The attempt, last Wednesday, by Professor Attahiru
Jega, National Chairman, Independent National
Electoral Commission, INEC, to explain away the
inherent incongruity in allocating Polling Units,
PUs, to states of the federation with less probability
of having more voting population, an exercise that
should have been carried out relying on field data,
only served to further pour cold water on the
Chairman of Nigeria’s election management body.
This report will show that based on figures
exclusively gotten from the Commission, the less-
than-academic explanation of why INEC did what it
did falls flat in the face of common sense and
reality.
Rather than persist on this voyage of
embarrassment as the Commission first did
regarding the issue of delimitation, a fool’s errand
of attempting to carry out the exercise so close to
next year’s elections but had to suspend, Jega’s
insistence on going ahead with the lopsided
allocation of PUs to favour the North is nothing
more than a recipe for disaster and another
attempt at consolidating on the error of Nigeria’s
colonial masters and the military that enthroned
the warped demographic logic of claiming that
more people live in the desert.
PULLING WOOL
Professor Attahiru Jega’s production line of
excuses and rationalization for an agenda that
went awry may soon suffer a fatal breakdown. His
present challenge is how to explain to Nigerians
the logic and workability of putting a cart before a
tired horse.
Ordinarily, on the matter of Polling Units, PUs,
INEC’s decision to create new ones appeared very
necessary and potentially beneficial to the electoral
process.
However, on closer scrutiny, the devil is in the
details.
When Sunday Vanguard commenced the crusade
on the dangers to the credibility of the electoral
process occasioned by the seemingly manipulative
mentality inherent in creating PUs before meeting
some conditions precedent, INEC chose to, at best,
ignore the damning observations and, at worst,
pooh-pooh the publications.
But because the real dangers and illogicality of
INEC’s decision on the matter were not
immediately manifest, Nigerians were not quick to
observe the not-so-innocent as well as less than
altruistic reasons behind PU saga.
PUNCTURING INEC’s LOGIC
The questions to, therefore, ask are: How did INEC
arrive at its proportions while it was still collecting
data in the field regarding actual figures of voters
in each jurisdiction? Was it done without reference
to actual reality from field data?
The emerging result from the Continuous Voter
Registration, CVR, is bringing day light into INEC’s
magic.
The first phase of the CVR started on May 28, 2014
and ended on June 3, 2014.
The second phase commenced on June 20 – 25,
2014. INEC’s explanation is that those who had
issues with their registration and were expected to
return for another round of registration during the
CVR accounted for its basis for allocating PUs the
way it did. But looking at the table of the result of
Phases 1 and 2 of the CVR, the number of those
who actually re-presented themselves for the CVR
exercise is no where up to 20% in almost all the
states and, therefore, knocks the bottom off Jega’s
explanation. (See table titled PHASE 1 and check
the sub-head, CVR Figures; and check table titled
PHASE 2 and check sub-head, TOTAL).
An outcome that should inform voter logistics, one
of which is the number of polling units required for
each jurisdiction, is being conducted in a
maliciously whimsical manner.
As the emergent figures from INEC’s authentication
of eligible voters and the continuous registration of
voters in different jurisdictions show below, INEC
created 1,200 additional polling units in Abuja, and
1,167 new polling units for the whole of the South-
east zone, whereas extant data, and now emergent
data from INEC’s own field reports, demonstrate
again that not only does just four states in the
South-east far exceeds the voting strength in
Abuja, the number of newly registered voters in
the zone is 919,097, while the FCT has just 37,235
times or about 25 times more.
From the emerging data above, even though the
full national figures have not emerged, the
following clear deductions can be made to restate
that INEC’s decision-makers who created the new
Pus, which gave 21,000 PUs to the North and a
little over 8,000 PUs to the South, were only
playing what looks like a regional card instead of
doing a professional electoral management job.
Even if the final data results in a double voter
strength between the North-west and the South-
east, for instance, which is unlikely given the
estimated voting population of the states yet to be
accounted for in both zones from the data above, it
cannot justify the 8 to 1 disparity in the allocation
of new PUs to both zones.
WHY THE HASTE?
Emerging data shows that the difference in the
number of newly registered voters from the CVR for
the four states of the South-east above and the
four states in the North-west is not significantly
different, even when the data from large voter areas
from the South, such as Lagos, Port Harcourt,
Ibadan and so forth, have not been taken into
account; yet the allocation of new Pus, which
should largely be informed by voter increases, has
been skewed to appear as if a wide margin of
difference in CVR exists between the North and the
South.
Emergent field data from INEC shows that four
states (not the full five states) in the South-east
have 25 times more newly registered voters than
FCT, Abuja; yet, Abuja was allocated more new
PUs than the entire South-east zone.
Take, for instance, a state like Zamfara that has
almost the same number of new eligible voters and
almost the same extant voters as Enugu, but which
got about 1,000 new polling units, almost the same
as the entire South-east got.
INEC could not possibly know ahead of actual field
figures the number of people who will register as
eligible voters in any jurisdiction from the pool of
eligible citizens. A comparison of intra-zonal CVR
figures, for instance, shows that Zamfara, with an
extant voter figure of 1,133,245, had more new
registrants namely, 433,452, than a state with
more extant eligible voters like Jigawa with
1,510,258, which had only 72,416.
Similarly, an inter-zonal comparison of Enugu and
Kebbi will show a similar phenomenon. This kills
off any arguments for a resort to population/
demographic assumptions without actual field
figures, as was put forward by Jega during his
press conference.
In other words, as many have cautioned, INEC
ought to have waited for actual field data before
creating new PUs, rather than creating PUs to fit an
assumed framework, as others have said before.
In doing so, INEC was climbing the tree from the
top or working with pre-determined answers,
which is proof that those who did the allocations in
INEC had preconceived reasons for their
allocations.
This is a very sad development for electoral
management because it distorts the numbers
required for better local planning and offsets the
election for local contests such as states and
national legislature as well as state gubernatorial
elections.
PERTINENT ISSUES
On the day of election in a presidential system, the
outcome depends on the number of voters who
show up and are authenticated. The only
significant effect on interstate elections is with the
presidential election, and this only becomes
significant where there is a major contest between
two candidates and a simple majority is needed by
one candidate to break other parameters if they are
tied. This is why the suspicion of a regional
agenda is clearly at play, as this can only be the
motivation for this peculiar mess.
Jega’s press conference did not effectively address
the following issues:
Which of the Register of data was used for the PUs
creation: post Automated Finger Identification
System, AFIS, or post Business Rule, BR? We
know it is post-AFIS!
Why use post-AFIS register when post-BR is being
used to produce Permanent Voter Card, PVC, and
for the Register used for Ekiti, Osun and the same
would be used for the 2015 elections?
What is the total number of those in the post-AFIS
and who actually re-presented themselves in the
1st phase of CVR carried out in 10 states and the
2nd phase with 12 states and how many do INEC
project would turn up in the 3rd and final phase
involving 12 states ? There would be no figure to
give because processing of recently registered
voters is still ongoing.
The final question, therefore, would be, would it not
have been better and tidier for all the activities that
are still ongoing to be completed and actual
figures known before creating PUs?
The consolation, however, is that Jega is both
intelligent and wise.
As was the case when Sunday Vanguard raised
the alarm about the administrative hocus-pocus
being engendered at the Commission under Jega
and which appears to have been addressed (even
if not fully but partly), there is the expectation that
Jega would do the wise thing so that all his efforts
at bequeathing a clean voter register would not be
slaughtered on the altar of North/South dichotomy.
It remains his call.


