"PDP is dead and we are about to bury it” - Governor Murtala Nyarko on BBC.... July 2013

PDP is officially a divided house. Few months ago, the Kano Governor Rabiu Kwakwanso declared they were about to form another political party. There is reason behind this declaration. These Northern Governors are fighting for political survival in PDP. The 9 Governors have met Obasanjo in Abeokuta. They also met with IBB and Abdulsalami in Minna. They recently sent emissaries to meet with Danjuma and other stakeholders in the North of their intent to destroy PDP. You have to be a political kindergartener to think these Governors did not get the go ahead with their plan without the backing of these Northern Leaders and Elders. The fight is about North against Jonathan and PDP. No more no less. The North has never been united as ever in this fight for political survival. At the appropriate time, all the Northerners who are currently loyal to GEJ administration will be leaving him at the last minutes. You do not want to have a political battle with the North when the Northerners are united against common enemy.

The writing was on the wall when the President decided to interfere in the NGF election. These Governors realized that if the President should get his way by imposing his own man on them to serve as NGF Chairman, there will be no way for any of the Northern Governors to contest against him. For those who claim the President had nothing to do with what happened on the night of the NGF election, you were all wrong then and you are still wrong now. Governor Goodswill Akpabio was charged to prevent Amaechi from emerging as NGF Governor. How could any of you think 15 other Governors who support Jang are doing this without the backing of the President? The backroom manipulation of these Northern Governors is a reminder of political sophistication of Northerners when it comes to politics. They know when they have the absolute power to achieve their goals without alliance. They also know when to form alliance with other parties or tribes when they feel they have less power to achieve their objectives. That is exactly what they did when Jang was defeated as NGF Chairman. Ask Jonathan what does he prefer, he would tell you he rather have the 9 Governors with him going into the 2015 election.

What these Governors are trying to do is to create a proxy political party to draw out disenchanted PDP members (mostly from the North) and possible from the South (Amaechi factor) then bring them into the new party’s fold. This party is going to be mainly Northern party. This party will be used to gain leverage with APC. The 9 Governors would have made a big mistake by decamping to APC. It would have been suicidal for them to do. The next move after registering the party is to negotiate and go into alliance with APC. Their objective is to spike Jonathan and get a consensus and most acceptable candidate from the South to be the Presidential flag bearer of the new alliance party. My mind tells me they will settle for Fashola with a Northerner as Vice President or a Northerner as President with Fashola as Vice President. This is where Fashola and Tambuwal scenario come in. There is something to the political romance between Tambuwal and bigwigs in the last two years.

If you do not see a political movement with the homage being paid to the Governor of Lagos State at the moment, then you are not yet politically savvy. There is reason behind the pilgrimage going on in Lagos with movers and shakers from the North coming in droves to pay homage to Governor Fashola.

When it is all said and done, there will be three causalities namely; Buhari, Jonathan, and PDP. Grab you popcorn as 2014 is going to be an interesting years in Nigeria’s political history.

In their dream.

keep dreaming, when u wake up we go know. Mr political calculator.

@OP There could be some truth in your postulations. Its obvious some under current movement have been noticed lately! I pity those who only rely on what they read in the papers or on Nairaland to form political analysis. Those of us who have insiders amongst them know that things are already starting to shape up

REHOZIBAH: @OP There could be some truth in your postulations. Its obvious some under current movement have been noticed lately! I pity those who only rely on what they read in the papers or on Nairaland to form political analysis. Those of us who have insiders amongst them know that things are already starting to shape up

Jonathan is toast! He can have the vote from South-east and South-south to himself.

I know what will happen in southwest. And I know PDP is toast over here.

^^ And what if Fashola is a ruse?

What if the desire to not overheat the polity dictates a desire to use. Amaechi? What if Amaechi is annointed to face Jonathan with Lamido his vice? The Ijaw suddenly find themselves alone as the currently marginalized Urhobo, Itsekiri etc will counter them, many easterners and Amaechi's rivers people will also counter them and YET, the SS gets its 8 years! The original pdp rotational presidency is also adhered to so no section will feel marginalised!

GEJ and PEJ won't find a rock big enough to hide under, OBJ will gleefully tug his ears on TV as both are bundled into ignominy and everyone will be satisfied! Then Ijaw militants will find their own SOE commence!

The possibilities are endless! The kids who feel this will end well for GEJ seem to me, to be running high fevers

Very Accurate! For me it is anybody but Jonathan

nuclearboy: ^^ And what if Fashola is a ruse?

What if the desire to not overheat the polity dictates a desire to use. Amaechi? What if Amaechi is annointed to face Jonathan with Lamido his vice? The Ijaw suddenly find themselves alone as the currently marginalized Urhobo, Itsekiri etc will counter them, many easterners and Amaechi's rivers people will also counter them and YET, the SS gets its 8 years! The original pdp rotational presidency is also adhered to so no section will feel marginalised!

GEJ and PEJ won't find a rock big enough to hide under, OBJ will gleefully tug his ears on TV as both are bundled into ignominy and everyone will be satisfied! Then Ijaw militants will find their own SOE commence!

The possibilities are endless! The kids who feel this will end well for GEJ seem to me, to be running high fevers

I still believe Amaechi will have a say in who becomes the President. Politics is a chess game these days. Jonathan is a kindergartener when it comes to the game of politics. The smartest person around Jonathan (Anehni) is running from pillar to goal post. Anehni knows what is coming. That is why he's been clamouring for support for Jonathan by appealing to IBB, Obasanjo, and Abdulsalami. The same people who are currently having cold war with Jonathan.

2014 is gonna be an interesting year in Nigeria.

