You can google post office etc. to check the rates

Mamatukwas:
UKVI said they are looking to completely phase out physical BRP’s by December 2024. So I think any issuance that’s seen as unnecessary is being dropped. I don’t think you’ll have issues if you have official correspondence to that effect.

See the email I got from Home Office (Decision mail) attached.

Please why am I the first person being told to rely on Gov website to proof my status. Never heard of it from family and friends or on the forum.

Can anyone please confirm if they've been in my shoes please?

I'm about to book the foreign trip, I don't want issues having to return back to UK.

Thanks ahead.

koonbey:
1. No. They can hold skilled worker visas independently.
2. Yes. The employer does not have any responsibility over a skilled worker's dependents except perhaps in the initial stage of saying they'd provide upkeep for the first month or so. Once you have the skilled worker visa, adding dependents or whatever other modification is between you and home office.

So the answer can safely be no.

The overarching issue to bear in mind though is with regard to counting toward ILR, if you're intending to switch back and forth between visa types you should check the rules.

From Home Office -

"Your partner can include time they’ve spent as your dependant on another visa to count towards the continuous years they need to qualify. They cannot count any time spent on their own visa (not as your dependant)." Read more here - https://www.gov.uk/indefinite-leave-to-remain-tier-2-t2-skilled-worker-visa/family-members

3. A few days. You might even get it delivered before the email telling you to expect it comes in.

Over 10 working days and no BRP sent via post. Plus no email saying they will send it. Called UKVI today and they said I won't get a new BRP, because I used the app during my application, so my picture was captured etc. Please does anyone have this experience of updating their visa from student to skilled worker dependent visa and then no new BRP? Instead just a status update online. Can I travel out and return to UK without a valid BRP? Thanks ahead

koonbey:
1. No. They can hold skilled worker visas independently.
2. Yes. The employer does not have any responsibility over a skilled worker's dependents except perhaps in the initial stage of saying they'd provide upkeep for the first month or so. Once you have the skilled worker visa, adding dependents or whatever other modification is between you and home office.

So the answer can safely be no.

The overarching issue to bear in mind though is with regard to counting toward ILR, if you're intending to switch back and forth between visa types you should check the rules.


From Home Office -

"Your partner can include time they’ve spent as your dependant on another visa to count towards the continuous years they need to qualify. They cannot count any time spent on their own visa (not as your dependant)." Read more here - https://www.gov.uk/indefinite-leave-to-remain-tier-2-t2-skilled-worker-visa/family-members

3. A few days. You might even get it delivered before the email telling you to expect it comes in.

Thank you so much.

Hi House,
Let me paint a real-life scenario:

A) Husband and wife.
Wife got a sponsored job with NHS in June. Husband is now dependant in December.
Husband now has a sponsored job in Dec, and the employer is asking if he has any dependants?
If he answers yes, does it mean wife will have to lose NHS sponsorship n be on dependant visa with him?
If he answers no, can he add his wife later in the future?

B) When your visa status change, how long from email to when you receive your new BRP? Reason I ask is because of the below line in the successful email from Home Office (no mention of your BRP is coming in the post in 3 - 5 days etc.). Also read online that BRP will phased out 1st Jan 2025.

Amarathripple0:
If you are currently in Nigeria, log on to indeed.co.uk , glassdoor.co.uk , uk.linkedin.com Search for Healthcare assistant tier 2 sponsorship, care coordinator tier 2 sponsorship or care assistant tier 2 sponsorship and then filter your search on the "date posted" section to 24hours post, Last day posts and Past 24hours post respectively then apply for these positions. This way, you’ll be applying to recent openings and your application will be one of the first and won’t get lost in the mix. Apply to as many companies as possible on a daily basis.
Also, if you can, search for some of these care companies online and cold call them to ask if they have any openings.

I second your approach. I have had great success using this method as well. I will add you can just search the type of jobs you want on google and it will open you up to even more platforms. Kudos!

CowbellY:
You'd be surprised 2 hours might not be enough in Heathrow even. Especially that Terminal 4. But I don't expect so many people to be coming into the UK in December. Should be easy.

You are right! Took me over 2hrs back in June (peak period). Just jejely waiting on the queue till my turn. Although I heard some people use sick/elderly/wheelchair priority to jump queue lol