By Dimitra DeFotis

There is a 60% probability that Nigeria opposition leader Muhamadu Buhari could beat President Goodluck Jonathan in this month’s election, according to Eurasia Group.

The Global X MSCI Nigeria ETF (NGE), up 1.6% today, has tumbled 14% year to date and is down nearly 36% over the past 12 months. The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO), up 0.5% today, is down nearly a point this year, and up 3.2% over the past year.

Africa Practice head and Analyst Philippe de Pontet writes today that while Jonathan was a favorite in the March 28 election, representing a victory for the country’s Christian south, the electoral map is tilting to Buhari in swing regions in the southwest and middle of the country. Buhari would be a technocrat, and investors could expect business-oriented policies, de Pontet writes, but Eurasia Group remains neutral on Nigeria for the long term, given downside risks to oil production and challenges to policy implementation. He adds:

Nigeria’s Peoples Democratic Party won the south in 2011 elections.
“The election will still be difficult to call, but our expectation of a narrow Jonathan win was predicated on several factors that are losing some saliency late in the campaign.

Chief among them is the incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While this still helps Jonathan, its impact is blunted by the intensity of support for Buhari, lackluster grassroots campaigning by the PDP, and new anti-rigging measures by the electoral commission. New permanent voting cards and card readers will sharply reduce the level of rigging seen in 2011, when Jonathan beat Buhari in a landslide …

While we expected the electoral map to favor Jonathan, current trends suggest that the swing regions may side with Buhari, including the Christian-majority and heavily-populated southwest around Lagos. That could be the decisive demographic factor in the election …”

A local think tank, the Center for Public Policy Alternatives, gives Buhari a 58% to 32% lead in Lagos state, where Jonathan won the last election. Eurasia Group thinks Jonathan’s approval rating is below the 40% threshold under which incumbents have a hard time getting reelected.


“Despite some important military gains against [the Islamic terror group] Boko Haram in the northeast, and a partial exoneration of its oil revenue management in a recent PWC audit, [Jonathan's] Peoples Democratic Party is starting to look desperate. … [But] it is not clear … that Buhari has a strong economic policy orientation. This uncertainty is a chief risk for investors.”

Jonathan is likely to contest an unfavorable outcome, especially a close election, and that could mean protracted violence.


“The reason we aren’t upgrading Nigeria’s outlook to positive, however, rests in the potential for an oil disruption and the likely pushback to Buhari’s policy agenda in a highly polarized political climate. His victory is likely to unleash a resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta (Jonathan’s home region) that targets the oil sector. Former Delta militants have threatened to blow up oil pipelines, platforms, and personnel as in the past when they routinely took up to 500,000 barrels per day offline. There is likely some bluster in their threats …“



http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2015/03/12/nigeria-oppositions-buhari-could-win-disrupting-oil/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

It is obvious there is no way out of DEFEAT for jonaTAN and PDP.

His militants boys can go back to the creeks they will receive the BOKO HARAM TREATMENT, NO TIME FOR NONSENSE

The handwriting is on the wall GMB will cruise to victory, heard that the clueless one held meeting with OPC leaders in Lagos today, no amount of meetings, endorsements & lobbying will save GEJ from defeat come March 28.

The TSUNAMI called GMB have taken a global dimension now,CHANGE is here,no one can stop the MOVING TRAIN.

pendy79:
It is obvious there is no way out of DEFEAT for jonaTAN and PDP.

His militants boys can go back to the creeks they will receive the BOKO HARAM TREATMENT, NO TIME FOR NONSENSE

Yorubas are always the ones to make noise.
I hope your soldiers will be the ones to follow them to the creeks and give them the boko haram treatmemt.

alaoeri:
The handwriting is on the wall GMB will cruise to victory, heard that the clueless one held meeting with OPC leaders in Lagos today, no amount of meetings, endorsements & lobbying will save GEJ from defeat come March 28.

Since the idea of using soldiers to disrupt the conduct of a free and fair election have been challenged since the audio by Capt. Koli, they have decided to use OPC to terrorize the populace under protective cover of the FG.

Didn't Omisore freely use Masked and fully cloaked unknown people during the Osun Election last year to put fear and terror in the mind of the electorates

They really doubt the desperation and eagerness of the PEOPLE to kick out this INEPT AND CORRUPT GOVERNMENT.

He can give Gani Adams and Fasheun all the billions in the treasury but how he will win any state in the SW is what I want to see.

