NIGERIANS FANTASY OF CHANGE THROUGH BUHARI/APC: Part 2 (Boko-Haram Ins urgency and Insecurity).


Today, the country’s nascent democracy is being tested by rampant crime and an unprecedented campaign of terror such that in the south, civil unrest threatens safety and stability, to the east; gangs who kidnap expatriate for ransom lie in wait on the roads, in bars, and cities; and to the north, the Islamic terrorist group called Boko Haram is growing both in number and brutality hence the group has posed brazen challenges to the government and issued the ultimatum “leave or die” to Christians living in the northern Nigeria and confidence that the government can protect the people is at all-time low. Make no mistake terrorism is perhaps the greatest threat not only to the corporate existence of a state but also to humanity. The magnitude of terrorist activities has reinforced the belief that a terrorist is a psychopath who does not show remorse for the pain he/she inflicts on people. But in Nigerian, many of my Buharist friends are of the opinion that either GEJ is a major sponsor of Boko-Haram or he is just clueless and incompetent in bringing an end to Boko-Haram. The Buharist have now embark of a campaign of hope and change, “GMB will bring an end to BOKO-Haram”, going by his records as a former Military man and his zero tolerance for corruption that has eaten deep into our security system. What a pity? It is only people that lack understanding of the origin of Boko-Haram and the process of their transformation from a rag tag militants that operates on bikes to carry out assassinations and sting attacks on police barracks in 2010/2011 will link Boko-Haram to GEJ or argue that GMB will end Boko-Haram. The same Buhari that was a target of assassination attempt early this year will just be handicap as GEJ or probably worse because Boko-Haram metamorphosized daily with advance training and weaponry.

In this piece, I will discuss why GEJ appears to have failed to tackle the Boko-Haram menace and why GMB is not going to succeed either. But before I explain further it is imperative to juggle our mind with some facts, where you place yourself will determine the type of solution you will propose. Space and time will not permit me to go into details of Boko-Haram history (you can read further in one of my publications titled: Rethinking Boko-Haram: The Contending Perspective among Nigerians in Diaspora and Youths. This publication is also listed as a source by dudley knox library naval postgraduate school)

BOKO-HARAM NARRATIVES

The Boko Haram terrorist group’s philosophy and activities have been subjected to different interpretations and narratives among the Nigerian populace. Such interpretations follow traditional lines of ethnic, regional, cultural, and religious cleavages in Nigeria. Some perceive it as war by Muslims against Christians, some as a sponsored conspiracy against the Muslim North, and others interpret it as the Northern war against the emergence of President Jonathan from the south-south geopolitical zone. A few regard it as a generic name for criminal gangs in Northern Nigeria. While overwhelming opinions in the south tilt toward a scorched-earth policy to counter Boko Haram, much of the north favors dialogue. One of the implications of these responses is the widening of already existing cleavages in Nigerian society, thereby further undermining efforts at building unity and coexistence among Nigeria’s varying nationalities. Regardless of the narratives (poverty and deprivation, Political Conspiracy, Islamic State and Global Political Jihad) that you want to choose, one factor is common, Alimodu Sherriff.

Boko-Haram came into political lime light during the civilian dispensation in Bornu state under the leadership of Governor Alimodu Sherriff. The politicians that are using them eventually lost the game against then and the sect activities went beyond control. I will state clearly that the root cause of this violence is not because the northern elite were angry that they lose power to the south. The violence started as a result of misunderstanding between Mohammed Yusuf, the leader of Boko-Haram and ex-Governor Alimodu Sherriff of Yobe state. This in turn led to the massacre and extra judicial-killing of Mohammed Yusuf and 700 others in 2009, after the crackdown the surviving members of Boko-Haram flee the country and find refuge in various terrorist camps in Mali, Somalia and others. All the people shouting sai Buhari now ignored the fact that the Nigerian army execution style of ISIS on Boko-Haram members is just like waking up a sleeping giant. All what Boko-Haram needs to do it to play the video of 2009 to the new recruits and they are ready to go. While most South-Westerners are commending Yaradua, myself and others including GMB condemned the barbaric act of Nigeria military crackdown of 2009. The same sai Buharist for 2015 tagged him fundamentalist back then, now he is no more a Godfather of terrorist; he is a saviour that will save Nigeria. I think we all have serious problem in this country; we have never been united on any cause except for Nigeria national football team.

