On the second of February I posted an article titled "The looming battle for Anambra state" in which I predicted that the PDP would never unite under their formidable structure to win the governorship of Anambra state. As I now write this article, less than two weeks to the election, the PDP is still divided and still in court and in my opinion, in spite of the hundreds of millions now spent by Arthur Eze to back Tony Nwoye, the PDP is effectively out of this race. Back in February, Victor Umeh was still milking and romancing Ifeanyi Ubah, Ngige was still conducting the repulsive charade of consultation with the people even as he prepares to represent the ACN in the future governorship election. Soludo was equally scheming in the background for a way in, knowing that there was no partway for him in the PDP as the Ubas were certain to frustrate his attempts this time around. Peter Obi had managed to buy a bogus judgment from an Enugu based renegade judge against Victor Umeh, and was secretly parading Oseloka Obaze as his chosen successor even though he did not mean a single word about it.

Fast forward nine months since that article, I have written a few more on this subject since, but I have remained very consistent in my observation on what will be the outcome. But before we go any further, perhaps let us recount the significant things that have happened. Ifeanyi Ubah continued to pay his monthly ransom to Victor Umeh and Uzu Awka as well as Umeh's court fees, and then the man was broke, completely broke that he simply could no longer afford the ransom or the ongoing inflated judicial bribery money and so he wisely bolted to the Labour party. Expectedly Umeh became victorious at the Appeals Court and Peter Obi was forced to come back on his knees, no, I'll take that back; he wasn't on his knees, he has Anambra state checkbook with him. Before Peter swallowed his pride and called Umeh, Soludo moved in fast and paid a very hefty ransom to Umeh with the promise or rather guarantee of the governorship ticket. I've heard numbers of around two hundred and fifty million naira.

When all hopes were completely lost, Peter obi sought the reunion with Victor Umeh to once again give him the control of the legitimate APGA. The Anglican bishop of Awka mediated this marriage of convenience between Obi and Umeh. From the onset it was clear that Umeh wanted a once-in-a-lifetime payday and demanded two billion naira, but, of course, Obi is never the sort of man that throws money around. In the end, it still cost more than four hundred million naira to settle Umeh on one condition; that Umeh should forget the idea of Soludo (Obi's good friend) as the candidate. In the same vein, Umeh gave his condition; that Obi should forget the idea of Obaze as the candidate. Surely they devised a means, and sent both Soludo and Obaze to Abuja for screening in a pre-arranged plot to disqualify both and clear the way for Peter's real chosen candidate. On the Obaze issue, Umeh was only a convenient excuse. I had known of the plot to bring in Obiano months earlier, and had warned those in Obaze camp that such was coming, but they did not take my warning seriously.

As the other gladiators were fighting to emerge from their various parties, the ACN and the CPC joined hands along with ANPP to form a mega opposition party under the new umbrella of APC. They went to Abuja, forced Annie Okonkwo to step down, and declared Ngige the sole candidate for Anambra. They had miscalculated; a man by the name Ezeemo had the control of majority of the new party delegates at Awka, and when he insisted on a primary, they simply opened up a free-for-all voting primary to the public at large across the state to take advantage of Ngige's popularity. As expected, Ngige won hands down and is now the APC candidate. So after all these maneuverings, where are we now? Well, the race remains between Ngige (APC), Obiano (APGA), Nwoye? (PDP), and Ubah (Labour) There are still another twenty or so candidates from various parties, a couple of them are my personal friends, but I have limited my commentary to those with a fighting chance.

I had watched the debates, observed the campaigns, and read as much as I could all the propagandas and innuendos including how many virgins have been buried at Okija, Olumba Olumba, Mountain of Fire, Ojawo ememe ministries, Edi Nnogu's former shrine, Ogboni, Amork, Eckanka, Freemason, Illuminati, Marine shrine, Agulu lake, Oguta lake, River Niger, and all the human heads stored at various hotels in Onitsha in preparation for this upcoming governorship election. Some told me that they have already won this election in the spirit, only waiting for its manifestation in real life. Akuko! The bottom line is that as at today, Ngige remains the overwhelming favorite to win this election. None of my good friends believe that this is possible. Perhaps there is something they know that I don't know. I have been told from the highest levels that President Jonathan would not allow APC to get a foothold anywhere in the Southeast. I think it is a valid argument and I have written about it in an earlier article. But I wonder what sort of magic they intend to pull now that it is becoming increasingly clear that Ngige is cruising to a massive victory in less than two weeks.

I drove across Anambra on Friday and saw firsthand how virtually all billboards of Willie Obiano has been defaced by ordinary Anambra citizens in every community I visited. Our governor, campaigning with Obiano, have been repeatedly pelted with pure water at Onitsha market and elsewhere. Several traders associations are openly declaring for Ngige despite threats from their leaders. Just a couple of days ago, Obi attended a Catholic prayer vigil at Uke attended by thousands, and when he attempting to appeal for a vote for APGA was shouted down, instead they shouted Ngige! Onwaaaa! In the end, rather than listen to the security men with the governor, they went into frenzy where more than thirty people lost their lives. The handwriting, it seems, is on the wall, and it now appears that only God would stop this ongoing Ngige madness in Anambra state. But it seems that even God does not wish to weigh in on this fight. Recently there was a false rumor that Ngige slapped a Rev. Father, apparently an attempt to draw the wrath of the very powerful Catholic Church against him, but the Catholic bishop said they have no problem with Ngige, that the allegation was false.

