Nigeria: Economy Projected to Overtake UK, France by 2050


Business Europe and Africa
BY ZAKARIYYA ADARAMOLA, 11 OCTOBER 2012



With the growth rate of 7.5 per cent per annum and all other things being equal, Nigeria's economy may overtake those of the United Kingdom and France by 2050, a UK-based Nigerian lecturer, Dr. Gbenga Oduntan has said.

Dr. Oduntan, who lectures at Kent University, UK, spoke yesterday in Abuja at a special lecture commemorating this year's World Space Week put together in Nigeria by the National Space Research Development Agency (NASRDA).

He said with the speed with which the Nigerian economy is cruising, it is a matter of time before it overtakes UK which is going at a snail speed of 0.3 per annum, adding that the statistics from UK and other European scholars (economists) also suggested that Nigeria is progressing economically faster than most Western economies.

"Those that continually say most Nigerians live below $1 per day may not be right because majority of (poor) Nigerians still recharge their phones with at least N100 airtime almost on a daily basis or at least once in a week," the don said.

"I don't think someone who lives below $1 per day would be able to eat and still recharge his phone. That statistic is implausible," he said.

According to him, Nigeria's market is huge for almost everything and that make its economic growth unstoppable.

"The country also has a very large young population more than the UK and France and that make its prospect for growth even brighter," said Dr Oduntan.

The don, who is an expert in space technology, development and law, also said if the country's policy makers could use the 'Leapfrog Theory' by investing heavily on outer space activities, ICT and science, the country would be at a par with the Asian Tigers in just a few years time. He said the $20 million Nigeria spends on space technology might be too small because some countries invest about $200 billion on it.


http://allafrica.com/stories/201210110603.html

OMG 2050? too far to wait, why not 2013?

Economic growth without industralisation is like eating chips without ketchup and salt, or cereal without milk...

Nigeria's economic growth is just a bubble...

Plain nonsense, no electricity, no transportation network, comatose educational institutions etc. That idiotic lecturer should be investigated for graft cos i suspect he is gaining something from those millions of dollars being spent on that useless space projects.

shymexx: Economic growth without industralisation is like eating chips without ketchup and salt, or cereal without milk...

Nigeria's economic growth is just a bubble...

Well said. China is growing, the reasons are not far fetched.
Japan is sliding, the reasons are quite obvious.
Germany being economic powerhouse of Europe has industrialization to thank. Even America is shouting bring back the industries.

Okonjo Iweala, in coming months, will soon be spewing her usual trash of economic growth at 7%. Aganga was said to have created 3million jobs alone in 2011. In December, the figures will have risen to 5millions, yet there is nothing on ground. Economic growth that does not match reality is not just a bubble but a criminal deceit.

Jokers.

The question i will like to ask is, as ours will be growing would theirs be put on hold or what?

38 years from now,stil a long way to go.

azeeza: 38 years from now,stil a long way to go.

Thank you very much. Some people type before thinking, unlike yourself. Of course the forecast is based on current growth rates which, if sustained at this pace, will reach the predicted outcome. It's a very empirical prediction made by a scholar, using valid, current statistics and data. Unlike these half-baked elements here for whom 'research' is like a swear word.

9ja_I_hail: The question i will like to ask is, as ours will be growing would theirs be put on hold or what?

I've seen projections that place the annual GDP growth rates of these western countries at 0.3 to 2% tops for the next 30 years. Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya etc on the other hand, are growing at 7 to 10%. Some studies suggest that if Nigeria (GDP growth rate 7.5% pa) achieves its power generation targets, it's annual GDP growth rate would hit 12%, a figure normally associated with the Asian Tiger Economies at their industrial take-off peak.

Among the reasons usually proffered by international economists for the fast-paced economic growth in Africa is better economic management by African governments.

There's growing evidence that many African govts are starting to get their act together. Nigeria is not lost in all that. Our doubling of power generation in just two years is testament to more serious govt at the helm than obtained in years past.

Rossikk:
Of course the forecast is based on current growth rates which, if sustained at this pace, will reach the predicted outcome.

And Also if the economy of France and UK remains stagnant for that number of years

ITbomb:
And Also if the economy of France and UK remains stagnant for that number of years

That's precisely what is projected to happen.

This Guardian UK study places Nigeria at 13th in the world in GDP with a 4.5 trillion dollar economy by 2050 (above Italy, Canada, South Korea, and Spain) and places the UK at 10th.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jan/07/gdp-projections-china-us-uk-brazil

Looking at those figures, NOW is the time to start up a company, no matter how small, keep at it, and pass it on to your children. They will be the big Nigerian enterprises and multinationals of the future, generating untold millions of dollars per annum.

Wishful thinking is one thing, reality is another... Question to be asked is will the projected growth rate be sustainable on the long run? Considering the usual policy somersault and inconsistency in implementation, that has become synonymous with every successive governments, 2050 may just be a mirage. My thoughts tho.

