Omo_Tier1: The National Bureau of Statistics on Monday released its final report on the performance of the economy in the 2012 fiscal year with a shocker that the country’s Gross Domestic Product declined when compared to previous years.

Specifically, the bureau said in the report that overall growth in real GDP in 2012 was 6.61 per cent, which is a decline from the 7.43 per cent recorded in 2011.

This came just as the bureau also released the Consumer Price Index for the month of January, in which it stated that inflation rate had declined from 12 per cent in December 2012 to nine per cent.

The report attributed the decline to “base effects,” which occurred as a result of higher price levels in the previous year.

This, it noted, implied that the year-on-year changes this year would not be significant.

Explaining the reasons for the higher prices in 2012, the report said, “The Nigerian economy exhibited several shocks in January 2012. The partial repeal of the Premium Motor Spirit subsidy led to increases in transportation costs as well as secondary effects, as the transportation costs affected both food and non-food prices.

“There were also the civil protests, which followed, and the man-made price gouging during the month, as merchants tried to take advantage of temporary shortages.”

The 25-page GDP report signed by the Statistician General of the Federation, Dr. Yemi Kale, also confirmed that the economy encountered numerous challenges in the 2012 period.

Some of them are oil production slowdown due to security challenges in the Niger Delta; flooding, which destroyed many farmlands in the country; and weaker consumer demand.

All these, the report stated, impacted negatively on the economy.

It said, “The Nigerian economy faced numerous challenges, which impacted overall economic activity in 2012. Declines in the real growth rates of economic activity were experienced in both the oil and non-oil sectors.

“Oil production was less than expected due to security challenges and floods, which occurred in the latter part of the year, while the non-oil sector (notably agriculture, wholesale and retail trade) was mostly affected by the floods and weaker consumer demand.

“Revised data for 2012 indicates that real GDP grew by 6.34 per cent in the first quarter and 6.39 per cent in the second quarter of 2012. The rate of economic activity was slightly higher than the initial estimates of 6.17 per cent and 6.28 per cent, respectively, as published in early 2012.

“Nevertheless, the revised growth rates were lower than those recorded in the corresponding quarters of 2011, which were 6.96 per cent and 7.50 per cent, respectively.

“Therefore, the economy declined by 0.62 percentage points and 1.11 percentage points respectively in the first two quarters of the year compared to corresponding quarters in 2011.

“For 2012, the economy is, therefore, expected to grow by 6.61 per cent, a relative decline from the 7.43 per cent recorded in 2011.”

The report said while oil production declined by 4.4 per cent to 2.37 million barrels per day during the first half of 2012 as against 2.48mbpd produced in the first half of 2011 owing to cases of theft and vandalism; the non-oil sector was affected by the incidence of flooding.

Similarly, it said infrastructure challenges hampered the manufacturing sector.

The report also gave an outlook of the economy for the next four years, stating that real GDP might rise to 6.75 per cent in 2013; 7.24 in 2014, while 2015 and 2016 might see decline to 6.93 per cent and 6.62 per cent respectively.

Inflation rate, according to the report, may moderate slightly from 11.98 per cent in 2012 to 9.76 per cent, 9.49 per cent, 9.76 and 9.95 per cent in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively.

It said, “This forecast appears to mirror a consistent growth pattern (when compared to previous statistics) for the Nigerian economy taking cognizance of evident realities in the macroeconomic environment in addition to the gradually improving productive base of the economy.

“Also, the continued efforts of the government towards revamping the economy through various sectoral policy reforms such as energy reforms, consolidation and post-consolidation exercises going on in the banking and sub-banking sectors, agricultural reforms and oil sector reforms are expected to drive higher growth during the period.”

Source : http://www.punchng.com/business/business-economy/economy-shrank-by-0-82-in-2012-nbs/

Omo_Tier1: The National Bureau of Statistics on Monday released its final report on the performance of the economy in the 2012 fiscal year with a shocker that the country’s Gross Domestic Product declined when compared to previous years.