In addition, research has shown clearly that the Borno state government was against the Boko-Haram not because of its teachings against western education, but for Yussuf fondness in abusing government officials for being corrupt and not representing the interest of the people. Also, it was widely reported in the media that the sects indicated the stoppage of their monthly allowance was part of the reason they started launching attacks against the government of Borno and Bauchi (note: many groups enjoyed similar treatments of monthly payment all over the country from politicians). The governors refuted the allegation as scandalous, however, it important to question the rationale behind the payment of 100 million naira to the Boko-Haram sects to pacify them for the death of their leader in 2009. It is surprising why my Buharist friends refused to pay close attention to the clash between two senators (APC members) in the National Assembly, Senator Alimodu Sherriff, the Ex -Governor of Borno State and Senator Ahmad Zanna alleging each other as the Kingpin and sponsor of Boko-Haram.
Everything is placed on Jonathan; the Boko-Haram issue is a very complex phenomenon that we all need to think carefully before having this fantasy of Boko-Haram defeat through Buhari.

PLAYING POLITICS WITH INSURGENCY

One thing I love about US and UK is that, when it comes to issue of National security most especially on domestic front, the tick ideological line of republican and democrat or labour and conservative quickly disappear. On the contrary, it is an open season for opposition to condemn and score political points on GEJ administration. To make matter worse, the Abbati and Okupe of this world will start to spit out political jargons blaming opposition as sponsors of attacks instead of appealing to the sense of reasoning of the masses to support whatever efforts that the government put in place to counter the menace. I was opportune to engage some of my Buharist friend that if GMB and APC really have antidote or there is a way they know that will curb this Boko-Haram madness, why can’t they bring it to the fore so that we can all be in peace. The response I got was, “don’t worry if GMB emerge he will solve it”. So thousands of people should die before the APC bring out a solution for us, there are many other areas that this administration has failed in which the GMB and APC can use as a campaign slogan. If they cannot offer alternative way to defeat Boko-Haram now, then those supporting them need to start asking serious question because we don’t know who is going to live up to May 29th 2015 at the rate Boko-Haram is going.
If my Buharist friends want to propose dialogue, GEJ has offered enough space for dialogue. He came up with Amnesty for the Boko-Haram members that are willing to embrace peace. All my Buharist friends in the South-West, South-South, and South-East were against it. They called GEJ names, clueless president, how can you give amnesty to killers, Niger delta was a different case, the militant have a genuine cause. Ok, he declared a state of emergency, APC and Northern leaders kicked against it, they started supporting international community on the claims of war crimes of Nigeria military, civilians are dying and moreover the emergency rule is not effective and bla bla bla. Ok, GEJ proposed full emergency rule (suspending all democratic power and civil liberty), it was met with strong resistant from opposition. While we were busy fooling ourselves and scoring political points, the common enemy continue to train, recruit and becoming stronger. To complicate matters, all action of GEJ against Boko-Haram was labelled anti-north. In many ways, the political class in Northern Nigeria reactions against FG decision to proscribe Boko-Haram sect with emphasis on the ethnic bias of GEJ is not helpful. For instance, Abubakar Tsav, former Lagos State Police Commissioner was quoted in an interview “Why did the President not include MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta), NDVF (Niger Delta Volunteer Force), OPC (Odua People’s Congress), Ombatse, etc in the ban since these organisations also engage in acts of terrorism.....

Laws are made for all but GEJ’s law is discriminatory and with ethnic bias” (The Punch News Paper, July 3rd, 2013). And we all want the menace to be over, if we continue playing politics, no president will succeed against Boko-Haram. Trust me, the politics of pull him down syndrome will continue if GMB emerge, Jonathanians will fights back with all what they got in their arsenal and we all know the end result.

FAKE BOKO-HARAM

It is arguably that, the dilemma of fake Boko-Haram posed more threat than that of the so call real Boko-Haram. According to the Nigeria’s Minister of Special Duties and Inter-Governmental Affairs, Alhaji Kabiru Turaki, “fake members of the Boko-Haram sect whose mission was to collect money showed up when dialogue was going on with key members of the Boko-Haram sect to end the insurgency in parts of the north” (PM NEWS, 8th October, 2013). This type of incident can easily explain why GEJ believes they are negotiating cease fire with Boko-Haram this year to release the Chibok girls. There are lot of Boko-Harams, and Shekarau appears to be a title.
Besides, there are incidents where suspected Boko-Haram members were arrested and later turned out not to be Boko-Haram members but impersonators who used the name of Boko-Haram to cause havoc. Armed robberies are sometimes credited to Boko-Haram and there are some politicians that used Boko-Haram as a cover to carry out assassinations. For example, on the 10th of March 2012, it was reported in Sky news and major media houses in Nigeria, Boko-Haram spokesman denied the involvement of the group in both the kidnapping and the killing of British Chris McManus and Italian Francesco Molinara after the government and media put the blame on them. It was apparent with the denial from Boko-Haram spokesman; some elements do orchestrate evil in the name of Boko-Haram. However, the arrest of a “fake Boko-Haram” member using the sect name to terrorize and extort money from people in Enugu state by Security operatives make it imperative for us to start thinking (Vanguard, October 25th, 2013). In another example a failed bombing in March 2012 of a church in Bauchi was said by the police to have been plotted by a rival Christian organization. Had the bombing gone to plan, it is easy to see how the attack would have been blamed on Boko Haram. The main challenge now is, who is real and who is fake Boko-Haram? Which attack are Boko-Haram orchestrated and which one is not? How GMB want to deal with fake Boko-Haram is not yet clear to me

