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Reasons Why Buhari May Never Beat Jonathan Or Any PDP Presidential Aspirant - Politics - Nairaland

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Reasons Why Buhari May Never Beat Jonathan Or Any PDP Presidential Aspirant by Justcash(m): 9:20am On Oct 22, 2014
I have reflected on the reasons behind the continuous failure of Buhari in the presidential race, and I was able to come up with few reasons why he may never be able to beat any presidential aspirant from PDP.

1: POWER OF INCUMBENCY
I have heard a lot of Nairalanders boasting about enforcing the proper counting of the people's vote. In NIGERIA, the people's vote can never count except the ruling party wants it that way. Due to the enormous power at their disposal, the ruling party can easily conjure political tricks to coerce electoral officials to do what they want, even if it means incurring collateral damage. I'm sure that is why PDP is currently quiet, observing how to conjure this scheme.

2: BUHARI'S RELIGIOUS POSTURE:
Buhari is currently being seen as an Islamic fundamentalist. Whether it is true or not is a story for another day. The truth is that his historical utterances about religious issues that are considered sensitive has permanently carved his picture as an Islamic supremacist in the hearts of many Nigerian Christians. The pattern of voting in the 2011 election reflected this feeling. Majority of the Christian south voted against him. It may potentially work against him in 2015.

3: EMERGENCE OF BOKO HARAM AND INCESSANT ATTACKS BY HAUSA AND FULANI MUSLIMS IN THE MIDDLE BELT:
A united Northern Nigeria would have guaranteed victory for any presidential aspirant from Northern Nigeria like Buhari. However, the religious based conflict that is currently going on in the Northern region have done a great disservice to such aspirants. Buhari will suffer from this. Even if some Part of Western Nigeria are currently rooting for him, a combo of majority votes (up to 85%) from the SE, SS AND MB, combined with a big chunk from the West and a little chunk from the Core North will guarantee victory for any aspirant against BUHARI.

4: POLITICS OF CORRUPTION :
This is the most controversial but significant factor that will give GEJ lots of vote against BUHARI. The tagline of most opposition party officials and supporters about Buhari is, "The Incorruptible Leader". The truth is that this tagline will work against him. The corrupt officials that are currently reaping enormously from the status quo will use all the resources they have to fight against the emergence of an incorruptible leader. Even the people's power, as far as Nigeria is concerned, cannot defeat these political goons. It will take a generally accepted leader that is very charismatic to effect this kind of change. That, as sad as it may be, is what Buhari is not.

5: PAST LEADERSHIP RECORD:
The past leadership record of Buhari as an iron fisted dictator will definitely work against him, especially since he is competing against a more liberal GEJ. His supporters and party perceive this as the antecedence of a great leader. However, the generality of Nigerians, especially from the Southern region of Nigeria, will view his aspiration as a great threat to human right. This is mostly true among pro-democracy proponents, academics and technocrats.

These are some few factors that I could identify that will potentially work against BUHARI, his true intention not withstanding. If I was in a position to advise APC, I will tell them to look beyond Buhari and pick someone like BABATUNDE FASHOLA or even ROCHAS OKOROCHA. These are some of the good leaders that may give PDP A REAL NIGHTMARE.

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Re: Reasons Why Buhari May Never Beat Jonathan Or Any PDP Presidential Aspirant by Dereformer(m): 9:24am On Oct 22, 2014
Justcash:
I have reflected on the reasons behind the continuous failure of Buhari in the presidential race, and I was able to come up with few reasons why he may never be able to beat any presidential aspirant from PDP.

1: POWER OF INCUMBENCY
I have heard a lot of Nairalanders boasting about enforcing the proper counting of the people's vote. In NIGERIA, the people's vote can never count except the ruling party wants it that way. Due to the enormous power at their disposal, the ruling party can easily conjure political tricks to coerce electoral officials to do what they want, even if it means incurring collateral damage. I'm sure that is why PDP is currently quiet, observing how to conjure this scheme.

2: BUHARI'S RELIGIOUS POSTURE:
Buhari is currently being seen as an Islamic fundamentalist. Whether it is true or not is a story for another day. The truth is that his historical utterances about religious issues that are considered sensitive has permanently carved his picture as an Islamic supremacist in the hearts of many Nigerian Christians. The pattern of voting in the 2011 election reflected this feeling. Majority of the Christian south voted against him. It may potentially work against him in 2015.

