Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by Sunnybobo3(m): 1:49am On Mar 19, 2015 |
eliment: I was so socked yesterday when a PDP supporter admitted Buhari will win if election holds.
Even the PDP knows GEJ has no chance of winning if the elections will be free, fear and credible.
Change in coming__ sai Buhari Keep dreaming. Come March 28, you guys will find out that elections are not won on social media. 1 Like |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by abduljabbar4(m): 1:51am On Mar 19, 2015 |
bakila: The book biggest challenge to this is the possibility of credible candidates in other political parties in the North affecting APC 's votes. Your permutations is right except to the extent that you make Benue a GEJ State. Benue is at best a swing state. This is not 2011. We don't have any popular political party other than pdp and APC |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by buharisambisada: 1:57am On Mar 19, 2015 |
Foolish write up just to suit your messed up brains this is how it goes and GOODLUCK JONATHAN WINS.
1 ABIA 1,396,162 1,177,520 GEJ 2 ADAMAWA 1,559,012 1,381,571 shared votes 3 AKWA-IBOM 1,680,759 1,587,566 GEJ 4 ANAMBRA 1,963,173 1,658,967 GEJ 5 BAUCHI 2,054,125 1,778,380 SHARED VOTES 6 BAYELSA 610,373 546,372 GEJ 7 BENUE 2,015,452 1,607,800 GEJ 8 BORNO 1,934,079 1,407,777 BUHARI 9 CROSS RIVER 1,175,623 963,929 GEJ 10 DELTA 2,275,264 1,921,627 GEJ 11 EBONYI 1,074,273 848,392 GEJ 12 EDO 1,779,738 1,218,734 GEJ 13 EKITI 732,021 511,790 GEJ 14 ENUGU 1,429,221 1,223,606 GEJ 15 FCT 881,472 569,109 GEJ 16 GOMBE 1,120,023 1,069,635 SHARED VOTES 17 IMO 1,803,030 1,707,449 GEJ 18 JIGAWA 1,831,276 1,756,320 SHARED VOTES 19 KADUNA 3,407,222 3,174,519 SHARED VOTES 20 KANO 4,975,701 4,112,039 SHARED VOTES 21 KATSINA 2,827,943 2,620,096 SHARED VOTES 22 KEBBI 1,470,648 1,372,630 SHARED VOTES 23 KOGI 1,350,883 926,013 SHARED VOTES 24 KWARA 1,142,267 884,996 SHARED VOTED 25 LAGOS 5,822,207 3,767,647 SHARED VOTED 26 NASARAWA 1,242,667 1,048,053 GEJ PDP 27 NIGER 2,014,317 1,682,058 SHARED VOTES 28 OGUN 1,829,534 904,647 GEJ 29 ONDO 1,524,655 1,110,844 GEJ 30 OSUN 1,407,107 1,030,051 SHARED VOTES 31 OYO 2,415,566 1,639,967 SHARED VOTES 32 PLATEAU 2,001,825 1,508,585 GEJ 33 RIVERS 2,537,590 2,127,837 GEJ 34 SOKOTO 1,611,929 1,527,004 SHARED VOTES 35 TARABA 1,340,652 1,270,889 GEJ 36 YOBE 1,099,970 824,401 SHARED VOTES 37 ZAMFARA 1,495,717 1,435,452 SHARED VOTES Total 68,833,476 55,904,272
GEJ WINS WITH 26 TWENTY SIX MILLIONS FOUR HUNDRED AND SEVENTY FIVE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED AND EIGHTY SEVEN VOTES |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by abduljabbar4(m): 1:57am On Mar 19, 2015 |
PapaBrowne: The problem with your analysis is in the error of your assumptions.
First error is in placing Kaduna, Adamawa and Nasarawa firmly under Buhari. Thats an apparent sign that you aren't in tune with Northern politics. You would have had a better analysis if you used historical data to support you postulations. Kaduna is the best definition of a swing state. Two factors would count for GEJ: 1)Southern Kaduna. 2)The VP & the incumbent. In 2011, Kaduna gave GEJ 1.2m and GMB 1.3m. So lumping Kaduna in the same mould as Kano, Bauchi, Borno and the likes is an error already. Nasarawa has an APC governor, but would have a PDP victory because of the Ethno Religious politics present in the state. Adamawa would be pretty close to call but a greater likelihood the PDP would hold sway.
Second error is in your swing states assumption. Edo & Taraba. Edo is safe, very safe for PDP. In 2011, PDP won by a wide margin. At that time, Oshiomole was very popular. In 2015, Oshiomole has become so unpopular that he would lose an today to even to the very unpopular Igbinedion. So while Edo north would give Buhari some votes, majority of the votes would definitely go to PDP. Taraba is PDP and would give GEJ better margins than any state in the SW.