NIGERIA ARMY AND WAR ON TERROR

To understand what is going on with Nigeria army, I will like to make reference to a similar situation in ISIS. The math seems so simple. The Iraqi army has 250,000 troops; its enemies, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), somewhere around 7,000. The Iraqi army has tanks, planes, and American training. ISIS has never fielded a tank or a plane and its troops didn't get formal training from an advanced military. Yet ISIS is demolishing the Iraqi army on the battlefield, seizing a massive swath of the country's northwest. Why? It comes down to two things: training and professionalism. ISIS learned how to fight, while the Iraqi army has long been a weak fighting force just like the Nigerian force living on past glory, moreover, they have never encounter this type of force before in their life. All the weapons in the world won't matter if you don't know how to wield them. And Boko-Haram’s victories, not to mention the Nigerian army's repeated failures, tell you a lot about the country's larger crisis. The ISIS example is a direct example of what is happening between Nigerian army and Boko-Haram, Nigerian army just like the Iraqi lack professionalism and training while Boko-Haram has over the time, focused on training in different terrorist camps all over the world for this type of warfare. It's hard to overstate how much of advantage this training and professionalism gives the Islamist group. Boko-Haram knows how to use smaller units effectively against larger forces. They're "very efficient, and you have to deal with that. This matters greatly. An undisciplined force, one whose movements aren't well coordinated or can't deploy proper tactics for taking city blocks, can be beaten by a much smaller opponent that knows what its doing.

However, Nigerian army lack everything a military unit required to engage in WAR ON TERROR (this is alien to our country and we were not prepared), yet the experienced western countries that supposed to assist us in dealing with this menace are blocking all chances of success that we might achieve against Boko-Haram. The sale of lethal weapons to Nigeria is prohibited by UK law because of human right violation of Nigeria Military in the process of fighting against Boko-Haram. "Without the training, they won't be able to get the equipment, and we aren't giving them the training either,"
Mr Hall a top UK military official said, (BBC, May 14th, 2014). The same excuse of International Humanitarian Law and conventional warfare rules of engagement abuse by Nigerian Military was given by the United State Government in their refusal in selling modern and effective equipment to Nigerian government to combat Boko-Haram. Yet, the effort of GEJ administration to acquire weapons through back channel in South Africa was sabotage by this group of countries that continue to malign the current administration of not paying attention to Boko-Haram crisis.
Fellow Nigerians, so you want Nigeria government to fight Boko-Haram with bow and arrow or cock and shoot guns. When we are talking about the countries that break International Humanitarian Laws with no respect to rules of engagement in Warfare, US, UK and all this western countries top the chart. Pakistan human right record is far worse than that of Nigeria, yet they received billions of dollars yearly, weapons, and military training among other things. Wake up country men Despite all odds, the Nigerian government has made some efforts to counteract the activities of the Islamist sect; the President, wanting to be seen to be doing something, sacked his National Security Adviser (Owoye Azazi) and Defence Minister (Bello Mohammed). Kabir Sokoto’s arrest was a landmark in Nigeria’s effort to combat the unpopular group.

