The article are praised for highlighting issues in
Nigeria, as well as discussing popular topics,
current events and famous people.
In one of his latest articles, Momodu predicted
how votes will be shared between a former Head
of State, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, and the
incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan come
2015 presidential elections in Nigeria.
According to the Momodu, if Nigerians are asked
to elect their president today, Buhari would
defeat President Jonathan mercilessly.
Below is how Dele Momodu came to this
conclusion:
“Fellow Nigerians, time changes everything
indeed. In 2011, I would have said worse things
about General Muhammadu Buhari. In truth, I
actually wrote Buhari off completely, not without
cogent reasons that I considered valid and
relevant at that time. The first was that Buhari
was too old to lead us.
I was biased by the Obama Presidency and the
emergence of David Cameron in Britain. I felt
Buhari as a former dictator should be totally
expunged from the race. I was also brainwashed
by the relentless propaganda that he was a
religious fundamentalist of the worst kind. If I
was good in Fine Arts, I would have painted him
in the lurid and monstrous image of Lucifer. That
was how bad it was.
Trust me, I’m supposed to be one of the most
liberal and tolerant human beings but it was just
difficult for me to accept Buhari as a Presidential
candidate at this time and age. I nearly clashed
with my dear friend and brother, Simon
Kolawole, after reading an article he had penned
on Buhari and practically endorsing him at that
time. I was so livid that I did not wait for Simon
to get out of church before I started bombarding
his lines with frenetic calls. When he eventually
got back to me, and in his usual humble manner
said “Egbon, I missed your calls, hope all is well?”
I responded that all was not well as he had spoilt
my appetite and breakfast that morning with his
effusive praise of someone I considered a red-
faced tyrant.
Simon was as cool as cucumber. He was
incredibly blunt as he instantly confessed his
unrepentant love, admiration and support for
Buhari…
So far, in all 2015 Opinion polls, Buhari is
beating Jonathan mercilessly.
Without doubt, Buhari is a modern-day wonder.
The story of his life is a stuff of thriller novels. In
a country where money fixes most things and
people, how did he manage to control the bodies
and souls of his fanatical supporters? What is it
that makes him such a dual personality that
draws so many people to him while others
withdraw as if to run away from a victim of
Ebola? What can Buhari do or achieve at his age
in this modern world where life itself has
become computerised? I suffered from this
interior monologue for a long time.
Some of my fears started evaporating one night
in Abuja when I was invited over to meet him at
the instance of Prince Lanrewaju Tejuoso, one of
his godsons. I was dazed at the ease Prince
Lanrewaju was able to get him to meet with me
at such short notice. I was impressed that there
were no intruders during our heart-to-heart talk.
Perhaps, because he had no money to share, the
usual parasites crawling all over the corridors of
power were not in sight. He spoke calmly but
firmly. He had this childlike innocence around
him. It was difficult to imagine this man sitting
across me could hurt a fly even as a soldier.
There were no airs around him or chips on his
shoulders. What you saw was what you got; take
it or leave it. Many had confessed to similar
reaction upon meeting him.
We took pictures together without much ado.
And I actually found him more charismatic than
my jaundiced eyes could have permitted. What I
saw was that raw Fulani beauty and
handsomeness. I and my aides left the place
liking him a bit.
Of course the election came as usual and Dr
Goodluck Ebele Jonathan trounced Buhari
mercilessly. But most of us got so carried away
that we failed to appreciate how well the man
had performed against all odds. Here was a man
without loads of cash. He didn’t have a
preponderance of powerful Governors behind
him. He could not mobilise so many billionaires
to fund him. He lacked the power of incumbency.
He could not secure the much needed coalition
with ACN at the time. Many Christians saw him as
Satan on earth. Many youths considered him too
old. The super-rich saw him as the sword of
Damocles dangling over them. All the odds were