The best statistical analysis would come from lumping states with similar voting patterns together and according them percentage weights. Better still, do a state by state run and award percentages based on both historical data and current realities. No no no no no no no no no no no no bo Let me just tell you. Go to zaria, where Namadi and mukhtar Ramalan yero come from, I swear you will be suprised. They don't like them at all. As for southern Kaduna, you are right last year most of them supported GEJ but now go there and witness CHANGE OF MIND. We the people of kaduna will all vote for baba Buhari 2 Likes |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by abduljabbar4(m): 2:11am On Mar 19, 2015 |
PapaBrowne:
Hehe, you are funny!! First I'm from Edo state and not only do I visit the cities regularly I engage with ruralites there a lot in the course of my work. Jonathan would do better in Edo state than he would do in parts of Delta. Right now, Edo state hates APC more than PDP. Oshiomole's second tenure has been a gigantic disaster. Nothing, I repeat absolutely nothing is currently happening and the APC is in disarray in Edo state. Maybe you didn't notice but the only state Buhari didn't hold a rally in the entire country was Edo State. Edo North muslims would give Buhari some votes but the population there is the smallest in the state: less than 10%. Its going to be more like 70:30 in favour of Jonathan.
As per Southern Kaduna, your ignorance again is explicit. Igbos are not the majority inhabitants of Southern Kaduna state. Yes, a lot of Igbos dwell in the south of Kaduna city, but that is different from southern Kaduna state which constitutes almost half the population of the state and is dominated by Christians. Southern Kaduna will vote in the same pattern as Plateau and Taraba as these are the states where religious tensions are strongest. I'm from kaduna state and I am telling you that even though southern Kaduna didn't like Buhari last year, they have now learnt their lessons. They have suffered the bomb blasts. The fake promises. Come and see for yourself. I swear they don't like pdp at all 3 Likes |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by abduljabbar4(m): 2:15am On Mar 19, 2015 |
PapaBrowne:
The bolded exposed the degree of your ignorance on Northern politics. Just to let you know, Northern Christians are much more likely to vote Jonathan than Niger Deltans. And the reason is not thier love for Jonathan but thier hatred for Fulani domination! Don't forget naira value, corruption, fake promises and the rest. It will also cost Gej a lot of votes like mine. I wanted to vote for him at first even though I voted for Buhari last year 1 Like |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by PapaBrowne(m): 2:20am On Mar 19, 2015 |
abduljabbar4:
I'm from kaduna state and I am telling you that even though southern Kaduna didn't like Buhari last year, they have now learnt their lessons. They have suffered the bomb blasts. The fake promises. Come and see for yourself. I swear they don't like pdp at all You dont seem to understand the mindset of your southern Kaduna neighbors. Its not about Jonathan for them, its about handing back power to what they see as their oppressors. Funnily and you might not know this, in the same way many Northern muslims see Jonathan as responsible for Boko Haram, many northern Christians(much more than southern christians) see Buhari as a supprter of Boko Haram. Its just the sad dynamics that have enveloped our politics. I genuinely wish Nigeria can get over this ethno religious voting patterns. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by abduljabbar4(m): 2:32am On Mar 19, 2015 |
PapaBrowne:
You dont seem to understand the mindset of your southern Kaduna neighbors. Its not about Jonathan for them, its about handing back power to what they see as their oppressors. Funnily and you might not know this, in the same way many Northern muslims see Jonathan as responsible for Boko Haram, many northern Christians(much more than southern christians) see Buhari as a supprter of Boko Haram. Its just the sad dynamics that have enveloped our politics. I genuinely wish Nigeria can get over this ethno religious voting patterns. How I wish you would come and see for yourself. I hate arguments. Trust me. I saw how they were supporting GEJ in 2011 and I'm seeing how they are supporting Buhari. I can't talk about other nothern states but in kaduna I'm very sure of whatever I say |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by ujoinme: 2:43am On Mar 19, 2015 |
mandarin: http://www.inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/REPORT-ON-PVC-COLLECTIONS-March-12-NET.xlsx
1 ABIA 1,396,162 1,177,520 2 ADAMAWA 1,559,012 1,381,571 3 AKWA-IBOM 1,680,759 1,587,566 4 ANAMBRA 1,963,173 1,658,967 5 BAUCHI 2,054,125 1,778,380 6 BAYELSA 610,373 546,372 7 BENUE 2,015,452 1,607,800 8 BORNO 1,934,079 1,407,777 9 CROSS RIVER 1,175,623 963,929 10 DELTA 2,275,264 1,921,627 11 EBONYI 1,074,273 848,392 12 EDO 1,779,738 1,218,734 13 EKITI 732,021 511,790 14 ENUGU 1,429,221 1,223,606 15 FCT 881,472 569,109 16 GOMBE 1,120,023 1,069,635 17 IMO 1,803,030 1,707,449 18 JIGAWA 1,831,276 1,756,320 19 KADUNA 3,407,222 3,174,519 20 KANO 4,975,701 4,112,039 21 KATSINA 2,827,943 2,620,096 22 KEBBI 1,470,648 1,372,630 23 KOGI 1,350,883 926,013 24 KWARA 1,142,267 884,996 25 LAGOS 5,822,207 3,767,647 26 NASARAWA 1,242,667 1,048,053 27 NIGER 2,014,317 1,682,058 28 OGUN 1,829,534 904,647 29 ONDO 1,524,655 1,110,844 30 OSUN 1,407,107 1,030,051 31 OYO 2,415,566 1,639,967 32 PLATEAU 2,001,825 1,508,585 33 RIVERS 2,537,590 2,127,837 34 SOKOTO 1,611,929 1,527,004 35 TARABA 1,340,652 1,270,889 36 YOBE 1,099,970 824,401 37 ZAMFARA 1,495,717 1,435,452 Total 68,833,476 55,904,272
I have been looking at the possible case scenario that can happen at the coming Presidential election next week based on the available data released by INEC as at 12th March 2015. In all, 55,904,272 registered voters have collected their PVCs and let's look at some possibilities: Lets take 80% voters' turnout across board which means we will take available figures as absolute voters per state although i foresee high, moderate and fair turn out across the states.
