Let’s break down this Presidential Election into simple Mathematics.

Jonathan had a good spread scoring 25% or more in 31 States. Buhari managed to score 25% or more in 16 States and yet got a cumulative result of over 12 million votes. A good Mathematician should be able to help us here because I wish to show our President’s handlers that they will pay heavily for complacency if they assume and take it for granted that they can beat Buhari easily like PDP had always done in the past. Let me explain it further. A man who won d mandatory 25% in about half of d States secured by the President still went ahead to poll over half of what d President got. Now ds is the tricky part.

Let me begin with the most obvious. Buhari
had only 37.96% in Adamawa while Jonathan
had 56%. The registered voters were 1,816,094
but d voter-turnout was a miserable 49.98%.
With d way d country is right now, PDP would
require a miracle to win Adamawa with a
landslide. If Buhari secures d APC ticket, it is
almost certain d he would clean up that State.
And in case d voters turn out much bigger, it
means that State can wipe off some of d deficits
Buhari suffered in 2011.

The two leading parties can still jerk up about
one million extras which won’t be a bad idea
even if PDP still gets 25% or more. Let’s walk
across to another interesting State, Bauchi
where Buhari recorded 1,315,209 against
Jonathan’s 258,404 despite d avuncular
presence of PDP Governor, Isa Yuguda. d
registered voters here were 2,523,614 but only
1,610,094 voters chose to vote with nearly
1,000,000 voters hibernating somewhere. I
hope you’re patient enough 2 follow ds Maths
lesson. Benue would certainly be a major battle
ground ds time 4 d candidates because the
State has over 1.3 million voters (out of a total
registration of 2,390,884) buried somewhere 4
d strongest candidate to resurrect. Here
ethnicity and religion would play critical roles
more than ever before.

It is presently a virtual PDP State with Jonathan
polling 694,776 against Buhari’s 109,680 & ACN
(Nuhu Ribadu) 223,007. Benue had always been
a State of enlightened voters and it may swing
in favour of a serious candidate. Let’s keep
moving & find somewhere to land in d troubled
spot of Borno State. This is a treasure ground
with 2,380,957 out of which more than half of d
voters have absconded & vanished into thin air.
In 2011, Buhari 909,763 against d President’s
humble 207,075 votes. Now this State is under
fire but is NOW largely controlled by d new
alliance known as APC.

Let’s saunter across to Gombe where Buhari
scored 459,898 against Jonathan’s 290,347
votes out of a total registration of 1,318,377. All
d parties combined recorded 770,019 voters. d
implication of this is that if this State decides to
be generous, it may dash out about 548,358
votes. We are still moving and scavenging 4 d
votes wherever they are hiding. Let’s say some
quick Hello to our Brother, Governor of Jigawa
State, Sule Lamido, who couldn’t hold Buhari
down despite his equally tall physique. Here
Buhari polled 663,994 against Jonathan’s
419,252. Total votes cast came to 1,140,766 out
of 2,013,974 total registrations. Do not say I
told you, this State has some 873,208
unseen registered voters probably
perambulating as we write. This journey is still
long & arduous.

Kaduna is a major war zone for d candidates
because of its peculiar characteristics. Buhari’s
supremacy was hotly challenged as Jonathan
polled 1,190,179 against Buhari’s 1,334,244
votes . Total votes cast were 2,569,963 out of
3,905,387 total registered voters. Now wait for
the good news of the kingdom; this beautiful
State has 1,335,424 voters that it can conjure
whenever needed or ready. If you think Kaduna
was super, please, wait for the almighty Kano
where no serious candidate can play silly pranks
with the energetic & fearless Governor, Rabiu
Kwankwaso.

In 2011, Buhari massacred Jonathan with 1,624,543 against 440,666. d then Governor and Presidential candidate, Ibrahim Shekarau even scored more than d President with his 526,310 votes. d total In all, 1,639,532 voters performed their civic duty out of 3,126,898 registered voters.

