OtunbaJega:

sit at home mumuuuu... PDP apologist..dey foool urself

tonytony208:

i shared your opinion too when it was only ACN. But my trust had wanned since APC started admitting thieves (nPDP) and calling them "born again" because they have now joined APC. The same APC had condemned the nPDP while they were in PDP. That to me is like speaking from 2 sides of the mouth. They also went begging to OBJ; i mean the same OBJ they condemned vehemently earlier. Lier (lai) muhammed also contributed in no mean measure to my total rejection of APC with his consistent but glaringly insensible and insensitive stances about some of the achievements of gej government. One of them is how he argued against the irrefutable fact that the economic rebasing had made nigerian economy the largest in Africa. I mean international organizations gave credence to this, but the Lier (by name and action) feels he knows more than them all. Even if you will oppose a government, it should be done wisely. I mean there are times to oppose and there are times to rejoice with the opposition. This lack of tact has destroyed APC's image as far as i am concerned. Lai mohammed was acting like he would prefer to hear only bad news about nigeria while GEJ is in office. Then ojuyobo and his unguarded utterances and insults against his president are other derailing factors. APC governors are as corrupt as PDP governors; the only difference is that corrupt practices by one party gets broadcasted louder than that of the other. I mean, what is the idea of constructing 1km of road for 1 billion naira? Believe me, that is daylight robbery. I'm also not able to shake off the convinction that there is some kind of link btw APC and boko haram.

emiye:

Where is the landslide coming from?

emiye: How can someone be a student of election for 42 years , and come up with this analsyis.
I assume he has o year of experience in Nigeria's election.
2015 elections will be sharply divided along religious and ethnic lines in most cases.

It is 6 months + to election, but one thing that i am sure of is that there can ne no landslide win for any one who will eventually win.

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, GEJ will lose in a free and fair elections.

My reasons

(1)There would be only 1 strong northern candidate in 2015, unlike 2011 where we had 3 strong northern candidates (buhari, shekarau, ribadu) I stand to tell you that the North will definitely produce two major contenders in the person of Buhari and Atiku. You can take that to the bank. How it will happen would soon unfold.

(2) There is a stronger platform for national opposition through the APC, which still controls at least 14 states compared with 2011. Stronger platform for opposition? Yes! But not strong enough to uproot the ruling Party as the opposition is presently constituted.

(3) Virtually, all the northern PDP governors are not seeking re-election, and some might still cause rancour in PDP primaries and even defect e.g jigawa state. This exertion has not base in the PDP as virtually all trouble makers and disloyal members has been flush off. The same way APC thought PDP will crash at the exit of the 5 disloyal governor but the Party later emerge stronger.

(4) GEJ will win with landslide in Rivers, Imo and edo, but the volume of votes will decrease considerably compared with 2011 election. Are you sure APC can garner 10% of total vote in 2015 general elections in these States. Remember, the Oba of Bini sent his blessings through his son to GEJ the other day concerning 2015 and that where Edo vote will go, so Osho-baba can't deliver Edo likewise Rivers and Imo are in save kitty.

(5) GEJ will most likely fail to get 25% of votes in like 12 of the 19 northern states. List the 12 States.
(6) GEJ will struggle in the SW, he will be so lucky, if he gets 40% of the SW votes versus 58% of SW votes he got in 2011. Is it the same SW we are in? The shocking for APC will start from Lagos for your information and its revibration will not leave the whole SW the same. GEJ on point in South West.


Where is the landslide coming from? The people of Nigeria will shock APC as Ekiti-kete gave Fayose his landslide despite APC incumbency.

Shine1177: ...

[/quote]Shine1177: ...