The Yorubas he called RASCALS are now his BELOVED KINGMAKERS

You mean despite Jonathan kneeling all over the country like a cripple, Blending into Ogboni Confra, Running from one oba to another like an abobaku

He is still sure to return to Otuoke

I dey laugh

Jonadumb, Nigerians are tired of your cluelessness Straight to Otuoke

Sai Buhari

Nothing can stop the total defeat of PDP In the coming election.

raumdeuter:
You mean despite Jonathan kneeling all over the country like a cripple, Blending into Ogboni Confra, Running from one oba to another like an abobaku

He is still sure to return to Otuoke

I dey laugh

Jonadumb, Nigerians are tired of your cluelessness Straight to Otuoke

Sai Buhari

He got the right advise from the AWUJALE of IJEBU LAND, if he has been deceived and scammed by contractor OBAs like the OONI of IFE and others, OBA SIKIRU ADETONA wont call WHITE, BLACK to soothe his ego.

I have not seen the OONI on a campaign train in IFE campaigning for him after collecting his share of the cake

pendy79:


He got the right advise from the AWUJALE of IJEBU LAND, if he has been deceived and scammed by contractor OBAs like the OONI of IFE and others, OBA SIKIRU ADETONA wont call WHITE, BLACK to soothe his ego.

I have not seen the OONI on a campaign train in IFE campaigning for him after collecting his share of the cake

Its so obvious Jonadumb is desperate and a desperate man is a potential scam victim.

Many in their mind know he is a failure but see Jonathan as a mumu willing to shell out cash.

People who have no electoral value and have no business with politics like Ooni, Fasheun, Gani Adams, Afenifere, Fani Kayode etc have been lying to him that he can win if he brings the right amount

Like Lagbaja said A o merin joba


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5mWurqoCHY

To think some people are still in the country saying Gej will win a free and fear election battles me. Even the outside world know he is loosing the election

Jonathan dug his grave






When he tried using the religious card to win favour which he himself his not a true Christian

ijustdey:
Jonathan dug his grave






When he tried using the religious card to win favour which he himself his not a true Christian

His Performance is his undoing. You can't be on a seat for 5years plus perform abysmally poor and then tell the populace you "VOW TO DO MORE"

more of what exactly? the corruption, the insecurity, the lies, the insensitivity to the plights of the common man on the streets and blatant nepotism and ethnic agenda he brought into our Nationhood with some Ijaw warlords and politicians assuming they are the best breed in the land and are above the law.

Accountability is here, Let's mark his scripts if he PASS

Omo na Otuoke sure pass

Demmzy15:
Omo na Otuoke sure pass

According to DINO MELAYE na by road he go waka.

JonaTAN is finished

pendy79:


According to DINO MELAYE na by road he go waka.

Otuoke second hand trains no dey?

[size=14pt]All these Lagos based foreign journalists sample Opinions from brainwashed Lagosians combined with pro-APC media and propaganda.

Lagos is not Nigeria [/size]

Demmzy15:

Otuoke second hand trains no dey?

For where? Person wey no fit provide potable water or electricity to his own immediate community.

The guy represents uselessness of the highest order.

pendy79:


For where? Person wey no fit provide potable water or electricity to his own immediate community.

The guy represents uselessness of the highest order.

Lmao I actually heard they booed him in Otuoke during a campaign!! Dis guy should just backdown!


*In Reverend Mbaka's voice* Goodluck Jonathan should honorably resign!

Nigeria needs a Leader that has qualities Jonathan does not possess.
APC is the doorway to a better Nigeria; Buhari holds the key.

Demmzy15:

Lmao I actually heard they booed him in Otuoke during a campaign!! Dis guy should just backdown!


*In Reverend Mbaka's voice* Goodluck Jonathan should honorably resign!

if he dare do that, the kind flogging mama piss and tompolo will unleash on him will be unimaginable.

See him in the pix at Ijebu Ode at AWUJALE palace, looking downcast and dejected.

He knows he is out and gone for the good and betterment of Nigeria.

Imagine the stress and waste he is made to go through to go kneeling and begging every oba and pastor in the SW to get their favour.

Splashme:
[size=14pt]All these Lagos based foreign journalists sample Opinions from brainwashed Lagosians combined with pro-APC media and propaganda.

Lagos is not Nigeria [/size]

I really wish JonaTAN shares your belief and optimism.

You're consoling yourself saying Lagos is not Nigeria yet the ACTOR in the plot keeps running to the same Lagos and SW kneeling, begging and rolling on the floor for every tom, dick and harry to prevent the ridicule and embarrassment he is going to suffer.