First : States according to the strength of each candidate - This is a general knowledge that ether candidates of PDP and the APC has their traditional states where they are strong and will capture at least 75% of votes cast.
JONATHAN 1. ABIA-1, 177,520 2. ENUGU-1,223,606 3. ANAMBRA -1,658,967 4. EBONYI - 848,392 5. IMO -1,707,449 6. RIVERS - 2,127,837 7. CROSS RIVER- 963,929 8. AKWA IBOM-1,587,566 9. BAYELSA-546,372 10. DELTA- 1,921627 11. BENUE- 1,607,800 12. 1,508,585 TOTAL - 16,879,650
BUHARI 1. SOKOTO-1,527,004 2. ZAMFARA- 1,435,452 3. KEBBI - 1,372,630 4. KATSINA- 2,620,096 5. NIGER- 1,682,058 6. KADUNA- 3,174,519 7. JIGAWA- 1,756,320 8. YOBE - 824,401 9. BORNO - 1,407,777 10. ADAMAWA- 1,381,571 11. BAUCHI-1,778,380 12. GOMBE - 1,069,635 13. NASARAWA-1,048,053 14. KANO- 4,112,039 15. KWARA - 884,996 TOTAL -26,074,931
SOME SOUTHWEST STATES 1. LAGOS - 3,767,647 2. OGUN - 904,647 3. OSUN - 1,030,051 4. OYO- 1,639,967 TOTAL - 7,342,312
SWING STATES 1. EDO -1,218,734 2. EKITI - 511,790 3. ONDO - 1,110,844 4. TARABA - 1,270,889 5. FCT - 569,109 6. KOGI - 926,013 TOTAL - 5,607,379
I have grouped these states according to the strength of each candidate. Now, many people will argue on these swing states but believe me both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses there which may compensate for each other. I will freeze some political factors and look at scenarios with these figures to see some possibilities. 1. if equal turn out is achieved across all states and voters vote according to strength of each candidate AND LETS SAY THE SWING STATES ARE SHARED 50% each include some southwest states as indicated above:
JONATHAN WINS = 16,879,650 + 3,671,156+2,803,689.5 = 23,354,495.5 BUHARI WINS = 26,074,931+3,671,156+2,803,689.5 = 32,549,776.5 VERDICT : BUHARI WINS outrightly
2. Supposing Jonathan has 25% of votes cast in Buhari's strong holds and Buhari has 10% in Jonathan's strongholds while Buhari wins 60% in some Southwest states and both share swing states 50-50 :
JONATHAN WINS =6,518,732.75+15,191, 685+2,936,934.8+2,803,689.5 = 27,451,042.05 BUHARI WINS = 19,556,198.25+1,687,965.5+4,405,387.2+2,803,689.5 = 28,453,240.45 BUHARI WINS by slim margin
3. Supposing Buhari wins 85% of votes cast in his strong areas, Jonathan win 90% in his own, Jonathan win majority in swing states say 60% and BUHARI wins 70% in some southwest states : JONATHAN WINS = 3,911,239.65+15,191,685+3,364,427.4+2,202,693.6 = 24,670,045.65 BUHARI WINS = 31,234,226.35
A whole lots of scenario modeling can be done by you but realistically. If based on factors that can influence this election we can give 1. Buhari strong areas = between 80-90% of votes cast 2. Jonathan strong areas returning between 75-90% votes cast 3. Buhari wins at least 50% in some southwest states(realistically, he wont get less than 60%) of all votes cast 4. Jonathan and Buhari share swing states 50-50( Note, its not certain if Fayose's influence in Ekiti will matter, if it does, Jonathan wins but the total voting population is not sufficient to upturn results as Buhari is popular in Kogi and Taraba)
Low registration and PVC collection is not good for GEJ as pattern revealed Northerners can always endure long hours to vote unlike in the south where many wont do such thing. Another factor is Lagos. THERE IS A STRONG INDICATION THAT OVER A MILLION PEOPLE MAY NOT VOTE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS 1. Some of registered voter actually registered close to their places of work and this affect a huge population of those that dwell in the outskirt towns of Ogun state 2. This is similarly going to affect alot of Igbo voters that registered close to their shops if they live far away means they wont be able to also vote. 3. Many Lagosians may not just vote anticipating violence or just indifference, sitting at home and watching television, this is where those who mobilized for registration in 2011 will likely have more votes. Let me stop and read comments
Keep calculating and analysing, Eye go clear you and APC when GEJ wins the election including most of the Northern states on March 28, While APC is busy campaigning on newspapers and on online platform, PDP is busy campaigning in the 774 LGA and wards doing the needful. Victory belong to hard workers not noise makers. 1 Like 1 Share |