. Kano, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa, Niger, Kebbi, Borno, Yobe, Kwara, Bauchi, Gombe. [quote]

tonytony208:

i shared your opinion too when it was only ACN. But my trust had wanned since APC started admitting thieves (nPDP) and calling them "born again" because they have now joined APC. The same APC had condemned the nPDP while they were in PDP. That to me is like speaking from 2 sides of the mouth. They also went begging to OBJ; i mean the same OBJ they condemned vehemently earlier. Lier (lai) muhammed also contributed in no mean measure to my total rejection of APC with his consistent but glaringly insensible and insensitive stances about some of the achievements of gej government. One of them is how he argued against the irrefutable fact that the economic rebasing had made nigerian economy the largest in Africa. I mean international organizations gave credence to this, but the Lier (by name and action) feels he knows more than them all. Even if you will oppose a government, it should be done wisely. I mean there are times to oppose and there are times to rejoice with the opposition. This lack of tact has destroyed APC's image as far as i am concerned. Lai mohammed was acting like he would prefer to hear only bad news about nigeria while GEJ is in office. Then ojuyobo and his unguarded utterances and insults against his president are other derailing factors. APC governors are as corrupt as PDP governors; the only difference is that corrupt practices by one party gets broadcasted louder than that of the other. I mean, what is the idea of constructing 1km of road for 1 billion naira? Believe me, that is daylight robbery. I'm also not able to shake off the convinction that there is some kind of link btw APC and boko haram.

jjcbuthot:

Shut up that pie-hole shaped smelling akpu mouth. nPDP are thieves but the other PDP govs are not, abi? Akpabio is not even when the thief wants to legalize corruption by asking for N100m annual medical allowance. One useless man asking for N100m medical allowance in a state where more than 70% of the people are living below poverty level. Or is someone telling Akwa Ibom is not like other states in Nigeria? Is Akwa Ibom like UEA where every citizens get free house, allowances, etc from government?
Stupid yi.bo...

chukwudi44: Shine1177: ...

. Kano, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa, Niger, Kebbi, Borno, Yobe, Kwara, Bauchi, Gombe.

Did he get 25% in these states in 2011? Did that stop I'm from winning the election? Abeg park well joor

vicadex07:

Lol... PHD in this Nigeria where even a mechanic can purchase certificate for a university's degree with the right amount of money. Forget all the paper qualifications he has...he's got nothing upstairs period!!! Except thiefry of course...

Even Patience I learnt was a teacher/lecturer...I wonder what will be the fate of her students will be today

emiye:

Yes, he got 25% in most of these states in 2011, when many with PDP governors were seeking for 2nd term. The political climate has changed. In fact the SS & SE jonathan support of 2011 will dwindle, at least marginally.

He needs at least 25% in 24 states and fct, do not forget that.

emiye: 1. Two major contenders in the person of Buhari and Atiku is a very remote possibility, and one in APC, and the other will be in what known platform? if Atiku, who i think is the weakest of the two moves to any other platform, he will be ineffectual.

2. Trust me the opposition is currently strong enough to uproot the PDP at the centre.

3. Do not foreclose the possibility of PDP primaries still leading to more division for PDP, remember there were 7 break away PDP gvernors, Jigawa and Niger state decided to stay back, it might be temporary.

4. i have told you PDP will win convincingly in those APC states, but they will be the worst performing states of the 11 SS/SE states. Guess, which state was the worst performing for GEJ in 2011 of the 11 SS/SE states? Edo state, the then only ACN state in all the SS/SE states.

5. Kano, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa, Niger, Kebbi, Borno, Yobe, Kwara, Bauchi, Gombe.

6. GEJ in 2011 with all the goodwill he had struggled in SW with only 58 % of SW votes, then there were also 2 incumbent PDP sw governors, and one proxy PDP in Ondo state.

He has lost goodwill in the SW, the opposition now needs to present a VP candidate from the SW.


Take note, my observation is as conservative as possible

chukwudi44:

He never got up to 25% in those states in 2011,go and check the results again.About 25% in 24 states he can easily get it from the south and middle belt.

Ikology: Liar! We are not talking about honorary awards. Show us evidence that you can by your Msc degree and consequently Phd

Shine1177:
n
1. Atiku will likely lose the bid to Buhari in APC and the vehicle to use for his ambition is PDM. Remember the clout of PDM whem it was stilll a part of PDP though a little bit whitle down but still powerful and with the moeny he has to throw around. Atiku is no push over. When he lose to Buhari in APC his departure will have great effect on APC.

