http://www.newspunch.org/foreign-analytic-firm-predicts-victory-for-buhari-see-details/

DaMina Advisors, a leading provider of risk advisory services for emerging markets registered in five countries, with a focus on Africa, has predicted a victory for the APC presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, in the 14 February 2015 presidential elections.

Using its VERITAS Frontier Markets Electoral Forecast Statistical Model, the firm predicted a close election, with an eventual victory for Buhari by 700,000 votes, with both candidates meeting the second constitutional requirement of getting at least 25% of the vote in 24 of the 36 states of the Federation.

The extent of voting possible in the North East is expected to play a key role in the outcome of the poll, with the firm citing a run-off as a possibility.

According to the report, Buhari’s victory will likely see him snatching the commercial capital, Lagos, away from the opposition as well as racking up double digit gains in the Muslim north and single digit gains in the south western ethnic Yoruba states.

“Jonathan is set to maintain his very high margins in the oil producing Niger Delta south-south region, his home region, as well as strong margins in the eastern pan-ethnic Igbo states. Jonathan will likely also hang on to some religiously mixed middle-belt northern states adjoining the capital, Abuja. However abandoned by his political godfather, influential former President Olusegun Obasanjo, and beset by an active Boko Haram insurgency in the north eastern parts of the country that has sapped his middle class and female support even in many southern Christian states, Jonathan is poised to likely receive a cold Valentine’s Day gift of ejection from the presidential palace at Aso Rock in Abuja. Jonathan’s defeat, if it happens, will be unprecedented in Nigeria’s political history.

“A Buhari win on the 14th followed by a strong showing by the opposition All
Progressives Congress (APC) party at the 28th February governorship races will see Nigeria edge closer and closer to a more normal bifurcated two-party system with the APC on the center-left and the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) on the center-right.

“While the complex and tortured histories of both parties is too long to recount here, essentially while the APC looks to the build a strong decentralized managed capitalist social democratic state, with a slight leftward PanAfrican tilt towards China-Russia; the PDP looks to continue its generally centralized, pro-Western neoliberal free market capitalist democratic state, with a more insular Pan Nigerian nationalist neo-colonial tilt.”

Full report here. Pdf download
http://cdn.pmnewsnigeria.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/DaMina-2015-NIGERIA-ELECTIONS-OUTLOOK.pdf

**laughing in swahili**

yeah, they are right

Change2015:
http://www.newspunch.org/foreign-analytic-firm-predicts-victory-for-buhari-see-details/

DaMina Advisors, a leading provider of risk advisory services for emerging markets registered in five countries, with a focus on Africa, has predicted a victory for the APC presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, in the 14 February 2015 presidential elections.

Using its VERITAS Frontier Markets Electoral Forecast Statistical Model, the firm predicted a close election, with an eventual victory for Buhari by 700,000 votes, with both candidates meeting the second constitutional requirement of getting at least 25% of the vote in 24 of the 36 states of the Federation.

The extent of voting possible in the North East is expected to play a key role in the outcome of the poll, with the firm citing a run-off as a possibility.

According to the report, Buhari’s victory will likely see him snatching the commercial capital, Lagos, away from the opposition as well as racking up double digit gains in the Muslim north and single digit gains in the south western ethnic Yoruba states.

“Jonathan is set to maintain his very high margins in the oil producing Niger Delta south-south region, his home region, as well as strong margins in the eastern pan-ethnic Igbo states. Jonathan will likely also hang on to some religiously mixed middle-belt northern states adjoining the capital, Abuja. However abandoned by his political godfather, influential former President Olusegun Obasanjo, and beset by an active Boko Haram insurgency in the north eastern parts of the country that has sapped his middle class and female support even in many southern Christian states, Jonathan is poised to likely receive a cold Valentine’s Day gift of ejection from the presidential palace at Aso Rock in Abuja. Jonathan’s defeat, if it happens, will be unprecedented in Nigeria’s political history.