Please, permit me to fast forward to the State
of the Sokoto Caliphate where a floodgate can
still be opened. Strangely, Buhari pulled merely
540,769 shots against Jonathan’s 309,057. A
total of 909,808 voters came out of 2,267,509
registered voters. No one is able to explain this
anomalous situation to us properly but some
1,357,701 unseen voters may decide to show
up in 2015. Please, bear with me, you must be
getting tired but we need to do this together
because of my over-confident friends in Abuja
who must have had F9 in Mathematics like me.
Let me now give you the shock treatment and
take you straight to the biggest theatres of war.
I must warn that this not for the faint-
hearted. Welcome to the heartbeat of Nigeria
known as Lagos State where Jonathan polled
1,281,688 against Buhari’s 189,983 and Nuhu
Ribadu’s 427,203. Wait for this, only 1,945,044
voters turned up out of 6,108,069 voters.
In effect, Lagos can, in its true majesty, produce
additional 4,163,025 out of its bag of magic. I
wish there was space to display all the figures
but it won’t be possible. But let me continue
with the random sampling. Many of d States
won by Jonathan or PDP or both, depending on
why you voted in 2011, are not so easily
available at this time. Take Oyo for example
under the control of APC beyond the next
Presidential election may prove too tough to
handle. Only 863,544 out of 2,572,140 voters
appeared in public but we don’t know the
whereabouts of 1,708,596 potential voters.
Ogun State is another interesting territory
where 543,715 people voted out of 1,941,170
who registered to vote. Meanwhile, the largest
turnout of voters was recorded in areas
controlled by Jonathan but let’s examine the
figures. Abia has used up 1,188,333 out of
1,524,484; Akwa Ibom 1,232,395 out of
1,616,873; Anambra 1,157,239 out of
2,011,746; BAYELSA 506,693 out of 591,870;
Cross River 726,341 out of 1,148,486; Delta
1,398,579 out of 2,032,191; Edo 621 out of
1,655,776; Ebonyi 502,890 out of 1,050,534;
Ekiti 261,858 out of 764,726; Enugu 814,009 out
of 1,303155; Imo 1,409,850 out of 1,687,293;
Kwara 414,754 out of 1,152,361; Ondo 486,837
out of 1,616,091; Osun (lost by Jonathan)
512,714 out of 1,293,967; Rivers (the largest
State in South South) 1,854,116 out
of2,429,231 and so and so on.

This should give you a fair representation of
what is at stake in the 2015 election. Politics is
not exactly Maths but it is still a game of
numbers.

Those who think an incumbent President cannot
be defeated should wake up from their self-
induced coma. The mood of the Nigerian nation
is very similar to that which swept Obama into
power. Lagos and Kano combined account for
11,135,366 registered voters out of a grand
total of 73,528,040. Only 38,199,219 people
voted in all the States. There are 35,328,821
floating somewhere. Most of them are
comfortably resident in APC States.

My free advice to the Jonathan campaigner is
simple; stop projecting our President as a
sectional leader whose only qualification is
where he comes from. Stop raining insults on
Northerners and avoid maligning innocent
Muslims. The religious card you wish and hope
to play will never play out in favour of
President Jonathan. You should concentrate on
projecting the positive work and his
Transformation Agenda.

A President is the father of the nation. A lot of
damage has been done by portraying him as a
victim who’s derided by everyone except his
own.

The President’s handlers should worry more
about how the goodwill of 2011 got frittered
away in such a jiffy. Above all, they should
urgently search for competent Maths teachers.
Believe me, the figures are no longer adding up.

Let me tell u something, GEJ will win either by rigging, wuru wuru or anything else. Why is GEJ having 70% in the Southern PDP states including Ondo and Ekiti? Because they can rig their stronghold. Election will be allowed to be free and fair in APC's dominated state and INFLATED in PDP dominated states. This is the method GMB is even afraid of. Don't forget Atiku is in the race.

gregg2:
Congratulations!!!
You guys are good at winning on paper

Hahaha...so on point!
2015 is not to far...we'll watch n see!

.

Plagiarism !!!

gregg2:
Congratulations!!!
You guys are good at winning on paper

and on electronic social media too.

As reported by INEC chairman of nairaland, today's presidential election on Nairaland was won by a landslide by no other than General Buhari. Also note that General Buhari won also by a landslide yesterday on nairaland and projec0tions are that he will continue to win on nairaland until Feb 14 when he will be brought back to the reality of serial defeat

Reporting for Nairaland, I am rati ken

Jega will not allow Rigging this time

Good analysis, wonder why people detest fact, either they likes it or not GMB will win 2015 election

Yeah!

