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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail (9312 Views)
I See APC And CPC Splitting / All Progressive Congress (APC) Party: ANPP, CPC, ACN And APGA Finally Merged / ACN And CPC Have Failed To Reach An Agreement (2) (3) (4)
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Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by danjohn: 5:43pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
jmaine: I agree with you that there are complex undertones that sway voters. Remember that Ribadu's candidacy was severely damaged by the failure of the alliance talks to be fruitful. In addition, ACN did not mobilize voters for Ribadu on Election Day. I know that for a fact. If you think that Jonathan is still as popular in the SW as he was in 2011, then a big surprise is awaiting you. People were hoodwinked, they believed in Jonathan's tale of having no shoes. In politics perception is important. Right now, when it comes to Presidential politics, people view the opposition as midgets next to an elephant. A merger will help close that perception gap. Once the gap is closed the opposition will be able to attract more votes. Yes, SW voted Jonathan for President but they elected ACN governors. The NW and NE voted for Buhari for President, but they voted for PDP governors as well. What I am saying is that if ACN and CPC come together, they have a realistic chance of making inroads in 18 states. They have proven that they have some level of support in those states. An alliance can help solidify that support. The Southwest is disappointed with Jonathan. Jonathan will probably lose the SW in 2015. However, it does not mean that he will lose the Presidency. All Jonathan needs is to win the SE, SS, and NC and hold steady at 25 - 30% in the NW and WE as he did in 2011. Even if he loses the SW, there are enough Igbos and Niger Delta folks in the SW to give him 35 - 40%. After all is said and done, the most realistic outcome of the alliance is a very respectable second place finish in the Presidential election (45% and above), more governors and legislators for the opposition, and momentum to have a very realistic chance of winning the Presidency in 2019. Notwithstanding, anything can still happen. A Fashola candidacy for President could make GEJ pee in his pants. 1 Like |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by size38: 5:51pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
I dont see the merger working because of the greed in their leaders. Buhari &his muslim brothers are so desperate for power to return back to north. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by Dsage1: 5:57pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
Esss: Whats the point?!! Wether they call themselves CCC, ACC or CPN, the first problem that all the opposition have is ethinic divide.. The only Uniting political Party in Nigeria till tomorrow remains the PDP. From the North to the South. You cant call them an Igbo Party like APGA, cant call them an Yoruba Party like ACN (& AD), Cant call them a Cattlfucking Party like CPC... You are example of gullible and anti-developed person I ever know. So,a party that've been ruling us for the past 13years with little or no concrete development is now a good/solid party to you? What you typed here were not but stupid analysis. Because a party have a good structure and solid foundation,we should continue to vote them into power. I pity your so called SS/SE people. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by Fathai(m): 5:59pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
U are blesssed my broda....good point danjohn: |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by bakila: 6:07pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
Mekusnwa: ochi ato gbuo m. I'm laughing in Igbo. Buhari and co are just a bunch of clowns. You are forming a party around Atiku, Tinubu, El Rufai & Bakare and expect the party to stand. LWKMD. Talk about a marriage between our corrupt icons and the politically naive. Someone please appoint that chap a coordinator for the SS OR SE. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by Nobody: 6:09pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
D sage: I wish that Nigeria's problems are really 13 years old. In 2014, our problem will be 100 years old. It all started in 1914 when Lord Luggard the "political scientist" went to his "lab" to mix the non-mixable and mistakenly produced Nigeria. What is our National ideology? Can the man from Borno and the man from Anambra ever sit down and agree on a common vision? Nigeria is so ethnically and religiously divided that the parties are nothing but mere acronyms. Besides, I am yet to see the front line politicians with any form of National concepts and national ideology. Nigeria is not a nation. You guys can hope against hope but just know that it doesn't matter who becomes the head of state, progress will still be slow. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by kutchs: 6:15pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
