Obiagelli:


Both items, which constitute
the recurrent expenditure, represent 57 per cent of the total
budget while capital accounts for the remaining 43 per cent.
www.thenigeriabusiness.com/eco5.html

Okay i confused numbers obj got us to 43% capital expenditure.

The number didn't add up! the capital expenditure of 2007 budget was 34% not 43 as wrongly stated in the article!

Check the numbers

Total budget = N 2.3 trillion

Capital expenditure = N 781 billion

When you do the calculation, you are getting approximately 34%

I repeat, OBJ never did a capital expenditure of 40% +

http://www.slideshare.net/statisense/emperical-analysis-of-nigeria-budget

Obiagelli:
I came across this thread " Is President Goodluck Jonathan Really Bad" and i thought to myself, if these are the achievements of President Jonathan then i must have over rated him even in my displeasure.

Budget breakdown

2010 = N4.07 trillion naira


2011 = N4.22 trillion naira


2012 = N4.74 trillion naira


2013 = N4.92 trillion naira


2014 = N4.6 Trillion naira


Total = N22.5 trillion naira,

That's about $135billion dollars.

So i ask are these achievements worth $135 billion dollars?

A responsible government @ 50 % capital expenditure would have spent $70 billion dollars on infrastructure, we could have achieved 10,000 megawatts for less than $20 billion (using the Chinese example)

We would still have balance to build several refineries @ $10 ( Dangote refinery costs $2 billion)

We could have high speed rail around the country for less than $20 billion

We could have built world class Universities for less than $500 million dollars each.

Nigeria deserves better.

OP, you are not been fair to Jonathan's govt at all. Can you educate Nairalanders the true pictures of the yearly budgets using the following parameters;

1. Authentic ratio of CAPEX to Recurrent Exp.
2. Percentage of Security Expenditure to Total Expenditure.
You have mischievously laid emphasy on the increasing size of annual budgets without telling Nigerians the accompanying increamental expenditure most especially the skyrocketting costs of fighting Boko haram insurgency and that's extremely poor of you. As said in my rejoinder to your earlier post on GEJ administration's budgets, the best way to measure any govt's performance is to dissect its performance when out of comfort zone. Despite having a sizeable portion of its budgets been expended on security, Jonathan has not only whethered the storm, he has equally ensured moderate and appreciable positive impacts in all facets of the Nigerian economy. What else do you expect from an efficient and effective administration?

Mykevp2p:


Your facts are wrong on all counts and I really wonder where you get your so called facts from

1. Budgets are based on projected revenue, not actual revenue. In the case of Nigeria, it is usually based on project crude production and crude price. For this reason, it is difficult for any government to attain 100% budget performance because of shortfalls in revenue.

2. As rightly pointed out, the capital expenditure is not 50% so I wonder where you get your numbers of 10,000 MW and refineries from.

3. I wonder where you got 47% capital expenditure during OBJ regime from.

in 2004 the capital expenditure was 19.54%

2005 it was 34.29%

in 2006 it was 28.7%

2007 was 34.48%

In recent times, only in 2010 have we done a budget with capital expenditure of 40.23%

In fact in 2004 during OBJ time, capital + recurrent expenditure was only 49.65% of the budget meaning that we spent a whooping 50.35% of the total budget on statutory transfer and debt services.

I really can't understand why most Nigerian now refer to OBJ as a saint and yardstick for measuring performance in government.

Check your facts

www.thenigeriabusiness.com/eco5.html

I never said obj was a saint, i only compared with recent times.


Edit
Ok fine, with capital benchmark at 40%

Obiagelli:


Check your facts

www.thenigeriabusiness.com/eco5.html

I never said obj was a saint, i only compared with recent times.

I have checked and it is still wrong, do the maths and come up with the answer. In fact the article itself is confusing. How can it say that the budget is made up of only capital and recurrent expenditure? in the budget, we have debt servicing and statutory transfers.. where did it get 53% for recurrent and 47% for capital?

