former United States of America Ambassador, John Campbell, tells
BAYO AKINLOYE in this interview that his view about Nigeria has not
changed and that the country faces formidable challenges that will
either make or break it based on the choices made by Nigerians
In your critically acclaimed book, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink, you
talked about Nigeria exhibiting symptoms of a failing/fragile state.
Has your view changed?
My view has not changed about the serious challenges Nigeria faces.
I think the challenges are more pronounced than they were before the
Boko Haram insurrection began in the North. Political life is also
unsettled by the approach of the 2015 elections. The ruling party has
not yet presented a candidate. But most observers expect that the
president will seek re-election. As for the opposition party, there does
not seem to be a consensus presidential candidate.
Will you say things have gone from bad to worse since you wrote that
book?
The challenges Nigeria faces at the moment are considerable and
differ somewhat from four years ago when I wrote the book.
Considering what you wrote in your book four years ago, if you were
to revise it again, what will you add about Nigeria?
I would pay more attention to the problems of corruption. It is mind-
boggling how millions of dollars go missing. Take for instance, the
serious allegation made by the former Central Bank of Nigeria
Governor, Lamido Sanusi. He has claimed that an amount he
variously estimated at $10 billion, $20 billion and $50 billion is
unaccounted for. The Finance Minister has called for an audit, but I
do not believe the results have yet been made public.
There are different types of corruption in Nigeria. For example, there is
petty corruption. Nigerian policemen are poorly paid. At a checkpoint
you hear a policeman saying ‘Do you have anything for me today?’
Because they are poorly paid, it will be difficult for them to keep their
families without the ‘bribes’ they levy to let people pass through their
checkpoints. Another instance is where a civil servant insists on being
paid to perform a service which is supposed to be free of charge. This
type of corruption will be very difficult to deal with because it will
require a massive restructuring of salaries paid to public servants.
But, then there is the corruption where millions of dollar go missing
through rigging of contracts, money laundering or oil bunkering.
Many see your book as a doomsday prediction for Nigeria. What
exactly was the focus of the book?
In my book, the focus was to tell the American people how vastly
important the country Nigeria is to America. I should add that a few
Nigerians who see it as a prediction of the collapse of their country
are mistaken. It is a warning, however, that Nigeria’s challenges must
be addressed. Nigeria faces huge challenges. The confluence of Boko
Haram, upcoming 2015 elections and the epidemic of ethnic clashes
leave it as it were ‘dancing on the brink.’
Did you point to 2015 in your book?
So far I can recall, I did not point to 2015. There is an ‘urban legend’
in circulation among some Nigerians that, somehow, the United States
wants to see Nigeria break apart. Nothing could be further from the
truth. US policy consistently has been to support the unity of Nigeria.
My own warnings about the challenges Nigeria faces have also been
taken by some as somehow promoting Nigeria’s breakup. As a person
who knows Nigeria well, I can imagine no greater disaster.
It doesn’t appear the Federal Government is happy about the Boko
Haram situation but many Nigerians feel it is not doing enough. What
more do you think the government can do?
The Boko Haram insurgency is complex and diffuse. Boko Haram
does not appear to be a conventional political struggle. Shekau does
not speak in conventional political terms in his videos. So far as I am
aware, he never refers to “economic development.” There are also
splinter groups, such as Ansaru. Therefore, the government will need
to follow a multi-pronged strategy. I think the Federal Government
should go back and look at the recommendation by the National
Security Adviser, Sambo Dasuki, in April. These are well-thought out
long-term solutions. If the government carefully follows through, this
could be an effective approach to the insurgency.
It seems, at the moment, the Nigerian government isn’t looking at the
Dasuki recommendation. What does this portend and what are some of
the points of the recommendation?
The former national security adviser’s proposals are well-thought out
and long-term in scope. They would also require a significant
diversion of government spending. They likely will require a long time
to implement. What disappoints me is that there is no sign that
preparatory work is being done, and Dasuki’s recommendations seem
to have largely disappeared from public discourse. It is possible, of
course, that government’s preparation is going forward. If so, I wish
the Jonathan administration would publicise what it is doing.
The UK law banning sales of lethal weapons to Nigeria is still extant;
the US is hesitant on fully assisting Nigeria in the fight against
terrorism, reportedly, because of the African country’s records of
human rights violations. Is that enough to keep them away from
helping Nigeria?
Nigeria’s military human rights record is not encouraging. It’s one of
the reasons the United States of America’s assistance to the Nigerian
military is limited. Any US military assistance to Nigeria is governed
by American law, including the Leahy Amendment that requires the
US assistance to be suspended if a military unit is credibly accused of
human rights abuses.
A lot is being said about the Boko Haram insurrection, from being a
political attempt to discredit the incumbent president to being a
religious madness of some militants. Where do you think the real
cause of this violent crisis in Nigeria lies?
Boko Haram has become a political football between the governing
party and the opposition party in this pre-election period. I have
heard the allegation that the opposition party and Boko Haram
cooperate to discredit the present administration. On the other hand,
there is the allegation that Goodluck Jonathan is using Boko Haram
to prevent 2015 elections from taking place in the North. I don’t think
there’s any truth to these two scenarios. But such accusations
indicate a lack of trust among many Nigerians. The drivers of
northern alienation that Boko Haram feeds on are a sense of political
marginalisation, economic impoverishment, and resentment of security
service human rights abuses.
Why would you say one of the drivers of Northern alienation that Boko
Haram feeds on is a sense of political marginalisation?