D sage:Save ur concern for urselves slave boys. I dont really care whether ur alliance works or not after all you have been known together since the civil war even when they make u promises and fail them. What do I care if you serve Buhari and his Hausa-Fulani lords all ur life. Go ahead Faruk and Fani Kayode will be alive to tell us the behind-the-scene promises and betrayals. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by greaterlove(m): 6:16pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
bjdon: Even if the merger works, AC-CPC will fail in the Presedential election if anyone other than Fashola is presented as the Presidential candidate. I think Fashola will be able to win votes in the SE/SS added to the SW and NW that should secure victory. If either Tinubu or Osama bin Buhari is the candidate, then GEJ is secured a second term. El Rufai is a joke who would not even win his state, and the less said about the loud mouth pastor the better. like you said the candidate they will front for the presidency matters, but i still feel they should look beyond 2015 too, let them do a lot of grassroot campaign to win more seat in the house in 2015, i bet u if the opposition can get even 1/2 of the seats in the house then getting the presidency will be easier, we still do not know the power of the national assembly, i dont know why all opposition parties are so interested in the presidency first and the thirst for that seat will undo them. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by jmaine: 6:20pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
danjohn: wrong again bruv, GEJ victory was independent of Ribadu misfortune at the hands of ACN A quick view of the polls showed that the hotly contested gubernatorial poll showed similar trend with the presidential poll, And i wan't to believe that the ACN equally mobilized voters for their victorious candidates . . .now enjoying their loot . . . danjohn: I Agree his popularity has reduced, especially after the fuel subsidy removal wahala, but he still has 3 more years to win it back GEJ victory was mainly spurred on by the hatred and suspicion of Buhari and not the "I had no shoes" mantra If Buhari shows his face again . .GEJ will carry the day in a more swift fashion than he did last time .. . danjohn: I quite agree with you here . .you did a very good job capturing the likely twist of events and scenarios danjohn: As far as Fashola has Tinubu large shadow hovering all over him . . .he is an easy target for political slander annihilation . . . GEJ propaganda machines will drown him easily based on the above That said, GEJ has 3 more years to sway all tides to himself . .Time is of essence here . . |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by sbeezy8: 6:26pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
To tell the truth- ACN is really comfortable with GEJ- I dont see them trying "hard" or really politicking to unseat him. If Anything I see CPC as the angry one. ACN is just enjoying the presidency from what I can see. Theres no unseating president Dumbluck, of what benefit would it do the ACN? ACN politicians themselves would rather BADLUCK over any northerner, they are just being political with it. ALL these CPC-ACN talks are jargons. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by sbeezy8: 6:35pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
danjohn: you make no sense. to think that non SW living will in the SW is around 30-40% is just plain.... D.UMB. If Igbos and Niger deltans are 35%-40 of the SW, WHILE MIDDLE belter/northerners to my eyes have more presence than both groups- WHERE ARE THE ACTUAL SW people did they jump in the OCEAN? reckless statements. DUMBLUCK wont lose SW, what makes SW different from SE or SS, HES disappointing to the whole nation not just the SW. if anything MAJORITY OF SW people will not even care about 2015- the remaining will vote for GEJ as they did in 2011. ur average SW person is indifferent for the most part but knows- voting for buhari or any candidate from the north over Dumbluck is asinine. what does that benefit the SW. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by locdog(m): 6:37pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
Esss: Whats the point?!! Wether they call themselves CCC, ACC or CPN, the first problem that all the opposition have is ethinic divide.. The only Uniting political Party in Nigeria till tomorrow remains the PDP. From the North to the South. You cant call them an Igbo Party like APGA, cant call them an Yoruba Party like ACN (& AD), Cant call them a Cattlfucking Party like CPC...fool majority of sw vote will go to acn |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by pcicero(m): 6:44pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
noblezone: Why can't people reason like this? Thanks for your insightful thoughts. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by danjohn: 6:51pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