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Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by nabiz(m): 5:23am On Mar 19, 2015 |
Pls consider party loyalist in ur analysis |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by poundlander: 6:58am On Mar 19, 2015 |
this thread is definitely front page-bound. make i book. |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by poundlander: 7:03am On Mar 19, 2015 |
ujoinme:
Keep calculating and analysing, Eye go clear you and APC when GEJ wins the election including most of the Northern states on March 28, While APC is busy campaigning on newspapers and on online platform, PDP is busy campaigning in the 774 LGA and wards doing the needful. Victory belong to hard workers not noise makers. for your mind abi? today Buhari is having a town hall meeting, the other day Osibanjo is having a one-on-one meeting with community leaders, the next day Aisha Buhari and Osibanjo wife are touring the states to meet with their female colleagues. Fashola never cease campaigning for GMB in Lagos and you said they are not campaigning enough. if the opposition can do the above with the little time, i think they have tried enough. VICTORIA ASCERTA. SAI CHANGI 3 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by MCMLXXVI(m): 7:27am On Mar 19, 2015 |
mandarin: http://www.inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/REPORT-ON-PVC-COLLECTIONS-March-12-NET.xlsx
1 ABIA 1,396,162 1,177,520 2 ADAMAWA 1,559,012 1,381,571 3 AKWA-IBOM 1,680,759 1,587,566 4 ANAMBRA 1,963,173 1,658,967 5 BAUCHI 2,054,125 1,778,380 6 BAYELSA 610,373 546,372 7 BENUE 2,015,452 1,607,800 8 BORNO 1,934,079 1,407,777 9 CROSS RIVER 1,175,623 963,929 10 DELTA 2,275,264 1,921,627 11 EBONYI 1,074,273 848,392 12 EDO 1,779,738 1,218,734 13 EKITI 732,021 511,790 14 ENUGU 1,429,221 1,223,606 15 FCT 881,472 569,109 16 GOMBE 1,120,023 1,069,635 17 IMO 1,803,030 1,707,449 18 JIGAWA 1,831,276 1,756,320 19 KADUNA 3,407,222 3,174,519 20 KANO 4,975,701 4,112,039 21 KATSINA 2,827,943 2,620,096 22 KEBBI 1,470,648 1,372,630 23 KOGI 1,350,883 926,013 24 KWARA 1,142,267 884,996 25 LAGOS 5,822,207 3,767,647 26 NASARAWA 1,242,667 1,048,053 27 NIGER 2,014,317 1,682,058 28 OGUN 1,829,534 904,647 29 ONDO 1,524,655 1,110,844 30 OSUN 1,407,107 1,030,051 31 OYO 2,415,566 1,639,967 32 PLATEAU 2,001,825 1,508,585 33 RIVERS 2,537,590 2,127,837 34 SOKOTO 1,611,929 1,527,004 35 TARABA 1,340,652 1,270,889 36 YOBE 1,099,970 824,401 37 ZAMFARA 1,495,717 1,435,452 Total 68,833,476 55,904,272
I have been looking at the possible case scenario that can happen at the coming Presidential election next week based on the available data released by INEC as at 12th March 2015. In all, 55,904,272 registered voters have collected their PVCs and let's look at some possibilities: Lets take 80% voters' turnout across board which means we will take available figures as absolute voters per state although i foresee high, moderate and fair turn out across the states.
First : States according to the strength of each candidate - This is a general knowledge that ether candidates of PDP and the APC has their traditional states where they are strong and will capture at least 75% of votes cast.
JONATHAN 1. ABIA-1, 177,520 2. ENUGU-1,223,606 3. ANAMBRA -1,658,967 4. EBONYI - 848,392 5. IMO -1,707,449 6. RIVERS - 2,127,837 7. CROSS RIVER- 963,929 8. AKWA IBOM-1,587,566 9. BAYELSA-546,372 10. DELTA- 1,921627 11. BENUE- 1,607,800 12. 1,508,585 TOTAL - 16,879,650
BUHARI 1. SOKOTO-1,527,004 2. ZAMFARA- 1,435,452 3. KEBBI - 1,372,630 4. KATSINA- 2,620,096 5. NIGER- 1,682,058 6. KADUNA- 3,174,519 7. JIGAWA- 1,756,320 8. YOBE - 824,401 9. BORNO - 1,407,777 10. ADAMAWA- 1,381,571 11. BAUCHI-1,778,380 12. GOMBE - 1,069,635 13. NASARAWA-1,048,053 14. KANO- 4,112,039 15. KWARA - 884,996 TOTAL -26,074,931
SOME SOUTHWEST STATES 1. LAGOS - 3,767,647 2. OGUN - 904,647 3. OSUN - 1,030,051 4. OYO- 1,639,967 TOTAL - 7,342,312
SWING STATES 1. EDO -1,218,734 2. EKITI - 511,790 3. ONDO - 1,110,844 4. TARABA - 1,270,889 5. FCT - 569,109 6. KOGI - 926,013 TOTAL - 5,607,379