3: EMERGENCE OF BOKO HARAM AND INCESSANT ATTACKS BY HAUSA AND FULANI MUSLIMS IN THE MIDDLE BELT:
A united Northern Nigeria would have guaranteed victory for any presidential aspirant from Northern Nigeria like Buhari. However, the religious based conflict that is currently going on in the Northern have done a great disservice to such aspirants. Buhari will suffer from this. Even some Part of Western Nigeria rooting for him, a combo of majority votes (up to 85%) from the SE, SS AND MB, combined with a big chunk from the West and a little chunk from the North will guarantee victory for any aspirant against BUHARI.

4: POLITICS OF CORRUPTION :
This is the most controversial, but significant factor that will give GEJ lots of vote against BUHARI. The tag line of most opposition party officials and supporters about Buhari is, "The Incorruptible Leader". The truth is that this tagline wi work against him. The corrupt officials that are currently reaping enormously from the status quo will use all the resources they have to fight against the emergence of an incorruptible leader. Even the people's power, as far as Nigeria is concerned, cannot defeat these political goons. It will take a generally accepted leader that is very charismatic to effect this kind of change. That, as sad as it may be, is what Buhari is not.

5: PAST LEADERSHIP RECORD:
The past leadership record of Buhari as an iron fisted dictator will definitely work against him, especially since he is competing against a more liberal GEJ. His supporters and party perceive this as an antecedent of a great leader, but the generality of Nigerians, especially from the Southern region of Nigeria, will view his aspiration as a great threat to human right. This is mostly true among pro-democracy proponents, academics and technocrats.

These are some few factors that I could identify that will potentially work against BUHARI, his true intention not withstanding. If I was in a position to advise APC, I will tell them to look beyond Buhari and pick someone like BABATUNDE FASHOLA or even ROCHAS OKOROCHA. These are some of the good leaders that may give PDP A REAL NIGHTMARE.


What most people don't know is that OBJ and IBB would rather die than see GMB become the president of this country.
Re: Reasons Why Buhari May Never Beat Jonathan Or Any PDP Presidential Aspirant by Justcash(m): 9:47am On Oct 22, 2014
Dereformer:

What most people don't know is that OBJ and IBB would rather die than see GMB become the president of this country.

True. Apart from them, there are hundreds of billionaires that made their fortunes through corrupt means in Nigeria that will not want to hear about Buhari as the president of Nigeria. It will be a difficult task for him to win in the current political configuration.
Re: Reasons Why Buhari May Never Beat Jonathan Or Any PDP Presidential Aspirant by Nobody: 10:41am On Oct 22, 2014
AIRDIG:

Does the fact and figure below paint a portrait of an ethnic & religion fascist?
Are the media & Internet warriors feeding us with lies?
Are we trapped in the cycle of "crowd mentality"; parroting the lies & calumny of his enemies?
Are we capable of critical thinking and common-sense logic? You be the judge!

ANALYSIS OF THE 16 POSITIONS UNDER BUHARI'S GOVT (Note that Buhari's demography is highlighted in red font)
Religion
No of Muslim: 8
No of Christian: 8

Ethnicity I
Northerner: 10 = NC: 6 , NE: 3 , NW: 1
Southerner: 6 = SE: 2, SW: 2 , SS: 2

Ethnicity II
Middle-Belter: 5
Hausa: 2 + Fulani: 1
Yoruba: 3
Igbo: 2
Niger Deltan: 2
Kanuri: 1

Key Position
Chief of staff: Muslim Northerner (Military)
Defense: Christian Northerner (Military)
Finance: Christian Southerner (Civilian)
Energy: Christian Southerner (Civilian)
Justice: Christian Southerner (Civilian)

Civilian/Military Demography
Civilian: 9
Military: 7

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Re: Reasons Why Buhari May Never Beat Jonathan Or Any PDP Presidential Aspirant by Justcash(m): 11:12am On Oct 22, 2014
@AIRDIG;

Your attempt to justify Buhari's ethno-religious impartiality is well worked out. However, I am sure that his utterances like the famous one about the "Dogs and Baboons being soaked in blood" in the event of a loss in 2015 and his statement encouraging Muslims to vote for only Muslim presidential aspirants greatly drown your commendable effort. His reasons for these statements may be clean, but he erred by not considering the level of ethno-religious suspicion in Nigeria.

1 Like

Re: Reasons Why Buhari May Never Beat Jonathan Or Any PDP Presidential Aspirant by Nobody: 11:26am On Oct 22, 2014
Justcash:
@AIRDIG;
Your attempt to justify Buhari's ethno-religious impartiality is well worked out. However, I am sure that his utterances like the famous one about the "Dogs and Baboons being soaked in blood" in the event of a loss in 2015 and his statement encouraging Muslims to vote for only Muslim presidential aspirants greatly drown your commendable effort. His reasons for these statements may be clean, but he erred by not considering the level of ethno-religious suspicion in Nigeria.