sbeezy8: There is a large non-Yoruba population in Lagos. Outside of Lagos the SW is predominantly Yoruba. The larger point I was making was that even if Jonathan loses the SW, he will still get btwn 30 and 40% because of ethnic and religous reasons. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by Dsage1: 7:01pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
noblezone: I'm quite agree with you that Nigeria is so ethnically and religiously divided and that,our problem started with the amalgamation of Jan 1914 by Lugard. But on a more serious note, PDP has failed Nigerians since inception of democracy in 1999. Therefore,a series of changes must occur in 2015. And who are those to effect such a change is what I don't know at least for now. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by sbeezy8: 7:07pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
Too many childish comments- Nigerian on nairaland think like children. danjohn: Lagos is one state so how does that constitute as losing the SW,? No matter how people migrate to Lagos the voting pattern will still be the same as the rest of the region there are Large non-Hausas in Kaduna, Kano, Plateau. All the religous ethnic jargons you are talking bout does not apply to the SW in voting terms. GEJ is winning the SW by DEFAULT like last election. Losing an area in elections, is due to people voting [b]against [/b]a candidate, potential votes dont matter in Nigeria. If there is no candidate better than Badluck then best believe Badluck is winning SW. Middle belt as a region isnt anymore/less likely to vote for Badluck than the SW- if anything these two regions are indifferent and vote GEJ by default. But should a candidate such as David mark or and Middle belter go against GEJ FOR PRESIDENCY. GEJ is losing in the middle belt. Same with South East should there only be two presidential candidates one from the Southeast and his more qualified then GEJ is not winning that region. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by Ufeolorun(m): 7:16pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
jonathan popular in the SW His win was an ACN/Jonathan arrangee- Money deals,lowering pdp gubernatorial resistance in Ogun and Oyo.These were more important to Acn than a long shot presidential candidate(Ribadu),now that more ground has been conceded to acn and they are stronger for it,Jonathan has nothing really to offer them any more and that's why I think they would be more serious about this merger or alliance. Elrufai and Buhari would have to do a lot of work to translate their popularity to more governors and votes-Jonathan winning Gombe/Adamawa without a trade off with cpc was an insult(there was definitely a trade off for every SW states he won) The resistance to pdp in 2015 will be strong,direct and recalibrating, all in all the politicians will benefit most. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by sbeezy8: 7:20pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
Ufeolorun: jonathan popular in the SW His win was an ACN/Jonathan arrangee- Money deals,lowering pdp gubernatorial resistance in Ogun and Oyo.These were more important to Acn than a long shot presidential candidate(Ribadu),now that more ground has been conceded to acn and they are stronger for it,Jonathan has nothing really to offer them any more and that's why I think they would be more serious about this merger or alliance. GEJ in exchange to who? Ribadu/ Buhari? |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by ikpoba1: 7:42pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
THERE ARE ONLY TWO NATIONAL POLITICAL PARTIES IN NIGERIA: THEY ARE ANPP AND PDP. OTHERS ARE TRIBAL/ETHNIC ASSOCIATIONS AND CANNOT HOLD IN MODERN NIGERIA. IS IT CPC? APGA? ACN? OR WHAT? IN OTHER DEVELOPED COUNTRY, THERE IS NOTHING LIKE YORUBA PARTY, IBO PARTY OR HOUSA PARTY. EVERY PARTY IS UNIFYING. YOU GUYS SHOULD WAKE UP |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by Ufeolorun(m): 7:47pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
sbeezy8: Let me try,I mean Jonathan had to play ball with Tinubu for the soft landing he got in Lagos and other SW states.Ribadu could not have won the presidency that's why they tried leveraging on Buharis popularity in the north to help him but that didnt work. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by jmaine: 7:51pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
Ufeolorun: jonathan popular in the SW His win was an ACN/Jonathan arrangee- Money deals,lowering pdp gubernatorial resistance in Ogun and Oyo.These were more important to Acn than a long shot presidential candidate(Ribadu),now that more ground has been conceded to acn and they are stronger for it,Jonathan has nothing really to offer them any more and that's why I think they would be more serious about this merger or alliance. Hilarious . .it will do you much good to always keep quiet . . . clues & Home work ====> Go do a lil comparison between the Gubernatorial and Presidential, pay attention to their similarity . . . . . then come back and debate |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by Ufeolorun(m): 7:52pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
