PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS A MERE ACT OF IMAGINATION AND CANNOT BE ATTRIBUTED TO REALITY(even if it can happen na 200 years to come) To illustrate a future war with a niche
competitor, imagine the following
hypothetical scenario. Nigeria attacks
Zaire with 10 armored divisions
(including 5,000 armored vehicles).
Nigeria's operational goal is to capture Kinshasa, thereby cutting Zaire's
access to the Atlantic. Drawing on its oil wealth, Nigeria has
built a substantial military. In addition
to the ground attacking force,
Nigeria's military consists of:* 200 fighter aircraft (half are front line:
MiG-29, Rafael, Su-35), equipped with
advanced medium-range air-to-air
missiles (AMRAAM) and precision
ground-attack munitions, Five nuclear weapons (100 kilotons),
and 100 intermediate-range ballistic
missiles (IRBM) with a range of 1,000
NM and CEP of more than 500 meters. *Such a force is notional; it bears no
relation to current Nigerian
inventories. In total numbers it's
similar to the force structure used by
RAND in The New Calculus, 16. Also, Nigeria has integrated three
emerging weapons into its military.
First, it uses COMSATs (commercial
satellites) for photo reconnaissance
and communications. These satellites
are majority-owned by the European Community, the Arab League, and an
Asian business consortium. Nigeria is a
minority owner of each system. All
refused US requests to shut down
Nigerian access. These satellites allow
encrypted communications throughout Africa. They also provide
imagery directly to mobile ground
stations in Nigeria and with the
attacking columns. This imagery has
one-meter resolution. In addition, the
Nigerians have two backup ground stations in sympathetic third countries.
These facilities are connected to
Nigeria by fiber-optic cable. Second, Nigeria has stealthy cruise
missiles (purchased from Israel, Brazil,
and France with these capabilities: Inventory: 5,000, with 100 mobile
launchers. Guidance: Integrated GPS/INS en
route; terminal guidance uses
millimeter wave seeker, infrared, or
antiradiation. CEP is <5 meters. Range: 1,000 NM. Warhead: 1,000-pound conventional
warhead, cluster bomb unit (CBU),
zirconium disk, napalm, infrared
cameras with data burst transmitters,
multichannel jammers, decoys, HPM,
MHD, or EMP. RCS <.001 (frontal aspect only). Third, Nigeria bought five ASATs from
Russia. The ASATs launch from Su-35s.
They are kinetic kill with IR sensors.
These ASATs can only reach satellites
in low earth orbit. Zairian forces are moving to reinforce
Kinshasa but are considered far
inferior to the Nigerian military.
Countries between Nigeria and Zaire
(Cameroon, Gabon, and Congo) either
ally with Nigeria or give Nigerian forces free passage. The US decides to
unilaterally enter the conflict on Zaire's
side.* The president orders the US
military to assist Zaire's army in halting
the Nigerian advance north of the
Congo River. Figure 10. Map of Africa *This is only an illustrative scenario.
The specific reason for intervening is
not important for scenario purposes.
What is important is to outline a
contingency where the niche enemy is
superior to its regional opponent. Also, the fight is thousands of miles
from US territory and there's little in-
place US military infrastructure. The theater CINC levies the following
specific aerospace taskings: Establish air supremacy over US forces. Establish air superiority over Zaire and
the Nigerian LOCs. Airlift US units to the theater. Attack Nigerian military forces south of
the Nigerian border. Provide near-real-time information on
Nigerian military movements to Zaire. Assuming this war starts in summer,
weather is not much of a factor.
Throughout the year, ceilings are
above 3,000 feet more than half the
time. The rainy season around
Kinshasa is early winter, especially November and December.
Precipitation in July and August is
practically zero. Temperatures are
always above freezing. Table 6 Kinshasa Weather (Ceilings in Percent) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ceilings
<3,000´ 22 19 19 19 25 49 40 45 33 30 16 16 Ceilings
<1,000´ 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - Inches
Precipitation 5.0 5.6 6.7 8.4 5.4 .2 .1 .1 1.3 5.5 9.3 6.7 Source: USAFETAC/DOO (Now AFCCC) The US begins deploying two armored
divisions and 10 fighter squadrons, with their associated C4I, into Zaire and southwestern Congo. One ARG
and two carrier battle groups position
themselves off the coast of Gabon.
Defensive systems against cruise and
ballistic missiles deploy with these
forces. Batteries position around the land bases. Improved AEGIS-type
ships escort the battle groups. Both
rely on airborne aircraft equipped with
long-wavelength radars for missile
detection and cueing. Surface radars
guide the actual intercepts. One week after deployment begins,
Nigeria launches 200 stealthy cruise
missiles with CBU (plus four with
electronic decoy packages and four
with jammers) against the Brazzaville
and Kinshasa airports. They overwhelm the limited number of fully
operational air defense batteries.* In
addition, some of the intercepts are
hampered by software shortfalls; the
Nigerian cruise missiles present
slightly different signatures from those expected. The simultaneous arrival of
three tactical ballistic missiles further
confuses the defenses. As a result, half
the cruise missiles penetrate. Multiple
AWACS, J-STARS, KC-10s, and B-747s
are destroyed on the ramp. A large tent city is heavily damaged. US
casualties are high. Television crews
transmit pictures of Zairian soldiers
looting the bodies of dead Americans.
Stealthy cruise missiles also cripple
three USN ships off the West African coast and one RO/RO supply ship at
Kinshasa harbor. *For example, a single Patriot battalion
is normally equipped with six
batteries, each of which can fire up to
eight missiles before reloading (total:
48 missiles). In the wake of this disaster, public
support for intervention polarizes in
the US. The president reaffirms the US
commitment, but replaces the theater
CINC and requests a new strategy.
Planning is constrained by basing restrictions. All countries within 1,000
NM of the AOR refuse US overflight and
basing requests. The US must rely on
Ascension Island (United Kingdom),
Azores (Portugal), Canary Islands
(Spain), South Africa, Kenya, and Zaire for land bases. Bases in the CONUS,
Europe, South America, and at Diego
Garcia are also available. US Aerospace CONOPS In this scenario, a hypothetical enemy
(Nigeria) launches a land invasion of a
nation 700 NM to its south (Zaire). This
operation is a land force-intensive
attack, with 10 divisions of armor and
infantry.* Its size and capability far outmatch the defending (Zairian)
army. To protect US interests in the
region, the president orders the US
military to assist Zaire. The military task
is to stop the Nigerian advance short
of the Congo River. *Current demographic projections
estimate Nigeria's 2010 population at
240 million. Anticipating American intervention,
Nigeria bought high-technology
weapons. It has stealthy cruise
missiles with 1,000 NM range, access
to civilian satellite information and
communications, and a robust air defense system (radars, fusion
centers, surface-to-air missiles, and
manned interceptors). PLEASE NAIRALANDERS CAN THIS EVER HAPPEN? lolz

i swear i love your imagination

Please promise me you will never contest in a nigerian presidential election

i have so many things to say i swear i dont even know where to start...e be like say you get beaf with Zaire people o...besides, that mix of aircraft would be very difficult to obtain because of international politics and i personally wouldnt want nigeria to buy the mig29 - what happened to the sukhoi 34 and 35s?...nice dream though

WW X ?

that's a lovely analysis there, one would think you had intelligence or military training....

if possible, write up a novel.

.

Metrofox:
that's a lovely analysis there, one would think you had intelligence or military training....

He probably did.