Specifically, the bureau said in the report that overall growth in real GDP in 2012 was 6.61 per cent, which is a decline from the 7.43 per cent recorded in 2011.

This came just as the bureau also released the Consumer Price Index for the month of January, in which it stated that inflation rate had declined from 12 per cent in December 2012 to nine per cent.

The report attributed the decline to “base effects,” which occurred as a result of higher price levels in the previous year.

This, it noted, implied that the year-on-year changes this year would not be significant.

Explaining the reasons for the higher prices in 2012, the report said, “The Nigerian economy exhibited several shocks in January 2012. The partial repeal of the Premium Motor Spirit subsidy led to increases in transportation costs as well as secondary effects, as the transportation costs affected both food and non-food prices.

“There were also the civil protests, which followed, and the man-made price gouging during the month, as merchants tried to take advantage of temporary shortages.”

The 25-page GDP report signed by the Statistician General of the Federation, Dr. Yemi Kale, also confirmed that the economy encountered numerous challenges in the 2012 period.

Some of them are oil production slowdown due to security challenges in the Niger Delta; flooding, which destroyed many farmlands in the country; and weaker consumer demand.

All these, the report stated, impacted negatively on the economy.

It said, “The Nigerian economy faced numerous challenges, which impacted overall economic activity in 2012. Declines in the real growth rates of economic activity were experienced in both the oil and non-oil sectors.

“Oil production was less than expected due to security challenges and floods, which occurred in the latter part of the year, while the non-oil sector (notably agriculture, wholesale and retail trade) was mostly affected by the floods and weaker consumer demand.

“Revised data for 2012 indicates that real GDP grew by 6.34 per cent in the first quarter and 6.39 per cent in the second quarter of 2012. The rate of economic activity was slightly higher than the initial estimates of 6.17 per cent and 6.28 per cent, respectively, as published in early 2012.

“Nevertheless, the revised growth rates were lower than those recorded in the corresponding quarters of 2011, which were 6.96 per cent and 7.50 per cent, respectively.

“Therefore, the economy declined by 0.62 percentage points and 1.11 percentage points respectively in the first two quarters of the year compared to corresponding quarters in 2011.

“For 2012, the economy is, therefore, expected to grow by 6.61 per cent, a relative decline from the 7.43 per cent recorded in 2011.”

The report said while oil production declined by 4.4 per cent to 2.37 million barrels per day during the first half of 2012 as against 2.48mbpd produced in the first half of 2011 owing to cases of theft and vandalism; the non-oil sector was affected by the incidence of flooding.

Similarly, it said infrastructure challenges hampered the manufacturing sector.

The report also gave an outlook of the economy for the next four years, stating that real GDP might rise to 6.75 per cent in 2013; 7.24 in 2014, while 2015 and 2016 might see decline to 6.93 per cent and 6.62 per cent respectively.

Inflation rate, according to the report, may moderate slightly from 11.98 per cent in 2012 to 9.76 per cent, 9.49 per cent, 9.76 and 9.95 per cent in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively.

It said, “This forecast appears to mirror a consistent growth pattern (when compared to previous statistics) for the Nigerian economy taking cognizance of evident realities in the macroeconomic environment in addition to the gradually improving productive base of the economy.

“Also, the continued efforts of the government towards revamping the economy through various sectoral policy reforms such as energy reforms, consolidation and post-consolidation exercises going on in the banking and sub-banking sectors, agricultural reforms and oil sector reforms are expected to drive higher growth during the period.”

Source : http://www.punchng.com/business/business-economy/economy-shrank-by-0-82-in-2012-nbs/

ROSSIKE: Poster, first off, your headline is grossly misleading to the point of embarrassment.

GDP did not ''decline''.

What happened is that an already fast GDP growth rate of 7.43% achieved in 2011 slowed to a still very fast GDP growth rate of 6.61%.