I have grouped these states according to the strength of each candidate. Now, many people will argue on these swing states but believe me both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses there which may compensate for each other. I will freeze some political factors and look at scenarios with these figures to see some possibilities. 1. if equal turn out is achieved across all states and voters vote according to strength of each candidate AND LETS SAY THE SWING STATES ARE SHARED 50% each include some southwest states as indicated above:
JONATHAN WINS = 16,879,650 + 3,671,156+2,803,689.5 = 23,354,495.5 BUHARI WINS = 26,074,931+3,671,156+2,803,689.5 = 32,549,776.5 VERDICT : BUHARI WINS outrightly
2. Supposing Jonathan has 25% of votes cast in Buhari's strong holds and Buhari has 10% in Jonathan's strongholds while Buhari wins 60% in some Southwest states and both share swing states 50-50 :
JONATHAN WINS =6,518,732.75+15,191, 685+2,936,934.8+2,803,689.5 = 27,451,042.05 BUHARI WINS = 19,556,198.25+1,687,965.5+4,405,387.2+2,803,689.5 = 28,453,240.45 BUHARI WINS by slim margin
3. Supposing Buhari wins 85% of votes cast in his strong areas, Jonathan win 90% in his own, Jonathan win majority in swing states say 60% and BUHARI wins 70% in some southwest states : JONATHAN WINS = 3,911,239.65+15,191,685+3,364,427.4+2,202,693.6 = 24,670,045.65 BUHARI WINS = 31,234,226.35
A whole lots of scenario modeling can be done by you but realistically. If based on factors that can influence this election we can give 1. Buhari strong areas = between 80-90% of votes cast 2. Jonathan strong areas returning between 75-90% votes cast 3. Buhari wins at least 50% in some southwest states(realistically, he wont get less than 60%) of all votes cast 4. Jonathan and Buhari share swing states 50-50( Note, its not certain if Fayose's influence in Ekiti will matter, if it does, Jonathan wins but the total voting population is not sufficient to upturn results as Buhari is popular in Kogi and Taraba)
Low registration and PVC collection is not good for GEJ as pattern revealed Northerners can always endure long hours to vote unlike in the south where many wont do such thing. Another factor is Lagos. THERE IS A STRONG INDICATION THAT OVER A MILLION PEOPLE MAY NOT VOTE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS 1. Some of registered voter actually registered close to their places of work and this affect a huge population of those that dwell in the outskirt towns of Ogun state 2. This is similarly going to affect alot of Igbo voters that registered close to their shops if they live far away means they wont be able to also vote. 3. Many Lagosians may not just vote anticipating violence or just indifference, sitting at home and watching television, this is where those who mobilized for registration in 2011 will likely have more votes. Let me stop and read comments
Mr OP, in all your wisdom, you failed to include Plateau state in the final analysis. Was that a deliberate omission? Another part that has me laughing out loud is the assumption that Buhari will win 10 percent in any of the GEJ strongholds. Places like where exactly? Akwa Ibom? Imo State? Anambra? The south east? The same South East where Buhari scored 0.16 percent the last time? LMAO! These people must really think their South West propaganda is given any audience in the East. Anyway, it's still okay to dream. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by MCMLXXVI(m): 7:29am On Mar 19, 2015 |
He even included the anti-Muslim Taraba State as one of his "swing states"! Oh my days! LMAO!!! 1 Like |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by stronger: 7:30am On Mar 19, 2015 |
PapaBrowne:
Hehe, you are funny!! First I'm from Edo state and not only do I visit the cities regularly I engage with ruralites there a lot in the course of my work. Jonathan would do better in Edo state than he would do in parts of Delta. Right now, Edo state hates APC more than PDP. Oshiomole's second tenure has been a gigantic disaster. Nothing, I repeat absolutely nothing is currently happening and the APC is in disarray in Edo state. Maybe you didn't notice but the only state Buhari didn't hold a rally in the entire country was Edo State. Edo North muslims would give Buhari some votes but the population there is the smallest in the state: less than 10%. Its going to be more like 70:30 in favour of Jonathan.
