Excerpts and MY PERSONAL analysis on INEC's nearly 43million eligible voters for the 2015 polls. It is premised on the six geo-political zones and north-south fault-lines:

SS = 6,214,977 Represents 14.69%

SE = 4,378,329 Represents 10.35%

SW = 6,403,350 Represents 15.13%

NC = 5,859,562 Represents 13.85%

NE = 6,678,841 Represents 15.78%

NW = 12,784,880 Represents 30.21%

With southern Nigeria eligible voting population accounting for 40.16% and northern Nigeria voting population having the major chunk of 59.84%.

On paper could beat your chest and say GMB has won already and quickly write President GEJ off. I do not blame! But every story has two good sides.

If only voting is on north-south line, then GMB will be President come February 15, but in Nigerian elections as seen recently from 2011, the centre of the north and parts of its eastern elements no longer holds again; that is what President GEJ is banking on to win the February 15 polls.

APC STATES(14) Average Collection = 56.33%

PDP STATES(21) Average Collection = 69.94%

APGA STATE(1) Average Collection = 62.25%

FCT ABUJA Average Collection = 52.18%

Going by these averages, the PDP's President GEJ should be coasting to victory come Feb 15, the APC on-groundness in some of those PDP states( especially northern Nigeria), makes the 69.94% of the PDP highly fallible and unreliable.

Also the PDP's commanding presence in the majority of the APC's states in the south means the 56.33% is a very dangerous ground for APC to stand on.
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Please read full INEC release below for state by state analysis.
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The Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC) yesterday declared that
42,779,339 Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs)
have been distributed so far out of the
68million cards billed to be distributed to
eligible voters.

It said that while 26million
PVCs are yet to be collected, the percentage
of collected PVCs is now 62.15 per cent.
Also, the commission declared that 145,000
smart cards have been distributed so far.

The commission had on January 7 disclosed
that 38million cards had been distributed,
remaining a total of 15million. It further
disclosed that the number of polling units is
119, 973.

According to the commission,

Abia State has distributed 1,020,997 (73%);

Adamawa: 1,239,820 (79%);
Akwa Ibom:1,328,714 (79.05%);
Anambra: 1,222, 002 (62.25%);
Bauchi: 1,745,441 (84.97%);
Bayelsa: 386,125 (63.26%);

Benue:1,132,187 (56.18%);
Borno: 999, 470 (56.18%).
Cross River distributed 776,977 (66.09%);
Delta: 1,422,595 (62.52%);
Ebonyi: 714,351 (66.50%);
Edo: 1,046,960 (58.63%);
Ekiti: 492, 869 (67.33%);

Enugu:738,933 (51.70%);
FCT: 459,913 (52.18%);
Gombe: 873,698 (78.0%);
Imo: 682,046 (37.24%).
Jigawa: 1,460,620 (79.76%);
Kaduna: 2,976,628 (87.36%);

Kano: 2, 612,400 (52.50%);
Katsina:2,245,303 (79.40%);
Kebbi: 1,232,357 (83.8%);
Kogi: 773,197 (57.24%);
Kwara: 711,920 (62.33%).
Lagos: 2,267,039 (38.39%);

Nasarawa: 850,619 (66.45%);
Niger: 1,250,379 (62.07%);
Ogun: 666,752 (36.4%);
Ondo: 824,715 (54.09%)
Osun: 995,562 (70.75%);
Oyo: 1,156,593 (47.88%);

Plateau: 1,141,260 (57.01%);
Rivers: 1,253,606 (49.40%);
Sokoto:1,211,717 (75.17%);
Taraba: 1,079,383 (80.51%);
Yobe: 740,336 (67.31%);
Zamfara: 1,045,855 (69.92%).

Meanwhile, INEC and the National Union Of Road
Transport Workers (NURTW) have signed a
Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on
election logistics.
.
www.scannewsnigeria.com/news/weve-distributed-43m-pvcs-inec/

Even Kaduna has higher eligible voters than ALMIGHTY LAGOS with a voting populatioin of more than 6million.

I dey laff ooooo

NW alone dwarfs SW and SS put together but one plus one don't always add up in elections.

Check out the APARTHY in PVC collection in SS, SE and SW; yet they are the most educated in the country, especially Lagos state and GEJ's home state, Bayelsa. Too poor!

Certain APC stronghold states (like Lagos, Imo, Rivers, Ogun) record low collection.

However, looking at the analysis of the Zonal numbers, my bet is still on #TeamGMB2015.

SW collection is too poor, what could be wrong?

ogun 36% Lagos 38% oyo 48% ondo 54% ekiti 67% osun 71%.


The governors of these three states ought to be bothered as to why the PVC collection in their states is no where close to the national average of 62%.

Nothern politicians are the people hijack those pvc for your info!

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fun4:
Even Kaduna has higher eligible voters than ALMIGHTY LAGOS with a voting populatioin of more than 6million.

collection ratio not voters
Lagos has about 6 million voters

This is interesting

More PVC's will be distributed before the elections.

Funny enough, the regions where we feel we are 'quite enlightened' is where collection has been very low - SW, SE, SS.
All we do is to come online and shout GEJ or GMB while most of us have no PVC.

I can't imagine the sadness of pdp members for seeing this.

they will be like...

shoki. APC ALL THE WAY

And yet some people will shout that the Norths polulation is over rated

Truth is that the SS, SE and SS are unhappy with the current government. many of those who have refused to collect will NOT vote for PDP again as the "O had no shoes" story has paled.

So they aren't voting.

I wish they'd collect though, and trounce PDP with their votes

where in Asaba do pple collect theirs?

#ChangeMustCome #SaiBuhari #Febuhari14

stinggy:
Funny enough, the regions where we feel we are 'quite enlightened' is where collection has been very low - SW, SE, SS.
All we do is to come online and shout GEJ or GMB while most of us have no PVC.

So true...

Kaduna for sure is for PDP

Vote wisely! Vote with sense! Vote Buhari!

chimkaire:
So true...

I know you don't have it too

stinggy:


I know you don't have it too

Yano berra

There's one trick APC politicians over here in the north use; during campaigns they always tell their people "go and get your PVC" but I hardly hear PDP politicians say this.. Northern followers are usually very loyal to their leaders so that explains why more people have picked up their PVCs in the north. Besides, this is the actual number of people who will vote on the election day. INEC has don well by introducing this permanent voters' card unlike before when figures are manipulated by the ruling party, this will improve the credibility of the election.

Nice analysis, let's see if the turnout is also impressive.

Bevista:
Certain APC stronghold states (like Lagos, Imo, Rivers, Ogun) record low collection.

However, looking at the analysis of the Zonal numbers, my bet is still on #TeamGMB2015.

Which Rivers and Imo?? LoL check again

chimkaire:
Yano berra

So go collect this thing fa

stinggy:


So go collect this thing fa

Abia

fun4:
Even Kaduna has higher eligible voters than ALMIGHTY LAGOS with a voting populatioin of more than 6million.

Lagos state traditionally has very low voters turnout. So no surprises there

So many people won't go out to vote!

omoalaro:
More PVC's will be distributed before the elections.

I doubt if it will be significant enough