What the stats are saying is that Nigeria is sustaining fast GDP growth rate which was somewhat tempered by 0.68%. Many nations would kill to have a GDP growth rate of 6.61%, a figfure which still places Nigeria among the world's fastest growing economies.

taharqa: Lol... Some people are just utterly pathetic to the point of actuali been Objects of Pity...... PITY

Omo_Tier1:
You are a disgrace to Nigeria Educational system @ bold. 7.43% GDP is no where near the level you will call unsustainable. With other economies declining, we should be posting near double digits GDP figures. There is no way you will try to spin this, I am sorry. The events that befell 2012 in the country would clearly point to a possible decline in the GDP. Just have a look at this trend....

Omo_Tier1:
You are a disgrace to Nigeria Educational system @ bold. 7.43% GDP is no where near the level you will call unsustainable. With other economies declining, we should be posting near double digits GDP figures. There is no way you will try to spin this, I am sorry. The events that befell 2012 in the country would clearly point to a possible decline in the GDP. Just have a look at the trend below.

Tell me, with a booming middle class, active work force, why can't we sustain a GDP of 7.4% or even 7% year on year? I do not know why you people are satisfied with mediocrity in that country

ROSSIKE:

There is a popular saying that when in a hole, stop digging.

What do you think that graph you posted shows? You think it shows a declining GDP? A ''shrinking economy''?

You need to go back to school, or take a short online course in economics. You're clearly an economic illiterate. And talking garbled nonsense about ''we should be posting double digit growth figures'' is a none too smart diversion away from your failed point that GDP was ''falling''. We're not stup.id.

taharqa: Are you madt?? Dont you hv any shame at all? So you are still talking afta that comment by @Rossike... Opposition does not mean Fooolishness, na. Sm of you chaps DISGUST me at times, and significantly increases my passion for supporting GEJ...... Just imagine a literate using d words: 'GDP decreases..' and 'Economy Contracts..' , when presentd with dis statistical data, and still arguing. Omatshe oo...

Omo_Tier1:
Let me help you out, when something reduces from a height to much lower height, you say it has DECREASED. When an Economy that in all ramifications should be posting near double digits figures is showing a reduction, with the ordinary man on the street telling you things have gotten harder than previous years, it is a clear sign that the Economy is not growing as it should and there is a decline!

akintun: D GDP shows dat we are still in recession. A GDP growth of 6.6% is bad 4 a country like china talkless of Nigeria. Any growth dat is less than 15% is rubbish.

akintun: D GDP shows dat we are still in recession. A GDP growth of 6.6% is bad 4 a country like china talkless of Nigeria. Any growth dat is less than 15% is rubbish.

0lumide: Taharqa and Rossike, seriously?

You guys have little to no knowledge of economics. WTH? Y'all such a bunch.

Taharqa, be honest with your self for a living for once. What's your qualification or career to defend Jonathan based on economic statistics?

Like seriously? stick to politics please and stop making it obvious that you will defend Jonathan even if he orders massacre on Nigerians.

Be honest with your self for once geez.. Fear your last day oo.. Your conscience will bite you hard.

taharqa: In other news, more Economic data (apart from the Economy expanding by 6.61% with GDP increasing from about $250bn to more than $270bn) indicates that: Nigeria receivd by far the highest FDI in Africa in 2011 at $8.9bn, and preliminary data indicates a significant increase in 2012, just as the total foreign inflow (FDI and odas) in January 2013 alone grew by 207% yr-on-yr; two of the world's Rating Agencies (S&P and Moody) raisd the nation's Sovereign Ratings TWICE in 2 yrs, same time they were downgrading the Ratings of sm advancd nations; Morgan Chase added Nigeria to its Debt market for the very 1st time indicating increasd confidence in the economy, just as Barclays is said to also do same by March dis yr and IFC 1st entrance to our market oversubscribed many times ova- all these hv attractd many players to Nigeria's money market like never b4, and are already leading to significant decreases in borrowing costs to about 4.39% for our dollar denominatd bonds and 10.79% for its naira equivalent (the lowest I think they hv eva bn); the Nigerian Stock Exchange in now in full recovery mode afta the 2009 crash by increasing by 37.4% in 2012 from 6.533trn to 8.974trn, making it one of the best performing in the world last yr, and increasing by about 16% already dis yr; the naira increasd by more than 3% and was the 2nd most performing currencies in Africa last yr; the Reserves increasd by more than 35% from about $33bn to about $44.5bn last year, and has already increasd by around 6% dis yr to about $47bn; and inflation rate that was stubborn at low double digits truout last yr has now come down to 9% in Jan from 12% in Dec yr-on-yr, etc, etc.......... Yea!! I can really see how the 'Economy is contracting' and the 'GDP decreasing', Or as one of dem Clown said, 'Nigeria is still in Recession'...