Guys hold on with the criticism of the lecturer. The same postulations on Nigeria coming growth has been stated by ALL major economic stations. From IMF,WORLD BANK,Financial Times, The Economist the list goes on and on. They can’t be all mad! I don’t know about the 2050 target but what Economists all over the world have established is that Nigeria will be a top 20 economy inside 2 decades and it is a fact.
Whilst i agree it’s abit hard to digest in view of the poor state of infrastructure and general state of the economy it is indeed a fact. I have read all kinds of stats and figures on this matter and it left me scratching my head until recently when i had a light bulb moment when reading an article in FT on Brazil where the president was interviewed.

Nigeria will indeed become a global powerhouse, only not on the same trajectory as the U.S or U.K or Japan. Also crucially it would not be like that of Chinas. Instead it will be like that of Brazil.
Brazil is now undoubtedly a power house and expanding, yet it shares alot of the problems with Nigeria. Corruption, Crime, Disease etc. Yet it has exponential growth, granted it has proper leadership unlike Nigeria!
A big part of Brazil’s secret according to the president herself has been an explosion of Entrepreneurship! Not becoming a major manufacturing hub like China or a centre of Financial instruments like the U.K. Brazil has very low unemployment figures far lower than the U.Ks yet technically there are ten times more multinational companies based in the U.K!

This was done by empowering the Barbers, Kiosk owners, farmers, local businesses etc! When people hear growth in Nigeria they should not assume that Samsung or Toyota will come and set up shop and subsequently employ thousands, No! That is not how Nigeria will grow.
Back to the subject of Brazil. The govt made low interest, micro loans available for start ups($300 - $500) this tiny sum in turn worked miracles for the local economy. It then had a domino effect as businesses thrived and mushroomed, unemployment dropped, disposable income increased, which in turn lead to expansion of existing businesses. Soon Venture Capital organisations started trooping into Brazil looked for where to invest, this in turn turboed the whole economic cycle of growth.

I don't know what the Nigerian govt has in mind,but one thing in the pipe works already that will see an overnight explosion of wealth is the privatization of power generation and distribution. It will be like the mobile phone revolution in Nigeria when Nitel failed to deliver and other business interests took over. With power running at a mere 80% - 90% millionaires will be made overnight!! Fact!

I believe this is how Nigeria will grow, the facts are undeniable and the cultural mindset is already sown as Nigerians are naturally entrepreneurial. I live outside Nigeria (for now) but i know Nigeria is being closely watched as the next big thing potentially in the world and certainly in Africa!

Maxymilliano: Wishful thinking is one thing, reality is another... Question to be asked is will the projected growth rate be sustainable on the long run? Considering the usual policy somersault and inconsistency in implementation, that has become synonymous with every successive governments, 2050 may just be a mirage. My thoughts tho.

I think you greatly exaggerate the ''policy somersaults'' issue today. Fact is there HAS been relative continuity in govt with regard to the general thrust of development, over the last 10-15 years. From OBJ's time at least, there has been a certain stability and focus in govt economic policies with regard to sectors like banking, finance, agriculture, power generation, manufacturing, diversification away from oil etc, that has led to current growth rates.

*Yawns*

Is it based on the Growth statistics made up by politicians and the NBS which is directly under the Presidency? Well this is not the first time we have heard of such growth. In fact, the Nigerian economy grew by 30% in real per capita terms in 2004 . Has it however affected the price of garri in the market? That is the issue.

I am a Development Economist and I will only believe the economy is growing when those Okada riders in Ojuelegba are no more. When those guys selling Gala and pure water on 3rd mainland bridge have moved to the factories where their labour will be utilized.

Till then you all can keep placing your hopes on such phoney growth statistics, however, count us out. Most Development scholars already know what's up, they hardly refer to such data.

This guy and his stupid theories... Yeah, it's great to be patriotic and optimistic, however, being an extremist is problematic...

How would you sustain the growth-margin bubble without a manufacturing base and industrialisation? Nigeria has a consumer-based economy - and we export only raw materials, and import the finished goods....

This projection is just a bubble - nothing worth rejoicing about... Keep singing 'kumbaya' while those thieving scums at the ivory tower stay stealing your sovereign wealth, and driving your country to abyss, mate...

All these economist and their paper projections. I wish the 7% anual growth translates from paper projections and Excel graphs to more industries, improved rail networks, regular power, adequate security and massive employment.
Btw, wasnt the lecture suposed to be about space tech? He just made his point at the last paragraph.

The funniest thing about the lousy "growth rate" and Nigeria's ever increasing GDP is that, 50% of value of the total product vis-a-vis total expenditure belongs to the few elites robbing the country blind... Yet, these clowns brag about nonsense everyday smh...

The country is heading towards abyss... To be honest, the country is doomed...

When the smoke clears, Greece is going to be "child's play" compared to Nigeria...

Nigerian economy is like a half full glass,it could go either way.If the country doesnt become a desolate land like somalia as a result of rogue leadership and religious fundamentalism,economic growth is inevitable.

One doesnt need a soothsayer for that,we have everything thing to make our economy one of the best in the world,but what we dont have at this moment is responsible leadership to champion the cause.We have to define what we want,with all hands on deck and go for it,but at this point in time,there is no idealogy in nigeria.