I have maintained from the beginning that I am not a friend of Ngige, I have never even met the man. If anything, most of his opponents are my friends, and quite frankly, I am too big to write any article for any individual or party for money. But I do keep it straight and honest even if my friends are offended as is often the case. When Ngige was still with CAN, many argued that Anambra people would never allow a Yoruba party to rule Anambra. When he became the candidate of APC, many said it is a party of Muslims and Anambra people will never allow Muslims to rule Anambra. The ugly truth is that the average man in the streets of Awka, Onitsha, Nnewi, and so forth does not see it this way. They had tasted Ngige before and were charmed by him and they wanted him back regardless of which party he represents. As I wrote in an earlier article, I never liked the man once I read about his Okija escapade with Chris Uba. But it seems that the man learnt his lessons, especially after his kidnapping ordeal, and has won the people's heart, and in my opinion, that is true politics and he deserves to win.

Frankly, as an Igbo man, I would have loved to see some remnants of what Ojukwu built. But indications are that if APGA fails to win this Anambra governorship election, it would effectively be the very end of APGA as a viable political party. Without Okorocha or Obi to see them through, the handful of APGA members in the National Assembly would most likely be flushed out by 2015 election. I had argued repeatedly that by failing to hold local government elections, APGA was failing in the necessary task and opportunity to build a formidable structure required to win statewide elections. So far that lack of structure has cost them all 6 senatorial elections they contested since they came into power in 2006. Politics is not rocket science, these things are very elementary. Apparently Governor Peter Obi wanted to eat his cake and have it, but it does not work like that. Even the party chairman, Victor Umeh, has lamented publicly that by failing to conduct elections, that "Peter Obi has murdered APGA" That is a serious indictment coming from the chairman of the party. If they already know this, is APGA trying to pull a miracle out of this election? It would be a miracle indeed, but not if the common Anambra voters have something to do with it. Based on what I have seen and encountered in Anambra lately, this is not an exaggeration.

Michael Nnebe is a former Wall Street Investment Banker and the Author of several novels, including; Every Dream Has A Price, Riverside Park, Blood Covenant, Gloomy Shadows, Passing wishes, Prime Suspect, and others.

You would have to understand that election on the internet and the pages of the newspapers is different from the politics on ground. Ngige won the debate(to some people) and has campaigned well "e-wise" but at the end of the day the populace who will vote in the next week election neithe read the dailies nor watched the debate.

This is my prediction for for the Anambra state election:
PDP AND APGA will come first and second in no respective order'
APC will come third.

It's not a sentimental prediction but one which that was made going with the results of the strike.
Have we forgotten Ondo state in such a hurry?
After all the noise Akeredolu came third behind Oke and Mimiko.

If Ngige wins it is not bad. But there is a lot of odds against Ngige. He might only win in idemmili.

Its very unfortunate that our mindset have degenerated to the extent that we cannot make a good choice of leadership in Anambra state! We no longer think about the future , we no longer think about leaders that will be role models for our children and youths, all we focus on is what we will gain financially. I wonder how many of these people campaigning for some politicians in Anambra will be proud if there sons/daughters choose those politicians as role models! All is politics abi? The earlier we start looking for credible and people with high integrity for leadership positions the better for our state. The most important thing(s), that we should look out for about these candidates are LIFESTYLE,INTEGRITY AND HIS VISION FOR THE STATE and not what they are promising us now!We should also take into consideration the calibre of individuals or characters that these contestants are parading with(show me your friends and i will tell who you are).

We have passsed the stage where questionable characters parade themselves as messiah!!!

God forbid a boko haram party in the Anambra govt house.Next week anambrarians shall decide not e-warriors on nairaland and the new Governor shall be unveiled.

mekaboy: If Ngige wins it is not bad. But there is a lot of odds against Ngige. He might only win in idemmili.

Even at Idemili, he will not win. We are from the same place just that am from the south. At eke Awka in Awka Etiti, his billboard is there but I bet you, they will vote an Ubah over Ngige. Watch and see.

Its APGA,APC,PDP,LP.

mekaboy: Its APGA,APC,PDP,LP.

No bro, its APGA,APC,LP and then PDP. If APGA loses this election, i will never comment on Nairaland again! Quote me!! We on ground are not even bothered because we know that this election has already been won by APGA. APC can continue winning online and in Nairaland.

kingbang:

No bro, its APGA,APC,LP and then PDP. If APGA loses this election, i will never comment on Nairaland again! Quote me!! We on ground are not even bothered because we know that this election has already been won by APGA. APC can continue winning online and in Nairaland.

Sorry, I don't mean to be rude, but did you open your Nairaland account just for Anambra state election and to campaign for APGA?

Ngige
Ifeanyi Ubah
Obiano
Nwoye



in that order, election has been reduced to Ngige vs Ngige. Expect a landslide

The best article I have read so far in this Anambra Election debacle.