As per Southern Kaduna, your ignorance again is explicit. Igbos are not the majority inhabitants of Southern Kaduna state. [/b]Yes, a lot of Igbos dwell in the south of Kaduna city, but that is different from southern Kaduna state which constitutes almost half the population of the state and is dominated by Christians. Southern Kaduna will vote in the same pattern as Plateau and Taraba as these are the states where religious tensions are strongest. [b]EDO STATE HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. . . CHEI!!! You just fell my hand! Did you say you are from Edo state? Okay, let me point out some of your lies/inaccuracies/ignorance (1) You said Buhari didn't do an Edo state Rally! The Edo state rally was THE BIGGEST RALLY, next to the Rivers rally! That was the popular rally that they had a money dressed in PDP costume! Chai, you just fell my hand. Oya see pictures - - http://dailymail.com.ng/photos-buhariosinbajo-apc-2015-campaign-in-edo-state/http://www.naij.com/375105-edo-state-receives-general-buharis-team.htmlCan you see that it was huge? You don't really visit Edo that much do you? Oya be a man of honour, come back and admit your goof! (2) You said the muslim population is less than 10%. . lol.. . False! I don't have a link for that but anyone who knows Edo well will easily disprove that. Let me leave that there. Now you claim APC is hated more than PDP. Oya please carry out this exercise; Go to the market square and shout: Long live Lucky igbinedion and aneneih!! Then the next day shout: Long live Oshio babaFind out the one that will incur more wrath! You also neglect the enormous goodwill that Oyegun, the APC National chairman enjoys! Haven't you noticed that in spite of the PDP campaign of calumny, they haven't been able to touch Oyegun (and Osibanjo)? check it out na. That man is well liked and is a solid grassroots man (former governor) so he will play a part! I don't want to reveal much on why I know so much about Edo politics, but I have presented the facts to you. But I am still willing to leave it as a swing state like the intelligent OP did. We Pro-GMB folks always try to be realistic (eg Ekiti) but you guys tend to over believe in magic! I dey laugh o. KADUNA STATEYour response to this was even more hilarious I think you may have mistaken my response for another commentator. Nowhere did I mention anything about Igbos. But you neglected everything I said about; (1) The empty stadium at the rally (2) Sambo's UNPOPULARITY (3) EL-RUFAI'S Popularity (4) The Agwai effect. And you say my ignorance is explicit? I see you mentioned Kaduna christians. You must know that one of the most strategic moves the APC made was to choose PROFESSOR PASTOR OSIBANJO as the VP candidate! I doff my heart for that move. Jonathan was reported to have described it as " Osinbajo is my problem". That move singularly neutralised any SW/christian support for GEJ! pastor Adeboye is practically the most influencial and respected MOG in Nigeria/Africa. He described Osibanjo as "Someone you can give a job to do and go to sleep"!! And you think Kaduna christians won't remember that? You think they will instead vote for a "Christian" that has been running to obas and using OPC (With their jazz) to intimidate? Anyway, please address the points I made and please please admit your goof about the Edo rally! 1 Like |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by bakila: 7:55am On Mar 19, 2015 |
abduljabbar4:
This is not 2011. We don't have any popular political party other than pdp and APC In states like Taraba and Adamawa some formidable candidates have emerged from SDP and PDM, there supporters may abstain from the Presidential elections although PDM has adopted Buhari as their candidates. |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by maestroferddi: 8:06am On Mar 19, 2015 |
eliment: stop deceiving your self mister man, the handwriting is on the wall for everyone to see except those that want to be deceived by whatever sentiment.
That you are part of them is none of my business, all I need is power be taken away from this clueless man I don't waste my time bandying issues with impressionable teenagers... |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by Nobody: 8:14am On Mar 19, 2015 |
maestroferddi: I don't waste my time bandying issues with impressionable teenagers... I am much older than your brother stop giving the impression that the PDP DNA of lack of issues and personal attack runs in you |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by maestroferddi: 8:36am On Mar 19, 2015 |
PapaBrowne:
Hehe, you are funny!! First I'm from Edo state and not only do I visit the cities regularly I engage with ruralites there a lot in the course of my work. Jonathan would do better in Edo state than he would do in parts of Delta. Right now, Edo state hates APC more than PDP. Oshiomole's second tenure has been a gigantic disaster. Nothing, I repeat absolutely nothing is currently happening and the APC is in disarray in Edo state. Maybe you didn't notice but the only state Buhari didn't hold a rally in the entire country was Edo State. Edo North muslims would give Buhari some votes but the population there is the smallest in the state: less than 10%. Its going to be more like 70:30 in favour of Jonathan.
As per Southern Kaduna, your ignorance again is explicit. Igbos are not the majority inhabitants of Southern Kaduna state. Yes, a lot of Igbos dwell in the south of Kaduna city, but that is different from southern Kaduna state which constitutes almost half the population of the state and is dominated by Christians. Southern Kaduna will vote in the same pattern as Plateau and Taraba as these are the states where religious tensions are strongest. This "otondo" OP probably has a degree in tomfoolery. He was presupposing that Jonathan wouldn't do well in Kaduna because he fired Agwai at Sure-P. You may have to ask him which part of Kaduna does the replacement of Agwai hails from? He probably does not know that most political leaders in Kaduna are in the PDP. He will need to tell us which leader in Kaduna can match Ahmed Makarfi (ex-governor, fourth-time senator and one of the most active senators) in popularity. He also doesn't know that Sen Esther Nemadi, Andrew Yakubu are Kaduna indigenes. He is premising his laughable calls on the excision of Agwai who at best is a settler in Southern Kaduna. The most ridiculous has to be the assumption that Namadi Sambo has no clout in Kaduna politics. Our statistician is obviously carried away by the noises El-Rufai, a settler or non-Kaduna indigene is making. He forgot that Ramalan Yero is a sitting governor. I will leave the case of the sizable non-indegenous population for another day... 2 Likes |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by mandarin: 8:41am On Mar 19, 2015 |
PapaBrowne:
You dont seem to understand the mindset of your southern Kaduna neighbors. Its not about Jonathan for them, its about handing back power to what they see as their oppressors. Funnily and you might not know this, in the same way many Northern muslims see Jonathan as responsible for Boko Haram, many northern Christians(much more than southern christians) see Buhari as a supprter of Boko Haram. Its just the sad dynamics that have enveloped our politics. I genuinely wish Nigeria can get over this ethno religious voting patterns. Thank you. I know someone whose family lost 14 children in the Chibok adoption, remember we are still praying for their return. Ask the displaced folks and understand their feelings, its more of their government failure to protect them until the late hour when thousands of lives have been lost. Religion in the equation is valid but will shockingly come as a no factor in Kaduna.Am telling you that these assumptions are pure academic and I want intelligent criticism. I understand the concern of people over Taraba,Nasarawa and Plateau, its important people who do not have any stake will just permutate. |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by maestroferddi: 8:48am On Mar 19, 2015 |
dmyke: Can't see Jonathan getting less than 90% of the votes in the SE (at least I'm pretty sure about Anambra). Even APC candidates for the National Assembly do not mention the name of Buhari when they hold their rallies.
