The political albatross of opposition parties in Nigeria
is their inability to transcend personal, regional and
ethnic divisions for meaningful cooperation and
handshake across the Niger.
Ethnic considerations used to be the major issue in
Nigerian politics with religion being a secondary
factor but the debacle caused by Nigeria’s purported
induction into Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC)
, relentless Evangelization by pentecostals, Muslim
radicalization and introduction of political sharia
changed everything.
Since the 1990s, Nigeria lost whatever innocence it
had left and allowed religion to be the defining and
dominant fault line in the country’s socio-political
landscape.
Then came the Yar’Adua effect – the reinforcement of
the “born to rule” attitude, unguarded statements,
wanton acts of impunity and unconstitutional
usurpation of powers when President Yar’Adua
became terminally ill sent very wrong signals to the
southern electorate.
The largely Christian South saw the actions of the
Yar’adua cabal as an affront, a final assault and a
kind of in your face insult to its collective psyche.
It forced a reflective fall back into the realization that
all four Southern Christian Heads of State or
Presidents the country has produced owed their
inaugural ascension to accidental factors.
The undisguised humiliation of Goodluck Jonathan
during those uncertain times was the break point, it
brewed a simmering discontent among Southerners
which any politician aspiring to the presidency
ignores it at his own peril.
The lessons learned is reflected in the election of
Jonathan and the shut out of Buhari in the South.
Those lessons must never be lost on any Northerner
interested in presidential politics going forward.
The results of the 2011 presidential election exposed
an electoral map showing hidden undercurrents of
increasing regional, ethnic, and religious polarization,
the like of which we have never seen.
Many politicians, opinion leaders and pundits will like
to downplay the inconvenient truths and hidden
realities of religion and ethnicity as demonstrated by
the voting pattern and demographics of the 2011
election. However, the realities and truths of our
ethnic and religious chasms remain obvious to
discerning minds regardless of the Orwellian exercise
in political correctness and rhetoric of dismissal that
has become fashionable.
Arguably, the middle belt (North Central States) has
always been the political bellwether region of
Nigerian politics.
The core determinant of where the power pendulum
swings in presidential elections, is in the political
leaning of the North Central states. Before the
formation of APC, any presidential candidate who
wins the middle-belt wins the election because the
Southwest always vote for its own regional party.
With the merger of opposition parties to form the
APC, the equation is about to change.
Jonathan’s election, on his own accord is a watershed
in the annals of Nigerian politics. It puts paid to the
notion of Northern hegemony and even if it ever
existed, it has run its course and outlived its
usefulness. Despite the massive discontent over
Jonathan’s violation of the PDP zoning agreement
and the political structures set up to wrestle power
from him and return it to the north, he won in a
landslide. T
he outcome of the election signals an emergent
ethno-religious consensus stoked by the likes of Ayo
Oritsejafor for the Christian South and Mallam
Adamu Ciroma under the umbrella of Northern
Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) and the Arewa
Consultative Forum (ACF).
The activities of these Northern groups heated up the
already fragile polity, it served as a rallying point for
Northerners and achieved the outcome of galvanizing
the Middle Belt and Southern States for Jonathan.
This dichotomy led to bigotry by religious leaders –
instructing their member to vote candidates of their
respective religious affiliations. The powerful
Christian leaders of the South instructed their
followers to vote their faith at the elections.


Source
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