stacked up against him. Yet this poor man, as I
like to describe him, recorded a whopping
12,214,853 votes while President Jonathan
scored 22,495,187 votes.
Let’s break it down into simple Maths. Jonathan
had a good spread scoring 25% or more in 31
States. Buhari managed to score 25% or more in
16 States and yet got a cumulative result of over
12 million votes. A good Mathematician should
be able to help us here because I wish to show
our President’s handlers that they will pay
heavily for complacency if they assume and take
it for granted that they can beat Buhari easily
like PDP had always done in the past. Let me
explain it further. A man who won the
mandatory 25% in about half of the States
secured by the President still went ahead to poll
over half of what the President got. Now this is
the trickery part.
Let me begin with the most obvious. Buhari had
only 37.96% in Adamawa while Jonathan had
56%. The registered voters were 1,816,094 but
the voter-turnout was a miserable 49.98%. With
the way the country is right now, PDP would
require a miracle to win Adamawa with a
landslide. If Buhari secures the APC ticket, it is
almost certain that he would clean up that State.
And in case the voters turn out much bigger, it
means that State can wipe off some of the
deficits Buhari suffered in 2011. The two leading
parties can still jerk up about one million extras
which won’t be a bad idea even if PDP still gets
25% or more.
Let’s walk across to another interesting State,
Bauchi where Buhari recorded 1,315,209 against
Jonathan’s 258,404 despite the avuncular
presence of PDP Governor, Yisa Yuguda. The
registered voters here were 2,523,614 but only
1,610,094 voters chose to vote with nearly
1,000,000 voters hibernating somewhere. I hope
you’re patient enough to follow this Maths
lesson.
Benue would certainly be a major battle ground
this time for the candidates because the State
has over 1.3 million voters (out of a total
registration of 2,390,884) buried somewhere for
the strongest candidate to resurrect. Here
ethnicity and religion would play critical roles
more than ever before. It is presently a virtual
PDP State with Jonathan polling 694,776 against
Buhari’s 109,680 and ACN (Nuhu Ribadu)
223,007. Benue had always been a State of
enlightened voters and it may swing in favour of
a serious candidate.
Let’s keep moving and find somewhere to land in
the troubled spot of Borno State. This is a
treasure ground with 2,380,957 out of which
more than half of the voters have absconded
and vanished into thin air. In 2011, Buhari
909,763 against the President’s humble 207,075
votes. Now this State is under fire but is NOW
largely controlled by the new alliance known as
APC.
Let’s saunter across to Gombe where Buhari
scored 459,898 against Jonathan’s 290,347 votes
out of a total registration of 1,318,377. All the
parties combined recorded 770,019 voters. The
implication of this is that if this State decides to
be generous, it may dash out about 548,358
votes. We are still moving and scavenging for the
votes wherever they are hiding.
Let’s say some quick Hello to our Brother,
Governor of Jigawa State, Sule Lamido, who
couldn’t hold Buhari down despite his equally tall
physique. Here Buhari polled 663,994 against
Jonathan’s 419,252. Total votes cast came to
1,140,766 out of 2,013,974 total registrations. Do
not say I told you, this State has some 873,208
unseen registered voters probably
perambulating as we write. This journey is still
long and arduous.
Kaduna is a major war zone for the candidates
because of its peculiar characteristics. Buhari’s
supremacy was hotly challenged as Jonathan
polled 1,190,179 against Buhari’s 1,334,244
votes . Total votes cast were 2,569,963 out of
3,905,387 total registered voters. Now wait for
the good news of the kingdom; this beautiful
State has 1,335,424 voters that it can conjure
whenever needed or ready.
If you think Kaduna was super, please, wait for
the almighty Kano where no serious candidate
can play silly pranks with the energetic and
fearless Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso. In 2011,
Buhari massacred Jonathan with 1,624,543
against 440,666. The then Governor and
Presidential candidate, Ibrahim Shekarau even
scored more than the President with his 526,310
votes. The total votes cast came to 2,673,228 out
of 5,027,297. In case your Maths is poor like
mine, let’s find a calculator before the brains
explode. Kano alone can conveniently and