PLS Nigerians I am from the SE, It is time we try buhari at list compensate him for all his loses, so that we can have peace of mind, let see his own way of ruling let try another hand I pray there is going to be a Change

CharliParker:
PLS Nigerians I am from the SE, It is time we try buhari at list compensate him for all his loses, so that we can have peace of mind, let see his own way of ruling let try another hand I pray there is going to be a Change

We need change, GEJ needs to step down because he is not capable

I think there is something you guys are missing. Jonathan will win whether you vote or not. Some of you guys are funny. You sincerely think the INEC chairman will announce a result that his boss has been fired. Come 2015 GEJ will win

khadaffi:
I think there is something you guys are missing. Jonathan will win whether you vote or not. Some of you guys are funny. You sincerely think the INEC chairman will announce a result that his boss has been fired. Come 2015 GEJ will win

What else does pdp understand other than rigging. But i can assure you, with the dismal display of the party, they would have to consider other options if they hope to keep their dream alive, cos this time, they will meet real and formidable resistence. And any attempt to subvert the people's will may be choatic.

I don't understand why everyone is already calling Buhari the flagbearer. What about the primaries? What about Atiku? Do they want to go by concensus candidate "just like PDP"? Anyway we shall see by february.

Im in support of Buhari. All i can do is pray for him to win o. Even Buharu knows what the power of incumbency can do.

Sai Buhari.

I don't think Nigerians are ready for change yet.... We need a Potent man as president, a man ready to take actions... Why are we so like this in Nigeria, why can't we just fight for the best for our country. We need development and all we are getting is some hungry peeps trying to manipulate things.... The goverment is not the problem of this nation, it is the people in it.

olodo mathematician.

I can't wait to see GEJ defeated, that man dissaointed me. I thought he was capable when I voted for him in 2011 but now, me and my(we be igbo) na buhari. So GEJ has lost my vote, caalculate that 1 join

Obipat:
I can't wait to see GEJ defeated, that man dissaointed me. I thought he was capable when I voted for him in 2011 but now, me and my(we be igbo) na buhari. So GEJ has lost my vote, caalculate that 1 join

If Buhari doesn't win the 2015 election, WALLAHI-TALLAHI, even as a christian, I will organise, arrange, sponsor & replicate the terror of ISIS in my domain.

If not for anything, I must secure the future of my generations unborn. Y should any of my children/grand children be subjected to the same economic & social dehumanization that I experienced just because of some useless entities dividing us along religious line?

Can you imagine some bigots trying hard to convince us, in this age of technology, that Buhari has an agenda of islamizing Nigeria, when even our maximum dictator "Sanni Abacha" couldn't try it in the military era?

Is the subsidy scam not enough reason to boot out GEJ? And to think about the protection these subsidy thieves enjoy is sickening. What about the Immigration employment scam? What happened to our Debt cleared by Obasanjo? Boko Haram sponsors? Where's Alimodu Sheriff? Secret trial of Ndume? Are u all crazy(Yes - all Ye PDP followers) ?

I just need a credible leader that can cleanse & sanitize this Country. Nigeria must be salvaged from the corrupt, reckless, clueless & indisciplined governance of Goodluck Ogogoro Jonathan.

Asari Dokubo thinks he's the only 1 who has access to military gears. I will just be patient & hibernate till February 15, 2005 - Nagode!

Zoharariel:


If Buhari doesn't win the 2015 election, WALLAHI-TALLAHI, even as a christian, I will organise, arrange, sponsor & replicate the terror of ISIS in my domain.

If not for anything, I must secure the future of my generations unborn. Y should any of my children/grand children be subjected to the same economic & social dehumanization that I experienced just because of some useless entities dividing us along religious line?

Can you imagine some bigots trying hard to convince us, in this age of technology, that Buhari has an agenda of islamizing Nigeria, when even our maximum dictator "Sanni Abacha" couldn't try it in the military era?

Is the subsidy scam not enough reason to boot out GEJ? And to think about the protection these subsidy thieves enjoy is sickening. What about the Immigration employment scam? What happened to our Debt cleared by Obasanjo? Boko Haram sponsors? Where's Alimodu Sheriff? Secret trial of Ndume? Are u all crazy(Yes - all Ye PDP followers) ?

I just need a credible leader that can cleanse & sanitize this Country. Nigeria must be salvaged from the corrupt, reckless, clueless & indisciplined governance of Goodluck Ogogoro Jonathan.

Asari Dokubo thinks he's the only 1 who has access to military gears. I will just be patient & hibernate till February 15, 2005 - Nagode!

Nice one my brother...

@ ashson
Sensible, analytic n thot provoking post!
Which way Nigeria?
God, into thy hands I commit this nation!
Let thy will be done.
Amen.

Buhari will surely win...