Mykevp2p:


I have checked and it is still wrong, do the maths and come up with the answer. In fact the article itself is confusing. How can it say that the budget is made up of only capital and recurrent expenditure? in the budget, we have debt servicing and statutory transfers.. where did it get 53% for recurrent and 47% for capital?

How much were we owing in 2007? Anyways, lets put capital expenditure benchmark at 40%, we should have spent close to $60 billion on infrastructure

. Obiagelli, please when you get the right Budget figures and Capital expenditure ratios , call us to debate, debating on wrong
stats is a waste of time.

The last link you listed for OBJ last budget is 781 billion capital expenditure out of a 2.3 trillion budget,which
gives 34%, Please use official budget figures or at least do the math yourself.Is there any link to $30 billion
spent on Power under Jona or are those figures more fruits of a Fertile Imagination

Obiagelli:

How much were we owing in 2007? Anyways, lets put capital expenditure benchmark at 40%, we should have spent close to $60 billion on infrastructure

What is argument really? where did the question of how much we owe in 2007 arise from?

You should correct to error where you wrote that OBJ did a capital expenditure of 40% and above because he never did

Secondly, As i wrote before, budget is a projected revenue, so you cannot just write $60 billion without checking how much was actually made from those sources of revenue.

OLADD:


OP, you are not been fair to Jonathan's govt at all. Can you educate Nairalanders the true pictures of the yearly budgets using the following parameters;

1. Authentic ratio of CAPEX to Recurrent Exp.
2. Percentage of total budget to Security expenditure.
You have mischieviously laid emphasy on the increasing size of annual budgets without telling Nigerians the accompanying increamental expenditure most especially the skyrocketting costs of fighting Boko haram insurgency and that's extremely poor of you. As said in my rejionder to your earlier post on GEJ administration's budgets, the best way to measure any govt's performance is to dissect its performance when out of comfort zone. Despite having a sizeable portion of its budgets been expended on security, Jonathan has not only whethered the storm, he has ensured moderate and appreciable positive impacts in all facets of the Nigerian economy. What else do you expect from an efficient and effective administration?

The government draws the budget, they determine the capital vs recurrent ratio, if thy got it to 40% capital in 2010 (as claimed by someone here) why are we sliding back again?


I knew the question of security is coming, why are our troops still complaining to the BBC about obsolete weapons after 4yrs of massive spending.

The essence of this thread is corruption and mismanagement.

Obj ain't a saint either. 40 : 60% capp/recu is still a shame.

donguutti:
. Obiagelli, please when you get the right Budget figures and Capital expenditure ratios , call us to debate, debating on wrong
stats is a waste of time.

The last link you listed for OBJ last budget is 781 billion capital expenditure out of a 2.3 trillion budget,which
gives 34%, Please use official budget figures or at least do the math yourself.Is there any link to $30 billion
spent on Power under Jona or are those figures more fruits of a Fertile Imagination

Well the thread isn't even about obj's figures anyway, that was a reply to post. Can we discuss beyond obj's numbers please.

Mykevp2p:


What is argument really? where did the question of how much we owe in 2007 arise from?

You should correct to error where you wrote that OBJ did a capital expenditure of 40% and above because he never did

Secondly, As i wrote before, budget is a projected revenue, so you cannot just write $60 billion without checking how much was actually made from those sources of revenue.

I will make that correction, we had an oil benchmark and the last time i checked we were supposed to be making savings after these budgets.

op your head dey there

Obiagelli:


The government draws the budget, they determine the capital vs recurrent ratio, if thy got it to 40% capital in 2010 (as claimed by someone here) why are we sliding back again?


I knew the question of security is coming, why are our troops still complaining to the BBC about obsolete weapons after 4yrs of massive spending.

The essence of this thread is corruption and mismanagement.

Obj ain't a saint either. 40 : 60% capp/recu is still a shame.

If 40% is your benchmark of prudence in budgeting, then that honor should go to GEJ not OBJ.

