THE G-7 Governors in the New-PDP that announced its merger with the opposition All Progressive Congress (APC) are expected to bring into the new party their followers and bolster the chances of the APC in the next round of elections.

However, the long-drawn battle they had with the PDP leadership, and the wielding of the big stick by the government in power at the centre may have weakened the grip of the governors on the party structures in their states.

Indeed, the PDP structures in the states had been taken away from a number of them while the struggle to effect reforms in the party lasted. Returning these structures was one of the demands of the governors on the PDP leadership, headed by President Goodluck Jonathan.

Thus, the governors have to start from the scratch, to erect formidable structures for the APC that could rival or surpass the ones they are leaving behind in the PDP.

So, barring volte face from any of the governors — note Governor Babangida Aliyu’s refutal of being part of the merger yesterday — what are their electoral worth or strength and relevance in the new scheme?

Sule Lamido (Jigawa)

HE is one the most valuable assets the PDP had in the North. He sees Jigawa State as a political turf that he has long captured and knew inside out.

In 2010, he supported Jonathan’s presidency when sectional and religious divides had set in against the allegation that the president was “usurping” the North’s turn in the presidency of the country.

The governor demonstrated his clout when he delivered the state completely to the PDP in both the gubernatorial and presidential elections in 2011.

Lamido’s knack in grassroots mobilisation is a factor that would make the PDP hold on tight to him. His command of respect amongst northern politicians and traditional rulers, aside from his known contacts across the country, is an asset that no party can easily wish away.

Being a second-term governor, he has been seen to have ambition in the presidential race. Lamido’s headache will be whether the APC is the perfect platform for him to run, as the complex interests in the party make it too deep a risk for him to take.

However, in the event that he finally decides not to contest for the presidency and opts to move over with his supporters to the APC, the hard fact remains that Lamido will deliver the state to the APC whether in the presidential or governorship election.

Sources say it is in recognition of this that the PDP has not tampered with its structure, largely under Lamido’s control, in Jigawa State.

With the deep connection between him and the Jigawa electorate, coupled with his ability to mobilise and galvanise support, it is believed that whichever party Lamido identifies with will seal up the state.

Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers)

AMAECHI is arguably the most troubled of the G-7 governors. Almost all the structures needed to aid a governor in his political quest in a state had been taken from him.

The recent court judgment, which upheld the chairmanship of Chief Obuah Amaechi Felix as the duly recognised chairman of Rivers State PDP, has tossed off the chances of Governor Amaechi to reclaim the party structures.

Even the state’s Commissioner of Police, Matthew Mbu, whose actions have become questionable in the state, having been accused at several fora of acting out the script of the Presidency, has made governance difficult for the incumbent governor.

Amaechi’s perceived fight with President Jonathan has taken a long personal tone with the supervising Minister for Education, Nyesom Wike, thus, dealing political blows to Amaechi with the assumed support of the Presidency and the Police.

Wike, who is said to be interested in the governorship of the state in 2015, had boasted to have structures spread across the state and he seems set for the battle ahead, especially with the Chief Obuah state party executive sympathetic to his cause.

Going against Governor Amaechi, if he does not sort out things and regain control of the political structure in his state, is the fact that most political bigwigs in the state are in the PDP, including his benefactor, Dr. Peter Odili, who has not had it rosy since Amaechi’s ascension as governor.

The influence of the PDP in the oil-rich state is so massive that it will take a miracle for the APC to make any inroads in Rivers come 2015.

Therefore, it may be considered safe to assert that Amaechi is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. The APC with Amaechi in Rivers will be difficult to fly.

Murtala Nyako (Adamawa)

IT is the speculation for many that Adamawa State would provide the perfect spectacle for a showdown in 2015, as the political fever in the state will be pitch high.

The stage is set for the “grand battle” between Nyako and the PDP national chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur.

While the electorate on the one hand would have a major say, the Adamawa’s political gladiators, who are numerous and versatile, will have a major say also.

One thing that may aid Tukur is the federal might he would be coming into the battle with. But for Nyako, whose weakness is reportedly the disenchantment of major politicians with his administration, how well he embarks on realigning and appeasing these stakeholders may hold the key to his electoral fortune.

So, all eyes are on both the governor and Tukur to see who could push for the governorship election, as their children’s ambition was an added reason to the crisis in the PDP in Adamawa.

Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara)

WITH Governor Ahmed in agreement with his godfather and new leader of Kwara politics, Senator Bukola Saraki, it would be a smooth ride for the APC.