Why not call them in ASO ROCK and tell him not to return to Lagos again. 6times in 1 months is enough time to beg.

pendy79:
A local think tank, the Center for Public Policy Alternatives, gives Buhari a 58% to 32% lead in Lagos state, where Jonathan won the last election. Eurasia Group thinks Jonathan’s approval rating is below the 40% threshold under which incumbents have a hard time getting reelected.

Could the local think thank be a Nigerian set up by the oyinbo AKPD Media consultants that have been busy packaging the "expired" old soldier


Garbage In, Garbage Out- GIGO.

Believe APC propaganda at your own personal risk & peril!




www.nairaland.com/attachments/2196652_2192613img20150308wa0022jpeg01d2abf99c3dde19432e34d0ef297c64_jpeg_jpeg08307746a74cf7c65e51b0aba2ff242d




www.nairaland.com/attachments/2197141_fashbuhari2_jpeg8a44400e4f79810a132d53c499b6010b

Reciting that buhari will win is not changing the fact that come march 28, he would lose the presidential election for the fourth consecutive time.

pendy79:
The Yorubas he called RASCALS are now his BELOVED KINGMAKERS

You obviously have comprehension problems.

If not show us where Jonathan called yorubas rascals as you allege

He said at Mapo Hall Ibadan in 2011 that the South west is TOO IMPORTANT to be left in the hands of rascals.

Surely a drug lord who forfeited $460,000 to pay off his crime to the US authorities and has grown from begging food from his running mate in 1999 and squatting in Gbenga Daniel's Kresta Laurel office to our colonial master who owns everything is a rascal, not so




www.nairaland.com/attachments/2080663_olee_jpeg50ac2c9e26795655ae17af1287062b25

anonimi:


Could the local think thank be a Nigerian set up by the oyinbo AKPD Media consultants that have been busy packaging the "expired" old soldier


Garbage In, Garbage Out- GIGO.

Believe APC propaganda ta your own personal risk & peril!

I'm sure your AKPD organized the POLL on AIT and the one done by RENO OMOKRI the Presidential aide too.

Even Keshi will make noise and boast wildly before a football MATCH with BRAZIL but after the final whistle reality sets in and tears and anguish follows.

who doesn't know GMB will be the NEXT PRESIDENT OF NIGERIA.
Why do you think GEJ has turned Lagos to his bedroom in the last one month, did he receive report SHEKAU dey Marina ni?

pendy79:
I'm sure your AKPD organized the POLL on AIT and the one done by RENO OMOKRI the Presidential aide too.

Even Keshi will make noise and boast wildly before a football MATCH with BRAZIL but after the final whistle reality sets in and tears and anguish follows.

who doesn't know GMB will be the NEXT PRESIDENT OF NIGERIA.
Why do you think GEJ has turned Lagos to his bedroom in the last one month, did he receive report SHEKAU dey Marina ni?

Muazu has answered you properly =>

PDP is my home, good luck to propagandists—Muazu

The Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Adamu Muazu, has said that the party is his home and will never leave it, following rumour of a rift between him and President Goodluck Jonathan.

Muazu took to his verified Twitter account, to debunk the rumour and reiterated his loyalty to the party and the president. The tweets were also signed by him (#AM) to underscore the importance.

The former governor of Bauchi, noted that he has remained in the party since its formative stage in 1998 and will not leave it for a regional, sectional or ethnic party.

He also wished the oppositions "goodluck in the propaganda business", stressing that the PDP has an election to win.


More from: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/03/pdp-is-my-home-good-luck-to-propagandists-muazu/

anonimi:


You obviously have comprehension problems.

If not show us where Jonathan called yorubas rascals as you allege

He said at Mapo Hall Ibadan in 2011 that the South west is TOO IMPORTANT to be left in the hands of rascals.

Surely a drug lord who forfeited $460,000 to pay off his crime to the US authorities and has grown from begging food from his running mate in 1999 and squatting in Gbenga Daniel's Kresta Laurel office to our colonial master who owns everything is a rascal, not so

A Former Treasurer Mobil Producing Unlimited International begging for food in your Imagination shows how illogical you reason.

Tinubu bankrolled 80% of all NADECO activities yet you assume he will be a squatter? use your head at times.

A man forfeits $460,000 using your own figure to pay off CONVERT $460,000 TO naira AND THINK IF ANYONE IN YOUR VILLAGE COULD MATCH THAT.

Stop all this your foolish rants. Tinubu wasn't mention in this thread is he?

If you have problem with tinubu go to AIT or NTA