benevolently donate 2,354,069 potential voters
out of the skies.
We finally arrive in Buhari’s homestead of
Katsina where he expectedly polled 1,163,919
against Jonathan’s 428,392. It is either many
Katsina people didn’t dig their own son, since
prophets hardly get honoured at home, or
Buhari just didn’t employ artful dodgers to
manipulate the votes in his favour. In all,
1,639,532 voters performed their civic duty out
of 3,126,898 registered voters. By fire, by force,
Katsina on a good day can still conjure some
1,487,366 votes.
Please, permit me to fast forward to the State of
the Sokoto Caliphate where a floodgate can still
be opened. Strangely, Buhari pulled merely
540,769 shots against Jonathan’s 309,057. A total
of 909,808 voters came out of 2,267,509
registered voters. No one is able to explain this
anomalous situation to us properly but some
1,357,701 unseen voters may decide to show up
in 2015. Please, bear with me, you must be
getting tired but we need to do this together
because of my over-confident friends in Abuja
who must have had F9 in Mathematics like me.
Let me now give you the shock treatment and
take you straight to the biggest theatres of war. I
must warn that this not for the faint-hearted.
Welcome to the heartbeat of Nigeria known as
Lagos State where Jonathan polled 1,281,688
against Buhari’s 189,983 and Nuhu Ribadu’s
427,203. Wait for this, only 1,945,044 voters
turned up out of 6,108,069 voters. In effect,
Lagos can, in its true majesty, produce additional
4,163,025 out of its bag of magic.
I wish there was space to display all the figures
but it won’t be possible. But let me continue with
the random sampling. Many of the States won by
Jonathan or PDP or both, depending on why you
voted in 2011, are not so easily available at this
time. Take Oyo for example under the control of
APC beyond the next Presidential election may
prove too tough to handle. Only 863,544 out of
2,572,140 voters appeared in public but we don’t
know the whereabouts of 1,708,596 potential
voters.
Ogun State is another interesting territory where
543,715 people voted out of 1,941,170 who
registered to vote.
Meanwhile, the largest turnout of voters was
recorded in areas controlled by Jonathan but
let’s examine the figures. Abia has used up
1,188,333 out of 1,524,484; Akwa Ibom 1,232,395
out of 1,616,873; Anambra 1,157,239 out of
2,011,746; BAYELSA 506,693 out of 591,870; Cross
River 726,341 out of 1,148,486; Delta 1,398,579
out of 2,032,191; Edo 621 out of 1,655,776;
Ebonyi 502,890 out of 1,050,534; Ekiti 261,858
out of 764,726; Enugu 814,009 out of 1,303155;
Imo 1,409,850 out of 1,687,293; Kwara 414,754
out of 1,152,361; Ondo 486,837 out of 1,616,091;
Osun (lost by Jonathan) 512,714 out of
1,293,967; Rivers (the largest State in South
South) 1,854,116 out of 2,429,231 and so and so
on.
This should give you a fair representation of
what is at stake in the 2015 election. Politics is
not exactly Maths but it is still a game of
numbers. Those who think an incumbent
President cannot be defeated should wake up
from their self-induced coma. The mood of the
Nigerian nation is very similar to that which
swept Obama into power. Lagos and Kano
combined account for 11,135,366 registered
voters out of a grand total of 73,528,040. Only
38,199,219 people voted in all the States. There
are 35,328,821 floating somewhere. Most of
them are comfortably resident in APC States.
My free advice to the Jonathan campaigner is
simple; stop projecting our President as a
sectional leader whose only qualification is
where he comes from. Stop raining insults on
Northerners and avoid maligning innocent
Muslims. The religious card you wish and hope to
play will never play out in favour of President
Jonathan. You should concentrate on projecting
the positive work and his Transformation
Agenda. A President is the father of the nation. A
lot of damage has been done by portraying him
as a victim who’s derided by everyone except his
own.
The President’s handlers should worry more
about how the goodwill of 2011 got frittered
away in such a jiffy. Above all, they should
urgently search for competent Maths teachers.
Believe me, the figures are no longer adding up.”
Let's imagine that the final face off in the
race for the place at the Aso Rock is today.
Who would be the winner, in your opinion?
Muhammadu Buhari, APC (80%, 4,485 Votes)
Goodluck Jonathan, PDP (20%, 1,133 Votes)
Total Voters: 5,618
What is your take on this?

