By-elections or bye-bye to elections
Kanmi Ademiluyi

Outside of the circle of lawyers and political junkies, bored yawns greeted the ruling of the Presidential Elections Tribunal. It is clear that most people will rather go about their day-to-day chores, rather than get animated about the finer points of the ruling. Apart from bored resignation to fate, there is an almost total lack of faith in the ability of the political elite to ‘deliver the goods.’

The disillusionment cuts across the board, which is rather dangerous for a democracy. The general cynicism does not portend any good as there are grave dangers when the populace in a democracy simply withdraw into a shell. This will create a vacuum, which will be willingly, indeed enthusiastically, occupied by anti-democratic forces. This is obviously what those behind the mayhem in places such as Ibadan and Anambra want. It will portend ill if by inducing apathy, they are allowed to get their way. We can already see the manifestation of this trend in the recently concluded by-elections conducted to fill vacancies in the various legislatures.

In the case of an Ibadan Federal Constituency, where a by-election was forced by the death of a sitting member, the turnout was not just low, it was pathetic. On polling day, the voters got the message, they voted with their feet and stayed indoors. Now, it will be unfair to preach sanctimonious sermons and admonish the unenthusiastic electors for staying at home. From recent unpalatable experience this might actually be the sensible thing to do. What is it going to profit anyone to have his skull cracked and his or her anatomy re-arranged in the pursuit of their civic responsibilities? The ‘security’ agencies have been unambiguous in making it clear that the electors turn up to vote at their own risk. With this ‘car parked at owners risk’ forewarning, the security forces have ceded their purported monopoly over the means of violence, intimidation and coercion. Through this bizarre concession, Nigeria has introduced a whole new innovative dimension to their concept of rolling back the frontiers of the state. It is hardly surprising then, that there is a paucity of prosecution of those who were caught in election-related violence. All the victims of such violence especially those who made the supreme sacrifice have only their begotten families to grief for them.

With the courts nullifying so many ‘elections,’ we are now going to be inundated with a myriad of bye-elections at all levels. You do not need to be a psepseclogy genius to know that turnout will be low. With the security forces surrendering their mandates, it can hardly be otherwise. What this means, of course, is that the democratic base is being whittled down in a low intensity insurgent warfare. If care is not taken it will get to the point where people will ask, what’s the point of the democracy, anyway? This is what the forces of darkness in Ibadan and Anambra want and they should be denied their aim.

Unfortunately, the insipid opposition does not appear to realize that there is both danger and opportunity here. Danger, for they will be the first casualty of the truncation of the democratic process. On the other hand, there is also opportunity even in this dismal time. The lack of legitimacy of the April elections should have galvanized those outside the Peoples Democratic Party electoral coalition into action. Instead they appear to be uncoordinated. Lack of focus, of a coherent philosophical orientation, and the absence of a committed dedicated cadre have all taken their toll. In the aftermath of the presidential tribunal ruling it was astonishing to hear some of those who claim to have a patent on the leadership of the opposition speaking from both sides of their mouth. In the case of some notables, this might be seemingly justifiable. After all, there is a need to keep the EFCC at bay and the doublespeak could be a form of plea-bargaining.

Nevertheless, the absence of a vigorous, coordinated and focused alternative, a prepared government-in-waiting cannot bode well for a democracy. For in view of the violence that has accompanied the primaries of the PDP, there is obviously a clear need for a democratic alternative. If there had been sincerity of purpose in the first place, by now the Conference of Nigerian Political Parties, the umbrella grouping of political formations outside of the PDP should have formed a united, popular front. Such an alignment of forces would have evolved a clear programme, encompassing a well thought-out, and detailed alternative to the PDP. Frankly, there is a need for this. How can one fathom out a situation in which incredibly high oil prices have not translated into any discernable advance in living standards and prospects for the Nigerian people? The country is still near the bottom of many league tables relating to Human Index performance. Shockingly, $100 per barrel oil has not led to any dividend of democracy for the mass of the people and their families. Absurdly, the country is way behind meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). When one considers that other less endowed African countries are better placed in meeting the rather minimalist MDGs, one can begin to appreciate the magnitude of the problem. The opposition’s response to all this is tepid and inchoate.

It is obvious that an alternative electoral coalition based on a popular programme will be essential to restore democracy in the real sense in Nigeria. Such a coalition will eventually be widened and deepend with the inevitable implosion of the PDP. However, there is no point in just hoping for a collapse of the PDP, the real work must start immediately. The coming by-elections provide an opportunity. Given the formidable obstacles from the security forces and professional manipulators of the electoral process, the non-PDP parties have to join hands to fight a formidable leviathan. Common security and logistics will have to be worked out as well as financing and fund raising. In view of the fact that the electoral system is based on ‘first past the post,’ as opposed to any form of proportional representation, running different candidates and in the process splitting the vote will be calamitous. Above all, they must campaign on the basis of a programme which can galvanise a disillusioned electorate to come out, be mobilized and fight for their rights.

The downside here is that the opposition, to a considerable extent, belong to the same pool of military-induced ‘militicians.’ From this dismal perspective, it is clear that the notion of political parties will have to be re-invented. If a start is not made there is bound to be some not very palatable side effects. It means that the country will continue to pursue an economic strategy which does not benefit the generality of the people. In addition, rather ominously, there will be a persistent threat to the entrenchment of democratic principles. More disconcerting still, the elections to be held in 2011 will weigh upon the soul like a nightmare. The need for a democratic alternative is critical. An abdication of responsibility by the opposition, as we are seeing now, will not do the country any good.

…, Briefly

Will he be his own Man?

The indifference with which the judgment of the Presidential Elections Tribunal was received is an indication of a lack of popular acceptance. Ordinarily, this should galvanise the President into action. Unfortunately, the President came in carrying a load of baggage. To jettison them is going to require terrific political skills and sagacity. Unfortunately, Yar’Adua comes across as a man who does not have the stomach for the fight. With an eye on history, Yar’Adua should muscle up the courage to now jettison his odious patron. Can he? Will he? It won’t do any of us any good if he does not decide to be his own man. For a start, he should go back to his own “Seven-point Agenda’ and try to revitalize and refocus.

It is true of course that the ‘agenda’ itself is rather banal and clichÈ ridden, which must be why it is being reviewed. Inspite of this there are some fine points in it worthy of pursuing. From this perspective, repealing the Land Use Act is imperative as is the need for a Marshall type plan for the Niger Delta. In the end it’s all up to Yar’Adua. Will he have an eye on history and confound his critics? Or will he go down as just OBJ’s convenient poodle or pavlovian lapdog?The answer seems to be blowing in the wind.