“A Buhari win on the 14th followed by a strong showing by the opposition All
Progressives Congress (APC) party at the 28th February governorship races will see Nigeria edge closer and closer to a more normal bifurcated two-party system with the APC on the center-left and the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) on the center-right.

“While the complex and tortured histories of both parties is too long to recount here, essentially while the APC looks to the build a strong decentralized managed capitalist social democratic state, with a slight leftward PanAfrican tilt towards China-Russia; the PDP looks to continue its generally centralized, pro-Western neoliberal free market capitalist democratic state, with a more insular Pan Nigerian nationalist neo-colonial tilt.”

Interesting research...

the only bit I don't like is the fact that the Margin will be slim...

the margin will definitely be a landslide for APC!!

Sai Buhari!! Change Has Come!

SAI BABA FOR ASO ROCK
Stop predicting. Its gone beyond that. Na reality now, and its going to be a landslide.

SAI BUHARI/OSINBAJO

On election day, the results I will be keen to see are those of the SW and NC. Once those results come in, and Buhari still leads, I will start preparing for a Buhari 8 years.

With pdp rigging the margin will b slim but without rigging GEJ Will lose in all the states of nigeria.

I certainly hope and believe the margin of victory will be significant. Then a message will be really sent to all politicians, that the people won't tolerate their bs any longer.

#change
#GMB
#APC

olapluto:
On election day, the results I will be keen to see are those of the SW and NC. Once those results come in, and Buhari still leads, I will start preparing for a Buhari 8 years.

north central is pdp

One of the best so far.
Just saw the projectionss for lagos,edo ,Kaduna and rivers and realised this was a proper,scientifically carried out body of work.
The authors were conservative and took a lot of factors into play.
However, I think the margin of victory for buhari would be more than 700,000.D victory will be clearer than this because the authors projected same margins and turnout for GEJ as it was in 2011, in the ss and se, which am sure would not be the case this time.They also wrongly gave kwara to PDP,a state where I see PDP receiving a thrashing.

Sai dreams....
Its allowed anyways

tHIS SEEMS LARGELY OBJECTIVE AND REALISTIC.

Dreamers! damage control for APC. Greedy men (Amaechi & Tiifnubu) wants to take aadvantage of the blind votes Buhari pulls from the North to get to Aso Rock but they don't know that Buhari did not finish sec. Sch. Even we go by that result, he failed maths and so is not supposed to be in the military ab initio. This is the result of greed and excessive quest for power.

This is what we know, but that margin should increase biko!
Now, more interesting is the fact that APC is tilting towards a robust developing economy- China. No wonder my Chinese friend told me that Nigeria will soon have someone like Chairman Mao Ze Dong
APC, my respects!!!!

KwoiZabo:
Dreamers! damage control for APC. Greedy men (Amaechi & Tiifnubu) wants to take aadvantage of the blind votes Buhari pulls from the North to get to Aso Rock but they don't know that Buhari did not finish sec. Sch. Even we go by that result, he failed maths and so is not supposed to be in the military ab initio. This is the result of greed and excessive quest for power.

NIGGAH SOUND PAINED

Jonathan should stop wasting the $20 billion he stole. We are coming....
We are going to take the money back.

It is apparent this model is Buhari-bent otherwise it's inconcievable to even tinker with the dream that Ndi-Imo will not vote for GEJ. To the extent that Buhari may gather over half a million votes there and even win. The model failed woefully to accurately predict the known unknowns drawing from the traditional ethno-regional sentiments in Nigeria.

I can definitely say the Fayose advert has turned many people against the pdp. It was too brazen and desperate, and so far the pdp has shown an inability to dominate the news headlines for almost any reason, good or bad. An incompetent president is one who cannot recognise the damage bad friends and poor advisers do to his cause. We will benefit from the cumulative missteps of the pdp.

#change
#GMB
#APC