ikpoba_1: THERE ARE ONLY TWO NATIONAL POLITICAL PARTIES IN NIGERIA: THEY ARE ANPP AND PDP. OTHERS ARE TRIBAL/ETHNIC ASSOCIATIONS AND CANNOT HOLD IN MODERN NIGERIA. IS IT CPC? APGA? ACN? OR WHAT? IN OTHER DEVELOPED COUNTRY, THERE IS NOTHING LIKE YORUBA PARTY, IBO PARTY OR HOUSA PARTY. EVERY PARTY IS UNIFYING. YOU GUYS SHOULD WAKE UP Comparing cpc or apga with Acn .Lagos is worth more than 5 Nigerian states.Parties carve a niche for themselves. 2 Likes |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by Boyoorisha: 7:54pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
Esss:Talk is cheap! Prove your point by naming what PDP government has achieved for the past 13yrs. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by Boyoorisha: 7:55pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
Esss:Talk is cheap! Prove your point by naming what PDP government has achieved in the past 13yrs. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by Ufeolorun(m): 7:58pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
jmaine:I don't have time for long winded faffs, am still very young and busy but 1 pdp is a bad brand where i come from and 2 Jonathan never had any political capital and was never a compelling candidate hence his win (especially in Lagos and Ekiti)was a free pass,no need for any soggy guber. or presidential analysis. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by kaeto(m): 8:05pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
bjdon: Even if the merger works, AC-CPC will fail in the Presedential election if anyone other than Fashola is presented as the Presidential candidate. I think Fashola will be able to win votes in the SE/SS added to the SW and NW that should secure victory. If either Tinubu or Osama bin Buhari is the candidate, then GEJ is secured a second term. El Rufai is a joke who would not even win his state, and the less said about the loud mouth pastor the better.useless and very daft analysis, fashola gini , win where, you think he is known here, you better wake up cos obj's yoruba mess is not yet cleared and you think the north would sniff the slight of another yoruba president before them, you people reason like pigs,no wonder you are so unproductive and envy successful tribes with name calling and calumny. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by jmaine: 8:07pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
Ufeolorun: How did the bolded part make any sense to you . .or even remotely support your Tinubu - GEJ election exchange tripe Make sure you always keep quiet if you don't have anything meaningful to say or add |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by Ufeolorun(m): 8:24pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
jmaine:Well it makes sense to me cos i dont have a laptop assigned to me,you get me? No political capital,not compelling = needed help from Tinubu About being quiet, OK. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by EkoIle1: 8:29pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
So your re..tarded opinion about what they are going to name the party is the reason why they are going to fail? Is the election tomorrow or 2015? Why is nl so full of low low thinkers? |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by Deprofessional(m): 8:33pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
If ACN/CPC ever thinks of wrestling power from PDP, they better field either S Easterner or a middle belterner as its presidential flag bearer. Boko haram has indeed reduced chances of a core northerner winning presidential election in nigeria. Never in SE, MB or SS. |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by jmaine: 8:37pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
Ufeolorun: Well it makes sense to me cos i dont have a laptop assigned to me,you get me? Just another clue to a member of the Fairly used Sendo -X, MTN opera cheat's crew ====> The percentage of the total vote cast and the voter's apathy towards both the Presidential and gubernatorial was marginally the same . . A clear indication that those who chose to reject Buhari by voting in GEJ also chose to reject other PDP non performers for the ACN flag bearers . . . GEJ trounced all in the SW due to the immense goodwill he had and not any pact Only desperate losers hold unto that for relevance . . . The rejection of Buhari was GEJ gain and nothing more . . . |
Re: Reasons Why ACN And CPC Alliance Will Fail by danjohn: 8:50pm On Aug 15, 2012 |
Ufeolorun: jonathan popular in the SW His win was an ACN/Jonathan arrangee- Money deals,lowering pdp gubernatorial resistance in Ogun and Oyo.These were more important to Acn than a long shot presidential candidate(Ribadu),now that more ground has been conceded to acn and they are stronger for it,Jonathan has nothing really to offer them any more and that's why I think they would be more serious about this merger or alliance. Jonathan did not win in Gombe State. Buhari won 60% and Jonathan won 38%. From anecdotal evidence, I hear that Adamawa is almost 48% Christian. GEJ supposed to win a state like Adamawa. |
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