My question is still: what have these guys done with our last votes to warrant their their fervent new schemes for another votes!?

payless:

I still believe Amaechi will have a say in who becomes the President. Politics is a chess game these days. Jonathan is a kindergartener when it comes to the game of politics. The smartest person around Jonathan (Anehni) is running from pillar to goal post. Anehni knows what is coming. That is why he's been clamouring for support for Jonathan by appealing to IBB, Obasanjo, and Abdulsalami. The same people who are currently having cold war with Jonathan.

2014 is gonna be an interesting year in Nigeria.

It's very clear that you still don't know what Nigerian politics is. How on earth will you say that Ameachi has a say who becomes president? Or any single individual for that matter? That is a very very poor judgment. As far as politics is concern, Ameachi, Aliyu and even murtala nyako are still puppies.

Why do people want to "bury" PDP?
I thought we were tired of being a one-party state.
Do we want to trade one slave master for another?
Smh.
2015 will be a very interesting year.

"Suddenly," most of what @payless wrote in the op is panning out.

Hmm.

P34c3

GEJ is a political neophyte he does not know the game well. He surrounded himself with liars and allowed himself to be used against the masses. Increase in fuel price on a new year eve was his first undoing. Pardon for Alamasea another blunder. Open fight with Amech a great error, bluffing asset declaration a terrible mistake, i can assure you GEJ may not get patience vote come 2015. Some people believe he can rig himself but rigging is easy with popular opinion you cant foist yourself on people.
Instead of working tirelessly like Amech, Oshiomole, Fashola and allow us to beg him he was listen to Madam Okonjo Iweela doom prediction of IMF and world bank.

Now the BIG PICTURE is NOW CLEARER THAN EVER.


GEJ, Welcome to Pol Science 101 9ja Class.

duwdu: "Suddenly," most of what @payless wrote in the op is panning out.

Hmm.

P34c3

The game of politics is not for political rookies like Jonathan and the thieves who surround him. Anehni knows better and he's doing everything possible to have Jonathan nominated as PDP consensus candidate. In a free and fair convention, Jonathan couldn't survive agaisnt any Northern candidate backed by Northern big wigs. The writing is already on the wall for the smart one in Jonathan's camp to see. By this time of 2014, all the Northern politicians who are currently loyal to Jonathan will leave Jonathan's camp for an annoited Northern candidate believed to be Sule Lamido. If it wasn't for the gentleman's agreement Jonathan had with some of these Northern governors in 2010, Jonathan wouldn't have won at the convention. It was Obasanjo who brokered the agreement. As a matter of fact, Obasanjo announced it at the convention that brought Jonathan as PDP nominee. The video is there on youtube.

The PDP constitution is favorably drafted to favor the North when choosing Presidential candidate. The PDP constitution also allows the North to dominate the National Assembly in case they plan to impeach a Southern President or defend a Northern President against any threat of impeachment from the Southern legislators. More than 70% of delegates from PDP are from the North; especially North-west and North-east. You do not want to fight the North when they unite against common enemy (Jonathan).

Jonathan is a dead man walking.

We'd see where their so-called political sophistication will lead them. The person they are trying to fight is not even in the ring yet and they have almost exhausted their firepower. What more can they do? Try and impeach GEJ? Concede power to the Southwest in 2015? Assassinate the President?

The shortest cut to the North having the presidency is by allowing GEJ have a second term. For all their political sophistication, these lackeys do not seem to understand this simple arithmetic. They just misfired again, now they would have to beg to have the presidency in 2019.

Buhahahaha

fish has nothing 2 do with a raincoat, since i dnt vote, if dem like mek dem vote 4 Garba lawal or nwazuruke since dem go lead well e no concern Me oh

However they push away this kindergarten president is fine by me.

Most of us keen observers knew it was definitely gonna come to this.

The president was too damn thirsty for power and went about getting it in a manner that had even the most politically clueless actors scratching their heads in disbelief.

Jonathan is and will always be a sucker. He knows very little about the intricacies involve in presidential level politicking. Yes, he's the president, but he occupies that position only out of sheer luck.

Let me see how his overbearing and intrusive wife with an ego the size of a cosmic black hole is gonna save him.






Death to PDP! We can toast to that!!

tokunboh: We'd see where their so-called political sophistication will lead them. The person they are trying to fight is not even in the ring yet and they have almost exhausted their firepower. What more can they do? Try and impeach GEJ? Concede power to the Southwest in 2015? Assassinate the President?

The shortest cut to the North having the presidency is by allowing GEJ have a second term. For all their political sophistication, these lackeys do not seem to understand this simple arithmetic. They just misfired again, now they would have to beg to have the presidency in 2019.

I agree with you Tokunboh and I am amazed at how many people cannot see this. The north has actually boxed itself into a corner with this PDP factionalization since Jona' will easily pick the PDP ticket now.

If as some commentators here have said the new PDP settles for either Ameachi or any other southern candidate and Jonathan loses in 2015, then we will be here again in 2019 talking about the incumbent president agreeing and signing to a single-term pact with the north.

If the worst case scenario does not happen and Jonathan wins, then he could as well hand over to the Igbos in 2019 since the north did not support him in 2015.

If the PDP faction (PDM in reality) picks a presidential candidate from the north, the party will likely share the northern votes with the APC which is poised to pick a northener as its candidate. Jona' will win massively down south and pick some of the votes from the north (Benue, Plateau, Adamawa, Taraba, Kwara and Kogi). If on the other hand, PDM picks its candidate from the south, that candidacy cannot fly as he (or she) will be seen as a spoiler for Jona'. The game is really between APC and Jonathan, and APC can only swing it if it picks a southern candidate.

Either way, the Arewa agenda this time around, is dead on arrival!