The Sarakis’ hold onto the politics of power in Kwara is one that permeates the state.

With the death of the elder Saraki, Dr. Olusola Saraki, the famed ‘Oloye’, and the eventual ascension to the throne by Senator Saraki, there seems to have been a transfer of power to a younger generation even with no known ideology.

There is no gainsaying that the Sarakis have gotten used to dominating the state over the years with little or no dissent in the affairs of the state, especially politically.

Governor Ahmed seems to understand this dynamics perfectly well and has effectively managed his relationship with his erstwhile boss, Senator Saraki, and thus holding firmly to power in the state.

With this union, it would be difficult to see the PDP making hay if Ahmed moves to the APC. And just as Kwara got delivered to the PDP from the APP in 2003, so will the state be easily handed over to the APC.

For Governor Ahmed, he is set to go and all sweet sailing it shall be for him, especially since he will be re-contesting come 2015.

Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano)

IN Kano, the electorate, rather than politicians, are the ones who determine the political swing of the state in any election. Individuals seem to excite the Kano people and not political parties, especially close knit ones.

There was a recent open hijack of the party structures by the Tukur-led national leadership, which sent in a caretaker committee, led by Hassan Kafayos and backed by an archrival of Kwankwaso, Ambassador Aminu Wali, to conduct fresh elections at the detriment of the Kwankwaso-backed Adamu Aliyu Sumaila committee whose tenure had expired.

This all but sent the warning signal to Kwankwaso, who now knows that the chess game is on.

For the governor to make headway in Kano, however, he has to mend fences with some political foes, especially the wing led by former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau, a founding member of the APC who has been loyal to the party.

Analysts opine that with the deep-seated animosity between the duo, and with the sudden swell up in the returnee wing of the PDP, it may be a hard nut to crack for Kwankwaso, who definitely would like to enthrone a successor.

Besides, he is said to have his eyes on a Senate seat in 2015.

However, the very unpredictable Kano electorate will largely determine whether the PDP or APC will emerge victorious at the end of the day. It would then take the extra sense for Kwankwaso to soar.

But the re-alignments going on at the moment in Kano suggests that the PDP would not allow Kano to be easily hijacked by the APC.

Magatakada Wamakko (Sokoto)

THE people of Sokoto State toed along with Wamakko after he emerged the PDP candidate in the merger between the ANPP and the PDP in 2007. Since then, the opposition has remained largely quiet in the state, allowing the PDP, through Wamakko, to take the shine.

As at today, with deepened structures and massive political support across the state, one governor that will definitely move to the APC is Wamakko.

His actions in recent time, coupled with his unforgiving remarks as it concerns the Bamanga Tukur-led leadership of the party, and also his romance with the APC chieftains, suggest that it is a straight party for the governor and his men when they decide to contest.

For Wamakko, it will be a cruise with the APC in 2015.

Babangida Aliyu (Niger)

CHIEF Servant Babangida Aliyu may not be in a tight situation like some of his rebel governors. However, his seeming blurred aspiration in 2015, very loquacious nature and uncertain political permutations are pitching him against himself.

Forced to come out to again identify with the G-7 Governors and the New-PDP when he obviously attempted to ‘slow down’ his union with the groups, Aliyu is clearly playing some game of wits and caution.

Unlike some of his peers that one can easily put one’s cash on, Aliyu is not to be cashed on, according to knowledgeable sources.

This is so because the Niger governor will be the last to leave the PDP.

With reports suggesting that former governor, Abdulkadir Kure and PDP BoT chieftain, Prof. Jerry Gana, have been positioned to take over the state party structure and machinery if he leaves the PDP, there are speculations that while not minding to move over to the APC, Aliyu would not wish to see such politicians take over the PDP machinery from him for fear of the unknown.

For now, the state’s PDP machinery is under the governor’s control, even as it is said that some PDP chieftains in the state have begun mobilising in preparation for Aliyu’s departure.

Whether or not he may have his interest in 2015 is not the issue for the governor. Sources say the governor is more concerned with enthroning a successor than allowing his political opponents to do so. “It would be suicidal,” said a source.

An insider said the last decision to be taken by the Chief Servant would be to leave the PDP, stressing that that would be shooting himself in the foot, “more so that the governor cannot vouch for the Niger State electorate, especially in the governorship election.”

Already, Aliyu’s interest to go to the Senate in 2015 has pitched him against Senator Awaisu Kuta, considered a more formidable grassroots politician and one of those anxiously waiting for the governor to make what is being termed by some as a costly move.


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