2. Strong? No sir! APC is more of a media Party with a lot of PDP moles. The Party cannot go far in 2015, 2019 may be their year.

3. Aliyu Babangida is going to the Senate. Turaki will definitely contested the primary with GEJ but please do the calculation, his son's case of money laundering is an Achilles heel to him - its a proxy war.

4.. Don't let us waste time on the effect of Osho-baba, Amaechi and Okorocha in 2015. APC is not on ground in Rivers and Imo ask people living there and the threat against Osho-baba now is all pre-2015, he will be roundly pounce.

5. Kano. With a Abacha on PDP ticket forget it.
Katsina, Well, PDP will win at least 25% vote.
Sokoto. Not a close call yet. 1 hour in politics is a long time to get a surprise.
Zamfara. The gale of defection from APC to PDP in recent time is a sign to watchout for.
Jigawa. Head or Tail, Gov Turaki will have notthing to gain joining force with the opposition in his State. PDP will coast home.
Niger. Please read Aliyu Babangida body language. He will contest on PDP platform for the Senate. Don't be carry away by the G7 drama.
Kebbi. I know little about this state, so i cannot say exactly how it will go, but GEJ will get the required minimum vote here.
Borno. The SAS (Sherif) effect is a game turner brother.
Yobe. The SOE will be a plus for PDP. The politician knows how its works.
Kwara. Forget the noise Bukola Saraki is making, the people of Kwara are tired of the Saraki hegamony and suffice that he will lack the Federal might to rig as ususal.
Bauchi. Mu'azu is a game changer. Yuguda is also in GEJ camp, remember Yuguda left PDP in 2007 for ANPP with less than 3 months to election and he defeated Mu'azu and his annoined candidate, Yuguda is a 'crowd puller', Mu'azu and Yuguda has sealed APC fate here.
Gombe. The way the governor here is pounding ex-governor Goje and his APC goon is a reflection of what to expect in 2015 election. Goje can't deliver Gombe as he's the main man here.

6. The people of South West are tired of Tinubu and his sytle of godfatherism. His recent outburst against he Obas in Yorubaland at Iju[b][/b]bu the other day will surely work against him. He's so power drunk to said only 3 Obas are useful in the whole Odu'a land. The Ekiti experience is just the icing on his cake. Wait for O'daba on 9/8/2014.

#IRepEkiti

emiye:

1. Atiku on PDM platform is dead on arrival. How will he sell himself on a relatively unknown platform less than 3 months to election. He does not have a clout following like Buhari, neither does his PDM has any structure on ground.

2. APC is a media party ? Maybe what SS / SE folks will say.

3. Aliyu can not save jona, even if he goes 2 d senate, jona lost heavily there the last, turaki or lamido? you meant lamido i guess, Lamido's sons case has not stopped lamido sule 4m criticising jona. Dont completely trust those Northern PDP elements not to turn their back against GEJ at the dine minute.

4. Make no mistake those 3 governors will stem the tide of total control like in 2011, 98% in the SE, and 97% in the SS, but more importantly, they will hamper voters mobilisation of PDP and even cause reduce voters turnout.

5. Forget Abacha's son, even an incumbent governor, shekarau who contested could not win in Kano presidential polls.

Kwankwanso won on PDP ticket, Jonathan on PDP ticket could not get 25% in kano.

Most of your analysis for other states will be less consequential at the presidential elections

6. Dont be too excited abt the ekiti scenario, it is the least populated SW state, and with the least no. of voters, APC will win in Osun next week. The ekiti loss has very little to do with tinubu godfatherism. Jonathan can not get 40 % of the SW votes in 2015

Ikology: Liar! We are not talking about honorary awards. Show us evidence that you can by your Msc degree and consequently Phd

Kalvan:
Buhari 2015-2019.