The highest OBJ did was 34% while GEJ did 40.2% in 2010.

Just like GEJ said recently, the issue of corruption mostly are based perception. There is a perception that Jonathan is corrupt while Buhari is not, if both spend the same amount of money, we will more likely to say that Jonathan inflated his amount. Just like the PDP and APC now, everything done by APC are right while all PDP policies, no matter how good the are, is termed corrupt.

I will give you one example.

Just yesterday, someone compared the price of APC train and that of another country, APC defence was you cannot compare because of demolition of house and price of land etc.

Yet, it was convenient for the same APC to compare the proposed Abuja runway with other countries to tell us that Jonathan is corrupt.

The main reason GEJ will lose this election is not really because of performance but bad publicity and not indirectly controlling the press.

Obiagelli:

I will make that correction, we had an oil benchmark and the last time i checked we were supposed to be making savings after these budgets.

And when those excess crude fund are used to shore up shortfall in revenue, you and APC cry blue murder!.

Now, let me tell you where the problem lies, hold your national assemble responsible. I remember Okonjo-Iweala proposing a lower crude benchmark for the crude oil so we can have more in the excess crude fund, it was the national assemble that always ask for increase.

Until we understand that we run a democracy made up of 3 arms, we will never get anything right. Every problem of this country is always blamed on the president

Obiagelli:


The government draws the budget, they determine the capital vs recurrent ratio, if thy got it to 40% capital in 2010 (as claimed by someone here) why are we sliding back again?


I knew the question of security is coming, why are our troops still complaining to the BBC about obsolete weapons after 4yrs of massive spending.

The essence of this thread is corruption and mismanagement.

Obj ain't a saint either. 40 : 60% capp/recu is still a shame.

1. Every budget is tailored towards the pressing needs of any economy and I am sure you are aware of that. Instead of abating you will agree that the increasing demands of our security situation necessitates a large chunk of the capital expenditure been reallocated to Security head. What this means in plain terms is that other expense heads(capital or recurrent) will have to bear the brunt.
2. Let's be sincere with ourselves, our inability to completely defeat Boko haram is never down to dearth of amunition but due to political interference by powers-that-be in the north and their gluttonous counterparts in the south who wants power by all means. That's the fact.

Mykevp2p:


And when those excess crude fund are used to shore up shortfall in revenue, you and APC cry blue murder!.

Now, let me tell you where the problem lies, hold your national assemble responsible. I remember Okonjo-Iweala proposing a lower crude benchmark for the crude oil so we can have more in the excess crude fund, it was the national assemble that always ask for increase.

Until we understand that we run a democracy made up of 3 arms, we will never get anything right. Every problem of this country is always blamed on the president

Are we still discussing 2010 - 2014?

A little search would reveal that FG wage bill increased from 900 billion to 1.8 trillion due do Minimum wage laws,
spending on defence increased from 213 Biilion under Obj over 900 Billion due to boko ,Totaling 1.6 trillion in
new expenditure to be catered for.Now if we did not have this extra Figures ($8 - 10 Billion) our reserves
would have Increased by almost $40 Billion under Jona

Oil benchmarks are based on Price and Production figures,Thus most of the Extra was used to makeup the
Production shortfalls

Obiagelli:

Are we still discussing 2010 - 2014?

If you cannot define the boundary of discuss, I'm afraid, I can't help you with that. You brought corruption, mismanagement, obsolete arms, oil benchmark and savings into the discussion, If I have derailed, kindly tell me where and I will make the corrections.

Mykevp2p:


If 40% is your benchmark of prudence in budgeting, then that honor should go to GEJ not OBJ.

The highest OBJ did was 34% while GEJ did 40.2% in 2010.

Just like GEJ said recently, the issue of corruption mostly are based perception. There is a perception that Jonathan is corrupt while Buhari is not, if both spend the same amount of money, we will more likely to say that Jonathan inflated his amount. Just like the PDP and APC now, everything done by APC are right while all PDP policies, no matter how good the are, is termed corrupt.