And without a common belief and goals,there is no people.

shymexx: [size=18pt]Economic growth without industralisation is like eating chips without ketchup and salt, or cereal without milk...[/size]

Nigeria's economic growth is just a bubble...

gbammmm, but we are industrialising at a very slow pace

from cement, drinks, sugar, etc are all done in nigeria

Krucifax: Guys hold on with the criticism of the lecturer. The same postulations on Nigeria coming growth has been stated by ALL major economic stations. From IMF,WORLD BANK,Financial Times, The Economist the list goes on and on. They can’t be all mad! I don’t know about the 2050 target but what Economists all over the world have established is that Nigeria will be a top 20 economy inside 2 decades and it is a fact.
Whilst i agree it’s abit hard to digest in view of the poor state of infrastructure and general state of the economy it is indeed a fact. I have read all kinds of stats and figures on this matter and it left me scratching my head until recently when i had a light bulb moment when reading an article in FT on Brazil where the president was interviewed.

Nigeria will indeed become a global powerhouse, only not on the same trajectory as the U.S or U.K or Japan. Also crucially it would not be like that of Chinas. Instead it will be like that of Brazil.
Brazil is now undoubtedly a power house and expanding, yet it shares alot of the problems with Nigeria. Corruption, Crime, Disease etc. Yet it has exponential growth, granted it has proper leadership unlike Nigeria!
A big part of Brazil’s secret according to the president herself has been an explosion of Entrepreneurship! Not becoming a major manufacturing hub like China or a centre of Financial instruments like the U.K. Brazil has very low unemployment figures far lower than the U.Ks yet technically there are ten times more multinational companies based in the U.K!

This was done by empowering the Barbers, Kiosk owners, farmers, local businesses etc! When people hear growth in Nigeria they should not assume that Samsung or Toyota will come and set up shop and subsequently employ thousands, No! That is not how Nigeria will grow.

Back to the subject of Brazil. The govt made low interest, micro loans available for start ups($300 - $500) this tiny sum in turn worked miracles for the local economy. It then had a domino effect as businesses thrived and mushroomed, unemployment dropped, disposable income increased, which in turn lead to expansion of existing businesses. Soon Venture Capital organisations started trooping into Brazil looked for where to invest, this in turn turboed the whole economic cycle of growth.

I don't know what the Nigerian govt has in mind,but one thing in the pipe works already that will see an overnight explosion of wealth is the privatization of power generation and distribution. It will be like the mobile phone revolution in Nigeria when Nitel failed to deliver and other business interests took over. With power running at a mere 80% - 90% millionaires will be made overnight!! Fact!

I believe this is how Nigeria will grow, the facts are undeniable and the cultural mindset is already sown as Nigerians are naturally entrepreneurial. I live outside Nigeria (for now) but i know Nigeria is being closely watched as the next big thing potentially in the world and certainly in Africa!

It's interesting you mentioned the Brazilian mode of development, as the first thing I thought of was INNOSON Motors, Nigeria's first indigenous-owned vehicle manufacturing plant. How long before we start to export luxury buses to our neighbours the way Brazil has done since the 80s?

By 2050, INNOSON Motors would be a huge, world-leading vehicle manufacturer on a scale with Toyota.

alj harem:
gbammmm, but we are industrialising at a very slow pace

from cement, drinks, sugar, etc are all done in nigeria

Bwahahahahahaha

Somalia manufactures those things as well lol...

When you start manufacturing things worth talking about, then we can talk about "industrilisation" - however, stay enjoying your bubble...

The bubble is going to burst soon - and just like every house built on a shaky foundation, Nigeria will be exposed...

without the empowerment of the middle class , the Nigerian economy is doom .
For now that empowerment is still non existent for a government that cannot pay 18k minimum wage yet someone is getting food poisoning from eating 3million worth of food per day.
The technicians , craft men and other micro enterprises cannot access low interest credit to enhance their business

First it was 2020, now it's 2050. I won't wait for Nigeria, I'll be very rich in few years time. Nigeria can wait till eternity.

This LIE has been hidden.

It is one thing to look at Nigeria 7%+ growth over the past few years and Europe's slower growth over that time period and make predictions for say 2015.

It is an entirely different thing to use those same #s to project out to 2050.

^^ why?

This is voodoo economics.

The British economy has consistently ranked among the best in the world for at least 500 years.
China's growth is already stalling, and will likely continue to stall into the future.

Ndigbo say that nwa nza na ebu, odi ka o ga aka nne ya, mana emechaa o hakwa ka nne ya! (a bird -Nza- hatchling will for a few days appear as if it would grow bigger than the mother, but will inevitably be of the same size as the mother when it matures).

Nigeria is growing, but others are not sleeping either.

Rossikk: ^^ why?

1. Well, generally speaking, human beings aren't great at predicting most trends many years in the future.
2. I think it is silly to predict high growth in Nigeria for many years unless it first starts manufacturing and industrializing. 5 or so good years is not a fundamental trend, imo.
3. Even if (2) is addressed, at some point increased prosperity in Nigeria will eventually cause money/investment to chase poorer countries, since those countries will then have the advantage cost-wise.