I am not a Buhari supporter. You can verify this by going through my posts.
I am just against the falsehood being peddled all over the media

Thou shall not lie -Source: 10 commandments

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Re: Reasons Why Buhari May Never Beat Jonathan Or Any PDP Presidential Aspirant by arabbunkum: 11:52am On Oct 22, 2014
Most people don't know that IBB and OBJ would rather die than see Buhari as the president of this country. Moreover, Dangote is another serious opposition to Buhari's presidential ambition due to the fact that Buhari vowed to use half of Dangote's wealth to build roads in the North when he wins.

1 Like

Re: Reasons Why Buhari May Never Beat Jonathan Or Any PDP Presidential Aspirant by shizzleStar: 11:55am On Oct 22, 2014
AIRDIG:


[s]I am not a Buhari supporter. You can verify this by going through my posts.
I am just against the falsehood being peddled all over the media

Thou shall not lie -Source: 10 commandments[/s]
shut up!

you are not a buhari supporter yet you kept spamming every thread about buhari with your nosense, keep deceiving yourself
Re: Reasons Why Buhari May Never Beat Jonathan Or Any PDP Presidential Aspirant by Nobody: 11:57am On Oct 22, 2014
shizzleStar:
shut up!

you are not a buhari supporter yet you kept spamming every thread about buhari with your nosense, keep deceiving yourself

Oops! I don pour sand- sand for this guy garri o!
Choi e pain am!
Re: Reasons Why Buhari May Never Beat Jonathan Or Any PDP Presidential Aspirant by Justcash(m): 11:59am On Oct 22, 2014
AIRDIG:


I am not a Buhari supporter. You can verify this by going through my posts.
I am just against the falsehood being peddled all over the media

Thou shall not lie -Source: 10 commandments

You are right, but your well presented statistics still reflected the fact that the North was greatly favored. Irrespective of the religious differences, the North was politically united in the 60s, 70s and 80s. It's not like I see anything strange in it. It's just that some of the statements about Buhari being biased in political appointments may have been true, if you look at them objectively. I also agree that some statements about him are pure lies, but I've seen more statements with evidence than mere assertions.
Re: Reasons Why Buhari May Never Beat Jonathan Or Any PDP Presidential Aspirant by egift(m): 12:04pm On Oct 22, 2014
It is only Corrupt Politicians and their sychophants who made their money by duping Nigeria that are afraid of Buhari.

Buhari is elected will free these cash back to the system and also ensure that people do not blatantly steal government funds. That implies that there will be more money in the economy to develop the Nation and empower Nigerians to prosperity.

Every Nigerian must do all they can to make sure Buhari is elected. And that few rich men do not buy our soul, fortunes and the future of Nigeria.

4 Likes

Re: Reasons Why Buhari May Never Beat Jonathan Or Any PDP Presidential Aspirant by Nobody: 12:16pm On Oct 22, 2014
Justcash:


You are right, but your well presented statistics still reflected the fact that the North was greatly favored. Irrespective of the religious differences, the North was politically united in the 60s, 70s and 80s. It's not like I see anything strange in it. It's just that some of the statements about Buhari being biased in political appointments may have been true, if you look at them objectively. I also agree that some statements about him are pure lies, but I've seen more statements with evidence than mere assertions.

Statistically speaking, you can see that the boogeyman scare tactic of "he's not the Hausa/Fulani tribalist and Islamic extremist" is not supported by the data from this analysis.

1 Like

Re: Reasons Why Buhari May Never Beat Jonathan Or Any PDP Presidential Aspirant by Justcash(m): 12:55pm On Oct 22, 2014
egift:
It is only Corrupt Politicians and their sychophants who made their money by duping Nigeria that are afraid of Buhari.

Buhari is elected will free these cash back to the system and also ensure that people do not blatantly steal government funds. That implies that there will be more money in the economy to develop the Nation and empower Nigerians to prosperity.

Every Nigerian must do all they can to make sure Buhari is elected. And that few rich men do not buy our soul, fortunes and the future of Nigeria.

Be careful about how you trust politicians. There is a difference between being a president and striving to be one. Most importantly, you must always remember that politics is about who gets "What", "When" and "How". For example, knowing the need to protect political allies, will heads like those of Tinubu and Atiku roll too if Buhari wins? The difficulty in answering that question is exactly what I mean. It is a different ball game when you on the hot seat.

That been said, I share your optimism.

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