I will give you one example.

Just yesterday, someone compared the price of APC train and that of another country, APC defence was you cannot compare because of demolition of house and price of land etc.

Yet, it was convenient for the same APC to compare the proposed Abuja runway with other countries to tell us that Jonathan is corrupt.

The main reason GEJ will lose this election is not really because of performance but bad publicity and not indirectly controlling the press.

This again isn't about crediting obj, (let's forget obj), at 40% capital expenditure (if it was improved on) we ought to have achieved more. The achievements posted on the other thread is ridiculous for the amount spent.


As for the railway thread, the Lagos Blue rail is over the lagoon.

Mykevp2p:


If you cannot define the boundary of discuss, I'm afraid, I can't help you with that. You brought corruption, mismanagement, obsolete arms, oil benchmark and savings into the discussion, If I have derailed, kindly tell me where and I will make the corrections.

You spoke about depleting the excess crude account due to shortfall in revenue, i wanted to know which year you are discussing so we can check oil prices for that year and figure out why the shortfall.

Crude oil theft is another incompetence or direct stealing by the government.

Ngwakwe:


Don't change the subject by obfuscating facts.

Debate on the facts.

Lolz, really?

#change
#GMB
#APC

OLADD:


1. Every budget is tailored towards the pressing needs of any economy and I am sure you are aware of that. Instead of abating you will agree that the increasing demands of our security situation necessitates a large chunk of the capital expenditure been reallocated to Security head. What this means in plain terms is that other expense heads(capital or recurrent) will have to bear the brunt.
2. Let's be sincere with ourselves, our inability to completely defeat Boko haram is never down to dearth of amunition but due to political interference by powers-that-be in the north and thier glutonous counterparts in the south who wants power by all means. That's the fact.

1. We have spent on security but we can't see results.

2. I wouldn't speculate, i would rather listen to soldiers mutiny against their bosses. That does not speak some Northern leader influencing what not. Lets stick to facts we know.

Btw the government would have enemies but incompetence allow them thrive.

OLADD:


1. Every budget is tailored towards the pressing needs of any economy and I am sure you are aware of that. Instead of abating you will agree that the increasing demands of our security situation necessitates a large chunk of the capital expenditure been reallocated to Security head. What this means in plain terms is that other expense heads(capital or recurrent) will have to bear the brunt.
2. Let's be sincere with ourselves, our inability to completely defeat Boko haram is never down to dearth of amunition but due to political interference by powers-that-be in the north and thier glutonous counterparts in the south who wants power by all means. That's the fact.

Please provide evidence for your assertion in point 2.
You may also refer to this thread on the army
https://www.nairaland.com/2145542/nigerian-soldier-using-old-tanks

#change
#GMB
#APC

Obiagelli:


1. We have spent on security but we can't see results.

2. I wouldn't speculate, i would rather listen to soldiers mutiny against their bosses. That does not speak some Northern leader influencing what not. Lets stick to facts we know.

Btw the government would have enemies but incompetence allow them thrive.

Oby, let's speak on national issues as patriotic citizens before considering other interets. If our security operatives were not up and doing, maybe Nigeria would have been a goner. With these guys dying almost on daily basis, it's unfair to underplay their sacrifice and efforts.
Secondly, the facts are there to see; Boko haram was reinvigourated to undermine this govt and pave way for the return of power to a particular region of this country. The series of attacks were targeted at any potential breakthroughs and achievements of the sitting govt. It's so glaring.

Its amusing watching people split hairs over the performance (or lack thereof) of Messrs Jonathan and Obasanjo. They are two sides of the same bad coin. Sure, their governments made some progress on the economic front. But growth is not the same thing as development.

Taking all factors into consideration, both governments have failed Nigerians, full stop. And both governments run on the same party platform. Is there a pattern here?

