Nigeria has been ruled by the same political elite since military rule ended in 1999. The current government of Goodluck Jonathan has faced mounting criticism over its record on corruption and security, with billions of dollars of oil revenue unaccounted for and an Islamist insurgency raging in the northeast. More recently, as crude prices drop and the currency depreciates, its economic management has also been called into question.
For the first time, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is facing a major challenge from a cohesive opposition party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), which was formed in 2013. The PDP has lost its parliamentary majority as a result of a wave of defections over the past 12 months. State governors have also decamped, leaving the ruling party in control of 23 of the country’s 37 states.
Despite declining momentum, its campaign is centred on claims that Nigeria is on the right path and this should not be derailed by a shift in leadership. Has it brought, as its motto states, “justice, unity and progress” to Africa’s biggest economy?
In this – the first of two reports ahead of a presidential vote on 28 March – Africa Check investigates the truth behind some of the party’s electoral claims.
Promises
The claim: “I have fulfilled all my promises.”
Our verdict: This claim, which Punch newspaper reported Jonathan as saying at a campaign rally, is false.
The president was allegedly referring to the promises made in his 2011 inauguration speech, which ranged from tackling corruption and maintaining security to building a stronger fiscal framework.
For the purposes of this report, Africa Check cannot investigate each one. However, Jonathan’s failure to keep just one of those promises disproves his claim to have honoured each. We looked into his vow that “[We] will avoid… boom and bust cycles, and mitigate our exposure to oil price volatility”.
Since June, oil prices have plummeted as low as $50 per barrel, placing huge strain on an economy that is reliant on the commodity for the majority of its export earnings and government revenue. The government has had to recalculate its budget, and the country’s central bank has been forced to depreciate the currency.
There is little indication that Nigeria’s rulers have built better measures to cushion against such shocks. The Excess Crude Account (ECA), a rainy-day savings pot which pre-dates Jonathan’s rule, has been depleted to less than $3-billion. There was $40-billion in the account in 2007. It has been at the centre of several corruption scandals. The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation recently promised to remit a missing $1.48-billion, following an audit catalysed by allegations made last year by the central bank governor Lamido Sanusi. Jonathan sacked him after he argued that as much as $20-billion was missing from oil coffers.
A sovereign wealth fund, designed to save and invest oil revenues, has been hamstrung by politicians and failed to grow beyond $1-billion.
Jobs and manufacturing
The claim: “Leading vehicle manufacturers such as Nissan, Hyundai, and Kia, have set up factories in Nigeria and are employing thousands of our people.”
Our verdict: It is true that factories have been established, but Africa Check was unable to verify if “thousands” of jobs have been created.
This claim refers to an automotive policy launched in 2013, which sought to discourage the importation of completed cars. The policy forms one component of a five-year plan to boost manufacturing’s share of GDP from 4% to 10% by 2017.
The National Automotive Council website has an undated list of the 23 new car assembly plants it says the new policy has helped kick-start. Going by the list, only Hyundai Motors and Basco Nigeria Limited have started assembly. The rest are still building their factories.
But local press has also reported that Nissan and Kia have produced cars in the country. Africa Check contacted Nissan to find out if their factory is running full-time, but did not receive a response.
Kia’s response suggests the claim is somewhat misleading. It points out that its factory is not an independent operation. A spokesperson for the company clarified that “we do not have a wholly-owned factory in Nigeria”, adding that it operates partial assembly with a local partner to avoid punitive taxation. He said the company is not employing anyone directly in the country.
The National Automotive Council did not respond to a request for comment on the recent status of those factories, as well as employment figures. It is therefore not possible to verify the claim that “thousands” of jobs have been created.
Food
The claim: “In the past three years… food import cost drop [ped] from N1.1-trillion to N635-billion and three million farming jobs [were] created.”
Our verdict: There are conflicting figures as to how much Nigeria spends annually on importing food. But evidence suggests the food import bill is rising at present, making the claim misleading. We could find no evidence to support the assertions on job creation.
World Bank data of Nigeria’s food imports – expressed as a percentage of merchandise imports – shows a steady decline from 31% in 2011 to 18% in 2013 (which is still higher than the 10% recorded in 2010).
However, in the last year there has been significant pressure on the import bill. The Central Bank in September 2014 highlighted “low agricultural output due to insecurity in the northeast” and expressed concern that the Boko Haram insurgency “was forcing a switching from domestic to imported food to meet domestic shortfall with huge impact on external reserves”.
Rice imports are said to have reduced over the past three years, because of increased local production. However the United States Department of Agriculture suggests that the claims of a significant increase in domestic production (and a consequent decrease in import spending) might be exaggerated. It notes that rice imports have been increasing again, after dropping by 200,000 tonnes between 2011/12 and 2012/13.
John Litwack of the World Bank adds that “due to higher tariffs and levies in recent years, more food is smuggled into the country and not recorded”.
Africa Check could not find data to support the claim that three million farming jobs have been created in three years. It sounds implausible. While Nigerian job statistics are highly unreliable, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) suggest that 2.48-million jobs were created between July 2012 and June 2014. At an average of 1.24-million jobs a year – spread across all sectors of the economy – it is unlikely that agriculture alone can account for an average of one million jobs per annum.
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Source: premiumtimes

Ameachi, bukola saraki n the rest were part of the PDP members that made those promises 16 years ago . GEJ till 2019!!!

PDP 16 years rule is enough,let us try APC at the centre.Let Nigerians be d judge.

Allowing one party monopoly is dangerous.

Change is the solution.