RANDOM MUSINGS ON 2015 ELECTIONS......

FACTORS/ISSUES:

1. Religion...With the threat of Boko Haram, religious crisis...there is a distrust in the electorates of the two major religions in Nigeria. Many southerners will not be disposed to vote Buhari or the APC whom they view as sentimental to religious bigots. As well many Northerners feel they or someone of their faith deserves the Presidency since Yar'Adua did not spend his time fully after Obasanjo. Nigeria unfortunately, in this age and time, is still divided alongside religious lines.

2. Ethinicism: Just like Religion, this plays a major role in the psyche of the electorates. Denying the existence of ethnic politics in Nigeria will be like denying the existence of water in the Atlantic ocean. Before and after the elections of 2011, many of the arguments centered on whether or not the Northerners should be allowed to complete their tenure after Yar'Adua's death. That issue is still open and the North will want to reclaim the Presidency. The Southern Easterners voted en bloc for Jonathan in 2011, expect a repeat in 2015

3. Corruption: Many Nigerians are aware that the main issue with Nigeria's little or no development is the cancerous effect of corruption. Jonathan's government has not helped matters in this regard and Buhari is going to make a big issue of it. A lot of people in this twittering and facebooking generation will listen to them, should they focus on zero tolerance of corruption.

4. Geopolitical configuration of Nigeria: At present, Nigeria has 36 states, and to win the Presidency, a candidate must have won at least 25% in 2/3 of the states in Nigeria according to the electoral Act as amended. Jonathan did well in the North in 2011 but who knows how well he will fare in 2015 considering the issues above. Now, the North East and the North West have six states a piece. North Central which is where the VP comes from has six too. Should the North East and North West decide to Vote for APC, they would have gotten 12/18, with 13 to go. Now shift to the South West where their alliance under the APC may or may not give them the six states in that region too. The main battle ground is the South East which played a dominant role in the election of 2011. Should the APC field an Igbo VP, it may go either way. This is why it may be important to PDP that APC or Ngige does not win the Anambra state guber election. Already, the APC has a governor in Imo state. PDP should say Bye Bye to 2015 should Ngige win or should any other Governor joins Amechi's G19.

5. Division in PDP...with the emergence of the new PDP and all the court cases and battles, it will be a difficult election if the PDP does not put its house in order before middle of 2014. A house that is divided amongst itself cannot stand. The new PDP now has a G7 which is the seven group of governors that has recognized the Baraje led faction. Though the matter is now settled in court, but has it been settled within the feuding factions?

6. Governors' Forum: The governors played an important role in 2011 and their influence in 2015 should not be underestimated. Currently, there are two factions in the Governors' forum. Governor Amechi leads 19 while Governor Jang leads 16. Of the 9 with Amechi, 7 are already in the G7 and all of them are tilting towards the opposition. If the tide is not stemmed, their may be further drifting unless many of them are not going to run for another term in office.

7. Issue of sovereign national conference: Should the Jonathanian government goes ahead to organize this conference before the 2015 elections, it will create so many uproars, divisions and distractions that may affect the general elections. And nobody knows to whose advantage the effects may tilt.
For the sake of history and posterity, Jonathan should do all he can to make sure that his government does not preside over the disintegration of Nigeria.
Depending on how the electorates react in 2015, the issues above will have an effect. Jonathan however should know that no incumbent president has lost a reelection in Nigeria before.