The Goodluck Jonathan administration has also made drastic efforts to improve the current fragile security situation by giving priority to security in the 2012 budget and the subsequent years have witnessed increase. More than a thousand illegal immigrants from countries like Chad, Niger and Sudan have been deported from Nigeria and the Terrorism Prevention Act has been signed into law by the Nigerian President .The Nigerian security service’s discovery of bomb factories in the cities of Suleja, Kano, Yola and others places was also commendable. We cannot say that the deployment of troops to the northern states and declared a State of Emergency in three states in the region – Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe, have been a total failure, there are some level of success of Nigerian army despite all criticism, they pushed Boko-Haram into Sambisa Forest until lately that they resurface to carry out suicide attacks in Abuja and Kano. My argument is not to eulogies the army, but recognition of their sacrifice is not too much for every Nigerians to give From my understanding about global political jihad, the security service has not been able to prevent several deadly suicide attacks not because the government is not doing anything but because we are fighting against people that are not afraid to die. If you have opportunity to meet any Islamic fundamentalist that beliefs in the 72 virgins and martyrdom, you will understand that no amount of wealth, military muscle or technological prowess could erect an effective shield against the actions of desperate men that are not afraid to die. I want all Nigerians to read and try looking inside the mind of Islamic terrorists to understand why they are willing to give up their lives-and why they can't be stopped by weapons made by man.
Indoctrinated since childhood and trained in secret camps across the world, they are dominated by an aggressive false religion and fueled by a belief that they are doing God's will.
I don’t know if GMB will be successful to change the mentality of people that beliefs in the more people you kill, the higher your reward in heaven.

CHIBOK GIRLS

It will be highly insensitive if I don’t talk about chibok girl’s abduction, and to be honest I felt bad for them just as I felt bad for any victim of terrorism. But the simple truth is that the chances of seeing those girls again are very slim. If some of them can develop resilience against been brainwashed, we might see them again. It is laughable that the US and UK despite committing considerable military resources to hunts Joseph Kony of Lord Resistant Army in Uganda (Kony specialized in Kidnapping young boys as child solider and girls as sex slaves and soldiers in some cases) can come out to say Nigerians has failed to rescue those girls after they themselves failed to rescue more than 60,000 children (boys and girls) from Kony bondage. Trust me if those children are Chibok boys, there will be no attention and noise, a lot of mushroom NGOs has become rich overnight because Gender equality campaign attract international funding. People are so wicked, for selfish interest they are promising what they cannot do. For God sake, Nigerian army specialized in conventional warfare, this explains why they were successful in ECOMOG, however our army is confronted by enemy that is well trained and equipped in unconventional and guerrilla warfare. Yet, the same US and UK supporting BringBackOurGirls groups refused to offer training and blocked all access to purchase modern weapon to match the firepower of Boko-Haram. If Pakistan, a nuclear war power with a strong army cannot stop the Talibans carnage, the combination of United Nations Coalition forces and Iraqi army cannot stop ISIS slaughter house, I don’t know how GMB want to tackle people that sees him as infidel which deserves to be beheaded. Make no mistake, BOKO-Haram was listed as number 3 terrorist group in the world ahead of FARC, AQIM, Al Shabab, so we are not just dealing with some small boys with toy guns since some of my Buharist friends believes that GMB will be successful has he did with the Maitasine of 1984. If my Buharist friends are thinking GMB can negotiate with these animals or think they are Muslims, start thinking again, they are not human, they don’t have a religion, they are lunatic from planet destruction.

The only way we can survive this warfare is to stop playing politics with terrorism, bring your ideas to the table and let us put it to test, waiting until you get to power is not only callous but wicked. Also, we need to mobilize 2/3 of all our army and suspend all civil liberty in the three states affected. Yes, there will be civilian casualty but necessary, let the international community make their noise. Put amnesty on the table for those that are ready, I am very sure that some will be ready to help to providing intelligence. We should forget about US, and UK, we need to start looking at Russia and China for support in terms of weapon even though US and UK hardware’s are more effective, we just need to start doing something. Nigerians should stop promoting the videos of Boko-Haram attacks; it is an insult to Nigerian soldiers that have lost their lives in defending our nations. Are we saying Nigerians soldiers don’t record any success against Boko-Haram, spreading Nigerian army success video is morale booster and a necessity in the fight against terrorism. Despite the fact that ISIL committed more crime than Boko-Haram, Syrians and Iraqis just don’t go on social media to be spreading the carnage of ISIL. It took Nigerian media 3 days before they reported the victory of our army in Konduga, and one would have expected the video to go viral on Facebook and YouTube but spreading such video is a victory for GEJ. We need to unite together, Pakistanis did not start calling their President names when Taliban suicide bombers killed 142 school children two week ago rather they put the blame on the evil doers. If you pull me down to get to the top, I will also pull you down, so who is the winner (Boko-Haram) and who is the Looser (Nigerians)?

NB: There are lots of things I want to say but it will be too voluminous (even this is too long), I hope to read your comments and probably I will have the chance to express my remaining thought then. Part 3 of this piece will be out before New Year. Thanks

Good analysis and narrative.