Dele u tried with this calculation and permutation, and I think u are very correct. People voted Jona that time because of sentiment and emotion, eyes are opening now they are seen clearly. But ve something agaisnt u, u said u wrote off Buhari even without thorough investigation and information that is very bad of u, anyway thank God u are now seen better than bofore. Let me say congratulations to u.

ok

With CPC having only 1 state and were only few months old, Buhari got 12 million votes. Today Buhari's candidacy is backed by about 14 State Governors, Senators, Reps, Former Heads of State, more State, present in States he did not get votes, have not lost popularity in States he won the last time - It is only an Agent working for corruption will not see a Buhari Victory.

While Jonathan and his supporters are counting on power of incumbency and the souls 21 billion and other stolen wealth can buy - Buhari is placing his aspiration in the hands of Nigerians to elect him.

Sai Buhari 2015.

Majority of Nigerians are disappointed in Jonathan - including a man that brought him forward an burnt a lot of political capital.

Today GEJ is left deserted that he now have to go to the "letter-bomb-expert". OBJ is no longer very enthusiastic of Jonathan's Presidency because of failures and for surrounding himself with very corrupt and people of low character. The zoologist will be sent Home.

Sai Buhari 2015.

The hand writing is on the wall, finally light at the end of the tunnel. Change you are welcome.

[size=15pt]HOW JONATHAN WILL WIN 2015 ELECTION[/size]
Written by [size=15pt]Simon Kolawole[/size] ex This day editor and a die-hard Buhari supporter.

I have been listening to comments and reading analyses on the 2015 presidential election with rapt attention. There is nothing unanimous in the predictions and projections, but I am sensing a trend in the analyses: that if the All Progressives Congress (APC) fields Maj. General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) against President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), then it will be a piece of cake for the former head of state. A Buhari supporter, in a recent newspaper interview, said Buhari's votes in the North plus Bola Tinubu's votes in the south-west equal automatic victory for APC.


Slow down a bit, guys. I have no intention of raining on anyone's parade or pouring cold water on exciting calculations, but analyses do not have to be this simplistic. If the history and politics of elections in Nigeria are to be of any use in these postulations, the safest bet will be to say there are still many rivers to cross. My intention today is to draw attention to several facts and factors that will be at play during the elections. Many things are still taking shape; opportunities and threats still exist for the PDP and the APC. It is too early in the day to arrive at definite conclusions.


Let us look into some of the assumptions one by one. The first is that Buhari will clear the votes in the core North and Tinubu will deliver the South-west votes in one basket. That Buhari will win in the core North has never been in dispute ─ he has done so consistently since 2003. It is unthinkable that he will not win there. However, I'm not sure Tinubu can clear the South-west the same way Buhari could do in the core North. It appears many commentators have not been monitoring recent developments in the South-west. To start with, two of the six states ─ Ekiti and Ondo ─ are now in the hands of PDP. That is important to note.


Meanwhile, the APC is getting weaker in Oyo state. The three APC senators have left the party; the death of Alhaji Alao Arisekola has dealt some body blow on Governor Abiola Ajimobi; former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala (PDP) is on a rebound; former Governor Rashidi Ladoja, who controls large portions of Ibadan, is complicating things for APC. In Ogun, Governor Ibikunle Amosun is under fire from within and without. Chief Olusegun Osoba, in whose camp the Ogun APC senators and house members are, is playing hard ball with Amosun. The PDP, meanwhile, is bringing back its break-up groups and rebuilding in the state.


