For those who are upbeat about the
chances of the incumbent President
Goodluck Jonathan winning re-
election if he decides to run, I have
bad news for them. The President
may not only lose in 2015, he could
lose by a landslide even with the
incumbency factor perceived to be
in his favour. Let’s even consider a
massive defeat of an incumbent
impossibility; he could still be
edged out by a narrow margin.
Indeed all evidence point to the first
shocking defeat of an incumbent in
a presidential election in the
country. For the first time ever, it
seems the incumbency effect may
not matter. While I acknowledge the
usual arguments about the
incumbent advantage; 2015 may
yet prove to be an exception.
Why do I think so? If the supporters
of the President can just sit back
and remove the scale of sycophancy
from their eyes and honestly assess
the situation in the country, they
will see that in a free and fair
election, the President does not
stand a chance. I think they may be
in for a rude shock.
Those who fancy an easy win for
Jonathan may have failed to
appreciate the enormity of the
challenges stacked against his re-
election...
But supporters of the administration
seem to have been living in denial
all this while. For them the
President’s victory is a foregone
conclusion. Not quite. Their
optimism seems buoyed by the gale
of endorsements by some phony
groups and intimidated Peoples
Democratic Party governors who
seem not to have any choice
anyway. Supporters of the
administration have also trumpeted
what they considered to be some
achievements of the President. But
it appears the so-called
achievements are known only to
them alone. As for Nigerians, it has
been a case of the more you look,
the less you see when it comes to
assessing this administration. In
the ultimate decider will be Nigerian
voters.
Despite the huge arsenal of funds
and state machinery at the disposal
of the Jonathan presidency, politics
and life often have other plans. This
is what recent elections have taught
us. The reality is, incumbents can
be defeated. It may happen in 2015
– in a few months from now,
President Jonathan will find out
whether he will be keeping his job.
For most voters, their choice will
ultimately come down to how they
expect either a new president or
Jonathan to run the affairs of our
country in the next four years.
Unfortunately for Jonathan, he does
not seem to have much of a
presidential record, and a review of
it leaves little doubt that Nigerians
may want to fire him.
Let me make it clear for people
reading this, especially supporters
of this administration, the laziest
thing will be to dismiss my
thoughts as the ranting of a hater of
the President or an opposition
hatchet job. Far from it, I am
completely apolitical. One does not
need a crystal ball to see the
realities of why President Jonathan
should be preparing his handover
note. Or shouldn’t he? Here are my
reasons. The first is in the changing
demographics. Increasingly as we
progress in our democratic
experience, it is becoming clear that
it is the voters that will ultimately
determine the fate of candidates.
In the past, defeating incumbents
was unthinkable. Incumbents held
what proverbialy could be called the
yam and the knife – but not
anymore. We have the situation
where sitting Presidents deploy
state machinery to induce and
coerce all electoral institutions. In
recent governorship elections
incumbents have been beaten while
some held on to their post by a thin
margin. It is no longer easy to steal
the people’s mandate. Now if
elections are not won by ballot, one
can be sure the courts will overturn
any stolen mandate. The trend will
surely continue in 2015. If the
situation persists, President
Jonathan may be Nigeria’s first
one-term President. Not even the
rallies being held across the country
in support of the President may help
the re-election.
In 2015, the President will be
assessed by his performance in the
last five years. A look at history has
shown that if President Jonathan
loses, he will not be the first
incumbent to do so. There have
been nearly a dozen one term
Presidents who ran for second
terms but were denied by voters, in
the United States, for example, there
have been three one-term
presidents since World War II. The
most recent one-term president
who lost his re-election bid was
George H.W. Bush, a Republican
who lost to Democrat Bill Clinton in
1992. Republican George H.W. Bush
was the 41st President of the United
States, serving from 1989 to 1993.
He lost a campaign for re-election
in 1992 to Democrat, Bill Clinton.
Bush’s official White House
biography describes his re-election
loss this way: “Despite
unprecedented popularity from this
military and diplomatic triumph,
Bush was unable to withstand
discontent at home from a faltering
economy and continued high deficit
spending.’’ Though some of the
one-term US presidents lost due to
the prevailing economic, political
and social factors of their time;
those factors will pale into
insignificance when juxtaposed
with the failures of the Jonathan
presidency. If any of the US
presidents had been Jonathan, they
would not have even made the mid-
term election as they would have
been impeached. Unfortunately, we
have legislative arms that are
largely part of the rot.
But in spite of ongoing propaganda,
Nigerians seem to have become
wiser—more discerning. They may
express their displeasure with this
administration in 2015. I have
written in this column that the next
election may yet be a protest vote
by a people tired of this
administration’s arrogance,
contempt and disdain for their
welfare as a people. What will be
the greatest obstacle in the path of
Jonathan’s re-election is his
attitude to corruption. Needless to
say that Nigerians have become
embarrassed by how corruption
scandals at home and abroad have
taken a toll on their country’s
reputation.
What is worse is Jonathan’s denial
of corruption as the cause of our
underdevelopment. In several public
statements, the President had
declared, much to the bewilderment
of Nigerians, that corruption is not
Nigeria’s problem. The President
must know that Nigerians are
seriously angry about his ‘body
language’ to corruption when
allegations of corruption continue
to taint his government. This
President has too much baggage
going into an election year. They
will certainly hurt his re-election
chances.
For example, Nigerians are
scandalised by the President’s
refusal to probe the ongoing cash-
for-arm scandals rocking his
administration. That he has
continued to maintain silence even
as these allegations continue to
taint the integrity of his
administration is unnerving to
Nigerians. Meanwhile, under this
administration, all the agencies
meant to fight corruption have also
gone comatose. Perhaps it is not a
coincidence that this is happening
under his Presidency. The lack of
leadership and the damage inflicted
on Nigerians living in the North-
East by the administration’s delay
to confront growing insecurity has
had its attendant consequences.
The President is going into the
election as a largely unpopular
candidate. Can Nigerians afford four
more years of Jonathan?
Something tells me that we may
have seen the last of the
Jonathan’s presidency. I will be
surprised if he is re-elected.
BY BAYO OLUPOHUNDA
for: The Punch
Follow me on twitter:
@bayoolupohunda

k. I don hear. *stammerring* bu buu buut let waaii waiiittt an an and see

GEJ's victory at the polls come 2015 is already a done deal. Egbon I beg you to wake up and accept reality.


GEJ till 2019

GEJ till 2019 unless I see a credible person, but not all the people AAPC IS parading.

.

lonelydora:
GEJ till 2019 unless I see a credible person, but not all the people AAPC IS parading.

...and what's your definition of a credible candidate?

If only Gej will respect himself and step aside.

GEJ's victory at the poles is even surer than Nigeria's victory over sudan tomorrow.

As surer as cele is deceiving many of you

JEITO:
GEJ's victory at the poles is even surer than Nigeria's victory over sudan tomorrow.

GEJ may lose next year election....... It will come by surprise to all Pro-GEJ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qun4YeQX0AM

[size=15pt]Goodluck Jonathan Will Lose 2015 Election[/size]

You're entitled to your own opinion