One more thing: analysts have to get out of the habit of bandying government expenditure figures as evidence of performance. Projected expenditure is the first leg of the relay race. The outcomes arising from this expenditure is the second leg, and precious little scrutiny is actually devoted to those outcomes. It isn't enough to tell Nigerians that $1 billion was budgeted for 'security'. How much was spent and what was it spent on? Did Nigerians receive value for money?

OLADD:


Oby, let's speak on national issues as patriotic citizens before considering other interets. If our security operatives were not up and doing, maybe Nigeria would have been a goner. With these guys dying almost on daily basis, it's unfair to uderplay their sacrifice and efforts.
Secondly, the facts are there to see; Boko haram was reinvigourated to undermine this govt and pave way for the return of power to a particular region of this country. The series of attacks were targeted at any potential breakthroughs and achievements of the sitting govt. It's so glaring.

I pity and cry for these soldiers and how they seem to be sacrificial lambs. Btw since when did lying to ourselves about the poor state of our a morale become patriotic?

Can we stay away from this boko haram speculations, at least on this thread. Every government since 1960 has faced massive challenges during their tenure, they didn't go about looking for who to blame, the faced the situation head on.
Out of patriotism, please stop making excuses for the continued loss of lives in the north east.

VolvoS60:
Its amusing watching people split hairs over the performance (or lack thereof) of Messrs Jonathan and Obasanjo. They are two sides of the same bad coin. Sure, their governments made some progress on the economic front. But growth is not the same thing as development.

Taking all factors into consideration, both governments have failed Nigerians, full stop. And both governments run on the same party platform. Is there a pattern here?

Well said, i only mentioned obj because his government was in the same decade as gej's

VolvoS60:

One more thing: analysts have to get out of the habit of bandying government expenditure figures as evidence of performance. Projected expenditure is the first leg of the relay race. The outcomes arising from this expenditure is the second leg, and precious little scrutiny is actually devoted to those outcomes. It isn't enough to tell Nigerians that $1 billion was budgeted for 'security'. How much was spent and what was it spent on? Did Nigerians receive value for money?

RESULTS! RESULTS!! RESULTS!!! Thanks

Mykevp2p:


Your facts are wrong on all counts and I really wonder where you get your so called facts from

in 2004 the capital expenditure was 19.54%

2005 it was 34.29%

in 2006 it was 28.7%

2007 was 34.48%

In recent times, only in 2010 have we done a budget with capital expenditure of 40.23%

In fact in 2004 during OBJ time, capital + recurrent expenditure was only 49.65% of the budget meaning that we spent a whooping 50.35% of the total budget on statutory transfer and debt services.

I really can't understand why most Nigerian now refer to OBJ as a saint and yardstick for measuring performance in government.

APC are liars.
Their father is the devil:
The master liar!

Obiagelli:

Beyond your mental capacity? I understand bro. It wouldn't just happen you know, you have to keep working at it.

programmed to rant from Mon through Sun!...keep doing it ma'am

Obiagelli:


Thats why i based my analysis on 50% capital expenditure, like most sane governments do. I have been made to understand that we were even at 40% capital expenditure in 2010.

good one, now compare with previous administrations.

Bog12:

3] Goodluck dualized federal roads (about 25,000km) which Obasanjo and past Govts abandoned and you say Goodluck is bad.

This is a bloody lie from the pit of hell. 25000km represents over 80% of the federal roads in Nigeria. It is shameful that Jonathan supporters also include 'wishlist' projects as part of his achievements and these wishlist projects actually make up 90% of the so called roads which Jonathan's administration fixed. Roads which have been undergoing dualisation works for the past 10 years, and which has still not been completed is included as an achievement of GEJ. What nonsense!... I challenge Jonathanians to mention 1 ( just 1) federal road whose dualisation or reconstruction was INITIATED and COMPLETED in the last 5 years under GEJ.

5] Goodluck has been conducting free and fair elections whereas the ones conducted under Obasanjo are Shameful and national disgrace yet you say Goodluck is bad.

