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Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction - Science/Technology - Nairaland

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Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by nitlad: 11:16pm On Oct 23, 2012
We can think of a lot of things that might send someone to jail, but guessing wrong about an earthquake has never been one of them. Six scientists in Italy were probably thinking the same thing until today, when a judge put them in prison for six years.

Back in the spring of 2009, a series of tremors rocked the Italian town of L'Aquila, sparking concerns that a full-blown earthquake could be on the way. To address the concerns, government officials met with a group of earth scientists to discuss the likelihood of a quake hitting the town.

The meeting took place on March 31, 2009. Scientist Enzo Boschi said at the time that a major quake was "unlikely," but also reportedly acknowledged that it was still possible. Following the meeting, Bernardo De Bernardinis, an official with the Department of Civil Protection, publicly said there was "no danger" of a major quake.

On April 6, a magnitude 6.3 quake struck the town, collapsing weak medieval buildings and killing 309 people.

In September 2011 Boschi, De Bernardinis and five of their colleagues were put on trial for their alleged involvement in the L'Aquila deaths, sparking international outrage in the scientific community.

"Our ability to predict earthquake hazards is, frankly, lousy," Seth Stein, a professor of Earth sciences at Northwestern University in Illinois, told LiveScience last year. "Criminalizing something would only make sense if we really knew how to do this and someone did it wrong."

Despite the outcry, the trial continued, and on Monday Judge Marco Billi found the six scientists and De Bernardinis guilty of multiple manslaughter. They were sentenced to six years each, sparking more public outrage.

"I hope the Italians realize how backwards they are in this L'Aquila trial and its verdict," said Erik Klemetti, an assistant professor of geosciences at Denison University in Ohio. Klemetti also said the verdict sets a "terrible precedent."

So remember, if you're a scientist and you decide to speak publicly about a possible natural disaster, the Italians might want to throw you in jail for it later.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-205_162-57537303/italian-scientists-get-6-years-for-laquila-earthquake-statements/

Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by Nobody: 11:48pm On Oct 23, 2012
That was related to L'Aquilla earthquake. I saw it on TV long time ago and it was really a devastating one. The scientists really flopped on the information provided to the public!
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by savcy(m): 11:53pm On Oct 23, 2012
If to say na Naija d fake scientist for claim 'political sabotage' cry
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by pastormustwacc: 12:15am On Oct 24, 2012
No be earthquake, na boko bomb them, no be scientist faults nao
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by lafuria1(m): 12:18am On Oct 24, 2012
whenever i see this sort of news i end up laffin just trying to picture same issue in nigeria. common flood that govt knew was comming through heavy rainfall but did nothing to prepare well for it only to use the flood for 2015 campaign of solidarity and fake pity for the people.

1 Like

Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by Nobody: 12:31am On Oct 24, 2012
nitlad:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-205_162-57537303/italian-scientists-get-6-years-for-laquila-earthquake-statements/
they were convicted because their reports were not precise, not for being wrong

1 Like

Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by CGKing(m): 12:42am On Oct 24, 2012
Serious o. Abi the Italian emperor them pikin follow die?
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by tevinsolt: 12:57am On Oct 24, 2012
when science has failed you, where/who do you turn to? wink
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by seunfly: 1:33am On Oct 24, 2012
tevinsolt: when science has failed you, where/who do you turn to? wink

GOD.

5 Likes

Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by KayDee4: 1:33am On Oct 24, 2012
Why did they even try at all ?

They should have just told the govt. officials it is impossible to predict earthquakes; simple undecided .
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by Nobody: 1:43am On Oct 24, 2012
They flopped...big time...
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by StarFlux: 1:51am On Oct 24, 2012
Wow!!

So if their reports weren't precice, they did a bad job? Very regrettable that so many people died, but isn't this a bit unreasonable? I'm not going to make a statement though, until I know the full details.

1 Like

Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by Syenite(m): 4:00am On Oct 24, 2012
I am in a profession that has to do with Earth Quakes.Infact I am a Seismologist(science of study of earthquakes). Pedicting Earth quakes is not as easy as weather prediction. This is a slap on our noble profession.Sorry my co-Earth scientists. You only got it wrong this time.It is not the end of the world for u guys.

1 Like

Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by elampiro(m): 4:48am On Oct 24, 2012
Italy disaster experts quit over quake trial

Associated Press - 8 hrs ago


ROME (AP) — Four top Italian disaster experts quit their posts Tuesday, saying the manslaughter convictions of former colleagues for failing to adequately warn of a deadly 2009 earthquake means they can't effectively perform their duties.

A court in the quake-devastated town of L'Aquila convicted seven former members of Italy's so-called "Great Risks Commission" and sentenced each of them to six years in prison, prompting predictions that experts would be discouraged from working in Italy for fear of similar risks of prosecution.

Commission President Luciano Maiani and two other members resigned, along with a top official for earthquake and volcano risk in the national Department of Civil Protection. Maiani said Monday's court ruling made it impossible to work in a "calm and efficient" way.