http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/09/polling-units-scandal-jegas-theory-dangers-ahead/

I think the whole of Southern Nigeria through National Assembly should rise to this Arbitrariness ...... 21,000 against 8,000 even FCT ( a state) has more units than SE(a region) ....

Are voters more in FCT than SE ? ....

Pls, someone should tell me the yardstick used in allocating the units because I can't understand Jega's explanations !

jegga is a northerner,if he is from the east the usual people home and abroad will call for his head

Hmm! Theories and counter theories. In days to come, we'll see that Jega who was the black sheep son of the north will become a hero in Advance and to the southerners to whom he was a credible umpire and a selfless hero, he will become a dangerous demon on a journey to relegate them into slavery and servitude once again. And to me, I Just Dey Observe.

What will breakup Nigeria will be North's impatience for others to taste power

Imagine granting North 22000 and South 8000 new polling units.

If each PU is allocated 500 ballot papers , North will have 11,000,000 ballot papers and South 4,000,000 ballot papers increasing North's voting power by 7,000,000. When this is added to North's existing higher figure, North's voting power will be above 9,000,000.

This means the North voting power has increased by more than 9million ballot papers despite massive migration of Northern Christians and Southerners from the North due to Boko Haram and fulani well planned genocidal attacks to depopulate Minority Northerners and Southerners who are mostly pro-GEJ.

Jega is a potential Boko Haram who has successfully hidden his identity until now.

Jega should be placed under security surveillance.

This lopsided abracadabra will not see the light of the day provided President Goodluck Jonathan is in charge of this administration.

Returning President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 is a task that must be done.

The Ignorants in Nairaland accuse me of supporting PDP against APC when I have never critique APC rather I lambast and blame PDP for Nigeria present predicaments notwithstanding my pro-GEJ stance.

President Jonathan will oversee the re-allocation and fresh bids for all expiring Oil blocks.

Census 2016 must be fair and credible. The notion that Kano State is more populated than Lagos State is false and reality must prevail.

Prof Atahiru Jega must be forced to resign.