Oh yes!.. Free and fair elections indeed. Just like the one we just heard the secret recordings of the minister of defense blackmailing and bribing and military General to disenfranchise voters in Ekiti?... Free and fair like the governor's forum election where the government insulted the intelligence and sensibilities of Nigerians by telling us 16 was greater than 19?
2011 elections might have appeared free and fair because for the first time in Nigeria's history, the presidentiall candidate oof the ruling party enjoyed massive goodwill from the people. There was basically no need to rig the 2011 elections. THe present macabre dance of the 2015 elections will truly expose the true colours of GEJ.

6] Goodluck established 12 new universities, 9 in the North to improve learning and knowledge and increase the Jambites admission rate, yet you say that Goodluck is bad.

I thank God you used the word 'established' and not 'built.' Because it is clear most of the so called new universities were just change of names; they simply change the name of an already existing polytechnic or college of education and call it "University of ....." and voila!! a new university is born. Commendable though!

8] Goodluck has been building dams and improving the country's power from 2500mW to 6,000MW - And successfully privatized the sector which many analyst believed is the best way to go and you joined them say that Goodluck is bad.

Which dams please?.. As at 1999, we always knew the power generation installed capacity was about 4000MW and statements from the power minister reveal we still do not have up to 5000mw. So I wonder where your figures come from, I wonder why the figures of the power ministry and the figures from the GEJ campaign office are conflicting.

10] 2013 and 2014 was the Christmas in Nigeria, where Nigerian did not sleep in filling stations for 3 to 4 days to get Petrol or 100s of people being roasted alive in attempts to get fuel in petrol stations, wickedly, you joined them to say that our God given President is not performing.

No fuel queues in Christmas since 2011, very commendable but the question any smart person should ask is, "at what cost?"
In 2007, OBJ paid N188bn as fuel subsidies, we had fuel queues at christmas.
In 2011, GEJ paid N2.13Trillion as fuel subsidies and there were no fuel queues. As commendable as it was for there to be no quest, it is only an irredeemable dolt or a simply ignorant person that would celebrate this financial indiscretion as an achievement.

11] Airports are wearing world class looks and every zone have International airport and you say Goodluck is bad.

At what cost?... Even with the billions spent on refurbishing the airports, we still had leaking roofs at the international airport arrival lounge. I wouldn't want to even mention the shameful flooding at the Enugu airport on first rains last year. I suppose APC would also be blamed for bribing God to send down wicked rains.

12] This administration has employed more people in their 5years in office than any other in the history of Nigeria [Via Agric, Energy sector,16 New Car Companies, 12 New Universities, 3,826 primary Health care Centers, Teaching Hospitals] SURE-P, YOUWIN and you say Goodluck is bad. Now do you think that General Muhammadu Buhari will perform magic, which he could not do when he was in his 40s, if you vote him?

.. You seriously think this administration employed more people than OBJ's administration even though statistics from the NBS say differently?... Is this wishful thinking or just a careless ramble to deceive the gullible?... Do you have a slight idea the number of people who got employed by the boom in the banking industry, stock market and the telecommunications industry under OBJ?... Are you even aware the boom in the telecommunications industry is the singular factor which made Nigeria overtake SA as the largest economy in Africa?

What else do they want from President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan?

What we want from Jonathan is simple. He should show a little concern about the prevalent and unprecedented rate of corruption. The funds stolen fron NIgeria through corruption in the 5 years of Jonathan (because of his weakness to caution his cronies) is more than what was stolen from the country from 1979 till 2010. All we want is for him to show some concern about this cankerworm that has grown into an anaconda under his nose, not neessarily to eliminate it (cos that is not possible), but to at least just show concern and make efforts to 'reduce' it. All his attempts to develop the country without any effort to check corruption is just like attemping to fetch water with a basket. That is why even though we have a growing economy, we also have growing poverty, unemployment and depleting reserves, devalued Naira and astronomically increasing debts. The only true evidence of our growing economy is the almost 1000% increase in number of private jet owners, so sad!