In simple words, Oyo and Ogun have become very shaky and it is a bit tenuous to assume the South-west will vote en bloc for APC in 2015. I may well be wrong, but I am seeing a split of the zone's 13.5 million votes. The South-west, in my opinion, is neither here nor there yet. No assumptions should be made and no conclusions should be reached yet, certainly not in October 2014. Of course, the APC is not sleeping and is also hoping to gain from the fall-outs from PDP's possible slips in the coming weeks. But South-west does not look like one-way traffic as at today.


Meanwhile, there is also this assumption that Buhari ─ or APC ─ does not need the South-east and South-south (SESS). That is ridiculous. First, it is not good for Buhari's CV that he has never won in any Southern state since he launched his presidential bid in 2003. Not one state. And it is also not good political strategy to downplay SESS. There are 11 states in these two geo-political zones. The APC calculation may be that the South-south would rather have a "son of the soil" as president. The South-east, it seems, is fully joined in matrimony to South-south under Jonathan's presidency. But does that mean giving up without a fight?


Let us now reverse the case. Jonathan, despite knowing that the core North will be a difficult hunting ground for him, is putting up a decent fight. He is working to secure as many votes as possible in Buhari's territory. The president has gathered many strong politicians to his side. Now let us do some basic calculations. SESS has 17 million votes combined. Buhari's home zone, North-west, has 18.7 million registered voters. If Jonathan bites off as much as 30-40% of the votes in the North-west (which he did in 2011) while Buhari does poorly in SESS (like before), Jonathan would clearly gain more than Buhari in the candidates' home zones.


Jonathan's chances, in the meantime, are also bright among the Northern minorities. It could be minority solidarity, I can't say. The North-central has 11 million names on the voter register. Jonathan's reconciliation with former military, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, and the governor of Niger State, Dr. Babangida Aliyu, could help him in Niger state. Kogi, Plateau, Nasarawa and Benue would ordinarily back Jonathan. But Kwara, which supported him in 2011, is now uncertain, with the godfather, Bukola Saraki, relocating to APC. Buhari will fancy his chances in Kwara, that is if Saraki can ward off his PDP foes, who look very formidable. In truth, Kwara now looks more like a tight corner for both parties.


The North-east, boasting of 11 million registered voters, could be a mixed bag. Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe and Borno have always gone to Buhari, while Taraba and Adamawa seem to have a thing for Jonathan. But something significant has changed in Borno: Ali Modu Sheriff is now in PDP. Since 1999, Borno has always faced any direction Sheriff pointed to, and his defection must be considered a loss to APC. I was not surprised at APC's reaction when Sheriff left: Borno's 2.5 million votes are the nation's fifth largest after Lagos (5.4m), Kano (4.7m), Kaduna (3.7m) and Katsina (2.9m). Being Buhari's familiar hunting ground, however, Borno could still be game for him.


Before I shut down my computer, I would like to maintain that unlike many observers and analysts, I foresee a very competitive election. And, I think, four months to the polls, we should avoid jumping into certain conclusions. One of the major failings of the opposition is that they underrated Jonathan's ability to respond to the momentum they gained last year. Before they could settle down to savour the heavyweight defections from PDP to APC, the Jonathan camp had launched a counter offensive, in addition to benefitting from crises arising from the consolidation process of APC.


Therefore, dear readers, with what I have seen in Nigeria in the last few months, and what I understand about the dynamics of our electoral politics, I would conclude that the day is still young. For the two leading parties, there are still many hurdles to clear. Let the game begin!
http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/jonathan-and-the-2015-calculations/192278

The whole nation knows GEJ will win, except dreamers.

Buhari, should go and sit down probably find snuff and put on his nose!

I agree with this post, politics is not something you can predict, we might be seeing good luck as a weakling but I bet you the man will gather momentum at the 11 hour, unfortunate for APC they are neglecting the ssse region not knowing that if Goodluck should get 40 percent of sw and the North that he has won the election. Any let's watch as the days goes by.