Omo_Tier1:
It shows you lack basic education and that is why you are a glorified thug for the PDP led government. If you like attract $1tn worth of investment, if the output at the end of the year does not measure up, its like pouring a tanker load of water in an empty basket... get it now?

taharqa: You know I just confirmd? You are the biggest HYPOCRITE of dem all!! This shld be about d silliest responses I hv eva seen on NL. What is the meaning of 'if the output at the end of the yr does not measure up', as a response to my comment. Don't you hv any shame, and know when to stop foooling yrself. I am even beginning to feel ashamd of you..*smh*

Omo_Tier1:
Are you a human being to be reckon with if at all? Isn't your life summed up by the bag of rice and N1500 you got from last PDP party convention? Do I expect a goat to grow furr?..Absolutely not... so go siddon for one corner and continue to wallow in stupidity.

Is it not a know fact here on NL that you are a shameless human being who glory in lies and deceit? Do I expect you to grasp the economics of GDP and the likes? Absolutely not. That is why I will advice you to stick to the petty falsehood of junk information about mediocre projects by your god master GEJ that you have been trained for.

ballabriggs: Such growth for a country that still gets the bulk of its foreign exchange through oil exports is meaningless?

A little slump in oil prices will push growth down. Quality of growth and not quantity is the most important thing. What really drives growth?

At 1990 we grew at 10%, 2004 was put at about 30% according to UNCTADSTAT (mainly due to rising oil prices), did it change anything? How many of you knew we grew by 30% in 2004?


As long as the oil money keeps flowing in, GDP will continue to rise, nothing extra-ordinary.

ROSSIKE:

We did NOT grow at 10% in 1990. More like 8.2 percent, but only for that year, as it came crashing back to 4.7% the next year, and 2.2% the year after.. Neither did we grow at 30% in 2004. Your figures are bogus. Here's the graph:

https://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_kd_zg&idim=country:NGA&dl=en&hl=en&q=nigeria%20gdp%20growth%20graph

The difference over the last decade is that there has been very little fluctuation in GDP growth, compared to the 70s, 80s, and 90s, which makes it's measurement more meaningful, and points to real, steady progress.

Also, recent GDP growth has been attributed primarily to growth in the non-oil sector - telecoms, retail, agriculture, financial services, construction, and manufacturing.

Lastly, only 14% of Nigeria's annual GDP is derived from the oil and gas sector.

Omo_Tier1:
You are a disgrace to Nigeria Educational system @ bold. 7.43% GDP is no where near the level you will call unsustainable. With other economies declining, we should be posting near double digits GDP figures. There is no way you will try to spin this, I am sorry. The events that befell 2012 in the country would clearly point to a possible decline in the GDP. Just have a look at the trend below.

Tell me, with a booming middle class, active work force, why can't we sustain a GDP of 7.4% or even 7% year on year? I do not know why you people are satisfied with mediocrity in that country

PapaBrowne:


Are you guys serious?? You posted a graph that clearly shows GDP growth in a consistently upward direction for 2012 and you are complaining about 6.6%?
Are you serious? And someone said we should grow at 15%? Do you understand economics at all? Even China tries to avoid overheated economic growth and sometimes takes adequate measures to slow down its growth. It is wicked and unfair for anyone that claims to understand economics to look at that graph and think the economy did badly in 2012. There was a dip in the first quarter and it was clearly attributable to the strike that happened in January.