Zainab Usman, a doctoral candidate in International development at Oxford University and her colleague, Dr. Olly Owen, worked on this scholarly analysis of the coming general elections in Nigeria for months. They have now published their report, making projections on the likely outcomes of the election.

How accurate the predictions might turn out to be remains to be seen. But it is an interesting analysis that anyone interested in the election anywhere in the world should read.
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/170688-analysis-how-the-2015-elections-will-be-fought-and-won-analysts-say-jonathan-may-get-overall-majority-in-first-ballot.html

Jonathan must win. Bleep all 'em theories