Prosecutors alleged the defendants — who included some of Italy's most internationally respected quake experts — didn't properly inform town residents of the risk of a big quake following weeks of small tremors. But scientists have ridiculed the case, saying earthquakes cannot be accurately predicted. The convictions are expected to be appealed. http://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/news/italy-disaster-experts-quit-over-quake-trial-173852800.html?.b=index&.ts=1351050201&.intl=us&.lang=en
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by donigspain(m): 4:55am On Oct 24, 2012
Syenite: I am in a profession that has to do with Earth Quakes.Infact I am a Seismologist(science of study of earthquakes). Pedicting Earth quakes is not as easy as weather prediction. This is a slap on our noble profession.Sorry my co-Earth scientists. You only got it wrong this time.It is not the end of the world for u guys.
Hey man, can you please elaborate more on the above bolded words? Mind you, you better give a valid proof to back your claims.
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by TonySpike: 5:07am On Oct 24, 2012
On a page involving science like this on NL, you rarely see people commenting. It is certain that science is at its lowest ebb in Nigeria, no wonder we aren't developing. On the topic, I can't be sure but it appears the Italians aren't as sophisticated like the Japs. Japan has one of the largest arrays of wireless sensor networks for early detection of seismic activities. I really think a deep assessment from real-time knowledge of the earth-crust state could have helped our jailed Italian scientists in their botch forecast. Nevertheless, it sounds ludicrous that they were jailed for imprecision in predicting a random natural event. Makes me feel sick...
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by Syenite(m): 5:07am On Oct 24, 2012
donigspain: Hey man, can you please elaborate more on the above bolded words? Mind you, you better give a valid proof to back your claims.
what is ur background?
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by AyeeIdris(f): 5:40am On Oct 24, 2012
I have been following the report for a while. They didn't "flop". They are not God. There were seismic activities and tremors at that time and in Italy in general. There was no way they coUld tell. Ofcourse the only alternative was to forecast an earthquake anytime there is a tremor and create unnecessary panic if it didn't happen, I am sure they would have been jailed for that as well. Earthquakes can happen in a nanosecond and isn't like rain (which itself has a 50 50 chance). Science isn't absolute. Scientists are not gods. Its sad that people would now be afraid to do their jobs for fear of being arrested.

2 Likes

Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by dareyking(m): 7:13am On Oct 24, 2012
@top
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by ezme(m): 7:54am On Oct 24, 2012
Wow!!! I'm just wondering who would be jailed for failure to predict a natural disaster in Nigeria... Only one name comes to mind, T.B. Joshua
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by femmy2010(m): 8:18am On Oct 24, 2012
Science and scientist are been challenged to predict nature and natural occurence accurately which seems a tall order.
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by Timbi: 8:22am On Oct 24, 2012
"THE LAW IS AN A*S"
Charles Dickens

1 Like

Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by gbadexy(m): 8:22am On Oct 24, 2012
I still maintain that these judges need constant psychiatry evaluation alongside with police.
Some of these old judges may already be senile and give whimsical ruling.

1 Like

Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by iamswizz(m): 9:01am On Oct 24, 2012
They were supposed to be ordered to 'stop practising'... Rather than being 'jailed'...too bad
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by pedor(m): 9:09am On Oct 24, 2012
That is wickedness....ppl make mistake
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by Patdedon(m): 9:16am On Oct 24, 2012
My candid opinion, those guys do not deserve the punishment they are getting. Sending someone to jail for inaccurate prediction?? It shows how crazy the world is going.
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by OkwaIfugo(m): 9:16am On Oct 24, 2012
if you predict na wahala if you don't then your loosing your onions.
haba
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by donigspain(m): 10:36am On Oct 24, 2012
Syenite:
what is ur background?
that discipline u just denigrated in ur 1st comment.
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by Standing5(m): 10:49am On Oct 24, 2012
Well Scientist should be care with what they vouch for, especially in our own part of the world were some are just too crazy about [b]The Glory [/b]that comes with obs like this. The Philips Emegwealis of this world can tell more about the other side of not being jailed for things like this.
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by Clemzy16(m): 11:15am On Oct 24, 2012
Poor scientists looking for cheap popularity. MORALS: If you are not sure about a particular event, you better keep quite inorder to save your behind. Also, It's dis-heartening to know that this false prediction kept fear and confusion in the heart of many. However, i think they were just doing their job, but with this flop i also think they deserved to be punished but six-years jail term is just out of it.
Re: Scientists Jailed For Wrong Earthquake Prediction by Input(m): 11:31am On Oct 24, 2012
donigspain: that discipline u just denigrated in ur 1st comment.
I don't think he denigrated your discipline.
@post,jailing an earth scientist for this king of issue is a big slap to the profession.If the judges understand the geology of the earth they would never have done such.We should understand we are talking about subsurface here and as such we relies on instrument for interpretation.

All earth scientist should standup against the demeaning of this profession.

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