Very fair and well balanced analysis. Kudos to the Op

omoalaro:


You still dont get it!!!
In 2011:
Benue PDP got 66.31% and CPC got 10.47%

Kogi PDP got 71.17% and CPC got 23.53%

Kwara PDP got 64.68% and CPC got 20.16%

Nasarawa PDP got 58.89% and CPC got 40.08%

Niger PDP got 31.54% and CPC got 64.03%

Plateau PDP got 72.98% and CPC got 25.27%

These are the results when GEJ had so much going for him, Big politicians, religious and ethnic sentiments and so much goodwill.
Can he repeat these same results in these states in 2015?

Political structures deliver results and not necessarily "popularity".

The PDP still controls Benue politics: the governor Suswan, Senate President David Mark and so on.

In Kogi, the sitting governor is PDP. Irrespective of his perceived unpopularity, he is still the party leader and you should know what that means. Alh. Ahmadu Alli, who has a knack for getting things done is an influential politician in Kogi. Smart Adeyemi also has considerable clout. All three senators are PDP.

For Kwara, the APC is in a pole position to clear things . Save for PDP guber primaries that generated bad blood, the party still has structures in the state. Gbemisola Saraki, Simeon Ajibola, Belgore among others still have some following.

The two leading parties/candidates will about counterbalance themselves in Nassarawa. Al-Makura is in APC, but the state house of assembly is controlled by the PDP. Primordial considerations will also play a part to some extent.

The case of Niger will be interesting. The Chief Servant has clearly made public of where his allegiance lies. By the time you factor in the IBB angle, the picture will become clearer. In 2011, Babangida Aliyu was the arrowhead of anti-Jonathan sentiment in the north. He effortlessly delivered Niger to CPC. This time around, the PDP might just marginally nick it Niger.


Plateau is traditionally a PDP state. All indicators are pointing to a resounding victory for the party. From the PDP guber candidate, Sen Giang Pwajok, who is as good as elected, to outgoing governor Jonah Jiang and Joshua Dariye, the PDP can only maintain their momentum. Most heavyweight politicians, including Ibrahim Mantu are in the PDP.

You mean they hate GEJ, not because he is not doing a whole lot simply, that he is a minority from the south and a Christian. More reason Nigeria will never be at peace or one Nigeria..

Kingspin:
You mean they hate GEJ, not because he is not doing a whole lot simply, that he is a minority from the south and a Christian. More reason Nigeria will never be at peace or one Nigeria..

Who said that, a figment of supposition? Many a people would migrate out of Nigeria to neighboring Cameron and Niger after February 14.

ziccoit:


Who said that, a figment of supposition? Many a people would migrate out of Nigeria to neighboring Cameron and Niger after February 14.

Me i de my house then even, if i have not witness before i hear and watch them on TV. The spirit of war will come upon me by that hour.. Run go where? I want Peace anyway in Nigeria, what about others.

agabusta:
So Bensonn what's your likely prediction generally in the North Central for the two candidates in percentages?

58% for APC. 42% for PDP

maestroferddi:
BENUE STATE: PDP 65% APC 35%

KOGI STATE: PDP 58% APC 42%

KWARA STATE: APC 67% PDP 34%

NASARAWA STATE: PDP 51% APC 49%

NIGER STATE: PDP 52% APC 48%

PLATEAU STATE: PDP 72% APC 28%

Predictions based on political structures on ground and not media propaganda, rally turnouts and sentiments.

PDP will not win Nassarawa, I can bet my life savings on that, senator Adamu that completely controls the Keffi zone(Keffi,nassarawa,Karu, kokona and Toto), is now a die APC unlike in 2011. In 2011 almakura is not the incumbent, again the mood of the "Hausa" Muslims and other Muslim communities is charged up now unlike in 2011. Platuae will not be a landslide as you projected, even many ppl that are xtains won't vote GEJ. And in kwara tell yourself the truth APC will win landslide

Bensonn:


PDP will not win Nassarawa, I can bet my life savings on that, senator Adamu that completely controls the Keffi zone(Keffi,nassarawa,Karu, kokona and Toto), is now a die APC unlike in 2011. In 2011 almakura is not the incumbent, again the mood of the "Hausa" Muslims and other Muslim communities is charged up now unlike in 2011. Platuae will not be a landslide as you projected, even many ppl that are xtains won't vote GEJ. And in kwara tell yourself the truth APC will win landslide

you are so amusing, so far, all your analysis has shown that you are not a Nigerian, and you are not an active politician. you are so ignorant of the powers of the incubents(money inclusive) especially when there is hunger in the land.

Note: not caused by GEJ, but by previous Northan leaders who delibrately impoverished their people.


but i wont argue with you here on nairaland, because i dont believe that elections are won on the pages of social media! and that is the problem with you APC folks. continue seating down in your bedroom with your dry predictions, while we are out there campaining, doing our home work, going from house to house, and convincing people, giving them reasons why they should vote GEJ. that is the difference between APC and PDP!

maestroferddi:
BENUE STATE: PDP 65% APC 35%

KOGI STATE: PDP 58% APC 42%

KWARA STATE: APC 67% PDP 34%

NASARAWA STATE: PDP 51% APC 49%

NIGER STATE: PDP 52% APC 48%

PLATEAU STATE: PDP 72% APC 28%

Predictions based on political structures on ground and not media propaganda, rally turnouts and sentiments.