Yes, Boko Haram feeds on a sense of political marginalisation along
with economic marginalisation. Poverty in north-east Nigeria is, in the
best of times, among the world’s worst, as are the social statistics.
But, alienation and marginalisation have far more complicated roots
than just poverty. My sense is that many in northern Nigeria feel “dis-
respected” by their fellow countrymen, and certainly Abuja has long
ignored it.
How and by who are they marginalised?
With the end of “zoning,” many political figures sense that they will be
excluded permanently from power in Abuja. But, the North-East is
also ‘marginalised’ by many businessmen in the South, who avidly
pursue opportunities in other parts of Africa but ignore the North.
Opinion leaders, too, often dismiss the North as ‘backward.’ Factors
such as this all contribute to marginalisation.
More than 100 days away from their schools, from their parents, their
neighbours and the normal society, the whereabouts of the abducted
Chibok schoolgirls remains a mystery. Can their rescue ever be pulled
off? By what means do you think this can happen?
I think it is extremely difficult to rescue the abducted schoolgirls. It is
possible that the girls are held captive in more than one place. And if
that’s the case, rescuing the girls won’t be easy. The Nigerian
government has always been open to negotiate with Boko Haram. It
has always opted for dialogue. But Boko Haram has always refused to
negotiate. What the terrorist group initially asked for was that the
wives and children of its members who are in extra-judicial detention
should be released. Subsequently, the Islamist group demanded the
release of its operatives in exchange for the girls. That’s dangerous.
Third-party negotiation is not that simple. If Boko Haram is highly
diffuse, it may be that Shekau is just one of many leaders in the
group. It’s difficult to know exactly who you’re dealing with.
Do you think the Federal Government’s employing an American PR
firm is a solution to the current Boko Haram insurgency?
Foreign governments often employ public relations firms to burnish
their image in the United States; most of the time, I think it’s a waste
of money. I also think harassing the legal demonstrations by
BringBackOurGirls is not right. What the campaigners are doing is
entirely legal.
What do you think about the loan request of the president to fight
Boko Haram?
I am not the National Assembly; but, I think there are a lot of
questions. Why is the loan necessary, given Nigeria’s anticipated
revenue? What steps are being put in place to prevent corruption?
You show keen interest in the Nigerian nation; what’s the attraction?
Why am I interested in Nigeria? I think Nigeria is an extraordinarily
attractive country. Its artistic achievements are under-reported; what
is being achieved in terms of arts does not get enough publicity. The
paintings in my small collection from Nigeria are widely admired.
Also, Nigeria’s contribution to music is tremendous – high-life, for
example. Some think it originated in Ghana but actually it is
Nigerian. Nigeria is very big — it is almost a world unto itself.
How do you think the Nigerian government can ensure a credible, free
and fair election come 2015?
It is going to be a major challenge. I have heard concerns expressed
by Nigerian civil organisations about the state of election
preparations. Then there is the question of how to conduct free and
fair elections in the three states under a State of Emergency. The
election in Ekiti State does not fill me with confidence. Elections are,
of course, much more than polling day. It will be essential that the
ballot counting and the collating of the results be transparent if the
elections are to be credible — to Nigerians. That is what really
matters: that the elections should be credible to Nigerians throughout
the country.
Do you think the US-Africa Summit scheduled for August 4-6 will be
an opportunity for Mr. Goodluck Jonathan to seek more assistance
from the US president?
I am not qualified to say what President Jonathan will ask for.
With increasing turbulence in Nigeria, what impact can it have on the
African continent and on nations like America?
Nigeria has been Africa’s ‘indispensable’ country. It was a founder
and animator of Economic Community of West African States and the
African Union. It addressed a range of security crises ranging from
Liberia to Sierra Leone to Cote d’Ivoire. Not now. I think a strong,
outward-looking Nigeria would have led to a very different, and more
positive, outcome to the Mali crisis than what happened – and made
non-African intervention unnecessary.
Nigeria was the most important strategic partner of the United States
in Africa. Now that Nigeria is almost entirely focused on Boko Haram
and the upcoming elections, that partnership is on the shelf.
Interestingly, with all its economic incursion into Africa, China appears
to be silent about Nigeria’s challenge. Will you say this is deliberate?
I cannot say what motivates China’s policy toward Nigeria.
Cameroon also is facing attacks from Boko Haram insurgents. Do we
say the terrorist group is a West African issue or why is its violence
extending to neighbouring nations?
Violent insurrections can be found straight across the Sahel in
differing forms. What they seem to have in common is a local focus
and a response to bad governance. I do not see evidence of
coordination for a common purpose among the various insurgent
groups, though they may share tactics and even occasionally
personnel.
From your observatory, what insights can you offer on Africa’s
political and security development?
In general, the way forward for Africa is improved governance and the
strengthening of democratic institutions and the rule of law. Where
that is achieved, economic development will surely follow. Positive
examples are Botswana and South Africa.
A lot of Nigerians are already wondering if their country won’t end up
like Libya, Iraq or Afghanistan. How close or far is Nigeria from any of
these countries’ situation?
I am leery about such comparisons. Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, and
Nigeria are very different countries with different histories. Nigeria’s
future will be determined by choices Nigerians make. The same is true
of Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
If you have an audience with Mr. President, what will you tell him to
do?
I would ask him quickly and responsibly to address security service,
human rights violations in the country.
SOURCE : www.punchng.com/news/i-insist-nigeria-is-dancing-on-the-brink-john-campbell/