Meanwhile, it seems the op is not really familiar with Northern Politics. The NW is very different from the NE, not to talk of NC. It shouldn't surprise anyone if Jonathan gets the majority of the votes in the NC. Comedians on the loose! If you ask them to call the South East, they would tell you that Rochas will give Buhari 25% in Imo while Ngige will get something for Buhari in Anambra. I enjoy the laugh. I daresay that Buhari/APC is an anathema in Igboland. Even Rochas is not sure of re-election. I am from Orlu zone in Imo State. I can tell you that if political leaders, 95 % of whom are in the PDP decide to unite against Rochas, he will collapse big time. His repugnant style of governance is an issue in the state. He might win but not by a wide margin. Buhari won't get above 5% in the entire South East. |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by mandarin: 8:49am On Mar 19, 2015 |
maestroferddi: This "otondo" probably has a degree in tomfoolery.
He was presupposing that Jonathan wouldn't do well in Kaduna because he fired a Agwai at Sure-P.
You may have to ask him which part of Kaduna does the replacement of Agwai hail from?
He probably does not know that most political leaders in Kaduna are in the PDP. He will need to tell us which leader in Kaduna can match Ahmed Makarfi (ex-governor, fourth-time senator and one of the most active senators) in popularity. He also doesn't know that Sen Esther Nemadi, Andrew Yakubu are Kaduna indigenes.
He is premising his laughable calls on the excision of Agwai who at best is a settler in Southern Kaduna.
The most ridiculous has to be the assumption that Namadi Sambo has no clout in Kaduna politics. Our statistician is obviously carried away by the noises El-Rufai, a settler or non-Kaduna indigene is making. He forgot that Ramalan Yero is a sitting governor.
I will leave the case of the sizable non-indegenous population for another day... Thanks, the same Andrew Yakubu that served in NNPC or another.The man who knew of the mismagement at the NNPC and what wrongfully removed.That's for another day. Esther Nenadi that was denied by women group in her open declaration for GEJ. I don't want to join issues with politicians but just doing an academic pursuit. I want a state by state criticism and will listen to all reasonable permutations. Where is Barcanista? laughs, thanks guy, this is an objective analysis and I have evn toned it down. |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by maestroferddi: 8:56am On Mar 19, 2015 |
abduljabbar4:
Don't forget naira value, corruption, fake promises and the rest. It will also cost Gej a lot of votes like mine. I wanted to vote for him at first even though I voted for Buhari last year Oga Kaduna omo nile, how do you explain the anti-Fulani sentiment in Southern Kaduna occasioned by the massive killing of kataf and southern Kaduna natives by Fulani herdsmen? You guys amuse me... 1 Like 1 Share |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by maestroferddi: 9:01am On Mar 19, 2015 |
ujoinme:
Keep calculating and analysing, Eye go clear you and APC when GEJ wins the election including most of the Northern states on March 28, While APC is busy campaigning on newspapers and on online platform, PDP is busy campaigning in the 774 LGA and wards doing the needful. Victory belong to hard workers not noise makers. The JJC doesn't know that PDP is a machine built/engineered to win elections. Consternation awaits many... 1 Like 1 Share |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by maestroferddi: 9:17am On Mar 19, 2015 |
stronger:
EDO STATE HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. . . CHEI!!! You just fell my hand! Did you say you are from Edo state? Okay, let me point out some of your lies/inaccuracies/ignorance
(1) You said Buhari didn't do an Edo state Rally! The Edo state rally was THE BIGGEST RALLY, next to the Rivers rally! That was the popular rally that they had a money dressed in PDP costume! Chai, you just fell my hand. Oya see pictures - -
http://dailymail.com.ng/photos-buhariosinbajo-apc-2015-campaign-in-edo-state/ http://www.naij.com/375105-edo-state-receives-general-buharis-team.html
Can you see that it was huge? You don't really visit Edo that much do you? Oya be a man of honour, come back and admit your goof!
(2) You said the muslim population is less than 10%. . lol.. . False! I don't have a link for that but anyone who knows Edo well will easily disprove that. Let me leave that there.
Now you claim APC is hated more than PDP. Oya please carry out this exercise; Go to the market square and shout: Long live Lucky igbinedion and aneneih!! Then the next day shout: Long live Oshio baba
Find out the one that will incur more wrath!
