Guys, I will try to make this assertion as brief as possible, so as not to bore my fellow Nairalanders. The main reason for the fall in oil prices and subsequently the fall in the naira is due to two and only two countries; Federal Republic of Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Let me elucidate my points below with regards to these two separate countries that are causing Nigerians the present hard times:
Russia:
We all know that the Russian annexation of Crimea in Ukraine and its recent support of the rebels in Eastern Ukraine really got the West very really angry and they felt impotent and helpless to do anything about it. As a result of these aggressive Russian machinations towards Ukraine, sanctions were imposed on Russia as well as on the close aides to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Though there were myriads of Russians; their businesses; and more sanctioned, the Russian economy was still waxing stronger and growing without much adverse effects on the GDP. Retrospectively though the Europeans remembered how the Russians spent about 50 billion dollars USD in the just conclude winter games in Sochi without even borrowing from the West or facing financial constraints. With this in mind and the fact that the Russian economy was not affected by the sanctions; the West, especially America came to see that their constant dependence on Russian gas and oil makes a mockery of their sanctions on Russia, as they kept pumping money in Russian oil while trying to make Putin withdraw from Ukraine (this was an irony they later realized and stopped!!! ). As such a few months ago, they decided to be dependent in matters of oil and gas. Then, the American discussions on shale oil of fracking became a reality. Ca you believe that with fracking America and West Europe within a few months almost became self sufficient in oil production? They reduced their purchase of Nigerian oil from 25% to less than 5%; within a few months? Not to even talk of Russia; as other Europeans who were against fracking now embraced it and BINGO ! The market now became over flooded with oil; thus bringing down the price of the black gold. Within a period of a few months, Russia has lost 100,000 billion dollars as no one seems to wat their oil..Ditto Nigeria.

Iran:
As for Iran, the Saudis have seen with amazement how the Iranians are exerting so much influence in the Middle East; which has historically been their sphere of influence with the help of America. The recent bombardment of ISIS positions in Syria by Iran really got the Saudis scared (not that they support ISIS). They are seeing Iran’s presence in Syria as a sign that one day it will be their turn to be distabilised by the Iranians. So therefore, they want to reduce or stop the cash flow to the Iranians. Due to the fact that Iran get more than 65% of its foreign exchange from oil; the Saudis feel and think its in their best interest if the price of oil keeps falling and stays low. Though I suspected this move about two weeks ago, it was confirmed to me by their recent actions last week at the Organization of Petroleum Exportig Countries) OPEC meeting last week in Vienna, Austria. While Iran, Nigeria and the rest wanted OPEC to reduce oil production Worldwide so as to raise prices per barrel; the Saudis on the other hand informed its fellow members in Opec without mincing words that if they dare reduce their productions, Saudi Arabia will increase its production to offset ay short fall. Guys, go and look at what is happening to Iranian economy right now, as they depend so much on oil exportation. Ditto! Nigeria. As for the Saudis they have a foreign reserve balance of 750 billion USD!!!

So therefore guys, we can see why our Naira is falling badly. There is oil, but no buyers….We have lost 20% buying from America and other percentages from other European Countries. You see? If no money is coming from abroad, our oil is as good as useless at the moment. Worst still is that it will keep falling for a while before stabilizing and returning to normal next year!!! We don suffer; this Christmas no go easy. The irony is that in spite of oil prices falling World-wide fuel in our pump stations keep rising!! I don’t get the economics of Nigeria at all.

Source: personal analysis

I'm coming to read!

[color=#990000][/color]If you want to hide something from a blackman, put it in a book!!! it will be hidden for a generation.

gtrust:
I'm coming to read!

BS analysis.

I cry for your employer.

my bros think it over...check what the Russian president said today. he is begging Russians with money in diaspora to come back with their money...that no checks will be instituted against how they made their mney, the federal revenue service will ot bother them, that no police enquiry on them...are you getting the picture? tune CNN now and see him talking!!!
ITS A PARADOX

ibedun:
BS analysis.

I cry for your employer.

ibedun:
BS analysis.

I cry for your employer.

he has try...
Can yu giv us ur own analyses..?

Your analysis is ok but abit off point.

emmysoftyou:
he has try...
Can yu giv us ur own analyses..?

I cannot give any analysis on the subject as i dont know enough. However, the subject of shale oil is far more complex and has PEST implications not mentioned in this shoddy analysis.

ibedun:



I cannot give any analysis on the subject as i dont know enough. However, the subject of shale oil is far more complex and has PEST implications not mentioned in this shoddy analysis.

I could not get into the technical jargons as i did not want to bore you guys with shale or fracking terminologies as i did not want to bore everyone. If you look at the first sentence i made, i stated that i was not gonna bore you guys with a long writeup. My initial write up was about 8 pages long. i had to cut it because i know alot of guys on this forum are bored with reading. And still what happens? the 1st commentator says its a long write up, that he eeds to come back later to read? despite me cutting it to 2 pages....