All I know is, "ma etelu ugba, ma etelu azu, onwa ga enwe mmeri!"

Desric: Sorry, I don't mean to be rude, but did you open your Nairaland account just for Anambra state election and to campaign for APGA?

That is to tell you how confident i am on Obiano's chances. My account will still be on after November 16, i don't know about yours though.

@OP

If it takes either God or doubly massive rigging of election to stop the asswipe called Ngige, I say so be it. I had rather hand over all Igbo land to a market woman from Igbo land than to vote Ngige, houseboy of a Yoruba drug baron turned political leader, into a position of dogcatcher in Onicha Market.

kingbang:

No bro, its APGA,APC,LP and then PDP. If APGA loses this election, i will never comment on Nairaland again! Quote me!! We on ground are not even bothered because we know that this election has already been won by APGA. APC can continue winning online and in Nairaland.

Dreamer! If wishes were horses

Clerverly:

Dreamer! If wishes were horses

Yoruba boy, are you willing to place a bet on that? Please go to mekaboy's thread, lets do this.

DerideGull: @OP

If it takes either God or doubly massive rigging of election to stop the asswipe called Ngige, I say so be it. I had rather hand over all Igbo land to a market woman from Igbo land than to vote Ngige, houseboy of a Yoruba drug baron turned political leader, into a position of dogcatcher in Onitsha Market.

APGA will win..

Willy will win..

DerideGull: @OP

If it takes either God or doubly massive rigging of election to stop the asswipe called Ngige, I say so be it. I had rather hand over all Igbo land to a market woman from Igbo land than to vote Ngige, houseboy of a Yoruba drug baron turned political leader, into a position of dogcatcher in Onicha Market.

Its funny how losers usually resort to tribalism, lies and abuse just to make a point. You Dede have refused to accept the truth that APC is doing well everywhere and every successful Governor has fallen out with PDP. Be it Amaechi or Lamido who of course are their best. I've never seen Amaechi or Lamido involved in tribalism or religious intolerance but everything about your APGA and PDP is religion and tribe. I thank God for giving us people like Ngige, Rochas, Amaechi, Lamido, Fashola, Oshiomole etc. They are the hope we have in leadership as far as Nigeria is concerned.

Its common knowledge here in anambra,many are dissappointed with obi's government
Never mind all those 'up apga up apga' thugs we see here online,most of them dont stay in anmbra nor have voters card,the real voters are the village women and men and traders who are all in love with onwa
Infact obiano abi na obianu is just a figment of obi imagination,dosent exist here,people dont even include him in their talks
all his posters are being defaced everywhere

The writer of this article is an articulate person and not a 'hungry' type like the bunch of followers of Obi and his Willy.

Nna let this election come and go so that we can regain our sanity and peace in Anambra state once more.
My only prayer is that the election MUST NOT BE RIGGED.
That's all.

I must confess that this the best analysis of the Anambra political debacle i have read. @op, thanks for the good job. Please, expect the ubiquitious APGA footsoldiers to abuse you. Its normal with them, but doesnt change those facts.

Well said.

DerideGull: @OP

If it takes either God or doubly massive rigging of election to stop the asswipe called Ngige, I say so be it. I had rather hand over all Igbo land to a market woman from Igbo land than to vote Ngige, houseboy of a Yoruba drug baron turned political leader, into a position of dogcatcher in Onicha Market.

And all this screaming is from your basement apartment in Idaho? If Americans were as dumb and myopic as urself would you have chosen a foreign homeland to die in instead of Alaigbo?

kingbang:

Yoruba boy, are you willing to place a bet on that? Please go to mekaboy's thread, lets do this.

Igbo Boy, I am not a gambler but a successful business man! If you need cash for your drinking spree, just beckon. But o ga eme gi vom na-anya

Lolzzz...
Ngige's claim to fame...... Massively rigged election that made him governor
Ngige's cclaim to fame..... The man who has not sponsored or co-sponsored any bill for 3yrs in the national assembly.

Ngige will never ever be governor again in Anambra state cos the electorate is wiser and would protect their votes jealously

Advise for Ngige.... Go and contest for lagos state governorship seat.

frankyychiji: Lolzzz...
Ngige's claim to fame...... Massively rigged election that made him governor
Ngige's cclaim to fame..... The man who has not sponsored or co-sponsored any bill for 3yrs in the national assembly.

Ngige will never ever be governor again in Anambra state cos the electorate is wiser and would protect their votes jealously

Advise for Ngige.... Go and contest for lagos state governorship seat.

Vote for DR CHRIS NGIGE,the man with great wisdom,competent and experience to take anambra to apex...dnt vote with sentiment,party..this is our future,let's protect and save it not party.

Well since baba God no go come down come vote or count d vote, am guessing rigging is d only problem. U better plan well cos u'll need every strategy u got.

gerald09: Well since baba God no go come down come vote or count d vote, am guessing rigging is d only problem. U better plan well cos u'll need every strategy u got.

Dr Ngige is a master rigger have u forgotten? How do u think he became governor? Did he not steal obi's mandate?