You also neglect the enormous goodwill that Oyegun, the APC National chairman enjoys! Haven't you noticed that in spite of the PDP campaign of calumny, they haven't been able to touch Oyegun (and Osibanjo)? check it out na. That man is well liked and is a solid grassroots man (former governor) so he will play a part! I don't want to reveal much on why I know so much about Edo politics, but I have presented the facts to you. But I am still willing to leave it as a swing state like the intelligent OP did. We Pro-GMB folks always try to be realistic (eg Ekiti) but you guys tend to over believe in magic! I dey laugh o.
KADUNA STATE Your response to this was even more hilarious I think you may have mistaken my response for another commentator. Nowhere did I mention anything about Igbos.
But you neglected everything I said about;
(1) The empty stadium at the rally (2) Sambo's UNPOPULARITY (3) EL-RUFAI'S Popularity (4) The Agwai effect.
And you say my ignorance is explicit?
I see you mentioned Kaduna christians. You must know that one of the most strategic moves the APC made was to choose PROFESSOR PASTOR OSIBANJO as the VP candidate! I doff my heart for that move. Jonathan was reported to have described it as "Osinbajo is my problem". That move singularly neutralised any SW/christian support for GEJ! pastor Adeboye is practically the most influencial and respected MOG in Nigeria/Africa. He described Osibanjo as "Someone you can give a job to do and go to sleep"!! And you think Kaduna christians won't remember that? You think they will instead vote for a "Christian" that has been running to obas and using OPC (With their jazz) to intimidate?
Anyway, please address the points I made and please please admit your goof about the Edo rally! I will not waste precious time addressing the sundry inanities above. I will only address Edo State. From your submission, it is clear that you are not abreast with the goings-on in the state. The Oba of Benin probably epitomises epicentre of Edo politics. You may have to explain the development last week when three crown princes including the heir apparent to the Benin stool publicly (telecast on NTA and other national TVs) defected to the PDP. If there is a state that is APC in name but PDP at heart, that state is Edo. Oshiomhole knows that after his tenure that PDP will retake the state. I wouldn't want to bore readers with the groundswell of political heavyweights in Edo intent on humiliating Oshiomhole. You may know George Osagie Ize-Iyamu, bookmark the name against the trajectory of Edo politics in the near future. |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by MKO4ever(m): 9:23am On Mar 19, 2015 |
OKAY |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by ujoinme: 3:00pm On Mar 19, 2015 |
poundlander:
for your mind abi? today Buhari is having a town hall meeting, the other day Osibanjo is having a one-on-one meeting with community leaders, the next day Aisha Buhari and Osibanjo wife are touring the states to meet with their female colleagues. Fashola never cease campaigning for GMB in Lagos and you said they are not campaigning enough. if the opposition can do the above with the little time, i think they have tried enough. VICTORIA ASCERTA. SAI CHANGI Election are won on political structures not propaganda and media manipulations. PDP has strong political structures that they have painstakingly built over the past 16yrs allover the country, As we speak PDP is using its mature political structures to do the needful even in your village and ward while you and other APC goons are online screaming. Voters respond to political structure that take the campaign to the people that matter in the grassroot, not those who are screaming in the media and foreign countries that wont vote in this election. 1 Like 1 Share |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by abduljabbar4(m): 7:36pm On Mar 19, 2015 |
bakila:
In states like Taraba and Adamawa some formidable candidates have emerged from SDP and PDM, there supporters may abstain from the Presidential elections although PDM has adopted Buhari as their candidates. forget about those candidates. They won't get up to 1000 votes |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by abduljabbar4(m): 7:42pm On Mar 19, 2015 |
maestroferddi: Oga Kaduna omo nile, how do you explain the anti-Fulani sentiment in Southern Kaduna occasioned by the massive killing of kataf and southern Kaduna natives by Fulani herdsmen?
You guys amuse me... Yeah agreed but they still support Buhari. Buhari didn't send these Fulani men and they don't reason like you people. They reason with SENSE 1 Like |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by abduljabbar4(m): 7:45pm On Mar 19, 2015 |
maestroferddi: I will not waste precious time addressing the sundry inanities above.
I will only address Edo State. From your submission, it is clear that you are not abreast with the goings-on in the state.
The Oba of Benin probably epitomises epicentre of Edo politics. You may have to explain the development last week when three crown princes including the heir apparent to the Benin stool publicly (telecast on NTA and other national TVs) defected to the PDP.
If there is a state that is APC in name but PDP at heart, that state is Edo. Oshiomhole knows that after his tenure that PDP will retake the state. I wouldn't want to bore readers with the groundswell of political heavyweights in Edo intent on humiliating Oshiomhole.
You may know George Osagie Ize-Iyamu, bookmark the name against the trajectory of Edo politics in the near future. Then why did you say that Buhari didn't hold a rally in Edo? So you just felt like lying. Keep decieving yourselves |
Re: Data Analysis Of The Election...my Objective Take On Possible Scenario by maestroferddi: 7:48pm On Mar 19, 2015 |
abduljabbar4:
Yeah agreed but they still support Buhari. Buhari didn't send these Fulani men and they don't reason like you people. They reason with SENSE You are living in a fool's paradise. |