Well based on reality of things on ground here in Niger state APC will win upto 70% in February but PDP will still win the Governorship by 80-90%. An APC governorship candidate is non existence so Nasko of Pdp has the governorship and the people loves him.
Now the presidential is not about PDP or APC it's strictly about Jonathan and Buhari simple!
And for other states in the North who Bokoharam have visited in recent times would rather vote for Buhari too so that way I see him covering beyond his Hausa or APC people alone but other ethnics and religion in the entire region.

meforyou1:
Op, u must high on cheap grass. PDP will disgrace APC in Niger

What is Dis one Sayin? Niger garner one of the highest percentage for buhari under CPC in 2011 polls

Bensonn:


The only thing that will make GMB garner up to 40% votes Platuea state is his supporters in Jos, PDP has grassroot structure accros the state. And with two former governors contesting on the same day as the the presidential polls, PDP will clearly win. And you think religion doesn't play a factor in platuae state? Hmmmn it will play oooo my brother

this is an un biased analysis and very en lightning I think u merit an award when its comes to comparative analysis on critical issues,ur followers just increased,and do please do analysis on North central,south west and south east,permit me to copy come of ur analysis,regards

Bensonn:


The only thing that will make GMB garner up to 40% votes Platuea state is his supporters in Jos, PDP has grassroot structure accros the state. And with two former governors contesting on the same day as the the presidential polls, PDP will clearly win. And you think religion doesn't play a factor in platuae state? Hmmmn it will play oooo my brother

40% in just 3 local government out of 17, rethink bro, 69% PDP other political parties will share 31%

dtruth3:
you are so amusing, so far, all your analysis has shown that you are not a Nigerian, and you are not an active politician. you are so ignorant of the powers of the incubents(money inclusive) especially when there is hunger in the land.

Note: not caused by GEJ, but by previous Northan leaders who delibrately impoverished their people.


but i wont argue with you here on nairaland, because i dont believe that elections are won on the pages of social media! and that is the problem with you APC folks. continue seating down in your bedroom with your dry predictions, while we are out there campaining, doing our home work, going from house to house, and convincing people, giving them reasons why they should vote GEJ. that is the difference between APC and PDP!

Oga you de joke oo , the OP was very generous with % for PDP in Niger and benue even in kogi state. PDP will definitely lose Nassarawa, Niger, Kogi and kwara, platuea and benue will be very close, .....I am suspecting that GEJ will lose his election, but I do not know what with happen after that, Jega may run away after he discovers that GEJ has lost, let there be no crises too na beg I de beg

When I read most comments here I laugh cos u mak ur analysis on wat u see in d cities bt 4get d elections r won in d rural areas with the majority of voters. APC is a fairly new party n does nt ve d structures in d remote areas n dat is wia money politics place u can ask Rivers people hw d results 4m d rivarine changes evry election since 1979 2 date. Let's wait n see hw ur analysis plays out

maestroferddi:
BENUE STATE: PDP 65% APC 35%

KOGI STATE: PDP 58% APC 42%

KWARA STATE: APC 67% PDP 34%

NASARAWA STATE: PDP 51% APC 49%

NIGER STATE: PDP 52% APC 48%

PLATEAU STATE: PDP 72% APC 28%

Predictions based on political structures on ground and not media propaganda, rally turnouts and sentiments.

This got me laughing hard. GEJ was disgraced in that same state in 2011 when even the deaf support him unlike now where people see him as badluck.

Good analysis for the OP....

omoalaro:


I have nothing absolutely to assess Ajibola's competence. I was waiting for PDP to put forward Belgore or Prof Oba but they failed.
As it stands, I have no governorship candidate to vote for in kwara.
i will only vote for Buhari in the presidential election. i'm not a party man, i only vote for competence regardless of your party.

Ajibola has no good record. He spent his years in the senate saying just "aye" and "nay"

Kingspin:
You mean they hate GEJ, not because he is not doing a whole lot simply, that he is a minority from the south and a Christian. More reason Nigeria will never be at peace or one Nigeria..

Don't sell that kind of good to the minorities it has few buyers now.

Bruteforce1o1:


This got me laughing hard. GEJ was disgraced in that same state in 2011 when even the deaf support him unlike now where people see him as badluck.

You must be a neophyte in this game.

In 2011, Babangida Aliyu delivered Niger to CPC as a protest against Jonathan's emergence over northern interests.

This time around Muazu is in Jonathan's camp. Infact he is among those seriously eyeing the Presidency in 2019. A Buhari presidency now divides opinion among northern elites. The next line of leaders in the north are waiting for 2019 when the north would have unfettered access to the presidency.

Let's we forget, there is a certain former president living at the Hilltop Mansion Minna.

Buhari's seeming popularity is to some extent a creation of the Western propaganda. A lot of influential northerners are sceptical of Tinubu's design as per the Buhari project.


The election results on February 14 will jolt many.

[s]

maestroferddi:
You must be a neophyte in this game.

In 2011, Babangida Aliyu delivered Niger to CPC as a protest against Jonathan's emergence over northern interests.

This time around Muazu is in Jonathan's camp. Infact he is among those seriously eyeing the Presidency in 2019. A Buhari presidency now divides opinion among northern elites. The next line of leaders in the north are waiting for 2019 when the north would have unfettered access to the presidency.

Let's we forget, there is a certain former president living at the Hilltop Mansion Minna.

Buhari's seeming popularity is to some extent a creation of the Western propaganda. A lot of influential northerners are sceptical of Tinubu's design as per the Buhari project.


The election results on February 14 will jolt many.

[/s]

Trash. I love how you always tell us that your SE is 100% for GEJ but other zone must be shared or given to GEJ. You can keep deceiving yourself, i wont argue with you cos your mind is made up already. Feb 14 is near, we talk by then....

enigmaotr:
Ajibola has no good record. He spent his years in the senate saying just "aye" and "nay"

go and check for ajibola records sir,by the way show me the acheivement of ahmed and bukola in the last four years.am waiting